Aussie swingers reveal future rises

New research has identified Australian regions where swinging relative demand will see freewheeling property owners enjoy good times.
Property research site, have released their half-yearly LocationScore Property Swingers Report – a study that lays bare demand vs. supply across Australia’s 20 largest Significant Urban Areas (SUA).
LocationScore have also highlighted the most promising suburbs in each SUA – unearthing rising markets set for firming capital gains, according to the company’s Director of Research, Jeremy Sheppard.
“These hot markets are flaunting a cocktail of successful drivers that will see buyers’ desire increase in the near future,” Mr Sheppard said.
LocationScore marked each suburb in each SUA out of 100 on eight key indicators that illustrate demand, supply and growth prospects. The company then aggregated these results to create a running relative-demand rating for each SUA over the past three years.
“Concerning the target markets in our report, we’ve picked SUAs instead of suburbs because when it comes to LocationScore property swingers, size matters,” Mr Sheppard said.
LocationScore marked each suburb in each SUA out of 100 on eight key indicators (please click this link) that illustrate demand, supply and growth prospects. They then aggregated these results to create a running relative demand rating for each SUA over the past three years.
“Concerning the target markets in our report, we’ve picked SUAs instead of suburbs because when it comes to LocationScore property swingers, size matters,” Mr Sheppard said.
“Given the breadth of data researched, even minor changes to an SUA’s aggregated LocationScore reflect a significant shift in relative demand.”
Based on a three-year comparison, the SUAs of Bendigo (VIC), Townsville (QLD), Ballarat (VIC), Geelong (VIC) and Hobart (TAS) have become the most alluring for buyers.
“After a masterful performance in the capital gains stakes last year, you’d think Hobart’s might have exhausted itself – but you’d be wrong. Our figures show it has plenty of stamina and is set to keep going,” Mr Sheppard said.
Hobart, Townsville, Bendigo and Darwin (NT) came out on top looking at swings across a one-year period. Mr Sheppard said it was interesting to watch lesser known SUAs find their groove.
“Many of these wall-flower locations sit outside the traditional hotbed of big city capital gains,” Mr Sheppard said.
“Our analysis reveals it’s these seemingly quiet positions which can fire with the strongest demand,” he said. Conversely, it’s been a flaccid outcome for Wollongong (VIC) and Sydney (NSW) over both the one-year and three-year measures.
“Regions considered the dominants of the capital growth party throughout the last half-decade are having a breather while new players take the lead and drive the action,” he said.
A full copy of the report including all highlighted suburbs is attached.
Sydney’s softening market is entrenched, according to LocationScore.
“The results reveal Sydney’s market slowdown is well and truly entrenched with buyer demand waning. Vendors must become realistic about their pricing, or risk seeing extended days on market until they reprice appropriately.”
Despite the overall poor performance, the suburban markets of Allambie Heights,
Oatley and Annandale were deemed the most promising as demand still continues
to outstrip supply.”
Melbourne has put on a promising performance despite a reasonably flat LocationScore result across the three years.
“Melbourne’s median LocationScore never reached into the 70’s in the last 3 years like it did for Sydney’s boom. But Melbourne had scores in the mid to high 60’s. And although there’s been some recent cooling, the median is still a very entertaining 65. This is the second highest median LocationScore for any significant urban area in
the country.”
For investors keen to get a piece of Melbourne, Baxter, Cockatoo and Eltham show the most promise according to the report.
While Brisbane has been expected to show plenty of promise, it’s LocationScore confirms a history of steady-as-she-goes demand vs. supply.
“Brisbane’s result continues the city’s history of slow and steady gains and stable long-term performance. Our research shows it presents investors with an overall growth potential that is best described as ‘measured’.”
Brisbane buyers could do well in Bray Park, The Gap and Everton Hills according
to the results.
Perth’s market is coming back to a natural balance after softening dramatically during the past two years according to LocationScore’s figures.
“It will take more time for confidence to be restored and get the growth up again.”
“It looks like the worst is now over. While Perth can enjoy a more positive outlook around its real estate, signs of strong sustained growth are still a way off. ”
Those looking to take advantage should hone in on the suburbs of Floreat, Sorrento and Padbury.
Cautious optimism is probably the best way to describe real estate markets in the City of Churches according to the report.
“Adelaide has some highly ranked suburbs alongside some quite ordinary suburbs. This is another city showing promise but with no clear ‘buy’ signal. It’s a market to watch and even dabble in, but not one to dive in head first anywhere you like – not yet anyway.”
Suburbs worth your attention include Modbury North, Sheidow Park and Redwood Park.
The report says it should come as no surprise the gold Coast region is full of swingers… in terms of real estate markets that is.
“The Gold Coast – Tweed Heads region has been doing a fair deal of swinging around over the last 3 years.”
“This part of SEQ is looking reasonably stable but is still not showing signs of an allout boom as may have been suggested due to the Commonwealth games by many real estate commentators.”
Suburbs of interest in this area include Mermaid Waters, Tweed Heads and Elanora.
A softening LocationScore could be telegraphing the end of this regions boom run, according to the report.
“If it falls again next month, it might mark the start of the end of price growth in the region. Prices have climbed around 25 per cent over the last 3 years – a pretty good run.”
The pick of the region includes Merewether and Kotara.
This regions property market has been a silent but smouldering performer, according to the report.
“Despite not much noise being made about Canberra – Queanbeyan, it’s one of the hottest markets in the country by median LocationScore.
“There are only 3 other property markets in the top 20 significant urban areas with a better LocationScore at the end of March 2018: Hobart, Melbourne & Geelong.” Keep your eyes on Latham, Amaroo and Kaleen.
Despite some anecdotally good reports, LocationScore said a recent softening in the numbers for the Sunshine Coast should be watched carefully.
“The LocationScore has dropped from 63 in January to 58 in March. It’s unlikely this is purely seasonal.”
Currumundi is a suburb worth of a second look according to the report.
One of NSWs hottest markets over the past three-years is slowing down according to the report.
“Many property analysts speculated this was an overflow of growth from Sydney. But growth in the median value of properties in the Central Coast has exceeded the growth in properties in Sydney for most of the period when Sydney was booming.”
“Demand has definitely subdued from three years ago. The median LocationScore is now down to 61. A 12-point drop in three years is a significant change.”
Buyers keen on the region should keep an eye on Kariong, Green Point and Berkeley Vale.
The Geelong region didn’t really start heating up until January 2016 according to the report.
“Since then it has piled on more heat, swinging all the way up to a head-turning
score of 69 in December 2017.
“Recently it’s backed off a tad to 66. But this is still the second highest LocationScore for any significant urban area in the country. Expect capital growth to accelerate.”
The standout suburb in the region is Bell Post Hill according to LocationScore.
While it’s LocationScore has softened, the Wollongong region is still outperforming most others in the swinger stakes.
“Wollongong comes in equal 4th with Canberra – Queanbeyan in rankings of the best significant urban areas in Australia by LocationScore.”
Check out Horsley and Bulli for Wollongong’s best prospects.
Here’s even more evidence of the strengthening demand for real estate in the Tasmanian capital, according to the report.
“At the end of March 2018 Hobart was ranked as the top significant urban area for growth in the country, with a LocationScore of 71. This is similar to the LocationScore Sydney had during its boom. Demand is outweighing supply and by a considerable margin.”
Particularly smoking hot markets include Howrah and Lindisfarne according to the report.
For more information or to organise an interview with Jeremy Sheppard, please
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