{"id":7646,"date":"2016-04-14T10:00:33","date_gmt":"2016-04-14T00:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=7646"},"modified":"2016-04-14T10:00:33","modified_gmt":"2016-04-14T00:00:33","slug":"crazy-rules-make-andrew-winter-wild-2-unusual-markets-tipped-to-be-big-improvers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/crazy-rules-make-andrew-winter-wild-2-unusual-markets-tipped-to-be-big-improvers\/","title":{"rendered":"Crazy rules make Andrew Winter wild + 2 unusual markets tipped to be big improvers"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nAmy Mylius<\/strong> from Cate Bakos Buyers Advocates, takes us through some areas she sees buyers falter in their due diligence.
\nStar of Selling Houses Australia, Andrew Winter<\/strong>, is frustrated about the many and varied rules that are applied to buying and selling real estate in Australia and he says they are treating you and I like idiots.
\nWith low interest rates and burgeoning property prices, the result has been that we are borrowing more.\u00a0 Bessie Hassan<\/strong> sees this as a big problem.
\nWe share a fabulous and inspirational story about a 30 something young person who has come to terms with her bad relationship with money management and turned it around as she is saving a deposit for her first property purchase.\u00a0 You might be surprised at how Emily Power<\/strong> is doing it.
\nEven though the property market does move in cycles, so many people choose to ignore the signs and the lessons we can learn from observing what has happened.\u00a0 Michael Yardney<\/strong> <\/a>shares some of his \u2018quieter moment\u2019 lessons with us.\u00a0 Things he has learned from his experience of many years of successful investing.
\nWho would have thought that Brisbane and Hobart would be picked as the potential big improvers this year?\u00a0 Hear why Simon Pressley<\/strong> from Propertyology is investing in those two areas right now.
\nTranscripts-<\/b>
\nAmy Mylius<\/b>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>I was talking to Amy Mylius recently. Amy is a buyer\u2019s advocate with a very good friend of ours, Cate Bakos, at Cate Bakos Property in Melbourne. We were talking about due diligence. Amy is featured in the latest edition of Australian Property Investor<\/i> magazine. We recorded a Skype interview, and I wanted to take a particular part of that and just talk to you about it, Amy.
\nFirstly, welcome to the show, thank you for your time.
\nAmy:\u00a0 <\/b>Thanks for having me.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s always a pleasure. We were talking about the mistakes that people make when they attempt to do their own comparable sales, or CMA analysis, which is a very important part of the due diligence process. I wonder if you\u2019d quickly take me through those.
\nAmy:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, absolutely. What I find is sometimes people make the mistake of not comparing like with like properties, so comparing apples with oranges. They might take a property that they think is going to sell for a similar price to another one but has completely different attributes, such as a townhouse that is on a small piece of land, quite new and shiny, versus a house that is on a larger block that might need a full renovation. Both houses might be selling for the same kind of price in the area but for different reasons, and it\u2019s very hard to extrapolate those reasons based on those sale prices alone.
\nAlso, when they have a look in a suburb, they might compare a property on one side of the suburb to a property on the other side of the suburb that has completely different attributes and demands. It might be two kilometers away from the station rather than walking distance, and it might be a completely different kind of demographic who are looking there, such as families in one part of the suburb versus young professionals in another part.
\nNot comparing with one sale is really important, as well. We find that buyers sometimes grasp onto one sale that they\u2019ve seen that they think is quite relevant, but we don\u2019t always know the reasons behind that sale price. The property could have sold for a massive price because two buyers got carried away at auction, or it might have sold at a really discounted price because the agent lost their key buyers a day prior to the auction. Unless you know that information, it\u2019s very hard to create a trend just out of one property sale.
\nNot applying a range is a mistake that people make, as well. It\u2019s very hard to pinpoint an exact sale price of a property to a dollar figure. It\u2019s not a science, and it\u2019s completely based on a lot of different variables, so I always say to people to give yourself a bit of a range and also apply a little bit of a stretch price, as well, because if properties have been selling for around $700,000 in your area and the growth has been strong lately, you need to apply a bit of a premium to be competitive, as well.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>That\u2019s an interesting comment, Amy. What\u2019s your experience about how much of a premium should be added now if we\u2019re looking at a recent sale within the last two to three months?
\nAmy:\u00a0 <\/b>It depends on how strong the capital growth has been in that area, and it also depends on whether someone is an investor or a home buyer, as well. We say to investors that up to a 3% stretch we feel is quite fair in a moving market, and up to 5% for home buyers, as well.
\nI always think that if we are going to auction, we need to be competitive, otherwise you can waste a lot of time and money and energy into pursuing properties and being the underbidder each time, as well.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Of course, these competitive market analyses are nothing new, but they\u2019re becoming more and more important. Quite often, you\u2019re going to turn up to an open home and you\u2019ll find that an agent will give you one. I\u2019d be interested to hear from you, Amy, about what we should be looking at or what we should be placing importance on if in fact an agent does give us a CMA. What should we be wary about there?
