{"id":7652,"date":"2016-04-18T01:00:36","date_gmt":"2016-04-17T15:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=7652"},"modified":"2016-04-18T01:00:36","modified_gmt":"2016-04-17T15:00:36","slug":"even-though-the-property-market-does-move-in-cycles-so-many-people-choose-to-ignore-the-signs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/even-though-the-property-market-does-move-in-cycles-so-many-people-choose-to-ignore-the-signs\/","title":{"rendered":"Investors ignore the signs"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nEven though the property market does move in cycles, so many people choose to ignore the signs and the lessons we can learn from observing what has happened.\u00a0 Michael Yardney<\/strong> shares some of his \u2018quieter moment\u2019 lessons with us.\u00a0 Things he has learned from his experience of many years of successful investing.
\nTranscript<\/strong>
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 One of the things we have learned is that the market moves in different cycles \u2013 not only cycles in time but even cycles around the country. Different markets move at different paces. You look at the Sydney market, and boy, hasn\u2019t that boomed? You shouldn\u2019t get disenchanted thinking that you might have missed it.
\nI\u2019m going to ask that question of Michael Yardney, because I know you\u2019re a sophisticated investor, Michael.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s a nice word. Thank you, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I can say it; probably, you can\u2019t. But you\u2019ve been investing for quite a long time now. What are the lessons you\u2019ve learned from sitting back and looking at these cycles?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 There have been lots of lessons, because when I first started investing, I didn\u2019t even understand the concept of property cycles. I just bought and I bought close to where I lived or bought close to where I went to school. I was lucky. What happened was the Gough Whitlam government came in. We had massive inflation. Property values doubled in five years, not just mine; I just happened to be at the right place at the right time.
\nKevin, one of the worst things that can happen to a beginning investor is to get it right the first time because you think you\u2019re smarter than you are.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 There\u2019s a great lesson in that, too. The other thing I think we\u2019ve seen, too, is that while booms don\u2019t last forever, neither do busts.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Sure, they don\u2019t. Interestingly, one of the lessons I learned along the way is that property markets act irrationally. When I started to learn about cycles, I started to study them and I started to look at the four phases of the cycle and what\u2019s going on.
\nI guess the lesson I\u2019ve learned in the last years as we\u2019ve dug deeper and researched more is property markets aren\u2019t only driven by fundamentals; they\u2019re often driven by the irrational and erratic behavior of an unstable crowd of other investors.
\nThe lesson is never get carried away too much by those booms that you mentioned, Kevin, and never get too disenchanted by the property slump.
\nCan I give you an example of what\u2019s currently happening?
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, please do.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Sydney was the hottest property market in Australia for a number of years, and at the end of last year, APRA came in, restricted some lending criteria, talked about a bubble that\u2019s going to burst, created concern. The media created concern. People in New South Wales started to second-guess themselves and question, \u201cIs it too late?\u201d
\nSo the Sydney market stalled at the end of last year and has dropped back a little bit this year not because of the lack of fundamentals \u2013 because Sydney is creating more jobs, has huge population growth, and does not have the oversupply that Melbourne and Brisbane have. It\u2019s not the fundamentals that have held back the market; it\u2019s consumer crowd confidence that has slowed it \u2013 and it\u2019s starting to pick up again.
\nThe lesson is booms don\u2019t last forever. Be prepared, don\u2019t be surprised and don\u2019t overreact when the market changes phase.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 In the same way, I guess you have to be very aware and beware of doomsayers.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 There\u2019s a conga line of doomsayers who come from overseas each year and tell us that we\u2019re going to have a market crash. The latest one was Jonathan Templar who predicted property values are going to drop because of what happened in Moranbah.
\nLast year, I remember you interviewed Harry Dent, and he predicted then that by the middle of last year, property values were going to fall because of what was happening in China. There is one after the other. It goes way to back to Steven Keen who had to walk from Canberra to Kosciuszko with a t-shirt saying, \u201cAsk me how wrong I was about property prices.\u201d
\nOften, they have an agenda of selling a book or selling courses. But these are powerful emotions and one the media uses to grab our attention. I think, sadly, some people miss out on the opportunity to develop their own financial independence because they listen to those messages. They listen to the messages of people who want to deflate the financial dreams of their fellow Australians.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 And there are a number of them around. You mentioned earlier one thing that you\u2019ve done. Probably you did it purely by accident at the start. That is you developed a system. How important is that, especially in the cycles?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Kevin, I didn\u2019t have a system to start with. I bought emotionally like everybody else, and it took me a while to do it. But I think sophisticated investors do follow a system because what it does it take the emotion out of decisions. It also ensures they don\u2019t speculate. Look, it may be boring, but it makes it profitable.
