{"id":8019,"date":"2016-05-22T10:00:37","date_gmt":"2016-05-22T00:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=8019"},"modified":"2016-05-22T10:00:37","modified_gmt":"2016-05-22T00:00:37","slug":"why-investing-in-property-does-not-make-sense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/why-investing-in-property-does-not-make-sense\/","title":{"rendered":"Why investing in property does not make sense"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nMichael Pascoe<\/strong>, finance and economics commentator tells us why, in his opinion, investing in property doesn\u2019t add up.\u00a0\u00a0 He doesn\u2019t say don\u2019t do it but he points out why many investors go wrong.
\nTranscript –<\/strong>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Joining me now is Michael Pascoe, finance and economics commentator, over 40 years\u2019 experience in all forms of media.
\nIt\u2019s a pleasure to have you on the show, Michael, and thank you for your time.<\/b>
\nMichael:\u00a0 <\/b>My pleasure.<\/b>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>You\u2019ve written an article that was called \u201cWhy Investing in Property Doesn\u2019t Add Up.\u201d Could you tell us a bit more about that piece and what it means for Australians who are looking to invest in property?<\/b>
\nMichael:\u00a0 <\/b>There are a couple of things to it. First of all, it\u2019s obviously a very general piece, because there isn\u2019t one Australian property market; there are about 10,000 of them at least. But on the averages now, there has been such a surge in prices that you\u2019re obviously not going to see that same soaring capital appreciation, obviously, until we digest a pretty big lift over the last few years.
\nThe other side of it is supply has responded to demand, there has been a lot more building. That\u2019s showing up and investors have certainly been active, meaning there\u2019s more rental property around, meaning some rents are beginning to fall, other rents aren\u2019t rising, and if the gross rental return isn\u2019t flash, <\/b>then the net rental return is even worse.<\/b>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>When you build that on top of the credit squeeze that we had to have, with the banks toughening up on lending and so on, we\u2019re probably going to see a lot of those units that are being built and apartments being built being left vacant or not being able to be sold, too. Will that add to that problem, or is that part of it?<\/b>
\nMichael:\u00a0 <\/b>I\u2019m not so sure about that end of it. I think before you get to that situation\u2026 I presume you\u2019re talking about properties that have been sold off the plan and then people can\u2019t get finance.<\/b>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, I am.<\/b>
\nMichael:\u00a0 <\/b>That\u2019s a problem that the market will digest, but I think it\u2019s a fairly short-term problem. The longer term is if you look in very rough figures, if you assume that prices on average are only going to rise by about the inflation rate for the next few years \u2013 and some people would call that an optimistic view; I think it\u2019s not unreasonable. So let\u2019s say prices go up by 2% a year. When you buy an investment property, depending upon what state you buy it in and how much it is, you\u2019re paying as much as 5% stamp duty, so you\u2019re not going to break even on your stamp duty for two and a half years. On top of that, you have land tax. Again, depends on where you are and how big your holdings are, but that has another bite of it.
\nMy suspicion is that investors very rarely are honest and accurate in their assessment of costs of owning property. They might look at the gross yield and think, \u201cWell, yes, that\u2019s that. Well, we\u2019ll be able to get around it, and we\u2019ll still be making 2.5% or 3%.\u201d I think a lot of investors in property, by the time they factor in all their costs, might be lucky to make 2%.
\nNow, you throw those numbers into the mix and it means an investor buying today, if they\u2019re fortunate and buying the average property, they\u2019re really not going to be ahead for three years. And that\u2019s if they buy a property that\u2019s still appreciating, and there are pockets clearly around the country where they\u2019re not appreciating.
\nSo it really is a challenge. The easy money seems to have been made in residential real estate. It comes along once every decade or so. Prices go through the roof. Like every boom, everyone piles in, and the people who pile in last to any boom tend not to do so well.<\/b>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>You mentioned in the piece \u2013 that I thought was very good, too \u2013 that there are exceptions to this, and you just acknowledged that yourself, that there will be different parts of Australia that will still improve. What about properties where you can actually add a twist, add an extra bedroom to give you a better rental return, Michael?<\/b>
\nMichael:\u00a0 <\/b>That\u2019s clearly where the professionals come into it, as opposed to the mug amateurs who just get burnt. That ability to pick a property that does have potential other people don\u2019t see, the occasional bargain buy, the occasional stress sale that can do well, that makes the exception.
\nI\u2019m talking very broad averages. By nature of those broad averages, there are some that are doing well. If you look nationally, the consensus view from people who watch property seems to be that Brisbane is going to fare better for a while yet, that the party is pretty much over or close to being over in Perth and Melbourne, and of course, the party is going backwards in Perth.
