{"id":6901,"date":"2016-01-29T12:00:47","date_gmt":"2016-01-29T01:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=6901"},"modified":"2016-01-29T12:00:47","modified_gmt":"2016-01-29T01:00:47","slug":"why-simon-pressley-is-concerned-about-melbourne-women-should-invest-in-industrial-property","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/why-simon-pressley-is-concerned-about-melbourne-women-should-invest-in-industrial-property\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Simon Pressley is concerned about Melbourne + Women should invest in Industrial property"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nThis week we round out our series to kick the year off as we have been catching up with a number of our experts to seek their opinion on what we will be saying about the property market this time next year, the big property surprises of 2015 and we ask them where they got it right – and wrong \u2013 and the lessons from last year.
\nOur experts this week include Rachel Barnes<\/strong> from investor friendly agents who says she was blown away by Brisbane and she tells us where she would invest in Victoria, also Simon Pressley<\/strong> from Propertyology who gives us a list of the areas to watch in every Australian state and tells us why he is concerned about Melbourne.
\nAlso advice coming from Nhan Nguye<\/strong>n and Patrick Bright<\/strong> and we hear from the author of a book that sets out a guide to women who want to invest in industrial real estate.
\nMichael Yardney<\/strong><\/a> joins us as well, as he details his 5 stranded approach to select the best property.
\n <\/p>\n

Transcripts:<\/h4>\n

Rachel Barnes<\/h3>\n

Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>So far over the last three weeks, we\u2019ve been inviting a lot of our experts who share some thoughts with us from time to time to tell us what they think about 2015, the year that\u2019s just gone, and have a look at the year of 2016. Of course, we\u2019re already one month into 2016. Joining me this time is Rachel Barnes from investorfriendlyagents.com.
\nRachel, thanks for your time.
\nRachel:\u00a0 <\/b>Pleasure, Kevin.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Here we are one month into 2016. Let\u2019s reflect back on 2015. Any big surprises last year for you?
\nRachel:\u00a0 <\/b>Not really. I think it was a bit of a bland year in relation to property, but that\u2019s probably because I\u2019m in Adelaide, South Australia, rather than some of the more eastern states. I did go to Brisbane a few times, and I was quite blown away by the prices for some of the properties that were going there. The smallest lot with the oldest house on it with all these restrictions was going for ridiculous prices. I think there\u2019s been a bit of a buying frenzy, people getting a bit scared they wouldn\u2019t get into the market in time.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes. What about the Adelaide market? How is that looking, Rachel?
\nRachel:\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s been fairly flat along certain areas, but it\u2019s the same with anything; you can\u2019t pick just one area and assume that everything goes along that vein. There have been certain pockets that have been doing really well in 2015, and I\u2019m sure they\u2019re still going to grow in 2016.
\nObviously some of the unemployment areas in the north cause an issue when it comes to holding prices down in that area. There\u2019s starting to become more infrastructure done down south now, as well, and for other parts, like Port Adelaide.
\nEspecially Port Adelaide, it\u2019s an area that for many years people have talked about it\u2019s going to be the next boom, it\u2019s going to be the next boom, but nothing really has happened. But I wouldn\u2019t be surprised now that I can see more businesses going into the area, the whole place gives you more of a cosmopolitan type of feel and a bit more life in it now. It wouldn\u2019t surprise me if that\u2019s an area that starts to improve in South Australia at least.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Gentrification takes some time, and that\u2019s actually what\u2019s happening in that area, I understand. It\u2019s becoming gentrified and a lot more popular. We\u2019ve seen in different parts of Australia, that can take several years, almost up to a decade sometimes.
\nRachel:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes. When you get into property I think sometimes anybody gets in you\u2019re eager to buy property and invest. Then you go out and you hear all these exciting things that are going to happen, all the plans that are there from the council, for example, and you get in. Then as you say, it may be a decade and you can get tired of waiting or if it\u2019s negatively geared, it can be too costly to wait.
