{"id":9833,"date":"2016-11-17T01:00:19","date_gmt":"2016-11-16T14:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=9833"},"modified":"2016-11-17T01:00:19","modified_gmt":"2016-11-16T14:00:19","slug":"unit-prices-to-drop-15-to-20-stephen-walters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/unit-prices-to-drop-15-to-20-stephen-walters\/","title":{"rendered":"Unit prices to drop 15% to 20% – Stephen Walters"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nStephen Walters<\/strong> – former chief economist for JPMorgan and now working for the\u00a0Australian Institute\u00a0of Company Directors says prices of apartments will fall 10 per cent to 15 per cent over the next one to two years, squeezing buy-to-let investors who have borrowed to negative gear\u00a0and are heavily\u00a0relying on capital gains. It is going to get \u2018ugly\u2019 he says and we ask for more information on where, what, when and how.
\n <\/p>\n

Transcript:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Reports flying in from all around Australia about what\u2019s happening with unit prices. I\u2019m going to pull into the conversation now the Chief Economist of The Australian Institute of Company Directors and also former Chief Economist with JP Morgan. Stephen Walters joins me.
\nStephen, thanks for your time.
\nStephen:<\/b>\u00a0 Hi there, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I want to talk to you about your prediction of a 10% to 15% fall in apartment prices over the next couple of years. Is that right across Australia, or are there some patches worse than others?
\nStephen:<\/b>\u00a0 No, certainly some parts of Australia will be worse than others. I\u2019ve arrived at that conclusion just by looking at the supply\/demand imbalances in some markets. Interestingly, the two real hotspots are inner-city Melbourne and inner-city Brisbane. There are also elements of other supply in inner-city Sydney, but it\u2019s much less acute.
\nIn that sense, I\u2019m looking at the sheer amount of new apartments that are being constructed in both Brisbane and Melbourne inner city relative to the existing supply. That\u2019s clearly identified the areas that when you look at demand for the apartments relative to the amount of new construction that\u2019s going on, they really stand out as having some pretty serious oversupply over the next couple of years.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Is it a slowdown because of the number of buyers, or is it a slowdown because returns aren\u2019t quite attractive enough for investors?
\nStephen:<\/b>\u00a0 It\u2019s a bit of everything. There has certainly been a bit of waning in demand, not much; it\u2019s more of supply response at the moment. If you just look at the number of cranes and the amount of construction that\u2019s going on, there\u2019s a very big supply response going on. But don\u2019t forget at the same time, there\u2019s a bit more caution from the banks in terms of providing credit into that segment of the market.
\nI wouldn\u2019t say the banks have really squeezed that part of the market, but it is a little bit more difficult as an investor \u2013 and particularly within that group, a foreign investor \u2013 to get credit to actually borrow into that apartment market.
\nIt\u2019s on both the supply side where there\u2019s a massive increase, but also on the demand side. When you get in that combination of those two \u2013 we\u2019ve seen this in the past \u2013 it typically is not that difficult to do the arithmetic on that. When you get a big increase in supply and a small decrease in demand, you\u2019re going to have some problems.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Is there any evidence that this could be put down to how tough some of the restrictions are on foreign buyers? Is that slowing the market a bit?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 It is. The problem there is that it\u2019s very hard to get statistics on foreign buyers. We do get a lot of information from the Foreign Investment Review Board, and foreign buyers are supposed to be registering with the FIRB, but often, there are ways to get around that.
\nWe know that there has been a lot of buying that ostensibly is foreign buying but it comes through domestic sources, whether it\u2019s relatives or friends or other means of actually buying domestically. It is a little bit difficult, but certainly, anecdotally, we\u2019ve heard the banks talk about probably a less or a diminished willingness to lend into that sector.
\nAlso, there has been a bit of concern about foreign buying about not just our residential real estate but other assets. I think there\u2019s a general perception that there has been a bit of a slowing in that segment.
\nBut on the flip side, anecdotally, you get plenty of evidence that there\u2019s still plenty of demand by foreigners to buy assets in Australia. There are various reasons for that, whether it\u2019s wanting to take their capital out of offshore markets for various reasons or simply that Australian property has been such a lucrative investment for a long time.
\nI think that, often, buyers are a bit slow to see what the underlying dynamics are in a market that clearly is looking at some pretty serious oversupply.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Are we seeing many defaulters at this time, Stephen?
\nStephen:<\/b>\u00a0 Not yet. I think that\u2019s still some way off. In the context here, remember that interest rates are at all-time lows and the unemployment rates is at a three-year low. The dynamics at the moment are quite good, so that\u2019s not the place to look in terms of anticipating trouble.
