Highlights from this week:
- Sydney and Melbourne prices could fall by up to 20%
- Sharry says ‘bank predictions reflect worst case scenarios’
- Do shortcuts to success exist?
- A flood of properties hit the market
- Chaos creates opportunity
Sydney and Melbourne prices could fall by up to 20% – Graham Cooke
Kevin: Well there have been some alarming reports recently about the potential for house prices to plummet, by some are saying as much as up to $200,000.00. This is a release from Finder.com.au, and joining me to quote from that is Graham Cooke from Finder.
Kevin: Graham, they’re pretty serious dire predictions. How much weight do you put behind that?
Graham: This is something that’s been interesting in our surveys of recent months, but trends towards the percentages increasing. So we started to ask our economists how low prices were going to go a couple of months ago, and they started saying things like 8 or 9%, and then we started asking more specifically what they think about units versus houses, and we started to get slightly higher numbers.
Graham: But this month following ANZ’s opinion that we’re gonna see 15 to 20% drops in prices, we decided to ask economists whether they agree with that statement. Quite a high percentage, over 70% of them came in agreeing with it. And this is the first time I’ve seen the big 2-0, the 20% as a number for forecast in property pricing.
Graham: The reason that number is important, is because most banks in Australia, as you know, will require a 20% deposit for the lend, so there’s 80% of the cost of the house is what you’re borrowing from the bank. But if you do theoretically purchase a house with 20% deposit, and then the price goes down by 20% in a set period of time, you of course are in the potential situation there to be in negative equity.
Graham: And that’s why this number is so-
Graham: Alarming, yeah, yeah, yeah. And obviously you’ll need to price against slightly more than that, because you’ll have paid some of the mortgage off by that time, but negative equity is the real worry, because if you have … If you’re in that situation, that means you’re locked in the property that you’re living, and you’re not really gonna be able to sell, and you’re not gonna be able to refinance the mortgage, so it’s gonna trap you into that deal.
Kevin: It might be very difficult for the banks too, because I would imagine they would be very nervous if we did actually see a 20% fall, given the fact that there would be a lot of property owners who don’t actually have 20% equity in their property. So is it likely that the banks would start to recall some of these loans?
Graham: It’s all going to be interesting to see what happens in that space. If you look at Ireland for example, we eventually saw property prices there of more than 50% between and peak and the bottom of the market.
Kevin: Where was that, Graham? Sorry I missed that.
Graham: In Ireland-
Kevin: In Ireland.
Graham: Yeah, we saw property prices drop more than 50%, so there was a whole lot of people in negative equity; in fact, there’s a lot of people who are still in negative equity in Ireland now, eight or nine years after the drop. It takes a lot of time to recover from this, but what we did see is banks don’t want people to default.
Graham: In Ireland, they started to go out of their way to try and restructure debt to help home owners somehow start paying back that mortgage, rather than repossessing houses. So I do expect banks here to try and find some way around it.
Kevin: I’m not familiar with the Ireland system; is it similar to America with non-recourse loans?
Graham: No, no, no, it’s more similar to here. You can’t just hand them the keys and walk away. So they were trying to do whatever they could to get … Especially the big banks, just to help customers pay back those loans over time.
Graham: What was interesting though, is you did see a lot of development properties in Ireland that were not sellable, that ended up going at very, very low prices to x developers actually. So the people who funded the boom, and to a degree, caused the issue, who had funds aside when property prices hit rock bottom, purchase those properties at rock bottom, and then just sat and waited for them to go up, which led to a lot of unoccupied buildings in Ireland, and that actually led to a housing crises in Dublin, with people protesting on the streets because they don’t have anywhere to live.
Graham: But that’s a very long, dark road that we don’t necessarily need to be looking into going here. But that’s where this started in Ireland as well. So 20% at the moment, we don’t want to see it get anymore than that.
Kevin: Yeah, talking in percentage terms, but if you translate that into dollars, which you’ve done in your release, Sydney Houses, the median price of $970,000.00 represented a drop of $145 to almost $200,000.00 dollars.
Kevin: So the higher the median, obviously, the higher the drop. I mean, obviously here we’re talking about Sydney and Melbourne; do you see this translating through to the regions as well?