\nTherefore, you start to sometimes slow down the momentum because of people getting out of the market and putting a bit of oversupply in there for a while. I think that\u2019s starting to level out now and starting to look like an improvement for this year.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Through your website, investorfriendlyagents.com, you\u2019re talking to a lot of real estate agents and also property managers and helping them understand more about the psyche of working with investors. What would be your advice to anyone who wants to start a portfolio this year, a brand-new investor?
\nRachel:\u00a0 <\/b>I think the main thing is still buying well and working out your strategy first, so then you can decide what area you\u2019re going to be looking for. For example, if you\u2019re going to be a renovator and you want to do something close to home because you want to be doing it yourself, then you wouldn\u2019t be going perhaps further than 50 Ks out, because otherwise it\u2019s going to be too exhausting for you to try and renovate around something else that you\u2019re doing.
\nWhereas if you\u2019re looking to buy and hold and you just want the yield because you\u2019re looking for positive cash flow, you\u2019re not worried about doing the work yourself, you\u2019re happy to outsource it, then you could look at anywhere around your area, just making your mind. Then you have to look for the yield.
\nAs I said, it really gets down to what is your strategy, what suits you personally? Not what your neighbor or your friend does, but what suits you financially, personally, risk perspective-wise, and everything else. From there, you can decide your strategy, work out where the best place would be from there, and then you can perhaps employ a buyer\u2019s agent, a seller\u2019s agent to help you to find the right property that\u2019s going to suit your needs.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Just to round out our chat for today, Rachel, what are the markets that you\u2019re going to be watching in 2016? You\u2019ve mentioned a couple already, Brisbane and also down around Adelaide. Are there any other markets around Australia you\u2019ll be watching?
\nRachel:\u00a0 <\/b>There are a few places in Victoria. We haven\u2019t invested there yet, but some of the outer areas, I\u2019m just keen to see how they go, but I\u2019m not very good with crystal-balling I have to say.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>That\u2019s okay.
\nRachel:\u00a0 <\/b>As a matter of interest, I\u2019d be looking at some of the areas \u2013 not Geelong but around that area, so on the main freeways where\u2019s good communication and commuting from Melbourne.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Rachel Barnes, thank you so much for your time.
\nRachel:\u00a0 <\/b>Pleasure. Thanks, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n

Simon Pressley<\/h3>\n

Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Welcome back into the show as we continue to have a look at what\u2019s going to happen with the property markets in 2016. Joining us this time from Propertyology, Simon Pressley.
\nSimon, we asked you to have a look at into your crystal ball. What do you think we\u2019re going to be saying about the property markets this time next year?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>This time next year, Kevin, if the media are consistent, which they usually are, whatever is happening in Sidney and Melbourne is what I\u2019ll be reporting on a national sense. We\u2019re probably going to be saying property markets are flat, which is where I think Sidney and Melbourne will be by the end of 2016.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>You think we\u2019re in for a pretty flat 2016. Late last year, towards the end of the year leading up to Christmas, we did talk about how some of the smaller markets around Australia could be a nice choice. Do you still share that view?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>I think it\u2019s a common mistake of property investors. They get too focused on not just the capital cities, the three big ones \u2013 Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane. Traditionally, there\u2019s a lot better markets out there than the three big capital cities. That\u2019s certainly going to be the case in 2016 and many years yet.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Looking back on 2015, were there any surprises for you?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>The biggest surprise to us, Kevin, was Melbourne. Our 2015 market outlook report is still up on our website today, so people can look back at what we did forecast 12 months ago. Back then, we described Melbourne as a market of mixed fortunes, and we were surprised that 2015 Melbourne\u2019s jobs were as strong as what they were and we were also surprised that what is a significant oversupply housing hasn\u2019t taken grip yet. That may be a forecast 12 months ahead of ourselves.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>You think that\u2019s likely to be the case in 2016, a bit of an oversupply, and particularly in units?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>Particularly in units, yes, but also on the outskirts of Melbourne, broadacre land development has been unfolding for a few years there, yes. We still think Melbourne will be one of the better performing capital city markets in 2016, but most of that growth will be in the first half of the year. We\u2019ve maintained for a couple of years, Kevin, that we think 2017 is going to be the start of a very, very ugly period for Melbourne.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Okay. Where there any disappointments for you? Are there any bandwagons you wished you had gotten on that you didn\u2019t?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>Not too much ones that we didn\u2019t get on, but probably the biggest disappointment in general is Queensland\u2019s inability to fulfill its economic potential. We didn\u2019t predict the very early call of the Queensland state election at the start of 2015, and more importantly, we didn\u2019t anticipate the result. It was really a 50\/50 call. In the end I think it was one seat that resulted in an eventual change of government. We did actually downgrade our outlook according to the market as a result of the state election, and we didn\u2019t anticipate that that result would happen.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What\u2019s your advice for anyone wanting to start a portfolio this year?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>Education is always a key thing. I think it\u2019s great that investors get motivated and excited, but there\u2019s this tempatation to jump in, place too much emphais on the property itself rather than the market, and are probably too easily influenced by the things that they can easily read on the Internet these days.
