{"id":8528,"date":"2016-07-15T01:00:59","date_gmt":"2016-07-14T15:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=8528"},"modified":"2016-07-15T01:00:59","modified_gmt":"2016-07-14T15:00:59","slug":"more-accurate-rental-yield-predictions-dr-andy-krause","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/more-accurate-rental-yield-predictions-dr-andy-krause\/","title":{"rendered":"More accurate rental yield predictions – Dr Andy Krause"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nWe talk to one of the authors of a new research model built to increase the accuracy of rental yield predictions.\u00a0Dr Andy Krause<\/strong> explains how this can be a brilliant tool for investors and we tell you how you can get your hands on the report.
\n <\/p>\n

Transcript:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Some news: two lecturers from the Melbourne School of Design, University of Melbourne, have released a report that has been looking into predicting the accuracy of rental yields \u2013 predominately in the Melbourne area but it looks like it will be extended into other areas around Australia. Let\u2019s get a bit of an insight into this. Joining me, one of the authors of the report, one of the researchers, Dr. Andy Krause.
\nDr. Krause, thank you very much for joining us today on the show.
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 Thank you for having me, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Tell me about the research. How was it conducted and what did you find out?
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 My co-author, Gideon, and I started off with just trying to look at what areas spatially in Melbourne had better or worse rental yields. In getting into it, we realized that the question was perhaps a bit more complex than we had initially thought, and we realized that there are a number of different ways to measure rental yields. So we ended up backtracking a bit and working through those ways first.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Could I ask you, firstly, why did you undertake the study? What was behind it?
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 My co-author, Gideon, had been doing a bit of work with some of the banks here in Melbourne, and there was understanding that they were going to start to look at limiting lending in some of the various postcodes. So we thought it was a fortuitous time to take a look at the issue of how yields vary over space or over the city.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Okay, that\u2019s given us the basis for the study. Tell me how it was conducted and what were some of the findings?
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 How it was conducted is we made a few calls, and luckily we had a relationship with APM and Domain.com.au, and we were able to work out some data access from them looking at all sales and rentals of houses and units in Melbourne over the 2011\u20132015 period.
\nThe first step was really getting data access, which can be difficult. Once we had that, we then said, \u201cOkay, let\u2019s create a property-specific yield and let\u2019s look at each property that sold and rented, and create an actual yield value for each of those properties, plot those on a map, and let\u2019s see what shows up.\u201d
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Right. What were the results?
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 I think we have two major findings at this point. The first is that\u2026 Often when you look at information that comes out of industry, you see yields shown at a suburb level: \u201cIn this suburb, yields are 4.6, and in this one, they\u2019re 2.3, etc.\u201d What we found is that yields vary quite a bit even within a suburb.
\nI think the first takeaway is that for investors, analysts, whoever it may be, lumping everything into one suburb can make you miss a lot of variation and in some ways leave a lot of money on the table perhaps if you\u2019re an investor.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Just looking at some of the heat maps that I have with your report here \u2013 I call them heat maps, they\u2019re color coded \u2013 if you look at, say, the area of Fitzroy, there are some areas in there that are offering a 6% yield compared to some that are as low as 2%. These are almost within streets of each other.
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes. Again, the big takeaway we had was did people realize how much yield can vary over 400 meters, for instance? That was really the first takeaway.
\nWe then started to look at that a bit more closely and said, \u201cWhat are some things that may influence yields?\u201d At this point, we started with the idea of train stations \u2013 probably something very, very important to people. What our research has shown to date is that in the middle and inner suburbs in Melbourne, for units especially, being within 400 meters of a train station can up your yield up to 0.2%. So purely looking at the transit accessibility can increase yield.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Did you find that in areas where there was a predominance of units as opposed to stand-alone homes, there was a difference in terms of the yield? In other words, did the units offer a higher yield?
\nDr. Krause:<\/b> \u00a0Units do on average offer a higher yield \u2013 about 0.5% higher. That\u2019s fairly common knowledge over the entire market, you get a little better yield on units. Of course, what generally happens with units is that you get a little less capital appreciation, so there\u2019s some trade off there as an investor, obviously.