Graham: To a degree, but not as extreme. I mean we saw the property prices in Sydney particularly increase quite dramatically over recent years, and in Melbourne increase dramatically, but not to the same degree as in Sydney. So because of those stiff turns, they’ll probably be the ones that are affected most severely.
Graham: But really, nobody knows what’s gonna happen here. It’s just a case of wait and see. Everybody was expecting more of a soft landing with property prices, and now the forecasts are getting more and more concerning as we plow on forward; prices keep decreasing as clearance rates keep falling, so really nobody knows where the bottom of the well lies in this particular situation. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Kevin: Yeah, certainly, a very uncertain mood to go into Christmas with, isn’t it? Because the market will effectively come to a bit of a halt for about four to six weeks, and here we are left with this awful thought that prices may drop. It would be even more concerning for those who are locked into a off the plan purchase, too.
Graham: Oh, yeah. Yeah. That’s something that people after the GFC in Ireland learned to maybe steer clear of purchasing off the plan, because you’re just stuck into the situation. Also what potentially could make this worse, is post-royal commission. You’re seeing banks declaring they’re gonna be having stricter lending conditions moving forward.
Graham: Now this is good overall, because you don’t want people to be borrowing that aren’t gonna be able to pay it back, and it’s good for the stability of the market, but our economists were also agreeing with the view that in the short-term, it could have a negative effect on the economy, stricter borrowing conditions leading to less people being able to purchase homes, which could push these numbers down even further.
Kevin: Yeah, I think we’ve gotta mention here too, that the research we’re talking about in this release is based on comments from some very talented economists and people who do keep a very close eye on the market, and just repeat once again that it was about a 70% response from those, saying that there will be some form of drop. I think the percentages were 5 to 7.5%, about 30% of them saying that’s what it would be.
Kevin: And from there it went up 10%, I think said about 10% and so on. So yeah, Graham, thank you for joining us. Thank you for that insight, and we’ll follow this with great interest. When is the next survey due?
Graham: Because there’s no RBA cash decision in January, we get a month off of this cycle of surveys. Everybody gets a break. And then February is the next survey, so at the end of … Very end of January, beginning of February, we’ll have the next information; that’s gonna be really interesting with this long gap over Christmas, to see what people are saying then.
Kevin: Let’s see if you can come up with position story, first, to go into Christmas with, Graham, if you can.
Graham: Yeah, that’d be good. See you Kevin.
A flood of properties hit the market – Louis Christopher
Kevin: Louis Christopher from SQM Research tells us that national residential listings jumped 7.9% in November over 360,000, but the real surprise package was Melbourne that jumped 11.6%, or over 30% from one year ago.
Kevin: Louis, were you a bit surprised about the Melbourne figures?
Louie: Yeah, the Melbourne numbers were quite high, Kevin. Yes, we’ve now got over 43,000 listings. I think this is an indicator of the fact that Melbourne’s housing downturn is gathering pace somewhat.
Louie: The reality is is when you see more listings on the market, it generally means that sellers are having a harder time to move their properties and they just stay on the market. And during good times, we generally see listings fall. There’s a shortage of listings as there are more buyers than sellers.
Kevin: Yeah. No doubt that’s reflected in the days on market figures, too, which we might get a chance to talk about. Louis, I’m just interested to get your take, and I want to go in a little bit deeper into some of the figures, but before we do, I’m just wondering, with a fall off in auction numbers, and we’re seeing that again this coming weekend, I’m just questioning, I mean obviously a lot of people are very wary about the market. It’s not stopping them putting their properties on the market, but it’s certainly showing some hesitation to take their properties to auction.
Louie: Yes, that’s right. We normally see this during housing downturns.
Louie: That what happens is that vendors become a little bit more reluctant to sell via auction. They generally start selling by private treaty. So, yes, auction listings are down compared to last year across the country. Private treaty listings well and truly up.
Louie: When your average vendor is hearing very low auction clearance rates, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, you can understand reluctance to want to sell by auction.
Louie: There is another factor in this. which is making it even more difficult to sell by auction, and that is the time it is now taking for banks to process loan applications. This is a critical point, Kevin, because that time has blown out to being above or beyond four weeks, and most auction campaigns run at four weeks. Right?
Louie: So you’ve got this situation here where come auction day, there are many would be buyers for their properties still haven’t got their money together, and so we … I’m hearing reports of, okay, on the day, property passes in, but generally it will sell after the day because, among other things-
Kevin: The finance, yeah.