\nA lot of the things that the broader investor takes as gospel or theories about property markets is contradicted by the historical evidence, so we would say get educated, develop a good team of advisors around you and be guided by them.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What are some of the market indicators that you watch out for that we can learn from if we\u2019re looking around Australia. We touched earlier in this show and late last year about looking at some of those smaller sweetfish type markets. What are some of the indicators that you\u2019d recommend we should be keeping an eye on?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>Great question, Kevin. I maintain that the most important indicators for property investors aren\u2019t actually found looking at historical property data. While things like vacacy rates and the number of days on market or sales volumes, they\u2019re interesting but it\u2019s really a reflection of what\u2019s occuring in a market now, and the property asset class, the best decisions are made when we form opinions about the medium to longer term, the five- to ten-year period.
\nThe answers to those more important questions are going to be found in industry trends. Really understanding Australia\u2019s economy and processing property as a commodity called shelter. If we get a greater understanding of different industry drivers and which industries have the healthiest outlook, that\u2019s going to be more useful to us to direct us into particular property markets.
\nWe feel that for the foreseeable future, the industries in Australia with the best opportunity include things like agriculture, tourism, education, and health. If property investors look for locations with those industries within its economic profile, they\u2019re more likely to land on a good performing property.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Simon, just before we close off, have you got some examples of those?
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, I do, Kevin. Looking around the country, Western Australia, places like Bunbury and Busselton in the state\u2019s south. In Tasmania, it\u2019s places like Launceston and Burnie and Devonport that have a healthy future. In Victoria, it\u2019s Sheppatron, Bendigo, and Ararat. New South Wales is spoiled, really: Griffith, Leeten, Armidale, Dubbo, Tamworth, Narrabri. We think that they all have good outlooks.
\nIn South Australia, it\u2019s Port Lincoln and the Barossa. Northern Territory, Katherine is something that we have some interest in at the moment. In Queensland, which has a lot of regional locations, Townsville is going to improve, Cairns will remain strong. Rockhampton, Toowoomba. Gympie is one to watch at. The Gold Coast we\u2019ve maintained has potential to be one of Australia\u2019s best performing markets, and the Scenic Rim is one to watch, as well.
\nKeith:\u00a0 <\/b>Always good talking to you. Simon Pressley from Propertyology.
\nThank you so much for your time and your insights, Simon. Great spending some more time with you.
\nSimon:\u00a0 <\/b>Any time, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n

Michael Yardney<\/a><\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Last week in my discussion with Michael Yardney, Michael was helping us make sense of the 2016 market \u2013 how you read it. Last week, Michael, you were kind enough to give us your top-down approach moving from macro to micro. That\u2019s actually choosing the market, and we promised that this week, we\u2019d come back and you\u2019d help us choose the right property or work at how we can choose it. What is your approach there, Michael?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 The reason behind this strategic approach is because not all properties make investment sense. In fact, the sort of property that I like is one that is appealing to owner-occupiers, which isn\u2019t the way most people look at investments.
