{"id":7879,"date":"2016-05-05T10:00:44","date_gmt":"2016-05-05T00:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=7879"},"modified":"2016-05-05T10:00:44","modified_gmt":"2016-05-05T00:00:44","slug":"melbourne-set-for-a-downturn-investment-tip-you-should-ignore","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/melbourne-set-for-a-downturn-investment-tip-you-should-ignore\/","title":{"rendered":"Melbourne set for a downturn + Investment tip you should ignore"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nCharlie Albone<\/strong>, landscape designer on Selling Houses Australia has just returned from Hong Kong and shares some great design ideas he picked up there and as well he has some advice that will save property sellers losing up to 25% on offers when they sell.
\nSimon Pressley<\/strong> from Propertyology believes that Melbourne is on the cusp of a market downturn and he tells us why.
\nMichael Yardney<\/strong><\/a> shares his top 7 property investment tips you should ignore.
\nWe sort out the confusion that surrounds media reports that confuse median price movements with actual market fluctuations.
\nWhen you hear the word forensic do you automatically think of CSI and other TV series that use science to solve crimes?\u00a0 Now we have forensic cleaners who are being used more and more in property and we tell you why.
\nBen Kingsley<\/strong> balances the debate about the Melbourne market and says while things might get tough he doubts it will get as bad as Simon Pressley is saying.
\n 
\nTranscripts-<\/strong>
\n<\/strong>Richard Rossman:<\/strong>
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 One of the frustrations I\u2019ve had from time to time is how the media constantly plays on medians. If you see a movement in the median, either up or down, they\u2019ll maintain that\u2019s an indication that the market is moving either up or down when it has absolutely nothing to do with it.
\nLet\u2019s try and clarify that a little bit more for you. I can do that by introducing my next guest, Richard Rossman from Secret Agent and a really interesting article that they\u2019ve put together, which is why you can\u2019t trust averages or even, in this case, medians. I want to talk about the difference between all of those and what that really means.
\nRichard, welcome to the show, and thanks for your time.
\nRichard:<\/b>\u00a0 Thank you for having me.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 This is long overdue, trying to clarify what medians are. Firstly, in your own words, explain to me why we really can\u2019t rely on medians as an indication about what\u2019s happening to the market.
\nRichard:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, sure thing. Let\u2019s just discuss what an average or a median really is. It\u2019s a metric that tells you if you have all data points, or in this case, all housing sales in your sample and divide that by the total number to get the average or you find the middle number. If you think about it, it\u2019s basically the total money invested in the housing market per house.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 The way that I\u2019ve described it \u2013 tell me if I\u2019m right or wrong here because you\u2019re much more skilled at this than me \u2013 the median is really an indication of where the predominance of people are buying. In other words, if more people are starting to buy more expensive properties, then the median is going to move up. It\u2019s not an indication that the market is moving; it\u2019s an indication that buyers\u2019 habits are moving up. Is that a fair way to talk about it?
\nRichard:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, basically. The median, if you think about it, is just the middle number of your data set, so it\u2019s between the minimum and the maximum. Especially looking at the whole aggregate, if you have smaller houses and bigger houses, if they\u2019re moving in different directions, the median won\u2019t pick up on that sort of thing; it just picks up on the very general trend of are people spending more money on houses; it doesn\u2019t tell you about the stock or supply of the actual houses.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Let\u2019s take an example because I know in your newsletter, you\u2019ve done that. Let\u2019s have a look at Fitzroy in Melbourne as probably a classic example. Run me through the figures there and that\u2019ll demonstrate the message, I think.
\nRichard:<\/b>\u00a0 Absolutely. We looked at Fitzroy housing sales from 2011 until the end of 2015. What we found was that the reported average would be about 8.7%. Those are the big figures that you often see on national TV, on RealEstate.com.au, or other sources like that. But if you compare it to just using houses that were bought and sold multiple times in that time period without any structural changes to the houses, then you\u2019re looking at a growth of about 5.75%, which is a difference of almost 3% in over-statement from the average. One big factor is a building developer coming in, buying a big house or a big block of land and then subdividing it, which adds a lot of value to the market. The average doesn\u2019t segregate that.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Then explain to me why we are so focused on medians. What do they tell us?
\nRichard:<\/b>\u00a0 I think it\u2019s the simplest and quickest way to get an overview. Often, people don\u2019t look any further because it tells you a general overview of the market right now. It\u2019s is there more demand for houses and how is the housing industry going? Are people spending more money in it or less money in it? But it doesn\u2019t tell you if you have a house, how much it will be worth a year from now.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 How do you find that out?