\nAmy:\u00a0 <\/b>Absolutely. We always need to understand what the agent\u2019s motivation is. They are there to get the best price for their vendors, and sometimes that does mean picking and choosing from the comparable sales that they think will best support their property. It\u2019s often properties that have sold for slightly less, if not quite a lot less than their anticipated sale price. Sometimes they only choose properties from their own company sales, as well, and I see that quite often.
\nEven if they\u2019re good comparable sales, they\u2019re not necessarily representative of the entire market. They might also pick and choose comparable sales that will have attributes that aren\u2019t necessarily related to this property. So it might be on significantly smaller land or might need a renovation, but it\u2019s not so evident in the little printout they give to you, as well.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Very good advice, Amy. Thank you so much for your time. Amy Mylius from Cate Bakos Property in Melbourne.
\nThanks, Amy. We\u2019ll talk to you again soon.
\nAmy:\u00a0 <\/b>Thanks, Kevin. See you later.
\n 
\nAndrew Winter<\/b>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>A man I love having him on the show because he is always so much fun, Andrew Winter. Love his show, too, Selling Houses Australia.<\/i>
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>Good morning, Kevin, how are you?
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Good, nice to be talking to you, and you\u2019ve done it again. How many series are you into now with Selling Houses Australia<\/i>?
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>We will start hopefully filming season ten later this year.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>That\u2019s brilliant. Now let\u2019s talk about the weird rules in real estate. I know you\u2019re a bit fired up about some of these.
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>I do get fired up.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>I saw another one created in New South Wales making real estate agents now have to record any building inspections and make them then available to any purchaser. Have you heard about that one?
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, I\u2019ve heard about that one. Of course, down there they can\u2019t use the word \u201cOffers over,\u201d either. It does make me tear my hair out \u2013 luckily enough I still have some \u2013 but this is the whole sort of craziness.
\nI do think we have to have legislation relation to real estate, of course. That\u2019s one of the reasons so many overseas investors love buying in Australia, because of our solid title <\/b>legislation, because everything is protected, which is great. You need due diligence periods, you need cooling off, you need deposits, you need trust accounts.
\nAll of that is absolutely vital to a successful real estate market, but then I think what we\u2019re seeing now is that we just want to make rules for the sake of it, and I think part of the problem with a lot of these rules is that we\u2019re giving the public absolutely no credibility for having an ounce of a brain, and we\u2019re also making things so litigious that it\u2019s almost\u2026 How some of these rules could ever be policed, and when somebody actually does something wrong, what really happens? Which, to me, is a pointless law. Does that make sense?
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>I have to talk about a very pointless one in just a moment, but can you give me a couple of examples of what you\u2019re talking about?
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>One of my absolute beasts is this stupid Queensland-only Queensland rule about not being able to discuss price when you decide to take your property to auction.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>We\u2019re going to disagree on this one, but that\u2019s okay, that\u2019s very good.
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>I\u2019ll tell you exactly why it is. I have no problem with whether you choose to disclose the price or not. If that\u2019s the way you want to go, fine. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn\u2019t. However, that\u2019s the point for me: it\u2019s choice. There should be nobody who says\u2026
\nIf I\u2019m a seller, if I want to price guide my property at auction, I should be allowed to. If I want $1 million and I want to say, \u201cPrice guide is $500,000,\u201d guess what, everyone is going to turn up and give me $600,000. The market will sort it out.
\nI throw my arms up in despair, because the other problem is it makes Queensland look stupid.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>I take your point and I don\u2019t totally disagree with what you\u2019ve just said, but let me put it back to you in another way. With price guiding like that, a lot of that is done by agents who want to simply lowball, to suck people in, to get buyers in, to say, \u201cLook, you\u2019re going to buy it for $500,000.\u201d They go, they do their building inspections, all their planning, then they turn up on the day of the auction to find that the reserve is $1 million. That is not fair.
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>No, it\u2019s not fair, but it\u2019s free market. I don\u2019t think you should be legislating against things like that. I think that\u2019s why you\u2019re thinking that everybody is that stupid, that they don\u2019t know that that house at $500,000 offers is really going to be worth $800,000 or $900,000. I genuinely don\u2019t believe that, and I think that this is all a sort of kneejerk reaction, mollycoddling a market that doesn\u2019t need it. I think this is the point to me. We can agree or disagree about the principle of it, but I still think a seller has a choice.
\nWhen their agent chooses to list at a lowball figure, surely the seller is going to have an opinion on that, and the seller should have control over where they pitch it. Sometimes, if you lowball it, the seller can do well from it. Other times, the seller will do disastrously from it and the agent will look very silly.
\nWhen I tell anybody interstate or overseas that rule, they look at you as if I lost my mind. My concern is that Queensland is supposed to be an international player in the property market and right now we look like someone from kindy. It\u2019s such a joke policy, because it actually is just saying that everybody who buys and sells property is so stupid they can\u2019t discuss\u2026
\nImagine going to buy your family sedan, which is an expensive item. You go to the dealer, \u201cI like that one, how much is it?\u201d \u201cI can\u2019t discuss prices with you.\u201d \u201cWell, can you give me a guide?\u201d \u201cNo.\u201d \u201cWhat if I offered $500?\u201d \u201cI\u2019ll put the offer, but I can\u2019t sell you that\u2019s going to be close.\u201d Then, you see, you start to chuckle. You have to admit it\u2019s absolutely insane.