Louie: … the buyer finally has their money together from the bank.
Kevin: Yeah, yeah.
Louie: So yeah, it’s a bit of an issue right now on the auction front.
Kevin: Certainly is.
Louie: There’s no question about that.
Kevin: Yeah, and not only lowering numbers, but also lowering clearance rates as well, which is really reflected in what you said. Can I take you now to some of the figures in your report?
Kevin: We’ve already highlighted the growth in Sydney and Melbourne with listing numbers.
Kevin: Also in Canberra. I see Canberra’s up month on month about 12%, and year on year, 22%.
Louie: Yes, that’s right. Yeah, that’s been a bit of a blowout with listings in Canberra. Up until recently, the Canberra market was doing quite well. It was bucking the trend that was occurring in Sydney and Melbourne, and I must say, on the rental front, rental listings are super tight right now. It’s definitely a landlord’s market in Canberra.
Louie: But I have noticed that, yes, listings have been increasing, and it does suggest to me that perhaps the Canberra housing market is now slowing down.
Kevin: I can probably understand in Hobart, where we saw month on month 17% growth in listings, that would no doubt be on the back of the fact that we have seen a lot of growth there, Louis.
Louie: That is correct, Kevin. So Hobart has been the number one outperformer when it comes to price rises over the course of the last three years, actually. It’s been a booming housing market. We’re being a little bit careful at the moment in terms of not reading too much into this result. It was a big rise in listings for Hobart. Let’s just keep in mind, of course, that the year on year change is still showing a one percent decline.
Kevin: That’s true, yeah.
Louie: With all this information, Kevin, as you would be well aware, we are in the selling season right now for many major capital cities, so we normally get a rise in listings in November, hence the reason why we like to look at the year on year numbers and see what’s going on there.
Kevin: Yeah, good point. Another key indicator, too, and it comes out in your report, is the capital city average asking prices for houses fell to 932. How much did they fall by, Louis?
Louie: Okay, so as a capital city average, houses for the month fell by 0.7%, units were flat, and on the year on year change, houses are down by three percent, units are up by 0.4%. The declines for houses have predominately been driven by Sydney, where asking prices for houses on our numbers are down by 5.2%. Units are down by 1.5%.
Kevin: 5.2%, that’s a fairly hefty drop in Sydney, compared to the national average of three percent. Given the fact that Sydney’s such a huge part of the market, I’d imagine that’s even more dramatic, Louis, because if you take out the Sydney figures-
Kevin: The rest of Australia, probably not travelling too bad at all.
Louie: Well, that’s right. If you take out Sydney, and to a lesser extent take out Melbourne, the national result would be a lot higher. It’s clear that Sydney, and to a lesser extent Melbourne, are dragging down the overall national result. That’s why it pays to understand what’s going on from city to city, Kevin, because it still overall is a mixed housing market. We’re not recording price falls in every capital city. That’s for sure.
Kevin: Louis, always great talking to you, and a tremendous insight into what the … The thing I love about your figures, Louis, is that it sort of really indicates where the market’s headed, not necessarily where it’s been. So thank you very much for that.
Louie: Thank you, Kevin. Cheers.
Kevin: Louis Christopher there from SQM Research.
Do shortcuts to success exist? – Harris and Bateman
Kevin: One thing I do know about … well, most investors are always looking for the shortcuts, the magic dust, give it to me now, I want that quick fix, and I think it’s a generalisation to say it, but I do think the younger generation is more into the quick fix than maybe my generation, old buggers like me. But is there a quick fix? Are there any shortcuts to success? Well, there probably are, and I’m going to try and find out if they exist from Matt Bateman and Luke Harris, who join us once again from the Property Mentors. Matt and Luke, thanks again for your time.
Matt: Thanks, Kev.
Luke: Thanks for having us.
Kevin: You’re the younger generation, much younger than me anyway, guys. What would you say to my comment earlier about shortcuts? Do they exist and are they worth following?
Luke: Look, I think they do exist, but do they work is probably a good question to ask as well, and are they suitable for most people?
Kevin: Let me stop you there. Is it a condition on when you do it? Is it about time frame or is about your age?
Luke: Look, I think there’s a number of different layers. It’s going to be different for every investor. It depends really on ultimately what you’re trying to achieve through your investing and whether one or two hacks are going to get you the results that you want.
