{"id":6923,"date":"2016-02-04T01:00:28","date_gmt":"2016-02-03T14:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=6923"},"modified":"2016-02-04T01:00:28","modified_gmt":"2016-02-03T14:00:28","slug":"nhan-nguyen-australian-property-market-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/nhan-nguyen-australian-property-market-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Nhan Nguyen &#8211; Australian Property Market 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<br \/>\nOur guest today:\u00a0<strong>Nhan Nguyen<\/strong> from Advanced Property Strategies.<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Transcript:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><b>Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 And a further look at the 2015 market, looking into 2016, this year, Nhan Nguyen joins me from Advanced Property Strategies.<br \/>\nGood day, Nhan.<br \/>\n<b>Nhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Hey, Kevin.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Mate, are your strategies going to be different in 2016 from what they were last year?<br \/>\n<b>Nhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Look, I think that I\u2019m a conservative developer investor. My strategies won\u2019t necessarily change. I might be a little bit more conservative because the run has been a lot longer than I anticipated, but I think now I\u2019m just looking for something unique. I think exit strategy is going to be very important this year, just like any other year.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Are you looking only at Southeast Queensland, or are you going to be looking all around Australia?<br \/>\n<b>Nhan<\/b>:\u00a0 My preference is mainly Southeast Queensland. However, I do have properties in North Queensland. Pretty much, I\u2019ll be focusing in Southeast Queensland, yes.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Many of the people we\u2019ve been talking to over the last few weeks are saying there are some glimmers of hope about the Brisbane market, that it\u2019s likely to be one of the improvers of 2016. Do you agree with that?<br \/>\n<b>Nhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Look, I think it will be quite steady. I\u2019ve been quite surprised last year with APRA, what the effects of that were. I know their intentions were to slow down the bigger capital cities from the boom-or-bust cycle that they were concerned about. I\u2019m really surprised that the Brisbane\/Southeast Queensland market has continued to bubble along at the rate that it has.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 One of the questions I\u2019m really enjoying asking all of our experts are the indicators, the signs that you look for that the market may be shifting, changing, and it\u2019s time to invest. Can you give us a bit of a guide as to what you\u2019ll be looking at this year?<br \/>\n<b>Nhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. Indicators are very, very important. I\u2019m laughing because that\u2019s what we always look for. One of them is clearance rates. I know in December, in New South Wales, clearance rates had dropped considerably from three or six months ago. Victoria has slowed down a little bit. Queensland had dropped a little bit, but relative to the rest of the clearance rates in Queensland, it hasn\u2019t dropped much at all. Clearance rates is definitely a big indicator that I\u2019m always looking for at auctions.<br \/>\nThe other indicator I often look at is building approvals. You can find that on the Australian Bureau of Statistics \u2013 seeing how many building approvals are actually going through and builds are actually starting.<br \/>\nI can go through a few more indicators if you want.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Please. But just on that building approvals, is there a tipping point? Do you look for where buildings are going to go up, or is it a bit like \u201cBuild it and they will come\u201d?<br \/>\n<b>Nhan<\/b>:\u00a0 That is part of the theory behind it. I think building approvals also overlaps with what people are demanding. Let\u2019s say, owner occupiers, if they\u2019re wanting to build their own homes, to get out of the ground. It\u2019s just more so looking at the trend. Is the trend going up, or is the trend going down?<br \/>\nObviously, if the trend is going up, there\u2019s more demand for buildings. If the trend is going down, there\u2019s less demand. We\u2019re looking at indicators of supply and demand, and more so, oversupply is probably more what I\u2019m leading towards.<br \/>\nAnother one is development approvals \u2013 finding out where the concentration of development approvals is. There are actually a lot of units coming out of the ground, you may have heard and you\u2019re probably aware of, especially within one or two kilometers of CBD, that\u2019s where a lot of high rises are often coming out of the ground. When you have, let\u2019s say, 2000 or 4000-square meters, you can put hundreds and hundreds of units on there, and sometimes, the unit market is the first to be oversupplied.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What are some of the other indicators? You said you\u2019d be able to run through a few.