\nIt\u2019s not that I disagree or agree with non-pricing strategy. It\u2019s quite a unique thing; it\u2019s very Australian. Virtually no one else does it anywhere else in the modern market, only Australia, but sometimes it can work.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Auction of property is very strange in America. They simply don\u2019t understand it.
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>No, and in the UK, they only do it for certain types of property, but what I love \u2013 and I\u2019m going to be very UK biased \u2013 is they put a price guide on there really low and sometimes it goes for 50 or 60% more than the price guide and the buyers go, \u201cWell, I thought it might go for more.\u201d
\nThat\u2019s what free market is. If you want to start controlling the market, we won\u2019t have the property market we have. I\u2019m worried that we\u2019ll start taking more steps along those lines, banning offers over, banning certain wording. \u201cYou can\u2019t do this, you can\u2019t do this,\u201d you think \u201cWell, really?\u201d It\u2019s just getting a little bit crazy for me.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>One of the other things that I\u2019m really concerned about is this exaggeration of what can happen when you list with a certain agent. Let me give you an example. I don\u2019t know how you feel about this because we haven\u2019t discussed it yet, but I\u2019m talking about websites like \u2013 and I\u2019m going to mention them \u2013 OpenAgent, where they actually freely advertise that \u201cIf you come with us, we\u2019ll put you in touch with the best agent in your area, and look what you can do; you can actually get $100,000 over your reserve.\u201d I think that is really bad.
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>I actually don\u2019t know how\u2026Usually when you advertise any product and you make any claim, that claim has to be backed up with evidence. Unless they very cleverly have found a property\u2026 Let\u2019s be honest, you could have found a Sydney seller in the last 12 months who possibly had used that service, that their reserve or price guide was $1.1 million and they got $1.2 million.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>I actually put it to them when I had them on the show, \u201cLook, in that particular case, would you accept the fact that it probably had nothing to do with the agent, but it had everything to do with the fact that you had a low reserve?\u201d
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, exactly.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>They denied that. But the other thing that really annoys me is they say they\u2019re going to put you in touch with the best agents in your area, but they don\u2019t; they actually put you in touch with the agent who has agreed to pay them a 20% referral fee.
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>Okay, there you go. We\u2019re going to be singing from the same hymn sheet on this one. My problem with any service that directs you to people\u2026 And I\u2019m going to use a name now. Let\u2019s say for example Trip Advisor because it\u2019s so huge. When I look at reviews on there, the people who have reviewed get no kickback, no benefit whatsoever, just because they want to share their good or bad experience.
\nThe problem with any of these sorts of sites or their component element is what\u2019s actually happening is that if there are ten agents in your town and only eight of them have agreed to sign up with this company, the other two agents might be the ones for you. You\u2019re not going to hear from them. It\u2019s not unbiased.
\nI know that it obviously doesn\u2019t cost the customer anything, but somebody has to make money. That\u2019s how they\u2019re making money. To me, if you ever want to buy advice, you really should be buying advice and paying yourself.
\nThis is the trouble with buildings and pest inspection. I kind of really want to buy one myself so that I can speak to the inspector, possibly be around when they go and have a look, and make sure that I\u2019m happy with that inspector, that he or she seems to be looking at it from my point of view. Perhaps for example I\u2019m planning to knock down one half of the house and extend it, they\u2019ll say \u201cLook, this part of the house is terrible\u201d \u201cDon\u2019t worry, just can you focus on that bit we\u2019re keeping?\u201d Or something along those lines.
\nI know it\u2019s not always preferable or you think it isn\u2019t preferable\u2026 It\u2019s like using a proper, licensed buyer\u2019s agent. You know how they get their fee, therefore the houses or properties that they\u2019re going to show you, there\u2019s no bias.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>That\u2019s right, exactly.
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>It doesn\u2019t matter whether you buy that one, that one, or that one. They hope to sell you one of them, but they\u2019ll only get a fee from the one that works best for you, so the system works for the customer. But when you\u2019re not actually paying for a service, I don\u2019t know how it can quite work for you.<\/b>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Good on you, Andrew. Andrew Winter from Selling Houses Australia<\/i>, a great show. Make sure you check it out.
\n 
\nBessie Hassan<\/b>
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Consumer advocate Bessie Hassan from Finder.com.au joins me to talk about an alarming piece of research that\u2019s come out that talks about how Australians are borrowing more in their housing debt. No doubt this is on the back of cheaper home loans.
\nBessie, this is a bit of a concern, isn\u2019t it?