\nYou see, I like the sort of property that owner-occupiers are going to buy, not that I plan to sell my property but because owner occupiers are going to buy properties similar to mine, pushing up local real estate values. This is going to be particularly important in 2016 when I see the percentage of investors likely to diminish. The first strand of my approach is a property that appeals to owner-occupiers.
\nThe second one is I like to buy properties below their intrinsic value. That\u2019s why I avoid buying new or off-the-plan properties that tend to come with a premium price. I\u2019m looking for a property where the land value plus the replacement value is actually probably less than what I\u2019m paying for it. Even in the top-heavy markets of Sydney and Melbourne, you can find those properties.
\nI then dig down further and I choose an area that has not only just had a long history of capital growth in the past but more importantly, one that is likely to continue to outperform the averages because of the demographics there.
\nI believe demographics are going to be the big driver of our property market, so I look for areas where there are more owner-occupiers and where owner-occupiers want to live because of lifestyle choices. Also, areas where locals are prepared to, but mostly can afford to, pay a premium because they\u2019ve got higher disposable incomes. In general, these are the more affluent inner and middle ring suburbs of our capital cities.
\nThe fourth strand to my five-stranded approach is I look for a property with a twist \u2013 something unique, something special, something different, something scarce about the property. That\u2019s why I don\u2019t go for those big monolith buildings where all the apartments are the same.
\nFinally, Kevin, I only like buying properties to which I can add value through renovations, through refurbishments, through redevelopments. I want to manufacture some capital growth rather than waiting for the market to deliver me capital growth.
\nBy doing this, I minimize my risks and I maximize my upside, because each strand of my approach makes me money from property. Combining all five of them puts me ahead of the odds because to be honest, they\u2019re not always all going to work, but it\u2019s stood a good test of time over the years to help me grow my wealth and those of our clients.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 It would require a huge amount of discipline, too, to stick to that because I imagine you\u2019d be actually knocking back a lot of properties because of that.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 I used to say 5% of properties \u2013 only 5% \u2013 are investment grade, and I was wrong. In the last year or two, I\u2019d say it\u2019s probably more like 1% are what I call investment grade. I think this year, we\u2019re going to have to be even more selective.
\nIt involves a lot of time, a lot of research, a lot of due diligence. But I do that for us, personally, for Pam and myself, and we do it for our clients. I actually piggyback on all of the research Metropole does for other people and I use it to my benefit, too, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Of those five, are there any of those that are negotiable?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 I think when you buy a property, there are three things. There is your budget, and the budget really is usually determined by other factors \u2013 by the bank, by the lenders. Then there is location, and that one is not negotiable. You have to choose the right location.
\nThen there is the sort of property that you end up buying. I\u2019d rather choose the right location and have an apartment than house and land in an area that isn\u2019t going to have the best location. I think location is the big one that you can\u2019t change. The others change with time.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 That\u2019s wonderful, Michael. Thank you so much for sharing that with us. That\u2019s Michael Yardney\u2019s five-stranded approach. I appreciate your time, Michael. Thank you so much. Michael, of course, from Metropole Property Strategists, and you can always follow Michael on his blog, of course, Property Update.
\nMichael, thanks for your time.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 My pleasure, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n

Patrick Bright<\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Another one of our experts joining us to give us his impression of what the 2016 market is going to look like is Patrick Bright, who is a buyer\u2019s agent from EPS Property Search and Property Management. They are Sydney\u2019s number one buyer\u2019s agency.
\nCongratulations, Patrick.
\nPatrick<\/b>:\u00a0 Thanks, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Let\u2019s have a look at what your thoughts are for 2016. But before we do, let\u2019s have a look back at 2015. Any surprises in there for you?
\nPatrick<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. I think I was a bit surprised at the level of growth that we\u2019ve had in Sydney for 2015 off the back of such a strong 2013 and 2014. Yes, I was a little surprised at the strength of the market that we ended up having.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Were you able to ride that wave?
\nPatrick<\/b>:\u00a0 Absolutely. I\u2019ve been very happy, and our clients have been very happy. It\u2019s been a good three years.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 They were happy surprises, weren\u2019t they? Obviously, you got it right in Sydney. Were there any markets apart from Sydney that stand out for you, either as a disappointment or as a pleasant surprise?