\nI think you can see in the statistics on rents, in particular, that rents are actually already falling. This is what economists look for. When you\u2019re looking for some pressure points in a market, you look for price signals, and the earliest price signal you get of oversupply in housing is that vacancy rates go up, and therefore, rents go down. We\u2019re already seeing both of for those.
\nDefaults will come later, but I\u2019m not anticipating a big rise in defaults. I think it\u2019s interesting that the Reserve Bank in their Financial Stability Review that was released ten days ago or so came to a similar conclusion, that there\u2019s likely to be an oversupply in some parts of the apartment market, but not widespread systemic distress with people unable to pay their mortgages or a collapse in the market.
\nBut certainly, you can get price falls. We\u2019ve seen it in the past where you get certain parts of the market, particularly high-density city apartment market, where prices do fall, but to get widespread defaults, I think you need something pretty serious to happen with unemployment going up and interest rates going up. And it\u2019s very unlikely you\u2019d see both of those at the same time.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019m talking to Stephen Walters, who is the Chief Economist with Australian Institute of Company Directors, also former Chief Economist with JP Morgan.
\nI\u2019m just wondering if there are any areas that are immune to some of these falling prices. You mentioned inner-city Brisbane and inner-city Melbourne in the opening. What about some of the other areas \u2013 beachside areas, as an example?
\nStephen:<\/b>\u00a0 This is the problem with residential investment. It\u2019s very hard to generalize across an entire market. We\u2019re only looking at the apartment segment of the market, let alone certain parts of that. I think there\u2019s always differentiated products, whether it\u2019s coastal or, for example, in Sydney, if it\u2019s near the harbor, or in other parts of the country, whether it\u2019s on the river or on the coast.
\nThere are always advantages for some parts of that residential property market, but remember there\u2019s another market out there that\u2019s not the high-density dwelling segment at all; it\u2019s the detached housing segment. I don\u2019t actually see a particular problem there. I think in the detached market segment, where there\u2019s a much bigger land component of the price, I don\u2019t see an oversupply in that market at all. In fact, you could argue there\u2019s an undersupply there.
\nWe have to be careful about extending what I think will be some problems in those inner-city markets in those particular cities to the broader housing market because I think it\u2019s unlikely we\u2019re going to see sustained price falls in the house market generally.
\nBut I think when you\u2019re looking at inner city away from the coast, away from the harbor, for example, in other parts of Australia, there\u2019s likely to be some pretty serious price weakness. But you\u2019ll quite likely see prices holding up in other parts of the country within the same city.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You mentioned that falling rents are a bit of an indicator that that particular part of the market could be in strife. What are the other indicators? Are there any others that would indicate that things are on a downward trend?
\nStephen:<\/b>\u00a0 Vacancy rates are going up, so that\u2019s the clear one that typically leads to rents. We\u2019ve seen, not in a serious way, but vacancy rates have been ticking up in those two cities I mentioned, Brisbane and Melbourne, in particular, and including in Sydney.
\nI think that\u2019s the place to watch in the near, term because rents tend to be a little bit slow to react. People tend to have their lease locked in for perhaps 6 or 12 months, or possibly even longer, so you don\u2019t see their rents adjust down until the actual tenancy ends. So vacancy rates are often a good one to look at, and we\u2019ve seen those going up already.
\nBut I think also, some of the official published data you get from the Bureau of Statistics on dwelling completions, for example. It\u2019s not hard to match up the amount of supply that\u2019s coming onto the market relative to the amount of dwellings that are already there.
\nWe\u2019re getting some pretty serious numbers. Between 5% and 8% of dwellings that are already completed are coming onto the market in addition to what is already there. We haven\u2019t seen those sorts of levels for at least two decades in terms of new supply coming on.
\nCertainly vacancy rates are the place to watch followed by the rents. But I think ultimately, you\u2019re likely to see prices come off as well because given that, certainly, investors are very active in that high-density inner-city apartment market, if you\u2019re getting lower returns each month because your rental income is falling, you\u2019re likely to get lower prices, as well. That\u2019s a cascading effect, so look at the vacancy rates, watch the rents, and ultimately, watch the prices.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Great advice. Stephen, thank you very much for your time.
\nStephen:<\/b>\u00a0 My pleasure, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Stephen Walters – former chief economist for JPMorgan and now working for the\u00a0Australian Institute\u00a0of Company Directors says prices of apartments will fall 10 per cent to 15 per cent over the next one to two years, squeezing buy-to-let investors who have borrowed to negative…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":9835,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34,10,11,13,36,17,22,25],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-9833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-property-investment","category-research-topic","category-sponsored-channels","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nUnit prices to drop 15% to 20% - Stephen Walters - 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