\nBessie:<\/b>\u00a0 It is a bit of a concern. We\u2019re seeing people overextending themselves, actually. With interest rates at an all-time low, people are perhaps getting a little carried away and taking out more than they can afford in the long run. The key here is to always factor in a buffer. We always recommend a buffer of 2% to 3% to allow for any future rate rises if and when they do happen.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. We\u2019ll talk more about that buffer in a moment, because I think that\u2019s the key point we want to get through in this message. But I see here that housing debt per Australian adult has actually doubled over the last 11 years, and when you think about property prices, if you look at what\u2019s happened to property, it\u2019s more than doubled over that same period, though, hasn\u2019t it?
\nBessie<\/b>:\u00a0 That\u2019s correct. Increasing property prices have pushed up loan sizes, but this is growing much faster than inflation. Inflation would have only increased by about 34% in the same 11-year period. Instead we\u2019ve seen property skyrocket in value by a whopping 136%. Now that\u2019s particularly property debt that I\u2019m referring to.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. We want to get some tips here on managing our debt a lot better, but you mentioned there about the buffer, and I think this is a key thing. Explain to me how that buffer works and how we can factor that into our borrowing.
\nBessie<\/b>:\u00a0 Absolutely. With interest rates at historic lows at the moment, borrowers really do need to be cautious. Take into account that while interest rates are super low at this stage, they are probably going to rise, and all signs are pointing to a rate rise in the future. This means that during the life of your mortgage, which is usually a 30-year mortgage, you will probably have to encounter at least a few rate rises.
\nWith that in mind, you should have a buffer of 2% to 3%. So if rates are currently hovering around the 5% mark, when you are doing your finances, when you are taking out that mortgage, ensure that you would be able to pay it back if rates were to be around the 7% or 8% mark.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, and when times are good, too, you should be looking at things like lump-sum payments, making fortnightly or even weekly payments, to get the principal down as fast as you can.
\nBessie<\/b>:\u00a0 Exactly. Simply put, a decrease in how much you owe is probably the simplest way to cut down risk.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes.
\nBessie<\/b>:\u00a0 You can pay off your mortgage sooner by doing things such as that \u2013 making fortnightly or weekly repayments or lump-sum repayments. Also having an offset account is a great option for those looking to repay their loan sooner. It\u2019s like a regular transaction account but directly linked to your mortgage account, of course, which offsets the amount of interest that you\u2019re paying against the overall loan.
\nAlso, small change counts. So if you do come across that bonus or unexpected funds coming your way, put them on to the mortgage. It might look like a small amount, but in theory, anything that you can put towards it now will help to alleviate any financial pressures down the track when the rates do go up
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. I mentioned, too, earlier making fortnightly or even weekly payments. You don\u2019t have to be that extensive if you can\u2019t afford it. Even rounding it up \u2013 and you were hinting there at rounding up and putting in lump sums \u2013 but even if you can only make an extra $10, $15, or even $20 a week as an additional payment, it\u2019s all going to help.
\nBessie<\/b>:\u00a0 That\u2019s right. Over the life of your loan, you probably could save thousands of dollars. Take fortnightly for example, if you do make fortnightly payments you end up making that one additional payment per year, which helps to decrease your balance, which then reduces the amount of the interest that can be charged to your loan account. So it really is a win-win. By doing so, as well, you can probably cut down your loan term<\/i> by an average of five or six years.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Consumer advocate from Finder.com.au, Bessie Hassan. Thanks for talking to us, Bessie.
\nBessie<\/b>:\u00a0 Thank you.
\n 
\nEmily Power<\/b>
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You might have heard about a story that revolves around a young lady in her 30s receiving pocket money from her parents. She\u2019s a property reporter with Domain, Emily Powers, the young lady concerned, and Emily joins me now.
\nGood morning, Emily. How are you?
\nEmily:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019m good. Good morning. I\u2019m well. How are you?
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 I\u2019m very well. Tell me what\u2019s happening here. Is this how you\u2019re getting into the property market?
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 This is. This is how I\u2019m wiping old debts and getting into the property market.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, good on you, I say.
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 Thank you. Now, this<\/i> pocket money is from my own salary, and I\u2019ll tell you how it works. Each fortnight, my salary goes into a bank account that only my parents know the Internet banking passwords to, and from that, they fling me $400 a fortnight out of that as my salary. And I live on that.
\nNow, I don\u2019t live at home; I rent. So out of that bulk salary comes my rent, my bills, health insurance, car repayments, all those sorts of major things. And with $200 of that a week, I buy my groceries, I put petrol in my car, I pay for my public transport, any toiletries or incidentals, and if there\u2019s a little bit left over, I will have takeaway coffees, maybe a night out with my friends, which I did last night, for example. We had a $10 bowl of noodles and I had a $5 ice cream afterwards. That\u2019s my big night out. Because I\u2019m saving for a home.
\nI was a fashion writer before I worked in real estate, and through a series of events in my life \u2013 I had an ovarian tumor, needed treatment, there was a big medical bill, then became a fashion writer \u2013 and already having a medical debt in my 20s, I started unbridled spending on my credit card. I felt I had to keep up appearances. I wanted to look the part of the fashion writer.