\nPatrick<\/b>:\u00a0 From a disappointment point of view from 2015, the things that highlight it for me when that comes to mind is the fact that the New South Wales government had a chance to stamp out dummy bidding and underquoting, and all they\u2019ve done is formalize it with their new legislation that\u2019s coming in and just starting this month. The federal government\u2019s enquiry into foreign investment, too, was a bit disappointing. Those are probably the low lights. But otherwise, I thought the market was a good year.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. One does wonder about those rules with regards to bidding and underquoting and so on. There were some good case studies around Australia, particularly in Queensland, where the state government of New South Wales certainly could have gone that way, Patrick?
\nPatrick<\/b>:\u00a0 Exactly. I think what they\u2019ve done is that the rules that have just come into play essentially formalize underquoting. It\u2019s not going to get rid of dummy bidding. They\u2019re tinkering at the edges again.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, back to the markets. What do you think we\u2019re going to be saying this time next year about the 2016 market?
\nPatrick<\/b>:\u00a0 Look, I\u2019m someone who is not as stressed or worried about what the individual intricacies of the market will do year to year. I\u2019m more of a buy-and-hold, long-term investor. If you stick with tried and tested fundamentals, you don\u2019t speculate, you look for properties that you can add value to cost effectively, you buy in land-locked areas, areas where people want to be, where population is growing \u2013 the old supply and demand factor \u2013 if you do that, you\u2019re going to be very happy over the medium and long term.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What advice would you have for anyone who wants to start their portfolio? Basically, what you\u2019ve just said is pretty good advice. Anything you can add to that?
\nPatrick<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. Markets to watch, things to watch out for for 2016 that always worry me: avoid anything that\u2019s written up as a hot spot, especially if it\u2019s in a property investment magazine or a newspaper. Any of these lists like \u201cthe top 100 properties coming up,\u201d avoid that. If you avoid that, you\u2019re actually going to be in front because most of those suburbs that are named underperform the average for those areas.
\nNow, I know that they do this because I check them from time to time and I\u2019ve had conversations with the editors and journalists who write these magazines. They\u2019ve told me that when they\u2019ve gone to revisit the lists from a few years ago, it\u2019s too embarrassing to publish the findings.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 It\u2019s unfortunate, Patrick, because that is, in fact, what a lot of people think they need to chase, and that is the next hot spot. It\u2019s almost like \u201cI just want the quick fix.\u201d
\nPatrick<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, that\u2019s what people do. They know that they want the sugar hit. They want the above-average return. Unfortunately, they\u2019re not going to get it doing that. They\u2019re taking a speculative risk.
\nYou\u2019re better off buying and holding, sticking to investment fundamentals because we know that chasing these hot spots, they might be a hot spot now\u2026 The mining town is a great example. For about three or four years, they\u2019re written up as the best spot to be. All these so-called experts are saying, \u201cBuy here. Buy there.\u201d
\nBut a lot of these areas that were written up as recently as five years ago, two or three years on are actually halved in value, and they have 12%, or 14% vacancy. It\u2019s there. The examples are there, but you\u2019re not seeing them revisited.
\nLearn from history, people. Don\u2019t go and follow these hot spots. If it\u2019s being written up as a hot spot, it\u2019s too late. The smart money has been made. It\u2019s known in the industry that a lot of magazines and newspapers are advertorials and space is bought by big developers and marketing companies with something to sell.
\nYou just have to have that awareness. Don\u2019t trust everything that you see that\u2019s written up. Check it out. Test it.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 That\u2019s a great piece of advice, and we\u2019re going to leave it on that note. Patrick, I want to thank you.
\nI look forward to catching up with you again as the year 2016 progresses, and thanks again for your time, Patrick.
\nPatrick<\/b>:\u00a0 Pleasure as always, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n

Nhan Nguyen<\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 And a further look at the 2015 market, looking into 2016, this year, Nhan Nguyen joins me from Advanced Property Strategies.