<br \/>\n<b>Nhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Another one is exit strategy, and also sales rates for developments. A lot of valuers out there talk to a lot of developers and are looking at sales rates. If sales rates are going up or sales rates are going down, that\u2019s another source of information that you have to really study intimately.<br \/>\nSome developers have really good sales channels, and if those sales channels dry up due to various reasons, whether the market has changed or finance has changed, that\u2019s definitely another indicator.<br \/>\nPostcode restrictions. If you look at the GFC, finance really determines the market. If finance is hard to get, then people cannot buy, and therefore, sales are slowed down. There\u2019s a reason for postcode restrictions with certain suburbs and certain towns.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Where would you get that information from, Nhan?<br \/>\n<b>Nhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Oftentimes, they\u2019re published via finance brokers. You can go through finance brokers. They have various newsletters issued from time to time. That would be my definite suggestion there. Talk to your bank or local banker. They have a list. They can basically tell you which postcodes to steer away from.<br \/>\nWhat happens there is the banks reduce the amount of lending possible for a particular project. Instead of lending there to 80% or 90%, they\u2019ll cut it down to, let\u2019s say, 70%, and that will change the dynamics of the lending situation there.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Nhan, what about aspirational buyers \u2013 that is people who have started to buy up so that we see the medians start to creep up, and also an increase in wages? Is that an indicator for you, too?<br \/>\n<b>Nhan<\/b>:\u00a0 That is an indicator. More so in the background, that\u2019s an indicator. Another indicator that will reflect part of that is what the Reserve Bank thinks about interest rates. I, personally, think that interest rates this year will come down a little bit further just based on all the feedback that has been mentioned out there.<br \/>\nI think wages is an indicator; however, it\u2019s more so about people\u2019s sentiment. Sometimes people\u2019s wages are low but if they\u2019re really, really gung ho on property, they\u2019ll go and buy property either way whether they believe they can afford it or not. It\u2019s more so about confidence and sentiment in the market, just like the share market.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Just to sum it up for us, Nhan, what do you think we\u2019ll be saying about the 2016 market at this time next year?<br \/>\n<b>Nhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Look, I think the 2016 market will be full of surprises. I\u2019ve found that when I did my predictions at the end of 2012, I was completely wrong. I found oftentimes \u2013 I was reading a book recently by a billionaire who founded PayPal \u2013 the predictions are generally reflective of the person doing the prediction. My prediction at the end of 2012 was that the market was going to be flat for another five years, and I was completely wrong. It was just what was happening at that point in time.<br \/>\nI think 2016 is going to be a clear year. What I mean by that is in 2015, the APRA came in. It gave the market what we call a soft landing, as opposed to a handbrake with the GFC, and so it will adjust. If the market slows down, it won\u2019t be much. It\u2019ll just be incremental to allow the market to naturally adjust rather than a handbrake fall off the edge of a cliff.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Always great talking to you, Nhan Nguyen from Advanced Property Strategies. All the best for this year, mate, and we look forward to talking to you during 2016. Thanks, mate.<br \/>\n<b>Nhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Thanks so much.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Our guest today:\u00a0Nhan Nguyen from Advanced Property Strategies. &nbsp; Transcript: Kevin:\u00a0 And a further look at the 2015 market, looking into 2016, this year, Nhan Nguyen joins me from Advanced Property Strategies. Good day, Nhan. Nhan:\u00a0 Hey, Kevin. Kevin:\u00a0 Mate, are your strategies going&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":6924,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,11,13,17,25,27],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-6923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment","category-sponsored-channels","category-trends-topic","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nhan Nguyen - Australian Property Market 2016 - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/nhan-nguyen-australian-property-market-2016\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nhan Nguyen - Australian Property Market 2016 - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&nbsp; Our guest today:\u00a0Nhan Nguyen from Advanced Property Strategies. &nbsp; Transcript: Kevin:\u00a0 And a further look at the 2015 market, looking into 2016, this year, Nhan Nguyen joins me from Advanced Property Strategies. 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