Kevin: A hack to you is a shortcut, is that right?
Luke: That’s right.
Matt: Yes, that correct, and I guess there are a lot of investors out there that are looking for that secret bullet. Really in today’s busy world, everyone’s busy, and I always qualify that and I say busy doing what? Are you busy doing things that are getting you the results that you want or are you busy, I guess … I don’t want to use the word wasting time, but I guess under-utilizing time, looking for that secret recipe or that magic bullet or that one off shortcut that’s going to somehow give you all the secrets to riches. We don’t necessarily subscribe to the belief that there’s an easy and quick way to build lasting sustainable wealth. What we do understand though that there are some tested and proven methodologies, and obviously with technology coming into play today, it’s never been easier to get access to the data.
Kevin: So what do you say when someone comes to you and says hey guys, just give me a formula, I’ll follow it, and I’ll get rich. What do you say to them?
Luke: Well, I would say the formula has been tried and tested and proven over the years, and it’s buy property and hold onto it. Really a lot of people are looking to fast track that, and I think that’s the biggest problem right now. You made a comment earlier about the younger generation wanting things now and wanting things to be done straight away. Everything’s online and social media, so people can get access to data and they can get information quicker, and a lot of the fundamentals of property investment always go back to just being slow and steady wins the race.
Luke: That’s what Matt and I have found over the years is properties that we’ve bought and held onto have gone up in value. I think a lot of people are out there really as you’ve covered is they’re looking for a silver bullet and something that’s going to fast track their riches and their wealth creation. I was guilty of that in my 20s where I was buying and holding onto property, and of course, being a bit of a tradie I renovated properties, and then I started going into subdivisions because I wanted to build it faster and faster. What I found out through that, that because I didn’t have a clear plan, all it did was just take longer than I expected it to. So my hack at that time and my quick riches that I was after was to follow what was in the media and saying oh, maybe you should do renovations, maybe you should do subdivisions, and that was the fast track, but if you had a plan, you’d be able to get a long-term sustainable result the same way.
Kevin: Yeah. You see, I think that’s what it comes down to is that that lack of planning. One thing I do know is that if it was that easy, everyone would be doing it, and it’s not that easy. I’ve seen a lot of people come unstuck because they’ll literally just follow someone else’s formula, and it’s not right for them because they haven’t spent the time to develop their own plan.
Matt: We can’t agree with you more. I mean, our whole business is set up around identifying that as the very first point that we started. You see, when most people decide they want to invest in property, the first thing they do is they jump onto realestate.com or domain.com and start looking at properties, and then they wonder why down the track they didn’t get the result that they want.
Kevin: Mm-hmm (affirmative).
Matt: The reason that they didn’t get the result is that they actually didn’t start with a plan, they didn’t create the strategy. I mean, really the property is just the last I guess piece of the puzzle, albeit very important, but it’s the last piece in the puzzle that fits the strategy and a plan together.
Kevin: Is there one-size-fits-all?
Luke: Definitely not, and I think that’s the problem with what’s out there. When people are looking for a quick fix or they’re looking for a hack to help them to get their results quicker, then there is a lot of stuff out there. This is the problem with the information age that we’re in right now. There is so much information out there, and the problem is is for a lot of investors, and we’re talking about 95% of investors that are buying one property or looking to build a portfolio of two or three or four properties is where do you start? Where do you actually start researching if you’re just starting out in property? Even if you’ve already got a successful portfolio, how do you even start researching to know what you need to be looking at because there’s so much information out there? It’s easy to get information overload, and if you haven’t got somebody that’s been there and done that before holding your hand, how do you even apply that information to your own personal situation?
Kevin: What would be your recommendation to someone who wants to develop a plan? Where do they start?
Luke: I would probably say the best thing to do is talk to somebody that’s actually been there and done that before, and this is really how our whole business was established because Matt and I were out there doing exactly the same thing as the majority of investors are. They’re going and buying property, trying to do our own research, trying to fast track by doing renovations and subdivisions, and we got good results by doing that, but my advice to most people that are probably listening to this call is really sit down with somebody, go through what you’re trying to achieve through your investing, and work backwards from that rather than go out there on day one and start just looking at the property.