\nRichard:<\/b>\u00a0 The way you find that out is by constructing an index using just houses that were bought and sold multiple times without any structural changes such as renovations, subdivisions, or anything like that. If you just use those, basically, what you\u2019re getting is the true capital growth and you\u2019re taking out all other factors that are adding value to the housing market, which is reported in averages.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Where can the average punter get that sort of information?
\nRichard:<\/b>\u00a0 Our website, quite simply. It\u2019s something we\u2019ve been working on recently, especially since it\u2019s not really out there that much. Housing indexes are done on a very big basis \u2013 say, all of Australia, for example, would have a housing index. But if you want to invest in a city or even a specific section of suburbs, it doesn\u2019t really tell you enough.
\nWhat we\u2019re doing at the moment is we\u2019re working on constructing indexes for suburbs, specifically, and also for cities such as Melbourne that give you much more in-depth insights into the true capital growth.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Will that information be available for all of Australia or just for Melbourne?
\nRichard:<\/b>\u00a0 Because we\u2019re a rather small team, we\u2019re just going to be working on Melbourne at the moment. But we might be able to do a collaboration in the future on all other areas, as well. It just depends.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 The website is SecretAgent.com.au. That\u2019ll get you there.
\nRichard, I want to thank you for giving us your time. We\u2019re unfortunately out of time, but it\u2019s really interesting. As I said, it\u2019s one of my major frustrations, this focus on medians.
\nRichard:<\/b>\u00a0 Me, too.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 The website to go to: SecretAgent.com.au. Richard, thank you for your time.
\nRichard:<\/b>\u00a0 No worries. Thank you very much.<\/i>
\n 
\nSimon Pressley:<\/strong>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Property price falls are forecast in Melbourne from 2017, due to massive car manufacturing job losses and rampant overbuilding of houses and apartments, according to some new research released by Propertyology. Joining us from Propertyology once again is Simon Pressley.
\nSimon, thanks for your time.
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s nice to talk to you again, Kevin.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>With the extent of this fall, are you able to forecast by how far it will fall?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>No, I\u2019m not. We\u2019re always reluctant to put percentages on things because with every market, whether it\u2019s Melbourne or anywhere else, it\u2019s obviously going to be influenced by international events and federal events, as well. But whatever broader Australian property markets in 2017 and 2018, we feel there\u2019s every reason to expect Melbourne to be quite a bit below that.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>We hear about closures in car manufacturing impacting the Adelaide or South Australian market. Why are you saying it\u2019s going to extend through to Melbourne?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>A couple of years ago, Kevin, when the three big car manufacturing plants announced publicly to all of us that they were closing, we automatically go to things like that to work out what potentially impacts on which market.
\nNot long after the announcements, there was a report released by the University of Adelaide. We have no reason to take that on anything other than face value. Because they\u2019re academics, they don\u2019t have a vested interest. They estimate that nationally, there will be 200,000 jobs lost. Not all of those will be working directly in a plant. Some will be in the supply chain of that. But 98,000 will be in greater Melbourne. A lot more are in Melbourne than Adelaide, Kevin.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Has this or anything like this occurred anywhere else in Australia and this is what you’re making comparisons on, Simon?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>In our history, has there been something like this?
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes. Are you comparing this with impacts anywhere else in Australia?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>The closest recent comparison we can make is with Perth. To us, the fundamentals of Melbourne now resemble what we saw unfolding in Perth two years ago. At that point in time, Perth\u2019s property values were still rising. However, commodity prices, especially iron ore, were starting to decline, and we anticipated that that would lead to job losses in Perth.
\nAt the same time, we could see lots of development or building approvals, which eventually equates to more supply. We put a report out forecasting Perth\u2019s values would decline, and history stands that we were accurate in that.
\nWe think there\u2019s a similar dynamic unfolding with Melbourne. Right here and now, today, Melbourne\u2019s market is one of the strongest in the country \u2013 no denying that \u2013 but those jobs will be lost. Those factory announcements have been made. And the supply of new housing in Melbourne is not contained to just the inner city Melbourne stuff that’s been well reported for a while now.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes. In your report, you mentioned two factors. We\u2019ve pretty well covered one, which is the downturn of the car industry. You also mentioned there about an overbuilding of houses and apartments. Are they equally contributing to this, or is one worse than the other?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s not just unique to Melbourne, Kevin. There\u2019s been a big increase in the number of apartments relative to all dwelling styles built over the last three years. For a long period of time, apartments represented about a third of all new dwellings approved in a typical calendar year. Now, it represents 50% to 55% of all dwellings built in this country each year.
