{"id":6641,"date":"2015-12-11T12:00:43","date_gmt":"2015-12-11T01:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=6641"},"modified":"2015-12-11T12:00:43","modified_gmt":"2015-12-11T01:00:43","slug":"would-you-live-in-a-house-smaller-than-a-master-bedroom-2016-hotspots-australian-houses-of-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/would-you-live-in-a-house-smaller-than-a-master-bedroom-2016-hotspots-australian-houses-of-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Would you live in a house smaller than a master bedroom? | 2016 Hotspots | Australian houses of the future"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nIn putting the show together for this week, I asked\u00a0Michael Yardney<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0if he could detail what he thinks are going to be the property \u201chotspots\u201d in 2016.\u00a0Those who work with Michael, will know his response to that question.\u00a0Not quite what I expected and you might be surprised as well.
\nCate Bakos<\/strong>\u00a0gives us her 4 essentials for investment selection and why we ask the wrong questions and Damian Collins<\/strong> looks at what\u2019s ahead for Perth property.
\nThe recent wave in the Sydney market is one that every investor would love to have known about before it happened but that isn\u2019t the only place in Australia where gains are happening.\u00a0Tony Coughran<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>points out the areas on Queensland\u2019s Gold Coast he thinks will boom next.
\nThe tiny house movement originated in the United States in the late 1990s.\u00a0Typically these small homes aren\u2019t larger than 46 square meters with some as small as 11 and half square meters. That is smaller than most master bedrooms. The movement has since spread to New Zealand, Canada and Australia and today we talk to someone who has built one and is getting so many demands to build more she is starting a business building them.
\nFurther to that, I talk to KPMG Demographer and social commentator\u00a0Bernard Salt<\/strong>\u00a0about this tiny house movement and the future of Australian housing.
\n <\/p>\n

Transcripts:<\/h4>\n

Damian Collins<\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 As we look around Australia, it\u2019s just so interesting to watch all the different markets, and we\u2019ve seen a bit of a topsy-turvy market in Western Australia, specifically Perth, in recent times. Let\u2019s head that way now and get a bit of an insight as to what\u2019s happening in that Perth market. If you\u2019re an investor there, you\u2019re going to be hanging off the words of Damian Collins from Momentum Wealth in WA.
\nDamian, thank you for your time.
\nDamian<\/b>:\u00a0 Pleasure, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Would it be too rude to say that Perth is a bit of a cot case?
\nDamian<\/b>:\u00a0 I think that\u2019s on the harsher side, Kevin. Look, it\u2019s definitely a market that\u2019s had a pretty average year. You\u2019ve found that the rental vacancies have gone up and prices have come back. Depending on the properties in the areas, some areas have actually flat-lined and even marginally gone up, but a lot of areas have come back 5%, and you get some of the more extreme areas that have come back between that 5% and 10%.
\nIt\u2019s certainly been an impact of two things. Obviously, the mining downturn has meant fewer people coming into Perth. We haven\u2019t seen a huge amount of people leaving. There have been some, but by and large, it\u2019s just been less of an influx.
\nWhat\u2019s caused the biggest issue for the over-supply is the government threw a lot of money at first-home buyers and we had record building over the last 12 to 18 months and that\u2019s what\u2019s caused, I guess, a lot of extra supply in the market and also caused the rental vacancy rates to rise with first-home buyers taking advantage of all the free money from the government and going and building new homes.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 I was in Perth not too long ago, and I noticed a lot of work happening down on the foreshore there. There was a fairly big development. I just can\u2019t recall the name of it, but I understood that there are a lot of units being built in there, as well, Damian.
\nDamian<\/b>:\u00a0 That might have been Elizabeth Quay, Kevin, right on the water in the city.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 That\u2019s the one.
\nDamian<\/b>:\u00a0 There are a lot of units planned for there. There\u2019s a hotel. Also Chevron is going to build an office down there, albeit that\u2019s been put back for a couple of years.
\nWhat you\u2019ll find with a lot of the inner city apartment supply is that because the market\u2019s a bit softer, it\u2019s not all going to get off the ground. It\u2019s all very well to advertise and promote it, but if you don\u2019t get the pre-sales, the banks generally won\u2019t fund that project.
\nThere is a bit of development happening, and Perth certainly is a good 15 to 20 years behind Sydney and Melbourne in terms of apartment and inner-city living. It\u2019s all still relatively new. I think we\u2019ll never be as dense as Sydney and even Melbourne, but I certainly think longer term there is some good potential. We will see certainly more people in WA drifting towards living in apartments.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Of course, WA is more than just the Perth market \u2013 quite an interesting market how it actually follows and hugs the coast there too. Looking up and down the coast, are there any areas that you think hold great potential as we move into 2016?
\nDamian<\/b>:\u00a0 Overall, the WA market in 2016 is going to be very similar to what we\u2019re seeing in 2015, in that prices in the market could marginally rise next year, it could marginally decline. Really, no one can know with exact certainty. The rental vacancy rate, I think, is peaking. It\u2019s about 5.5%. We might see it hit 6%, but I don\u2019t see it going much more than that because we\u2019re certainly seeing at our end \u2013 we manage a substantial rental portfolio \u2013 that the tenants aren\u2019t running and going into home ownership anymore. They\u2019re happy to stay.
\nI\u2019d expect it to be much of the same as 2015, and none of the regional areas are likely to particularly outperform at all, Kevin. I think we have a still a declining market in the Pilbara, and I feel sympathetic for people who bought up there at $1.2 million, $1.3 million but they still have many years of pain up in that region, just a lot of over-supply.
\nAll in all, if you\u2019re trying to make short-term profits in WA, 2016 is not the year. It\u2019s really about if you\u2019re looking for getting a great long-term investment at a really good price, that\u2019s what 2016 is about. You may not make a huge amount of money in 2016 because you\u2019re not going to grow property.
\nI\u2019m still confident that, longer term, WA property, particularly Perth, is going to do quite well, but you have to get used to the Perth market. It\u2019s more volatile than the east coast. But having said that, the fundamentals are still great for the long term.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 We\u2019re going to give you a break for a few weeks, Damian. We\u2019ll come back in about four weeks\u2019 time, early in the New Year. The 16th<\/sup> of January, we\u2019re back and I might just get your impressions then on the Australian market, and we\u2019ll try to delve a little bit deeper into the Perth and WA markets, as well.
\nDamian Collins from Momentum Wealth, thank you so much for your time, mate.
\nDamian<\/b>:\u00a0 Thanks, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n