\nI clocked up $14,000 in credit card debt over five years. It got to mid last year and I said to my parents, \u201cI\u2019m so far behind the 8-ball in terms of having a property. Not only am I in debt, but I can\u2019t possibly start saving until I turn my habits around and my balance sheet around.\u201d
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Was it last year this all started, Emily?
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, it was \u2013 in August last year I started. It was my dad\u2019s idea, too.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 So, roughly eight months down the track so far?
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. That\u2019s right.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 And how\u2019s it going for you?
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 You might be surprised to hear I don\u2019t know how much is in the account. I have no idea how much I\u2019ve saved, because I don\u2019t want to know. I had such an unhealthy relationship with money for so long, I decided that I don\u2019t need to know what\u2019s in that bank account; I just need to focus on developing good, frugal habits around that $200 a week that I have.
\nI said to folks that I only want to know when there\u2019s enough for an apartment deposit. I\u2019m aiming to save $50,000 in two years.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 $50,000 in two years.
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 I\u2019m about a quarter of the way through, I suppose, if you do the math. I\u2019m on the way. And I\u2019ve wiped my credit card debt. It\u2019s gone.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, you\u2019re well and truly on the way if you\u2019re a quarter of the way through, and I think we calculated roughly six to eight months you\u2019ve been doing it.
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 You\u2019d better hit Fairfax up for a pay increase, too.
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 I don\u2019t know if that\u2019s going to be possible. But I\u2019ll keep working hard. I\u2019ll put my head down and my bum up and hope.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 We\u2019ll put in a good word for you. Can I ask you, also, have you inspired any of your friends to do the same thing?
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 No. I have to admit I haven\u2019t. They all think I\u2019m a little bit crazy, although some of them are in admiration of me but feel that it would just be a bit too hard for them to do. Reactions to this method have been mixed on social media. A lot of people have slammed me, called me immature and an embarrassment to myself.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Really? Some people are so unfair, aren\u2019t they?
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 But while I haven\u2019t taken it on board, I\u2019ve certainly listened to the criticisms, because there\u2019s no doubt that I did have a terrible<\/i> relationship with money and I\u2019m in this position through my own fault. Others, however, have been in admiration and decided to look forensically at their own finances.
\nI think money is a very uncomfortable conversation to have. If by me speaking out about it encourages another young person who has credit card debts \u2013 and we all know that there are many of us who do \u2013 if it encourages them to talk to somebody they trust, whether it\u2019s a parent, a grandparent, or go and see a financial planner and turn things around for themselves, then it\u2019s all been worth it if just one person decides to turn themselves around.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Emily, we saw you on The Project<\/i>, of course, and I understand you got a very funny text from your grandfather after that.
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, I did. Gorgi Coghlan, one of the panelists, asked me whether any sugar daddies could get in touch with me if they felt they could improve my financial balance sheet, and I said, \u201cYeah, why not? Give me a call.\u201d My grandfather who\u2019s such a card \u2013 he\u2019s 90 \u2013 texted me afterwards and said, \u201cEmily, I saw you on the show. Well done. There could be some sugar daddies out there. Just be careful. Chat later.\u201d
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Good on him.
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. I have my family in support of me. It was my father\u2019s idea, and that conversation in August last year where I\u2019d hidden from them everything that I\u2019d been doing financially, and to pour it out on the table and have him come up with a solution that is working so well for me\u2026
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 I think you\u2019re an inspiration, Emily. I really do. Just before I let you go, have you decided what you want to buy? I know you said an apartment; is it going to be a new one?
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 No, I\u2019ve decided not to go off the plan. I\u2019d like to buy something older and add a little bit of value to it \u2013 something around the inner ring Melbourne suburbs, maybe Carnegie. It\u2019s too expensive for me to buy in close, but somewhere with a little village shopping strip, an older apartment and I\u2019ll attempt to do it up a little bit, as well, add some value hopefully. So part of that $50,000 I want to save could be some money I could dip into to add improvements. That\u2019s the plan.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, good on you. We\u2019ll touch base again and see how you\u2019re getting on. Emily, all the best and thank you for giving us some time this morning.
\nEmily<\/b>:\u00a0 Please do. I\u2019d love to update everyone how I\u2019m going and hear from others who might be on the same path.
\n 
\nMichael Yardney<\/b>
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 One of the things we have learned is that the market moves in different cycles \u2013 not only cycles in time but even cycles around the country. Different markets move at different paces. You look at the Sydney market, and boy, hasn\u2019t that boomed? You shouldn\u2019t get disenchanted thinking that you might have missed it.
\nI\u2019m going to ask that question of Michael Yardney, because I know you\u2019re a sophisticated investor, Michael.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s a nice word. Thank you, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I can say it; probably, you can\u2019t. But you\u2019ve been investing for quite a long time now. What are the lessons you\u2019ve learned from sitting back and looking at these cycles?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 There have been lots of lessons, because when I first started investing, I didn\u2019t even understand the concept of property cycles. I just bought and I bought close to where I lived or bought close to where I went to school. I was lucky. What happened was the Gough Whitlam government came in. We had massive inflation. Property values doubled in five years, not just mine; I just happened to be at the right place at the right time.