\nThat\u2019s not unique to Melbourne, but we all probably have known for a while that there have been too many inner-city apartments built in Melbourne. This is official data. Our research shows that there is going to be an oversupply across greater Melbourne. In fact, 16 out of 31 local government authorities that make up Melbourne have approved in excess of 50% more dwellings each calendar year than what they normally build. That correlates to the demand side of things. The rate of population growth of Melbourne has been the same last year as it was the year before, the year before that, and the year before that. Demand is the same, but supply is a heck of a lot more.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>You\u2019re saying 2017. When in 2017 do you think we\u2019re going to start seeing the impact of this?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>Look, it would be great to have that crystal ball, but we know that the first of the car manufacturing plants will be closing in October 2016, about six months from now. That\u2019s not that far away. It\u2019s highly likely leading up to that that there\u2019s going to be lots and lots of stories reported in the broader media about households affected by this. The next two closures will occur \u2013 I don\u2019t know the exact dates \u2013 over the following 12-month period.
\nThe downturn will be directly related to when the factories close, to the sentiment related to the stories about it closing, as well as the unfolding of the <\/b>extra supply. It\u2019s likely to be a few years of being quite grim, according to our research.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Simon, I understand you have some graphics on your website that demonstrate this point.
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, we do, Kevin. We\u2019ve produced a heatmap that shows the specific local government authorities from an oversupply of housing point of view and also the councils that will likely be affected the most by these car manufacturing closures. They\u2019re available on the Propertyology website.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Okay, go to the website \u2013 I\u2019ll give it to you in just a moment \u2013 or you can use the link here. We take all of our interviews word to text, so we\u2019ll put that link across the text in there. You can read that, and it will link you straight to it.
\nSimon, it was great talking to you. Thanks very much for your time. Simon Pressley there from Propertyology.com.au. Thanks for your time, Simon.
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>No worries, Kevin.
\n 
\nMichael Yardney:<\/b><\/a>
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 As investors, it can be very hard to separate the good property advice from the bad. We\u2019ve quite often talked about this. Let\u2019s be honest about it. There is a lot of advice out there. Most of what you hear, of course, on Real Estate Talk is going to be okay, but by the same token, we have to filter through it. I\u2019ve asked Michael Yardney<\/a> to join me.
\nLet\u2019s have a look at some of the advice, Michael, that maybe you\u2019d ignore and you might suggest we do the same. Good morning.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Good morning, Kevin. Yes, there is lots of advice to sort through, to sift through, to filter, and sometimes it is very hard to decide what you should follow.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 What about buy locally so you can visit the property?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 A lot of people say that, don\u2019t they? You should be able to look at it, you should be able to go past it, you should drive past it. It\u2019s your comfort zone. I can understand the appeal of it, but as the basis of an investment strategy, in my mind, there are lots of potential dangers.
\nRemember there are lots of different markets around Australia. They all have different growth drivers, different growth cycles, so investment based on just location is important, but not necessarily your location.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, you could also be missing out on a lot of great opportunities, as well.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 The markets are so fragmented, that\u2019s exactly what is happening.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 What about just searching for high yield opportunities?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 We know that there are the two big schools. Some suggest strong cash flow is a great way for investors to go, but in my mind, it\u2019ll never make you rich. There is no way. Cash flow from high-yielding properties, sure, they help you manage your investments, they help your cash flow. But in my mind, it\u2019s capital growth that you require to build your asset base, to build your net worth, and then you transition to the cash flow stage.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 The next one on the list you gave me, I must admit I pondered over for a while, and that is about investing in the United States because it is so cheap, isn\u2019t it?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 It is. I can think of now probably for 15 years, people have been suggesting investing in the United States because it\u2019s cheap. You can buy a house cheaper than the price of a used car. But I guess you could find those places now in Whyalla or in Moranbah in Australia, as well. There are always cheap properties out there, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s very true, actually. That\u2019s good advice. This next one is a good one. Only invest in properties that you\u2019d live in yourself. I think this is a real big mistake.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Very much so, and so many people fall for that. The goal is to take your emotions out of the equation by looking at properties that suit that particular market. In some areas, a one-bedroom property is appropriate, and in other areas, it may not be. In some areas, apartments; maybe in other areas, it\u2019s really house and land. I\u2019ve owned many well-performing properties that are consistently tenanted, but I wouldn\u2019t live in them myself.