\nWhat we tried to do was when we looked at our maps and looked at our analysis, we separated houses and units out simply because some areas are predominately units \u2013 for instance, the area around the University of Melbourne and RMIT here in Melbourne \u2013 and then there are other areas such as the near Eastern suburbs that are almost entirely stand-alone houses. So we\u2019ve conducted our analysis splitting those two apart since the markets in some ways really are different.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, getting back to what I call the heat map, if you look at the area around Melbourne, which I assume is the Melbourne CBD, very high levels of return \u2013 around 6%. Predominately, I would imagine, they would be units?
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 Correct. Those are predominately units. Although if you have a stand-alone or one of our terraced homes in the Fitzroy neighborhood, if you\u2019re renting to students, you can still pull a pretty decent yield out of some homes in that area as well. But it\u2019s predominately units, yes.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Then, of course, if you jump across and look at the same map that looks at the housing yields, you can see that they\u2019re mainly in the red, which would indicate anywhere from 2% to maybe even 3% yields that you\u2019re getting. But as you\u2019ve pointed out, the balance there is the capital gain is probably greater with the house as opposed to the unit.
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 Correct. That\u2019s generally what has happened here. If you look at the last five to seven years, your capital gain has been higher on stand-alone homes than on units.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 How can an investor use what\u2019s coming out of this study to help them either predict where they\u2019re going to get the best capital gain or the best return in the years to come?
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 I think at this point in time, what we\u2019ve really been focusing on is trying to say something about yield. Our follow-up study is both looking at Sydney and Brisbane as well as looking into the impact of busy streets, green space, access to water. Those are all things we\u2019re working on at the moment. What we want to be able to do is to come out and say, \u201cLook, as an investor, these are the things to look to for yields.\u201d
\nNow, each investor has their own risk appetite they\u2019re willing to look at, and that is what they need to look at when it comes to capital appreciation and what sort of time frame they\u2019re trying to hold over.
\nWe\u2019re trying to attack the first question and say, \u201cLet\u2019s first understand yields,\u201d because yields vary a lot over space, but we can expect that general differences over space probably won\u2019t move all that much over time. The capital appreciation could move quite a bit, as both sides have been saying about this election, so we want to move into that in the future. But at the moment, we\u2019re trying really just to focus on the yield.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 It will be really interesting to watch what happens in Sydney in particular where the market is pretty hot right now, and then you look at Brisbane. Of course, one of the big influences on yield is lower mortgage rates, and we\u2019re certainly enjoying that. That does have an impact on yield, doesn\u2019t it?
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 It does. A lower mortgage rate, generally speaking, will drive up the price, which does drive the yield down. So there is certainly a relationship between interest rates and yields. If you plotted them over time you would see that. Yes, you\u2019re absolutely correct.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Have you got a feel for what may happen when you extend the study into Sydney and Melbourne?
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 In terms of looking into a crystal ball, not necessarily. We suspect that a lot of the major trends will hold \u2013 mainly that there is variation within the suburb. We don\u2019t see a case where the suburbs in Melbourne vary quite a bit in yields and then we go to Sydney and Brisbane and it\u2019s completely flat across the suburb.
\nWe don\u2019t really see any reason for that since the drivers of yields, in some way, are looking at what are the things renters value and what are the things homeowners value? And where those two things differ is where you get yields on the very high and the very low end. We think that same set-up exists in some ways in all major cities in Australia.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Great talking to you, Dr. Andy Krause, a lecturer at the Melbourne School of Design, University of Melbourne. Tell me how we can get hold of this report. Is it available through Domain?
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 If you go to Domain, there are a few new stories about it in Domain, and there\u2019s a link, too. At the moment it\u2019s being hosted on my personal website at http:\/\/www.AndyKrause.com<\/a>. You can go to Current Research and two different reports are there. We also hope to have this forthcoming in an academic journal sometime in the near future. But I would check out my website for the time being.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 That website again is http:\/\/www.AndyKrause.com.au<\/a>. Look for Current Research, you\u2019ll find that button in there.
\nDr. Krause, thank you once again for your time and I look forward to hearing from you when we get some results out of Sydney and I guess also Brisbane.
\nDr. Krause:<\/b>\u00a0 Absolutely. We will let you know. It was great to speak with you this morning, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Thank you. Thanks for your time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  We talk to one of the authors of a new research model built to increase the accuracy of rental yield predictions.\u00a0Dr Andy Krause explains how this can be a brilliant tool for investors and we tell you how you can get your hands on…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":8531,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10,11,13,36,17,22,25],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-8528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-property-investment","category-research-topic","category-sponsored-channels","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nMore accurate rental yield predictions - 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