Kevin: Gee, that’s great, Luke. Thank you, and thank you too, Matt, as well. Matt Bateman and Luke Harris have been my guests. They are from the Propertymentors.com.au. Thanks, Matt. Thanks, Luke.
Luke: Thanks, Kevin.
Matt: Thanks, Kevin.
Sharry says ‘bank predictions reflect worst case scenarios’ – Stephen Sharry
Kevin: Well, following on from a story that we carried earlier in the show, my chat with Graham Cooke from Finder about the report from the ANZ Bank forecasting a 15 to 20% drop in values, based on median prices. This disturbs me and I want to talk a little further about it. I’ve consulted with, and is my next guest, Stephen Sharry, who is the executive editor for http://www.propertytv.io
Kevin: Stephen, I was concerned enough to want to follow through on this story. I think sometimes we can make some big errors by firstly, just basing everything on median price. Welcome to the show, Stephen.
Stephen: Hi, Kevin. Look, you’re quite right. In my opinion, I agree with that. Mind you, like you, I’m not an economist. Median house prices are the median prices for houses that have sold.
Kevin: It’s an indication of where people are buying, really.
Stephen: Yeah, at that particular time.
Kevin: That’s right.
Stephen: They’re not really … And look, they do have a correlation with eventual value, but they don’t represent it at a particular time in total. I think the banks are currently running in very conservative mode. They’re looking at worse-case scenarios everywhere.
Stephen: In Sydney, we’ve seen huge increases, Kevin, haven’t we, over the last-
Kevin: Oh, yeah. The last couple of years.
Stephen: … ten years.
Kevin: Yeah, that’s right.
Stephen: When you have a look at Australia and you look at the Core Logic figures, we’ve had an astounding, would you believe this, since 1961, six thousand percent increase in property values. Sounds impressive, but when you adjust that for inflation, it rounds out at around 300% or so. It’s around that five percent per year, so it’s just kept itself ahead of inflation, all the way through.
Stephen: Sydney market, in fact, went way above that. It went way above the average across Australia. Look, you can call it a correction if you like. It’s kind of like a breather. I think the market’s just taking a deep breath. The banks are just having a huge kick with the Royal Commission, which is not finished yet. Yeah, they’re just taking a breather, as far as lending is concerned. That’s reflected in the price of properties that have been sold.
Kevin: Yeah, we’re so quick to talk about when there is a drop. As you’ve rightly pointed out here, I know you haven’t called it a correction, they’re my words, but on the back of some pretty big increases. The moment we see an increase in price, we talk about, “Oh property is now unaffordable.” The moment we see it drop, the prices are going to crash.
Kevin: I think it’s just a gross generalisation to continually talk about medians, when we have already identified in some of our other chats that this is more than just one or two markets. Sydney and Melbourne are two markets, but there’s tonnes of regional markets as well. Even markets within markets, Stephen.
Stephen: That’s correct. There’s a market within the Sydney market, as we know. We’ve both been astounded at some of the prices that have been coming in in the western suburbs. There are still areas, particularly in that urban fringe, where property prices are still reasonable, and certainly reasonable by Sydney standards.
Stephen: Look, I go back to what I always say currently about the economy in Australia. We’ve got low unemployment. We’ve got very stable gross domestic product. Our GDP is just brilliant when you look at it, compared to other countries, including the US. Our balance, we’ve got a positive balance of trade. It’s not huge, but it’s about three billion dollars a year. We’re moving towards a near-balanced budget. Everything is lining up to be supportive, even if there is an international correction.
Stephen: That global environment combined with say a cash shortage with the banks, are the two biggest threats that we have. As long as the banks can continue to lend at a reasonable rate, those mutuals, etc., so long as they kick in and provide something out there, I know it’ll tighten, but they’ve still got to keep lending funds. We’ll see a drop in some markets, stability in others, and slight increases in some of those closer, regional markets.
Kevin: Yeah, those fundamentals you talked about there are all quite relevant. You would think that those alone should lead to more consumer confidence, but we’re not seeing it. I think sometimes on the back of negative reporting like what we’re seeing here, you know predicting prices are going to drop by 20%, and everyone immediately goes into negative mode. I don’t think that we get very far with this negative type of reporting.