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 No. What about investing just to take advantage of tax deductions?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s another piece of advice you should ignore. You should never invest in a particular property because of the tax benefits \u2013 depreciation, negative gearing, rental guarantees. You\u2019re leaving yourself exposed to changes in the tax rules. We just talked about that in previous shows \u2013 about negative gearing. But the main thing is your property should be a growth asset and the tax benefits are really the cream on the top.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 A lot of people do think that investors are only investors because of things like negative gearing, Michael.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s not really the case. I know that is a strategy that some people talk about, and what we\u2019re saying right now is that it\u2019s the sort of advice that\u2019s fraught with danger.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Absolutely. This next one: buy a holiday home that you can personally benefit from. By this, you mean that you\u2019re going to use yourself?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 A lot of people buy a holiday home and use the excuse that \u201cIt\u2019s also an investment but I can actually go there along the way. I can use it as holiday time with my family and get two benefits out of it.\u201d I think along similar lines is \u201cI buy this property because maybe in ten years\u2019 time, I\u2019m going to retire into it.\u201d
\nI think having these mixed uses means it\u2019s never going to be a particularly good holiday home and probably not a good investment. I\u2019d be just using a specific purpose for your property. Have it as an investment. Holiday locations don\u2019t usually make good capital-growth locations. Instead, stay at a new holiday location each year or take a week\u2019s vacation in the best hotel in that area.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I can hear the chorus of listeners now saying, \u201cOh yes, I fell for that one.\u201d
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 It\u2019s so common. Again, we\u2019re human and have emotions and needs. We\u2019ve all made these mistakes. That\u2019s why I know these lessons. I\u2019ve made a lot of them myself.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019m so pleased this next one is on the list because time after time, I still hear about people who are buying off-the-plan because they think they\u2019re going to buy at today\u2019s prices to get tomorrow\u2019s benefit.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 We\u2019re talking about the investment tips you should ignore. That is one that if you buy off-the-plan, you\u2019re buying at today\u2019s price. But in fact, it\u2019s not today\u2019s retail price. There are two tiers in the property investment market, and off-the-plan prices are not set by the market; they\u2019re set by the developer, often for as much as he can get based on \u2013 often \u2013 what overseas buyers are going to pay. Therefore, the real test of a property\u2019s value is when it comes onto the secondary market.
\nKevin, recently, we\u2019ve been seeing a lot of properties being sold a year or two after contracts have exchanged at up to 30% below the contract price. You can\u2019t forecast future growth. There are too many risks in off-the-plan. In my mind, that\u2019s a bad piece of advice to listen to.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Those are seven pieces of advice that you shouldn\u2019t listen to. I guess that list could go on and on. You could probably write a book about this one. In fact, that\u2019s a good idea.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 It is. All of the mistakes people make and the bits of advice not to take \u2013 Kevin, I could easily fill a book with that.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019m sure you could. Michael Yardney,<\/a> always great talking to you. Thanks for your time.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Thanks, Kevin.
\n 
\nCharlie Albone:<\/strong>
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019m delighted to say our special guest in the show is Charlie Albone, who is a landscape designer from Selling Houses Australia<\/i>, of course \u2013 very well known for that. He\u2019s also owner of Inspired Exteriors, and general all-round stirrer of Andrew Winter, I believe.
\nCharlie, good day.
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Hello. Yes, that is my favorite job, [0:16 inaudible]<\/b> of Andrew Winter.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>You do it very well, too.
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>He\u2019s just so easy. That\u2019s the thing.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>He\u2019s easy to bait, is he?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>He is very easy to bait.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>You\u2019ve just come back from Hong Kong. Was that a holiday, or were you there on business?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>No, I was there on business. I just went for three days. I have a client there. We\u2019re designing the gardens around their house. It\u2019s very nice.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Are gardening concepts different in Hong Kong from Australia?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes. They say, \u201cOh, we have a big block for you to look at,\u201d and you turn up and it\u2019s the size of the smallest townhouse here, and you think, \u201cYeah, huge.\u201d
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, I suppose the plants would be different, as well.