\nKevin, one of the worst things that can happen to a beginning investor is to get it right the first time because you think you\u2019re smarter than you are.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 There\u2019s a great lesson in that, too. The other thing I think we\u2019ve seen, too, is that while booms don\u2019t last forever, neither do busts.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Sure, they don\u2019t. Interestingly, one of the lessons I learned along the way is that property markets act irrationally. When I started to learn about cycles, I started to study them and I started to look at the four phases of the cycle and what\u2019s going on.
\nI guess the lesson I\u2019ve learned in the last years as we\u2019ve dug deeper and researched more is property markets aren\u2019t only driven by fundamentals; they\u2019re often driven by the irrational and erratic behavior of an unstable crowd of other investors.
\nThe lesson is never get carried away too much by those booms that you mentioned, Kevin, and never get too disenchanted by the property slump.
\nCan I give you an example of what\u2019s currently happening?
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, please do.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Sydney was the hottest property market in Australia for a number of years, and at the end of last year, APRA came in, restricted some lending criteria, talked about a bubble that\u2019s going to burst, created concern. The media created concern. People in New South Wales started to second-guess themselves and question, \u201cIs it too late?\u201d
\nSo the Sydney market stalled at the end of last year and has dropped back a little bit this year not because of the lack of fundamentals \u2013 because Sydney is creating more jobs, has huge population growth, and does not have the oversupply that Melbourne and Brisbane have. It\u2019s not the fundamentals that have held back the market; it\u2019s consumer crowd confidence that has slowed it \u2013 and it\u2019s starting to pick up again.
\nThe lesson is booms don\u2019t last forever. Be prepared, don\u2019t be surprised and don\u2019t overreact when the market changes phase.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 In the same way, I guess you have to be very aware and beware of doomsayers.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 There\u2019s a conga line of doomsayers who come from overseas each year and tell us that we\u2019re going to have a market crash. The latest one was Jonathan Templar who predicted property values are going to drop because of what happened in Moranbah.
\nLast year, I remember you interviewed Harry Dent, and he predicted then that by the middle of last year, property values were going to fall because of what was happening in China. There is one after the other. It goes way to back to Steven Keen who had to walk from Canberra to Kosciuszko with a t-shirt saying, \u201cAsk me how wrong I was about property prices.\u201d
\nOften, they have an agenda of selling a book or selling courses. But these are powerful emotions and one the media uses to grab our attention. I think, sadly, some people miss out on the opportunity to develop their own financial independence because they listen to those messages. They listen to the messages of people who want to deflate the financial dreams of their fellow Australians.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 And there are a number of them around. You mentioned earlier one thing that you\u2019ve done. Probably you did it purely by accident at the start. That is you developed a system. How important is that, especially in the cycles?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Kevin, I didn\u2019t have a system to start with. I bought emotionally like everybody else, and it took me a while to do it. But I think sophisticated investors do follow a system because what it does it take the emotion out of decisions. It also ensures they don\u2019t speculate. Look, it may be boring, but it makes it profitable.
\nTo be honest, almost anyone can make money during a property boom because the market covers up the mistakes. But many investors without a system are going to find themselves in financial trouble when the market turns, as it did in the regional towns or mining towns. I remember Warren Buffet\u2019s great saying, \u201cYou only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.\u201d
\nAgain, I think you have to have the right system for the right area for the right sort of property. You have to understand what the end game is. If you do have a system, then you\u2019re more likely to have consistent profits, you\u2019re more likely to reduce your risks, and you\u2019re more likely to have an exciting life.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You said, a few moments ago, that in a property boom, anyone can get rich. How important is it to be aware that you don\u2019t go chasing those fast-money-type schemes?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s a good question because most of us want to get rich. Only this morning, I got an e-mail from Kelly who I actually suggested she doesn\u2019t buy just yet \u2013 she waits until she builds up a little bit income, more savings, and more serviceability.
\nShe thanked me for it because she said, \u201cI keep reading the front of those property magazines and I read about people who got 20 or 24 properties, they bought 10 properties in 10 years,\u201d and she feels she has missed out. I think we\u2019ve also heard the downside to a lot of those stories when they\u2019ve actually bought the wrong properties.
\nTo me, it\u2019s not how many properties you have; you really have to own the correct assets and try not get influenced, to get swayed, by the latest \u201cget rich quick\u201d artist with a great story about how you can join them and become stupendously wealthy overnight.
