Declining affordability

Talking about the double whammy – increasing prices AND increasing interest rates.

Topic – Talking tough

Mentor – Bernice Ross

  • Turn up the pain
  • Sometimes they don’t know what they don’t know
  • Help them see the picture

Developing your leadership style – Jacob Aldridge.  This week we are looking at having the hard conversations.  Jacob adds to that skill as he talks about operating in different market conditions.


Kevin:   Joining us once again is our guest mentor this week, Bernice Ross, from Real Estate Coach Radio in the States. We’re looking at talking tough. How do you ascertain what sort of market we’re in, and how do you communicate with buyers and sellers?

Kevin:   Good morning again, Bernice. Nice to be talking to you. Let’s talk about declining affordability, turning up the pain. How do we handle that? Talk to us about that.

Bernice:   Well, one of the things that any time you’re in a market where interest rates are increasing, or where prices are increasing, then your affordability … Each time the prices kick up, obviously, becomes less affordable for … We lose a chunk of buyers with every uptick. But what we haven’t had to deal with in the States here, for 12-13 years, is increasing interest rates.

Bernice:   And most of the people I’m talking to, unless they’re an old timer with about 12 to 15 years of experience, they haven’t experienced a market with declining rates. They’ve seen it with increasing rates and declining affordability. They’re seeing their affordability issue in terms of prices, but they haven’t encountered it in terms of interest rates.

Bernice:   So yesterday we talked about using an amortisation calculator, and here in the States, I don’t know what the ratios are in Australia and New Zealand for this, but they look at how much you need to qualify to buy a loan. So I’m gonna use an example of a $200,000 loan at 4.85%, 30-year amortisation. And interest rates are going to increase by 3.1% over the next year.

Bernice:   So here’s how this is going to work. Here’s the script, Kevin. “Mr. and Mrs. Buyer, prices are predicted to increase by 3.1% over the next year.” So what that means is, I’ve got a $200,000 property. It’s gonna be up to about $206,200 by next year at this time. So it’s increasing by that amount. But then interest rates are predicted to increase from 4.85% to 5.85%. So these are the numbers here in the States. These are accurate numbers. NAR’s prediction is 3.1% increase, average 4.85 to 5.85% of interest.

Bernice:   “So Mr. and Mrs, so what this means in terms of your ability to purchase, that instead of being able to qualify with an income of $45,129 per year in 2018, you will need an income of $52,114 to qualify for the same home a year from now.” That’s almost $7,000 more. So when I had this kind of situation, Kevin, I like to use something called a Turn Up The Pain close. And here’s what it sounds like. “And Mr. and Mrs. Buyer, will you be able to show that you are earning an extra $5,485 in income this time next year? If not, you will have to settle for a less expensive home. So here’s your choice. You can buy now or wait, but if you wait, you’ll probably have to pay more and settle for less. And that price, you’re gonna have to pay more and settle for less.” That’s a Turn Up The Pain close. So we’re sticking it to them on the pain, with the idea of getting them to act now.

Bernice:   And for anybody who has the ability to buy right now, in an increasing interest rate market, the amount of money, as we talked about yesterday, on a $200,000 loan with a one-point interest rate increase, is over $50,000, if the property appreciates by 3.1% this next year. “So is it worth waiting, Mr. and Mrs. Buyer, to wait until next year, when you could pay over $50,000 more in interest?”

Kevin:   Yeah, I guess the message coming out of what we’re talking about this week is really knowing the figures, understanding the conversation you have to have, in this case with a buyer. And similar conversations with sellers. Understanding what the stats are and understanding how you can explain it. So it does require a little bit of role-play, but you’ve heard from Bernice there. She has a very convincing way of putting it across. All you need to do is do something similar.

Kevin:   Hey, Bernice, great talking to you, as always. Thank you so much for your time today. We’ll round the session out tomorrow with looking at the long-term cost of waiting to buy, another building block on top of what we discussed today.

Kevin:   Thanks for your time, Bernice. Talk to you tomorrow morning.

Bernice:   Looking forward to it.

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