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Yeah, it\u2019s a very humid climate. The issue you have is it can be very overcast and foggy and humid, and then all of the sudden, the sun comes out and the leaves all have water on them and they start to burn. So you have to be really careful with what you select.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>When you travel like that, Charlie, do you pick up ideas, new design concepts?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Absolutely. I think travel is one of the most important things you can do for new ideas. It doesn\u2019t have to be a straight copy of something. Traveling around, you might find an interesting texture on the wall that you see, and that might spark something to maybe use that texture in a paving pattern, or colors in color combinations, as well. Traveling is really good for sparking ideas.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Speaking about travel, we spoke to you after you came back from the Chelsea Flower Show last time. You hinted then that you might be going back. Is that still the case?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, absolutely. I\u2019m heading back. I leave in three weeks. We start building a garden on the other side of the world in the pouring rain, getting it ready in 21 days for the Queen to have a look at.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>That\u2019s a wonderful experience. Are you going to give us any ideas as to what the design is, or is that going to be a secret?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Unlike last year, this design is very formal. Last year\u2019s garden was a Sydney-based garden. This year is Melbourne, and it\u2019s for a busy couple who really gets a lot of support for their busy life from their garden. I travel a lot, and I tend to work quite a lot. I have young kids, as well, and I think I get so much from my garden. It just adds that extra layer of support and lets me relax, and I want to try to recreate that feeling in the garden this year.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Charlie, can you afford to have any all-time favorites, your own favorite type of plants? Are there some that you will absolutely avoid at all costs?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>There are things like Japanese peonies that I absolutely love, but being in Sydney, it\u2019s far too humid to grow them. I have a few of those in the garden at Chelsea this year. There are a lot of go-to plants that are really good. I use a lot of lilly pilly hedging just because I know I can buy it instantly tall. I love rosemary hedging, as well. That\u2019s a good one. I do quite like all the pretty flowers and stuff like that, but they do take quite a lot of work to get looking good.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Jade, our producer, told me that your producer has a weird phobia about cacti. Is that right?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes. A lot of people have weird phobias about cacti, that\u2019s for sure, which is odd because you just put them in the ground and ignore them.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>In your home, given that you\u2019re so busy, what type of gardener are you? Do you prefer those all-round plants, or are you into really high-maintenance annuals and bulbs?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>No, I like a combination of the two. I think it\u2019s important to have a combination of the two that give you the structure from stuff that you can ignore or give limited love to, and then have smaller areas where you focus your energy on all of the fiddly pruning and the dead-heading and stuff like that. That way, you can enjoy the best of both.
\nMy favorite thing in my whole garden is actually my automatic lawnmower, which is great for someone who travels as much as I do.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Automatic lawnmower? <\/b>How does that work?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>You put a perimeter ring around your garden, which is a wire, and then it just goes off. Because of the size of my garden, it does two hours of mowing in the morning, and two hours in the evening. It just takes the tiniest amount off the grass, and it always looks fantastic.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>You wouldn\u2019t want to have an overly complicated lawn, then, would you?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Mine goes around trees and paths and all that sort of stuff. So once you\u2019ve programmed it, it\u2019s absolutely fantastic.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>I\u2019ve never heard of that. What brand is it?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s a Husqvarna. They\u2019ve actually made them for 20 years.
\nKevin: \u00a0<\/b>Goodness.
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>In all of <\/b>Sweden, every second garden has an auto-mower over there. It\u2019s a very Swedish thing to do. They\u2019re quite new over here, but really, for busy people and people who want the best for their lawns, they\u2019re fantastic.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Charlie, I want to take you in a different direction, and that\u2019s to talk about street appeal. There was a Finder <\/b>survey out recently. It said that sellers risk losing up to 25% on offers due to a lack of street appeal. You probably have seen this in your work on Selling Houses Australia<\/i>. Would that be right?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Absolutely. I was talking to Andrew Winter about this. We did An Audience with Selling Houses <\/i>last week, and somebody asked a similar question. Andrew said it doesn\u2019t matter how nice your house is on the inside or how nice your back garden is; if someone drives past the house, and it has bad street appeal, they might not even give it the time. They might just drive off. It might be the perfect house for them at the right price for them, and they\u2019re willing to pay more than somebody else, but they might just not stop because of the street appeal.
\nThe same goes for if your house isn\u2019t particularly nice and you have nice street appeal. Then someone might say, \u201cThat looks nice,\u201d and then go in, and first impressions last, so they might give it a bit more time and a bit more thought than they necessarily would have.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>I hope you recorded that comment that Andrew made because I reckon there\u2019s grounds there for you to get a pay increase for your importance on the show.
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>I\u2019d like to say that, and I did mention that to him, but he said, \u201cDon\u2019t do the back garden, then. Just do the front.\u201d
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Fair enough. What are the biggest turnoffs for buyers that you\u2019ve found when it comes to a lack of street appeal?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Mess is a big one. It doesn\u2019t cost anything but your time to get out and cut the grass and pull the weeds out and give the shrubs a bit of a prune. Just make them look a little bit tidier. That makes a huge difference. Sweep off the paths and things like that. You wouldn\u2019t have people around your house having a messy house, so why do it with your garden?