\nTo be honest, almost anyone can make money during a property boom because the market covers up the mistakes. But many investors without a system are going to find themselves in financial trouble when the market turns, as it did in the regional towns or mining towns. I remember Warren Buffet\u2019s great saying, \u201cYou only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.\u201d
\nAgain, I think you have to have the right system for the right area for the right sort of property. You have to understand what the end game is. If you do have a system, then you\u2019re more likely to have consistent profits, you\u2019re more likely to reduce your risks, and you\u2019re more likely to have an exciting life.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You said, a few moments ago, that in a property boom, anyone can get rich. How important is it to be aware that you don\u2019t go chasing those fast-money-type schemes?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s a good question because most of us want to get rich. Only this morning, I got an e-mail from Kelly who I actually suggested she doesn\u2019t buy just yet \u2013 she waits until she builds up a little bit income, more savings, and more serviceability.
\nShe thanked me for it because she said, \u201cI keep reading the front of those property magazines and I read about people who got 20 or 24 properties, they bought 10 properties in 10 years,\u201d and she feels she has missed out. I think we\u2019ve also heard the downside to a lot of those stories when they\u2019ve actually bought the wrong properties.
\nTo me, it\u2019s not how many properties you have; you really have to own the correct assets and try not get influenced, to get swayed, by the latest \u201cget rich quick\u201d artist with a great story about how you can join them and become stupendously wealthy overnight.
\nI know their stories are compelling, I can understand they can be hard to resist, but I think they pander to those people who want to give up their day jobs and get involved in property full-time, suddenly become a developer, suddenly flip properties, renovate full-time. Patience is an investment virtue, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Therein lies the problem, too, because for a lot of people, they do go chasing those \u201cget rich quick\u201d schemes and they get anxious about missing the cycle and so on instead of looking at it as a business. This is the business of property.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 It is. You\u2019re in the business of property. During the last boom, many investors forgot that age-old adage of the fundamentals of buying the best property they can afford in proven locations. They went for glamorous things, and now they\u2019re the casualties of that.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Earlier in the show, too, I was talking to someone about the importance of having a buffer. It\u2019s very important if you\u2019re looking at this as a business, too, that you need to set it up to make sure you can move through these cycles.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 It gets back to what we were saying a bit earlier that the boom-and-bust cycle will continue to occur. Every year, there will be unknown X factors coming out of the blue to make your best-laid plans look a bit shaky. That\u2019s the importance of having financial buffers to see you through, to help you ride the property cycle. That means the roller coaster ride won\u2019t be as dramatic.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Bottom line for us, Michael?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Cycles are inevitable in any investment market, and our property markets, they\u2019re behaving normally. They\u2019re working their way through the cycles. Kevin, I think with lower inflation and lower interest rates, the cycles won\u2019t be as dramatic moving forward \u2013 so we won\u2019t have as high highs or as low lows \u2013 but that doesn\u2019t mean there aren\u2019t opportunities out there for property investors.
\nI think the message is well-located properties in the capital cities are going to do well, but remember, of course, each state is at its own stage of the property cycle, so you don\u2019t really have to try and pick the cycle; just stick to a strategy and when your finances are ready, when you are able to do it, get to the next property, don\u2019t try to be too smart.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 The bottom line: be selective and think long-term. My guest has been Michael Yardney from Metropole Property Strategists.
\nMichael, thanks again for your time.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 My pleasure, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Even though the property market does move in cycles, so many people choose to ignore the signs and the lessons we can learn from observing what has happened.\u00a0 Michael Yardney shares some of his \u2018quieter moment\u2019 lessons with us.\u00a0 Things he has learned from…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":7654,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,10,11,13,36,22],"tags":[103],"class_list":["post-7652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buying-a-property-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-research-topic","tag-podcasts"],"yoast_head":"\nInvestors ignore the signs - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/even-though-the-property-market-does-move-in-cycles-so-many-people-choose-to-ignore-the-signs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Investors ignore the signs - 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