{"id":6788,"date":"2016-01-20T01:00:41","date_gmt":"2016-01-19T14:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=6788"},"modified":"2016-01-20T01:00:41","modified_gmt":"2016-01-19T14:00:41","slug":"michael-yardney-australian-property-market-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/michael-yardney-australian-property-market-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Yardney – Australian Property Market 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nOur guest today: Michael Yardney<\/strong><\/a> from Metropole Property Strategists<\/a>.
\n <\/p>\n

Transcript:<\/h4>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 As we continue to have a look at what\u2019s going to happen this year with our markets and also reflecting back on some thoughts about 2015, joining us this time is a regular on our show, Michael Yardney<\/span><\/a><\/span> from Metropole Property Strategists<\/span><\/a>.<\/span>
\nHi, Michael.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Hello, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Happy New Year to you, too.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 All the best to you and your family, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Thank you for that. Interested to see, Michael, that you are predicting 2016 to be a boom year.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, Kevin, but maybe not the boom year some people are expecting. I believe it\u2019s going to be a boom year for scary stuff in the media \u2013 things like house prices aren\u2019t affordable, world economies stalling, interest rates are rising not falling, Australia\u2019s going to go into recession.
\nKevin, we\u2019re going through a seminal year where the markets are changing. The strong markets we had in Sydney and Melbourne in particular are going to drop from fifth gear to maybe third gear, and that\u2019s going to create a lot of negative headlines, and it will scare some investors in the market.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What do you think of the factors affecting housing markets this year?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, I see consumer confidence falling in the first half of the year, particularly in those people interested in property because of a lot of the negativity that\u2019s in the media. There\u2019s going to be continued concerns with China\u2019s economy slowing, the European economy having trouble, the terrorism, and things like that. There\u2019s also going to be some local issues with a weaker economy, unemployment, and APRA tightening the screw on investors.
\nKevin, there are a few of the negatives. But there are heaps of positive things that are going to underpin our property markets, as well.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Let\u2019s have a look at a couple of those, Michael, if we may.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 I think interest rates are going to remain at historic lows throughout this year and very likely to drop at least once if not twice again.
\nWe\u2019re going to still have continued strong population growth to our capital cities. Kevin, the Australian Bureau of Statistics is suggesting our population is growing by one person every one minute and 32 seconds, so there\u2019s already been a couple of new people come here since we\u2019ve been speaking. They\u2019re mainly going to come to our four big capital cities where the jobs are, and in particular in the next year or two, to Sydney and Melbourne where the service industry jobs are.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What about overseas investors, Michael?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Kevin, I think they\u2019re still going to be a strong influence on our property markets because as the Australian dollar remains low, they\u2019re going to keep ploughing money into what they see as a safe political and economic haven.
\nThe other factor is going to be that people are still feeling wealthy from the value of their homes. People in Sydney and Melbourne, their houses have doubled in value in the last five or six years, so they\u2019re still going to \u2013 even though the markets are tapering off \u2013 start upsizing, downsizing, moving home.
\nI see that as the year goes on and our government gets its act into gear, an improving local economy in the second half of this year will increase consumer and business confidence, and all of that is pretty good for property, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. As we\u2019ve come to learn, too, Michael, and was highlighted during 2015, there are so many different markets around Australia. What about some of the other markets like Perth and Darwin?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Kevin, I can see that unfortunately, there are some negative effects in Perth and Darwin. Perth has still got a bit of a way to unravel from its excesses of the previous couple of years from the mining boom, and there are actually very few growth factors in the Darwin market.
\nOn the other hand, some of the other smaller markets \u2013 Tasmania, Adelaide \u2013 they\u2019re probably going to keep bubbling along and maybe at the rate of inflation. I think this is also going to be a reasonably good year for Brisbane.
\nSydney and Melbourne may end up having maybe about 5% capital growth over the year, and Brisbane would probably catch up to that, as well. But, Kevin, lots of markets within those markets \u2013 some segments will underperform, and there will always be those that will do a bit better than others.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Wonderful, mate. Sum it up for me in a couple of paragraphs. What do you think we\u2019ll be saying about 2016 at this time next year?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Those people who could see past the mixed messages and work their way through the fragmented markets are going to find good investments that will see them through. There will be less competition for them, but I\u2019d be very, very selective with property purchases.
\nAs always, my strategy has been to buy properties to which you can add value, so even if the market isn\u2019t going to work out for you, you can do the heavy lifting through some renovations or development.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Great talking to you, mate. Happy New Year once again. Look forward to working with you during 2016. Thanks, Michael.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 It should be an interesting year. Kevin, thank you.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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