\nA fresh coat of paint makes a huge difference, as well. If you don\u2019t have the budget to do that, just clean the house down, pressure-wash the house down. That makes a huge difference, as well.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What about places that have a lot of concrete, big retaining walls, and so on? How do you go about softening those?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Paint will do a lot, as well, but planting is the key there. You want to try to get rid of as many hard edges as you can to make it more inviting.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s interesting. Inside houses, we\u2019ve gone into the area of having big, open spaces \u2013 we\u2019ve seen that \u2013 and good light coming in. What about gardens and fences? Is a fence always a good idea?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>It depends on your market. If you\u2019re in an area that
\ndoesn\u2019t have fences between the gardens \u2013 and we\u2019ve done a few houses on Selling Houses<\/i> that don\u2019t \u2013 then having a fence is an odd thing. If everybody has a fence, then having a good fence is a positive thing, if that makes sense. \u00a0For garden design, though, it\u2019s really important that you pay attention to what your fences do because that sets the backdrop to everything within the garden. Often, you\u2019ll find I clad a <\/b>fence with some sort of screening or try to hide it with some planting. If you want your space to feel bigger, the lines where fencing meet the ground, where they meet corners, and then when they stop, if you can hide all of that, you trick the eye into knowing where the boundary is, and the space will feel bigger.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Of course, we can always see you on Selling Houses Australia<\/i>, but your own website, InspiredExteriors.com.au, carries a lot of great tips as well, Charlie?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Yeah.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Excellent. I expect you to say that. You have lots of videos, as well?
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Actually, I don\u2019t do it. Someone else does it for me. I don\u2019t know.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Okay. It\u2019s great, believe me. I\u2019ve been there. Check it out for yourself. It\u2019s called InspiredExteriors.com.au. My guest has been Charlie Albone from that company, and also designer and landscape designer from Selling Houses Australia<\/i>.
\nCharlie, great talking to you, as always.
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>You too, thank you.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Give my regards to the team, and we\u2019ll talk again soon.
\nCharlie:\u00a0 <\/b>Absolutely.
\n 
\nBen Kingsley:<\/strong>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Earlier in the show, I was talking to Simon Pressley from Propertyology about what’s likely to happen in Melbourne with prices. His view is quite dim, saying that in 2017, likely because of massive car manufacturing job losses and overbuilding of houses and apartments in Melbourne, there\u2019s likely to be some fairly substantial price falls.
\nI want to get a bit of balance on this. Of course, every commentator I talk to around Australia expresses the view that there has been overbuilding in Melbourne. What\u2019s the impact of that likely to be? I\u2019m talking now to Ben Kingsley, who is the CEO and founder of Empower Wealth.
\nBen, thanks for your time.
\nBen:\u00a0 <\/b>A pleasure, Kevin.
\nKevin: <\/b>You\u2019re aware of these concerns, and you’ve probably already seen what Simon had to say. What\u2019s your view of the Melbourne market into 2017 and 2018?
\nBen:\u00a0 <\/b>I think Simon raises some important points around how some pockets of the marketplace are mostly likely going to be oversupplied. I would be careful in my consideration of medium- and high-density apartments. I think there are going to be those areas where we have planning regulations for medium to high density. We\u2019re going to overshoot the mark in regards to having an oversupply in those areas. I\u2019d also be a little careful in regards to some of the land releases and the building activities having right out on the fringes.
\nThey\u2019re the two areas that would give me some consideration, but in terms of the fundamentals in some of the other areas, we\u2019ve often talked about this \u2013 haven\u2019t we, Kevin \u2013 in terms of markets within markets, there\u2019s really strong demand for houses, the old style flats, and also villas and townhouses in that 15 to 20 kilometers toward the city. That\u2019s the market that most families would like to get in. All the amenities are there, all of the infrastructure is there.
\nWe\u2019re still seeing Melbourne as being one of the significant economies inside Australia. We\u2019re probably not as pessimistic around the broader market, but there are certainly some of types of accommodation that we\u2019d be steering clear of.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Simon\u2019s predicting anything up to 100,000 job losses in Victoria. That certainly would have some impact, though, wouldn\u2019t it?
\nBen:\u00a0 <\/b>It would have enormous impact, but I think one of the things we need to understand is that these jobs can transition. It\u2019s not as if it\u2019s been a broad announcement where we\u2019re closing down a refinery or we\u2019re making a sharp decision that’s going to see those job losses occur.
\nWe\u2019ve seen Geelong do a great job in trying to transition out of some changes that are happening down there. I think Victoria generally is going to be looking at some large infrastructure projects. Obviously with our construction boom that’s going on down here, there are some jobs in that particular market, as well.
\nAgain, I\u2019m not as pessimistic about the job losses. Yes, I think there\u2019s no doubt the Andrews government\u2026 And broadly speaking, we need to see some stimulus in terms of keeping the number one livable city in the world strong. But I would also add to that that there are potentially other markets around Australia that might represent better investing. You just have to know where you want to go.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Ben, before I let you go, we\u2019ve seen some pretty big figures on people moving into Melbourne in recent times and even overseas buyers. Has that artificially held that market up?