\nI know their stories are compelling, I can understand they can be hard to resist, but I think they pander to those people who want to give up their day jobs and get involved in property full-time, suddenly become a developer, suddenly flip properties, renovate full-time. Patience is an investment virtue, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Therein lies the problem, too, because for a lot of people, they do go chasing those \u201cget rich quick\u201d schemes and they get anxious about missing the cycle and so on instead of looking at it as a business. This is the business of property.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 It is. You\u2019re in the business of property. During the last boom, many investors forgot that age-old adage of the fundamentals of buying the best property they can afford in proven locations. They went for glamorous things, and now they\u2019re the casualties of that.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Earlier in the show, too, I was talking to someone about the importance of having a buffer. It\u2019s very important if you\u2019re looking at this as a business, too, that you need to set it up to make sure you can move through these cycles.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 It gets back to what we were saying a bit earlier that the boom-and-bust cycle will continue to occur. Every year, there will be unknown X factors coming out of the blue to make your best-laid plans look a bit shaky. That\u2019s the importance of having financial buffers to see you through, to help you ride the property cycle. That means the roller coaster ride won\u2019t be as dramatic.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Bottom line for us, Michael?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Cycles are inevitable in any investment market, and our property markets, they\u2019re behaving normally. They\u2019re working their way through the cycles. Kevin, I think with lower inflation and lower interest rates, the cycles won\u2019t be as dramatic moving forward \u2013 so we won\u2019t have as high highs or as low lows \u2013 but that doesn\u2019t mean there aren\u2019t opportunities out there for property investors.
\nI think the message is well-located properties in the capital cities are going to do well, but remember, of course, each state is at its own stage of the property cycle, so you don\u2019t really have to try and pick the cycle; just stick to a strategy and when your finances are ready, when you are able to do it, get to the next property, don\u2019t try to be too smart.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 The bottom line: be selective and think long-term. My guest has been Michael Yardney<\/a> from Metropole Property Strategists<\/a>.
\nMichael, thanks again for your time.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 My pleasure, Kevin.
\n 
\nSimon Pressley<\/b>
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 There was an interesting comparison I saw recently where Simon Pressley, who we\u2019ve had on the show before from Propertyology, was making a comparison between the Brisbane market in Queensland and Hobart in Tasmania, talking about the similar areas and picking both of them, actually, as somewhat hot spots for this year. Simon joins me.
\nSimon, thanks for your time.
\nSimon:<\/b>\u00a0 Always a pleasure, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Interesting to see. I\u2019ve never really seen anyone make that kind of comparison before between Brisbane and Hobart. I think that Hobart market, in particular, is one that I\u2019ve been waiting for almost a decade to see improve. Why are you picking Hobart? Brisbane, to me, is a bit of a standout, but I can\u2019t understand Hobart.
\nSimon:<\/b>\u00a0 Great question. I\u2019ll probably surprise you and all listeners, Kevin. Propertyology has been investing in property in Hobart for two years. We obviously keep our trade secrets close to our chest, but we always have a keen interest in property economics, because we only work for investors, and property shelter. Wherever there are going to be improving economies that are sustained, logic suggests there will be more shelter.
\nFor a couple of years, we\u2019ve been quite excited about the outlook for Tasmania\u2019s economy albeit very conscious that the recent past has had some challenges. It fits very well. The industries that drive Tasmania\u2019s economy are really starting to prosper from the Asian Century, which is a money trail we\u2019ve been following for some time.
\nWe gave Hobart the green light in terms of macro level research and started investing there two years ago. Affordability is one thing \u2013 and Hobart has always been more affordable than other capital cities \u2013 but it\u2019s economic makeup that excites us the most.
\nClients who we got in there, say, 18 months ago have already achieved in the vicinity of 15% growth. Outside of Sydney and Melbourne, I suggest there are very few places anywhere in Australia that have achieved that. Hobart very rarely gets the headlines because it\u2019s Tasmania, it\u2019s that little forgotten island that not many people think of.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You\u2019re talking about great growth there, 15% over a couple of years. Are there particular areas in Hobart that are improving better than others? Is it down by the water or are there some suburbs that are standout?
\nSimon:<\/b>\u00a0 We\u2019re not suburb-specific. We\u2019re street-specific. One of the luxuries that people have in Hobart is it\u2019s water everywhere, really. On the mainland here, it\u2019s rare for us to have a property with a water view, isn\u2019t it? But in Tasmania, it\u2019s everywhere, and they sort of take that for granted.
\nNo particular suburbs. As I said, we\u2019re street-specific. We always place a lot of value on buying properties in close proximity to jobs. We take a keen interest in zoning changes, traffic congestion. There are fundamentals we follow in every city, not just Hobart.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Those barometers that you\u2019re talking about are fairly longstanding. They\u2019re nothing new. You touched earlier on some of the things, the economy of that area. What has changed there to pique your attention?
\nSimon:<\/b>\u00a0 Probably the reason people don\u2019t consider Hobart is for so long, it\u2019s unemployment rate was so high, but when unemployment rates are reported, it\u2019s generally, \u201cTasmania is doing this; Queensland is doing that\u201d which is not really useful for a property investor, because we want to know about the city. Hobart\u2019s unemployment rate hasn\u2019t been that bad, and now it\u2019s actually below the national average.
\nIts main industries are really starting to prosper. In no particular order here: tourism is going off the Richter scale. The number of international and domestic visitors going not just to Hobart but to Tasmania broadly is the fastest rise of growth in all of Australia for its visitor numbers. That directly affects jobs in cafes, hotels, restaurants \u2013 the retail and accommodation sector, basically \u2013 so it\u2019s off the planet.