\nGood day, Nhan.
\nNhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Hey, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Mate, are your strategies going to be different in 2016 from what they were last year?
\nNhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Look, I think that I\u2019m a conservative developer investor. My strategies won\u2019t necessarily change. I might be a little bit more conservative because the run has been a lot longer than I anticipated, but I think now I\u2019m just looking for something unique. I think exit strategy is going to be very important this year, just like any other year.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Are you looking only at Southeast Queensland, or are you going to be looking all around Australia?
\nNhan<\/b>:\u00a0 My preference is mainly Southeast Queensland. However, I do have properties in North Queensland. Pretty much, I\u2019ll be focusing in Southeast Queensland, yes.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Many of the people we\u2019ve been talking to over the last few weeks are saying there are some glimmers of hope about the Brisbane market, that it\u2019s likely to be one of the improvers of 2016. Do you agree with that?
\nNhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Look, I think it will be quite steady. I\u2019ve been quite surprised last year with APRA, what the effects of that were. I know their intentions were to slow down the bigger capital cities from the boom-or-bust cycle that they were concerned about. I\u2019m really surprised that the Brisbane\/Southeast Queensland market has continued to bubble along at the rate that it has.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 One of the questions I\u2019m really enjoying asking all of our experts are the indicators, the signs that you look for that the market may be shifting, changing, and it\u2019s time to invest. Can you give us a bit of a guide as to what you\u2019ll be looking at this year?
\nNhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. Indicators are very, very important. I\u2019m laughing because that\u2019s what we always look for. One of them is clearance rates. I know in December, in New South Wales, clearance rates had dropped considerably from three or six months ago. Victoria has slowed down a little bit. Queensland had dropped a little bit, but relative to the rest of the clearance rates in Queensland, it hasn\u2019t dropped much at all. Clearance rates is definitely a big indicator that I\u2019m always looking for at auctions.
\nThe other indicator I often look at is building approvals. You can find that on the Australian Bureau of Statistics \u2013 seeing how many building approvals are actually going through and builds are actually starting.
\nI can go through a few more indicators if you want.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Please. But just on that building approvals, is there a tipping point? Do you look for where buildings are going to go up, or is it a bit like \u201cBuild it and they will come\u201d?
\nNhan<\/b>:\u00a0 That is part of the theory behind it. I think building approvals also overlaps with what people are demanding. Let\u2019s say, owner occupiers, if they\u2019re wanting to build their own homes, to get out of the ground. It\u2019s just more so looking at the trend. Is the trend going up, or is the trend going down?
\nObviously, if the trend is going up, there\u2019s more demand for buildings. If the trend is going down, there\u2019s less demand. We\u2019re looking at indicators of supply and demand, and more so, oversupply is probably more what I\u2019m leading towards.
\nAnother one is development approvals \u2013 finding out where the concentration of development approvals is. There are actually a lot of units coming out of the ground, you may have heard and you\u2019re probably aware of, especially within one or two kilometers of CBD, that\u2019s where a lot of high rises are often coming out of the ground. When you have, let\u2019s say, 2000 or 4000-square meters, you can put hundreds and hundreds of units on there, and sometimes, the unit market is the first to be oversupplied.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What are some of the other indicators? You said you\u2019d be able to run through a few.
\nNhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Another one is exit strategy, and also sales rates for developments. A lot of valuers out there talk to a lot of developers and are looking at sales rates. If sales rates are going up or sales rates are going down, that\u2019s another source of information that you have to really study intimately.
\nSome developers have really good sales channels, and if those sales channels dry up due to various reasons, whether the market has changed or finance has changed, that\u2019s definitely another indicator.
\nPostcode restrictions. If you look at the GFC, finance really determines the market. If finance is hard to get, then people cannot buy, and therefore, sales are slowed down. There\u2019s a reason for postcode restrictions with certain suburbs and certain towns.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Where would you get that information from, Nhan?
\nNhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Oftentimes, they\u2019re published via finance brokers. You can go through finance brokers. They have various newsletters issued from time to time. That would be my definite suggestion there. Talk to your bank or local banker. They have a list. They can basically tell you which postcodes to steer away from.
\nWhat happens there is the banks reduce the amount of lending possible for a particular project. Instead of lending there to 80% or 90%, they\u2019ll cut it down to, let\u2019s say, 70%, and that will change the dynamics of the lending situation there.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Nhan, what about aspirational buyers \u2013 that is people who have started to buy up so that we see the medians start to creep up, and also an increase in wages? Is that an indicator for you, too?
\nNhan<\/b>:\u00a0 That is an indicator. More so in the background, that\u2019s an indicator. Another indicator that will reflect part of that is what the Reserve Bank thinks about interest rates. I, personally, think that interest rates this year will come down a little bit further just based on all the feedback that has been mentioned out there.
\nI think wages is an indicator; however, it\u2019s more so about people\u2019s sentiment. Sometimes people\u2019s wages are low but if they\u2019re really, really gung ho on property, they\u2019ll go and buy property either way whether they believe they can afford it or not. It\u2019s more so about confidence and sentiment in the market, just like the share market.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Just to sum it up for us, Nhan, what do you think we\u2019ll be saying about the 2016 market at this time next year?
\nNhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Look, I think the 2016 market will be full of surprises. I\u2019ve found that when I did my predictions at the end of 2012, I was completely wrong. I found oftentimes \u2013 I was reading a book recently by a billionaire who founded PayPal \u2013 the predictions are generally reflective of the person doing the prediction. My prediction at the end of 2012 was that the market was going to be flat for another five years, and I was completely wrong. It was just what was happening at that point in time.
\nI think 2016 is going to be a clear year. What I mean by that is in 2015, the APRA came in. It gave the market what we call a soft landing, as opposed to a handbrake with the GFC, and so it will adjust. If the market slows down, it won\u2019t be much. It\u2019ll just be incremental to allow the market to naturally adjust rather than a handbrake fall off the edge of a cliff.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Always great talking to you, Nhan Nguyen from Advanced Property Strategies. All the best for this year, mate, and we look forward to talking to you during 2016. Thanks, mate.
\nNhan<\/b>:\u00a0 Thanks so much.
\n <\/p>\n

Lilly Cawthorn<\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Industrial property or investment in industrial property has largely been the domain of male investors, but I was delighted to see a book called \u201cThe Money Factory: Teaching Women How to Make Money from Industrial Property\u201d written by my next guest, Lilly Cawthorn.
\nLilly, welcome to the show.
\nLilly<\/b>:\u00a0 Thank you so much, Kevin. I\u2019m delighted to be here. Thank you for inviting me.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Congratulations on a great book, too. It largely has been the domain of men, hasn\u2019t it? Why is that, do you think, Lilly?
\nLilly<\/b>:\u00a0 It\u2019s not an area that is discussed even widely amongst men. I think it\u2019s because it\u2019s traditionally been lumped in with commercial real estate. People think of commercial real estate as shops and offices. Therefore, the idea of a factory doesn\u2019t even cross their radar. That\u2019s true for men and women, but you can particularly imagine that it doesn\u2019t appeal to women. It doesn\u2019t sound sexy at all that you invest in factories and warehouses.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 No. Given that\u2019s the case, how did you get started?
\nLilly<\/b>:\u00a0 I arrived in Sydney almost 20 years ago. I traditionally invested in residential real estate. I purchased several houses, what I call ugly houses, and prettied them up because I love interior decorating. That was my thing. I arrived here in Sydney on holiday and met my husband. At that time, he was an industrial real estate sales agent, so I discovered industrial factories and warehouses through him.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Did you buy your first property from him?
\nLilly<\/b>:\u00a0 No. What we did is when we decided to get married, we lumped everything we owned together and we set a goal. Both of us, fortunately, are great believers in setting a goal that you aim for and have an annual board meeting and be sure you\u2019re on track. Our goal was that we would end up owning the industrial real estate that he was working at.