\nBen:\u00a0 <\/b>There is a great story about foreign investment into property in Australia, and I don\u2019t think it\u2019s just Melbourne; I think it\u2019s right across the board. There\u2019s a lot of Chinese money flowing in. We\u2019ve seen some recent data come out around the growth in those types of numbers \u2013 literally in the hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars. They are important things, so if the China story does start to slow down, that’s important to understand.
\nBut I also think the Australian investor is a bit savvier these days than they were in the past. By that, I mean it\u2019s very clear that with 93% of all new investment loans going to existing property, I think the local investor is getting smarter about that.
\nIf you’re going to look to invest into an apartment, a townhouse, or a high-rise, then you really have to do your homework. You have to make sure that it has real exclusivity about it, making sure that those uninterrupted views are going to be there indefinitely and can\u2019t be built out. They are the types of little things you need to look for if you’re going to go into that market. I for one wouldn\u2019t be going into that type of market.
\nPositively, though, the economy\u2019s good down here. It\u2019s a very livable city. We certainly need to do a little bit more with our transport modes, and I\u2019d say we need to do more around that east-west link, which will eventually happen. When we start to see some of those announcements coming through, I think Melbourne has a good story to tell over the next five to ten years.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>That\u2019s great advice. Thanks for your time. Ben Kingsley, CEO and founder of Empower Wealth.
\nBen, great talking to you. Thanks for your time, mate.
\nBen:\u00a0 <\/b>Thanks, Kevin. <\/b>
\n 
\nPam Marsden:<\/strong>
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 When we hear the word \u201cforensic,\u201d we quite often think of CSI<\/i> and those crime shows on TV where they go into all of the forensic science. But forensic cleaning is something we don\u2019t get to talk about very often. There is a company in Brisbane that we can touch base with now to learn a little bit more about what\u2019s involved. That\u2019s BVM Clean Scene. Pam Marsden is from that company.
\nPam, thank you very much for your time.
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 My pleasure, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Tell me, firstly, what is a forensic cleaner, and what do you do?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 Specifically, it\u2019s cleaning up crime scenes, death scenes. It could also branch into squalids. Basically, mostly things that nobody else wants to do.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You\u2019ve been doing it for quite some time because I understand you were, in fact, Australia\u2019s first established forensic cleaning company. Is that right?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s correct.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 How did the company come about?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 It came about because there was a niche. I read about a lady in the States who was doing it, and I thought, \u201cThat sounds fascinating.\u201d I did a bit of investigating and there was nothing. It used to be left to people who had been previous victims of crime themselves, and I thought, \u201cThis isn\u2019t right.\u201d I thought, \u201cThere\u2019s a need here and I\u2019ll fill it.\u201d That\u2019s how it came about. I started it on the 1st<\/sup> of November, 1996.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Has your business changed in recent times? Here, I\u2019m referring to the growth that we\u2019re seeing in meth labs.
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, it certainly is a growth industry at the moment.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Tell me how broad it is. We don\u2019t get to hear a lot about it unless the police do a raid and then we hear about it. Are you being called in more and more?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 I think it\u2019s the tip of the iceberg, really. Yes, it is. It\u2019s huge. Unfortunately, because there\u2019s not really \u2013 probably \u2013 suitable regulation, a lot of it\u2019s going under the radar.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s a bit scary.
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 It\u2019s very scary.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019ve heard of people doing this type of activity even in motels. Have you seen that?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 Absolutely, and in car boots and caravans. They just go anywhere.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I believe it would be very toxic so tell me about what precautions we need to take if we\u2019re actually going to move into a house where this has been exposed.
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 You really need to make absolutely sure that the place has been decontaminated because they remain toxic for a very, very long time if they\u2019re not cleaned. There are some ghastly chemicals involved in the making of this stuff. It just goes on.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Is there a test kit that we can get before we move into a property just to make sure this hasn\u2019t been going on?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s a very good question. I\u2019m not sure. I\u2019m sure there must be plenty of test kits you can get. I do test strips to send off to a laboratory. That\u2019s probably a bit much for a resident to try and do each time they move into a place.
\nBut really, there should be a history. In America, if a property has been a clandestine drug lab, they are obliged to tell the tenant or the buyer about it, whereas that doesn\u2019t happen here.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I was going to ask you that question, whether or not there is an obligation for disclosure.
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 No.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 There\u2019s not, at all.
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 No, there\u2019s not. It\u2019s the same with crime scenes. The only thing that they\u2019re obliged to tell you about is a murder, but violent crime and all the rest of it, no.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Good, because we have heard of instances around Australia where people have purchased a property and then found out a ghastly murder had taken place in there. They\u2019ve even been able to overturn some of those transactions because they didn\u2019t want to move in.
