03 Jun Supply & Demand – FREE eBook – Simon Pressley
In an e-book produced exclusively for Real Estate Talk, Simon Presley from Propertyology details the biggest analysis between supply and demand ever conducted. We tell you how you can get this eBook free of charge.
Kevin: In an e-book that’s produced exclusively for Real Estate Talk, Simon Pressley from Propertyology makes the point that everything on Earth that has a dollar value is determined by a relationship between supply and demand. However, as Simon points out, the price of property is much more complex. In the e-book – supplied free of charge as a bonus for Real Estate Talk subscribers – he points to a third force, which is sentiment. He joins me to talk about that.
Simon, thanks again for your time.
Simon: Hi, Kevin. Always good to chat. Yes, this information in this e-book has never been produced before. It’s a must-download for anyone who has an interest in property markets.
Kevin: Yes, it’s totally free, and you’ve put a lot of effort into this. Now you’ve taken us through state by state. Just give us a couple of the highlights, some of the things that we can pick up in there.
Simon: We’re covering a 33-year period, so there have been a lot of changes in Australia over those years. We’ve had a couple of property booms, including the one that Sydney and Melbourne just finished. We’ve had a GFC in there. We had the introduction of the GST, which had an impact on property markets. We’ve seen interest rates go from 3.5% recently to 10.5% at one point.
We’ve seen populations change from Western Australia and Queensland being the strongest growth rate periods to more recently, Victoria. We’ve seen shifts. We’ve done interstate migration.
And we’ve certainly seen a big change in dwelling supply, both in a volume sense – total number of dwellings approved in each capital city – but also in the style of dwelling, a big push over the last five or six years to more apartment supply.
Kevin: In the opening, I mentioned that we’ve credited price growth in property all about being supply and demand, but it really isn’t that simple, is it? There’s a lot more complexity behind those figures.
Simon: There certainly is. This e-book focuses on what we call the base level of supply and demand. What we mean by base level on the supply side is the number of dwellings constructed, and on the demand side, the base level is a change in population. But the overall property puzzle, there would be nothing less than 30 individual metrics that affect supply, demand, and that keyword sentiment that you mentioned earlier.
That’s the buyer mood. We don’t have to buy a property. There’s no law that says we have to live in something that we own. We can rent. We can live in a one-person household or a ten-person household. We can live in a capital city or a regional location. There’s a whole bunch of things that affect supply, demand, and sentiment.
Kevin: It’s an extensive study and a great e-book. Just going through it, just having a quick look at it now, each of the states is broken down. You’ve looked at each one, analyzed the complexity behind it.
What did you learn from doing that exercise? Is there anything that jumped out at you, Simon?
Simon: Yes, we saw that there’s no doubt that the last five years, Australia is in a residential construction boom. That’s more Australia’s big four cities more so than regional cities. There are some amazing charts that we put a lot of time and resources into to put in this e-book that really graphically illustrate how in some locations, the supply is much higher over the last couple of years than what it’s ever been before.
We have also seen, as I said earlier Kevin, a real change in the style of dwelling that we’re building, and some of the charts show you over the 33-year period that we’re charting here, the number of houses built in a typical year, the number of apartments built in a typical year, the amount of population growth in a typical year, and just seeing how that changes over the last few years, there are some fascinating charts.
And there’s some great – what we call – fun facts as well. I’ll give one away. Whilst Darwin’s property market has been in the doldrums over the last couple of years, it had eight consecutive years, Kevin, of double-digit price growth between 2002 and 2009. There’s not a location in Australia that has achieved that, eight years in a row of double-digit price growth. That’s just one of many fun facts that we’ve put in this e-book.
Kevin: You’ll certainly learn a lot by picking up the e-book. As I said, it’s totally free of charge to subscribers for Real Estate Talk. You can do that. And we thank Simon and his team at Propertyology for doing it for us.
Now, how do you get it? Well, it’s very simple. There are a number of buttons all over the site, Real Estate Talk, to help you get that. It’s a free download, as I said, so jump in, look for any one of the buttons. If you can’t find it, send me an e-mail, Kevin@realestatetalk.com.au. I’ll certainly give you that link.
Simon, thank you so much for your time. Thank you for all of the time and effort that you put into putting this e-book together. I think it’s a wonderful contribution to educating our listeners. So, thank you very much, once again, for doing that, Simon.
Simon: My pleasure. We’ve had a lot of fun putting it together, and I sincerely mean anyone who has an interest in property, this is a must-read.
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