Cameron Kusher

For the first time ever the average dwelling price nationally eclipsed $1 million in the March 2025 quarter according to the ABS

Depending on your perspective, the average property eclipsing the $1 million is fantastic news or a massive policy failure, despite owning a property I lean more towards the latter.

Averages are not the best way in which to measure the price of a property (median is the preferred measure) but nevertheless, the average price breaching the $1 million mark is big news. Especially when you consider these are prices of all residential dwellings not just houses.

NSW is the only state or territory in which the average dwelling price is currently above $1 million but Qld and ACT are now getting close. It’s also noticeable how much average prices have increased over the past five and ten years.

Over the past five years, national average prices are +44.3% ($307,800 higher) with SA (+85.2%), Qld (+80%) and WA (+74.4%) seeing the greatest increases and Vic (+18.2%), NT (+24.5%) and ACT (+34.3%) recording the smallest increases.

Extending the analysis out over the past decade, average prices nationally are +73.1% ($423,200 higher) and have more than doubled in Tas (+114.3%), SA (+108%) and Qld (+104.7%) while NT (+6.3%), WA (+51.3%) and Vic (+54.7%) have seen the smallest increases.

With average prices now eclipsing $1 million nationally it highlights that in order to enter into a mortgage the amount that has to be borrowed is significant. At the same time, people that have owned their property for a long period of time are likely to have significant equity in their property.

This latest release by the ABS also showed that the total value of dwelling stock reached $11.366 trillion and was +1.2% over the quarter and +5.9% over the year its slowest annual rate of growth since Sep 23. With interest rate cuts and more up to date data showing home values rising once more we can expect the value of dwellings to continue to climb.

The data also produces dwelling estimates, it should be noted that the most recent estimate has a long history of being overstate and being revised lower. Nevertheless, the latest estimates place the estimated dwelling stock at 11,338,500 dwellings which is +0.5% over the quarter, +1.6% over the year and an increase of 179,900 dwellings over the year.

179,900 new dwellings over the year (likely to be revised higher) is woefully short of the requisite number of new dwellings when we consider overall housing demand and the Housing Accord target. I expect the delivery of new housing will increase from here as interest rates fall but when you consider the average price of dwellings there are plenty of people that desire a property but can’t afford them at their current prices.

Looking at the individual states and territories, ACT and Vic are seeing the greatest annual increases in dwelling stock while NT, SA and Tas are seeing dwelling stock increasing at the slowest pace.

The release also provides quarterly data on property transfers however, they are also highly susceptible to being revised although they are typically revised higher. An interesting way to look at this data is to have a look at how much of the total estimated housing stock is turning over in a given year, the latest figures here are likely to revise higher.

Over the 12 months to March 2025, 4.7% of total dwelling stock sold which was down from 4.9% the previous quarter which is actually more reflective of what this figure will be revised to. Based on this data, you are looking at around 20 years for all of the housing stock to turnover, of course that isn’t how it works with some housing stock re-selling often and others being held for decades.

Across the states and territories, turnover of stock has consistently been highest in Qld and lowest in Tas and NT. Over the 12 months to Mar 25, the highest rates of turnover were in Qld (5.6%), Vic (4.7%) and NSW and WA (both 4.5%) and they were lowest in Tas and NT (both 3.6%) and SA and ACT (both 4.1%).

Those home owners that turnover housing stock more regularly are likely to have less equity because as they are selling they are having to purchase, typically at higher prices and are incurring stamp duty more regularly. On the other hand, holding property for longer gives you longer for the equity to grow and means you avoid paying tax (if its a principal place of residence) for longer.