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 That happened here with the Gonzalez murders. A house that was in a suburb in Sydney, we cleaned it and then it was sold to a family from Burma. Of course, they\u2019re very sensitive about spirits and all the rest of it. They actually got out of the sale, so now it\u2019s called the Gonzalez Effect and they have to disclose the fact that there has been a murder on the premises.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 It must be terrible on a personal level for you to go to some of these awful murder scenes. How do you handle that?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 I have a nursing background, so that probably helps. Also, we\u2019re not actually emotionally involved. We get satisfaction from actually making the place look much better and acceptable to people who have to come in and get their relative\u2019s possessions, etc.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Getting back to meth labs for a moment, if I were to walk into a house where a meth lab had been set up, what could I expect? What would that smell be like?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 Sometimes you can detect a chemical smell. Some people confuse it with if you go into a squalid premise, it smells like rotten food, the freezer has gone off or whatever. But a meth lab that\u2019s been in clean premises, it\u2019s really the chemical smell.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s the smell. What about discoloration of the walls? Is that a factor?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 Sometimes, especially because a lot of these things will catch light because they\u2019re quite flammable, as well. If there\u2019s been a fire, then obviously, yes. Sometimes there is a discoloration.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Tell me about situations other than drug labs and murder scenes. I understand also you have been called in to clean up some pretty filthy houses, as well.
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 The hoarders and the squalids, that\u2019s right. Once again, it was something that nobody else wanted to do, so it fell into our lap. Yes, we do that, too.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 We\u2019ve seen on television those hoarder type shows, and I\u2019m quite horrified to think that people would live in that kind of squalor. Do you see that very regularly?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, there\u2019s a lot of it out there. Once again, it\u2019s the tip of an iceberg. What you hear about is just a small proportion of actually what goes on. Often, these people are only discovered when they have to go into hospital, and then, of course, the social work department goes out to see what the conditions that they live in are and are horrified.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 What\u2019s the worst one you\u2019ve had to clean up?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 It was probably a premises in Bondi, and we couldn\u2019t even open the front door more than about four inches. It was up at door level, the height. We just had to pick it away until we could open the door and keep going. It was unbelievable.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Is it normally squalor, foodstuffs and things like that, or is it newspapers and cartons?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 It\u2019s everything, Kevin. They go around, the council clean-ups, and they bring all the stuff home regardless of whether it\u2019s workable, or they want it, or whatever. They just bring it home. It\u2019s a mental illness, though. Yes, it\u2019s a problem.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 When you have to go in and clean these premises up with those bad smells and so on, do you use chemicals or natural-based products?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 Usually it\u2019s natural-based products. We have a machine for the unattended deaths that have been there for quite some time. I have a machine that runs for 24 hours to get rid of the odor.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Pam, before I let you go, I wanted to cover off again on that disclosure element because that somewhat concerns me \u2013 that there is no obligation to disclose, particularly if there has been drug manufacturing happen in a rental unit or a house. That\u2019s right across Australia, is it?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 I don\u2019t know about right across Australia, but certainly New South Wales. The police put a notice on the door of drug labs that they\u2019ve busted, but it\u2019s up to the council to see to it that these properties are decontaminated properly. But really, because there is a lack of regulation, I don\u2019t think it happens as much as it should be.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 If I were a landlord and my rental property were used as a drug lab, am I responsible for having it cleaned up? In other words, do I have to pay for your services?
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 Unfortunately, yes you do, unless you have insurance. But a lot of insurance companies won\u2019t touch this sort of thing because they\u2019re extremely expensive procedures.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Tell me how much it would cost if someone had been operating a meth lab.
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 It\u2019s a bit like asking me how long a piece of string is because everything is different. In a car boot, it\u2019s a bit different to a four-bedroom, two-story house or something.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I suppose in a large house, it would permeate all of the rooms, not just the one where it was done.
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 It does. We\u2019ve had to take the whole Gyprock wall system down in some houses. It\u2019s just unbelievable. It depends on the severity of the drug lab, too, how long it\u2019s been operating, and the lab test results when they come back.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 The company is called BVM Clean Scene. My guest has been Pam Marsden.
\nPam, thank you so much for your time.
\nPam:<\/b>\u00a0 My pleasure, Kevin. Thank you for your call.
\n 
\n 
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  Charlie Albone, landscape designer on Selling Houses Australia has just returned from Hong Kong and shares some great design ideas he picked up there and as well he has some advice that will save property sellers losing up to 25% on offers when they…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":7880,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,11,24],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-7879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-shows","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nMelbourne set for a downturn + Investment tip you should ignore - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/melbourne-set-for-a-downturn-investment-tip-you-should-ignore\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Melbourne set for a downturn + Investment tip you should ignore - 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