\nOne interesting thing that I\u2019ve come across in the last week or so from a finance broker and also from the comments made by the Reserve Bank\u2019s Financial Stability Review is that it seems to be upside in Adelaide. Now, poor old Adelaide doesn\u2019t get much of a look in and tends not to fly as high as any other state but also tends not to fall as low. I\u2019m told that a couple of major banks are still happy to lend to developers for units in the Adelaide CBD when they\u2019re not happy to lend for units in the CBD of the East Coast cities.<\/b>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>That\u2019s interesting. Just on another point, should property investors be focused more on long term, and if so, how long term?<\/b>
\nMichael:\u00a0 <\/b>Property investors have to be focused on the long term, because except when there\u2019s a crazy boom on when you can buy and flip something fairly quickly \u2013 except for that once in a decade period \u2013 I would think looking at property in anything less than ten years, you\u2019re fooling yourself. Part of the return that comes there is really for savings anyway if you do have to service the debt.
\nAPRA and the banks have probably done investors a favor on a couple of fronts. I think they\u2019ve forced a pull on the market, they\u2019ve made people look a bit harder on what\u2019s happening, and given what is happening with the returns, that\u2019s a good thing. They\u2019re also really encouraging banks who in turn encourage their clients not to do interest-only but to actually start knocking off some of the loan, and that should be a very helpful factor over the next several years.<\/b>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Jonathan Tepper, a researcher and economist from the UK, has loudly predicted that the Australian market is going to crash spectacularly within the next 12 months. He\u2019s predicting 20 to 50%. What are your thoughts on that?<\/b>
\nMichael:\u00a0 <\/b>Oh, spare me. He\u2019s another one, the latest in a long line of doomsday callers. I go back a fair way. I remember Steve Keen, when he came out with his famous prediction, and you have that klutz, the American who turns up here every couple of years with a new book he\u2019s trying to sell.<\/b>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>When he\u2019s a got a book; yes, that\u2019s right.<\/b>
\nMichael:\u00a0 <\/b>They make the same predictions. Nothing is impossible in the financial world, as we all know, but to have a serious housing crash in Australia, you would need to have a serious rise in unemployment. If you look at how Australians behaved during the 1990\u201391 recession when we had double-digit unemployment, the last thing they let go of is their real estate. We eat dog food before we sell the family home. So to get the sort of mass sales you would require to seriously crash prices, you\u2019d have to paint me a scenario where we have a major rise in unemployment, and there is nothing on the horizon that you can say is likely to lead to that.
\nOne of the things you never have to worry about is missing bad news. There will always be someone who wants to tell you bad news; it takes a bit of effort to go and find a more balanced picture. And the more balanced picture is that the Australian economy is close to pulling off an incredible transition from its resources boom into something more sustainable. We haven\u2019t done it yet, but it\u2019s looking like we could do it, and we have a situation where we have jobs continuing to rise, we still have good population growth, and as long as you have more employment and more people, it\u2019s hard to see how you could have a really major property crash.
\nAlso, unlike the lending institutions in Europe and the US, our banks haven\u2019t lost the plot. We are fortunate to have APRA pull them up, as APRA had to pull them up last year and this year. So I just can\u2019t see why that\u2019s the probable outcome, because you get the odd clown who looks at charts from the other side of the world and does a taxi driver survey in western Sydney and extrapolates that to the nation. It doesn\u2019t make sense.<\/b>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>And more importantly, has a book to sell.<\/b>
\nMichael:\u00a0 <\/b>That tends to be the case.<\/b>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Michael, it\u2019s fantastic talking to you. Thank you so much for giving us your time today.<\/b>
\nMichael:\u00a0 <\/b>A pleasure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Michael Pascoe, finance and economics commentator tells us why, in his opinion, investing in property doesn\u2019t add up.\u00a0\u00a0 He doesn\u2019t say don\u2019t do it but he points out why many investors go wrong. Transcript – Kevin:\u00a0 Joining me now is Michael Pascoe, finance and…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":8017,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36,22],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-8019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-property-investment-topic","category-research-topic","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy investing in property does not make sense - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/why-investing-in-property-does-not-make-sense\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why investing in property does not make sense - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  Michael Pascoe, finance and economics commentator tells us why, in his opinion, investing in property doesn\u2019t add up.\u00a0\u00a0 He doesn\u2019t say don\u2019t do it but he points out why many investors go wrong. 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