\nThe Chinese president made a formal visit to Hobart about 15 months ago now. It\u2019s the first time that a Chinese president has ever visited Tasmania. All the images from the two or three days he spent there were beamed back to their homeland for 1.3 billion people every single day. Every meeting he went to was beamed back there, so that has directly affected the tourism market.
\nIts advanced manufacturing sector has a wonderful opportunity. The agricultural products on Tasmania are world class, whether it\u2019s beef, cheese, or various beverages. The manufacturing sector is growing, which creates jobs, which creates demand for accommodation. The third main industry is its international student market. Hobart is unofficially \u201cuniversity city,\u201d and the universities are expanding, largely to tap into the Asian market.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Let\u2019s have a look at Brisbane because you mentioned the two cities Hobart and Brisbane as the two areas that you are pretty excited about. The indicators there for Hobart or for Tasmania tourism, Chinese interest, manufacturing, and students, have they also applied in Queensland or in Brisbane, or are there different measures there for you?
\nSimon:<\/b>\u00a0 We are less certain about Brisbane\u2019s economy. We\u2019ve felt for some time that Queensland has a lot of potential in its economy. But for a variety of reasons, its confidence isn\u2019t as good as what it\u2019s been in, say, Victoria and New South Wales, and we\u2019re still waiting for the signs that that\u2019s going to happen. We think investing in Brisbane is not a bad decision; pound for pound, though, I would buy a property in Hobart over Brisbane every day of the week.
\nI\u2019m not just saying that; I\u2019ve done that. Two years ago, I purchased in Hobart for my own portfolio. Brisbane is more affordable than Sydney and Melbourne, yes, but it\u2019s always been that way, so in isolation, that shouldn\u2019t be a reason for any investor to buy in Brisbane. The job market in Brisbane has been improving, but it\u2019s still patchy. When we follow the job\u2019s numbers, one month, it\u2019s good growth and the next month, it\u2019s come backwards a bit. We\u2019re just not getting that consistency there.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I want to get your opinion on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. Before I do that, I want to take you out to the Ipswich area, which is having phenomenal growth, and we\u2019ve talked about that in the past. Is that an area where you would tend to look because of what\u2019s happening out there? There are going to be some big improvements in employment, as well.
\nSimon:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, I think on the employment front and the general confidence front, Ipswich has it over Brisbane, I feel, at the moment. Its job growth is better. They\u2019ve always had a very proactive, very energetic mayor out there, Paul Pisasale. He\u2019s a real go-getter. So there are a number of good things on the job front for Ipswich.
\nTempering that, though, is the supply sort of things. There\u2019s a heck of a lot of land on the outskirts of Ipswich, always has been and it\u2019s very developable land, as well. The big Queensland developers have land-banked that for some time, so they control supply.
\nIpswich certainly, definitely will go okay. But it\u2019s a market where supply will probably always be a little bit ahead of demand. When the dynamics happen in that order, you tend to get growth but not spectacular growth like we\u2019ve seen, say, in Melbourne and Sydney.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Gold and SunshineCoasts, what\u2019s your view on what\u2019s happening there?
\nSimon:<\/b>\u00a0 The Gold Coast, we\u2019ve been bullish on for probably 18 months now. Its economy is arguably one of the best in Australia at the moment, and as far forward as we can forecast, it looks like continuing to be that way.
\nIt\u2019s not all related to the Commonwealth Games, although there are some big projects that are being built for the Games. Of course, as we get close to the Games, it\u2019ll be great for tourism trade, as well. But there have been a number of very significant infrastructure projects for the Gold Coast, which has created lots of jobs and improved amenities.
\nPeople do need to be mindful, though, that mayor Tom Tate is a developer by trade and you always need to keep your eye on the building approval volumes on the Gold Coast, especially in the apartment market. It\u2019s not in oversupply now, but it certainly has the potential to be that way in the coming years.
\nThe Sunshine Coast, it\u2019s a lifestyle location. It will go okay, but we\u2019ve never been greatly excited about the SunshineCoast. A beautiful part of the world to live, but whatever broader Australian property markets will do, Sunshine Coast typically follows that sort of trend, nothing unspectacular.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Simon Pressley, thank you very much for that update and that inside information on the Hobart market. Simon Pressley, of course, from Propertyology.
\nThanks for your time, Simon.
\nSimon:<\/b>\u00a0 Any time, Kevin.
\n 
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Amy Mylius from Cate Bakos Buyers Advocates, takes us through some areas she sees buyers falter in their due diligence. Star of Selling Houses Australia, Andrew Winter, is frustrated about the many and varied rules that are applied to buying and selling real estate…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":5062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,11,24],"tags":[103],"class_list":["post-7646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-shows","tag-podcasts"],"yoast_head":"\nCrazy rules make Andrew Winter wild + 2 unusual markets tipped to be big improvers - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/crazy-rules-make-andrew-winter-wild-2-unusual-markets-tipped-to-be-big-improvers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Crazy rules make Andrew Winter wild + 2 unusual markets tipped to be big improvers - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  Amy Mylius from Cate Bakos Buyers Advocates, takes us through some areas she sees buyers falter in their due diligence. 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