\nThat\u2019s how we got started. My first piece of industrial real estate was actually the building that the agency was running out of. After we got that up and running, then I bought my first factory.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 And you\u2019re still running that agency?
\nLilly<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, we\u2019re celebrating 50 years \u2013 not us, but the business. Bawdens Industrial at Parramatta is celebrating 50 years of continuous business. My husband and another partner bought it in 2006.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Let\u2019s talk about industrial real estate. Lilly, in your book, you say it\u2019s all about the tenant. What do you mean by that?
\nLilly<\/b>:\u00a0 I think the tenant is hugely important because I look at it as like a marriage. You need to be dedicated to look after each other and have a bit of give and take. If each one comes from a selfish point of view, then you get a lot of friction. My husband is big on this, as well, for educating the other people who he has in his portfolio.
\nIf the market is poor, if business is having a tough time, if all of the utility costs are being put up and up and up, like we\u2019ve seen recently with electricity and water, it\u2019s not fair to keep raising the rent just because you feel you deserve an increase every year.
\nI\u2019m lucky enough to have the same tenant in two of my factories that I\u2019ve had for the last 15 years because I understand in the tough times, you have to be gentle, and then when times are better, you can maybe push it a bit harder.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Would it be fair to say that the tenants you can attract to an industrial property are going to be business people so therefore, they\u2019ll probably look after it a little bit better?
\nLilly<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. That\u2019s been my understanding. Across our portfolio of more than 700 buildings that our business manages \u2013 not my own portfolio but other people\u2019s \u2013 we do hear the odd sad story but mostly the tenant is there to make their livelihood. It\u2019s not in their best interest to trash your property. Also, Kevin, the leases are great. They really look after the owner unlike residential leases.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Let\u2019s round this chat out, Lilly, if we may with your tips for anyone who wants to get started in industrial real estate investment. What would be your first tip?
\nLilly<\/b>:\u00a0 The way I did it is I started small. It seemed a lot easier to understand a small strata title factory, about 200 square meters. It\u2019s like a small apartment. Then you you\u2019re usually only dealing with one person or a couple who are the tenants. It\u2019s easy to visualize. You\u2019re not intimidated when you have to speak to them. That\u2019s how I started. It felt safe.
\nThen I just simply kept building more of the same, because eventually I accumulated $1 million worth of property that was bringing me $100,000 a year. After that, you learn and you grow as you move through it. Then I started buying bigger factories and warehouses and then getting involved in property trusts. Like anything in life, start small until you understand it.
\nThe other big, big thing is have a separate bank account for each property and don\u2019t spend the profit until you really know what you\u2019re doing.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. With a lot of people who listen to this show, we\u2019re always talking about putting together a team. A team that you may have for residential property, is that going to be the right team for industrial, or is there a difference?
\nLilly<\/b>:\u00a0 There\u2019s a big difference, and it\u2019s a very good point you\u2019re raising. I consider myself an industrial property investor. I am not an industrial property expert \u2013 and I don\u2019t want to be, because I have a team of five fantastic businesses who really look after me.
\nYou need fantastic finance advisors. You need a really good accountant. You have to have a wonderful industrial real estate agent, not just an agent who thinks he can sell everything. You need people who understand the market, and then you need fabulous asset managers who look after you financial investment for you. We\u2019re very proud in our company that it\u2019s women doing that job, young women, and they do it better than men.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Good on you, Lilly. It\u2019s been great talking to you, Lilly Cawthorn. The book is called \u201cThe Money Factory.\u201d If you\u2019re interested in industrial real estate or even sticking your toe in the water, you want to start by reading this book.
\nLilly, thank you so much for your time. It\u2019s great talking to you, and all the best. We look forward to catching up with you again real soon.
\nLilly<\/b>:\u00a0 Thank you so much, Kevin. I want to tell your listeners that they can get a free Kindle version of my book by going to TheMoneyFactory.com.au and sending me an e-mail.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 There you go. TheMoneyFactory.com.au for a free Kindle copy of that book.
\nWell done, Lilly. Thank you for your time.
\nLilly<\/b>:\u00a0 Thank you so much.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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