Stephen: I don’t think so either, Kevin. I don’t think it has a great deal of value. Remember, in Australia, too, we’ve seen some tremendous responses from the RBA and government at managing the economy during difficult times. The global financial crisis, Australia was one of the only countries in the world that got through the global financial crisis without a recession kicking in. We did that partly based on the fact that the fundamentals are all lined up. Also because the Reserve Bank and the government stepped in immediately with assistance packages to make sure that stability was maintained.
Kevin: Always good points. Stephen Sharry joins us as executive editor at propertytv.io. Stephen, thanks for your time.
Stephen: You’re welcome, Kevin.
Chaos creates opportunity – Jane Slack-Smith
Kevin: Always looking for opportunities and there are lots and lots of opportunities emerging, no matter what the market conditions are. That’s gonna be the topic of my conversation right now with the Jane Slack-Smith from Your Property Success and Investor’s Choice Mortgages. Hello, Jane.
Jane: Hey, Kevin.
Kevin: Yeah. There are opportunities everywhere aren’t they? What are some of the ones that you’d like to highlight for us as we sort of look back on 2018 and look ahead to 2019? What are you suggesting?
Jane: Look, I love this time when there’s chaos going on and there’s all these questions and people are asking, “Should we buy? Should we wait? What’s gonna happen with the Royal Commission? What’s gonna happen if labour gets in?” This confusion is where we find times of opportunity, but most excitingly, this is where we have the major transference of wealth going from the uneducated to the savvy investor. That’s what I would love to be able to take action on.
Kevin: Yeah, well all of the fundamentals are good for the property market, yet consumer confidence is down. We can see that in the low clearance rates. Probably the lowest they’ve been in a long, long time.
Jane: Once again, you look at the opportunity, we’re reading all of the news articles around this 50% clearance, that only 50% of properties are selling. I look at that from the fence that there’s 50% of people who are walking around with their properties still in their hand at the end of every weekend going, “Now I’m open to negotiation.” This puts us in the seat of being able to negotiate better deals as well.
Kevin: What are you suggesting there that we … obviously we don’t bid at auction, or wait until they pass in? Is that what you’re suggesting, Jane?
Jane: No. You know, I’m one of those people who don’t time the market. I don’t play with fancy auction techniques. I think you should buy when you’re ready to buy the best possible property that you can. However, what we are seeing is this opportunity. I think we look at Australia traditionally. We kind of check out December and January. We kind of have the run up to Christmas parties and then we have the January where we get over the Christmas parties. We don’t come back into the market til February. If we’re gonna have an election call between February and May, we really have this time of opportunity.
Jane: I think the most interesting thing here is that people are going to look at the potential of the labour of government getting in. They’re gonna look at the changes in negative gearing. They’re gonna look at the changes of capital gains tax. They’re going to actually see that if they don’t get in and grandfather these policies now, they may never be able to access them. I think we’re gonna see the market start surging again in February, March, April, unofficially, but as you said, the confidence is not there in the economy. I think there’s going to be this time where people are gonna jump back in. I would be saying to people location matters. Location is the most paramount thing about everything. You still have to have a great location. It’s not about just jumping in. I think there’s gonna be great opportunity in the next two months before everyone realises that they’re gonna have to jump into the market again.
Kevin: Yeah. Here we are, sort of the middle of December. We’re about to go to Christmas. You’re saying put your foot down on the pedal. Look for those opportunities ’cause you’re right, real estate agents start to go to sleep. They go on breaks and people actually pull their property off the market. There could be some good buying opportunities. I’ve actually sold a house, would you believe, Jane, on Christmas Eve.
Jane: I don’t doubt it. Look, we have a service where we give people an indication of where to buy, what suburbs suit them and then I’d point to buyer’s agents that’s an expert in that suburb. We had a client come through. Within three weeks, we found an opportunity for her just recently $100,000 below her buy price. The buyer’s agent was ecstatic ’cause it’s the first time in four years he could buy under a million dollars in this incredible suburb. There’s these opportunities that people can jump in quickly and get on the back of. I just think it’s … I can’t yell the message loud enough. This is the time when the wealth transference happens.
Jane: Those who take the opportunity and buy well are the ones who are gonna be great in the next few years.
Kevin: Well spoken. Very inspirational, too. Jane Slack-Smith, my guest from Your Property Success and Investor’s Choice Mortgages. Thank you for your time, Jane. We’ll talk again soon.