Lara Nobel<\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 I wonder if you\u2019ve seen a show on Foxtel about tiny houses. It\u2019s called \u201cTiny House Hunting,\u201d and it\u2019s all about people who are looking for their perfect tiny home. Now, these homes aren\u2019t just small; they take tiny to a whole new level. Typically, they\u2019re small homes. They\u2019re no larger than about 46 square meters, and some transportable tiny homes are as small as 11.5 square meters \u2013 and that\u2019s smaller than most master bedrooms.
\nI conducted an interview on our consumer show on Real Estate Talk on radio recently and spoke to Lara Nobel, who joins me now. Lara and her partner have gotten together. They were architects, and they\u2019ve taken up a whole new trade, which we\u2019ll talk about in just a moment, just so they can build their tiny house.
\nHi, Lara. Thanks for your time.
\nLara<\/b>:\u00a0 Hi, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 That was a big move. You\u2019ve moved from being an architect; you\u2019re now almost a qualified carpenter. You\u2019re doing an apprenticeship, are you?
\nLara<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, that\u2019s correct. I was a graduate architect, so I\u2019d done all the study, and now I\u2019m almost a qualified carpenter.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What sparked the interest in tiny houses? What\u2019s the attraction for you?
\nLara<\/b>:\u00a0 There are lots of factors that attracted us \u2013 and also, Greg, who is part of the project \u2013 to the tiny house movement. We even went over to Portland in America to the Tiny House Conference earlier this year.
\nSome of the factors are to do with affordability and what kind of a lifestyle you can lead with a massive mortgage, downsizing in terms of how much stuff you need to own, and also sustainability issues about living off the grid. Those are some of the reasons that drew us towards it.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 You and your partner, Andrew, have recently completed the construction of your own tiny home. Tell us a little bit about that one.
\nLara<\/b>:\u00a0 We started designing earlier in the year and teamed up with the crew that I work with, that I\u2019m doing my apprenticeship with, so there were a couple of other guys helping us heaps on the build.
\nThe design is built on a trailer, which is about 7.5 meters by 2.5 meters. It\u2019s less than two car parking spaces, and it has pretty much everything you need \u2013 well, everything we think we need. It has two spaces where you can fit double mattresses, so a loft space and a bed that lowers down from the ceiling. It has a little bathroom, shower, composting toilet, kitchen, laundry, and it also has a deck that packs down.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 You say this has got everything that you need, and no doubt, it does for you and Andrew. I imagine they\u2019re great for couples. What about families? Do you think that a family could actually fit into one of these?
\nLara<\/b>:\u00a0 I guess it depends on the family and their lifestyle to a certain extent. Most likely, a couple and a small child would easily cope very well in the tiny house, especially, in Queensland, because we can spend so much time outdoors and on the deck and in the garden. We\u2019ve got a very good climate for it.
\nRealistically, in such a small space, a larger family would have to make bigger compromises \u2013 not to say, they couldn\u2019t do it. I\u2019ve heard of families traveling around in caravans with three kids, and that\u2019s also cool, so it just depends.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 The tiny house movement itself originated in the States. I know that you have traveled to Japan and Berlin. What are some of the influences that you brought back to put into your property?
\nLara<\/b>:\u00a0 When I was traveling in Japan, one of the focuses of the study trip was on small spaces and micro housing. In Japan, there are a lot of smaller spaces, and they have different techniques that they use in order to organize those spaces \u2013 whether it is tatami mats or rolling beds out at night and packing them away during the day. I learned a few strategies from that.
\nAlso, we got to visit a couple of architecturally designed small houses that were very tall. I learned a bit of strategy about stacking spaces and multi-use of the one space \u2013 so a bedroom that\u2019s also a living room that\u2019s also a dining room. There was a lot of influences from that, and also, of course, a bit of Japanese joinery and my love of timber.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 I understand you\u2019re taking this to a whole new level starting your own company to build these \u2013 the Tiny House Company. How\u2019s that going?
\nLara<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, we have a lot of interest. It\u2019s amazing. A lot of people are excited about the idea. We haven\u2019t got a facility yet where we can build, but that\u2019s going to happen early next year. We have some very interested customers, and we\u2019re embarking on that most likely early in the new year.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What prices will they come in at? Is there a price point at all, Lara?
\nLara<\/b>:\u00a0 It depends. We\u2019re looking at a range of prices. There has been a lot of people interested in the DIY side of it. They\u2019re interested in building their own, but they don\u2019t really know where to get started, and they\u2019d like the help from qualified carpenters and trailer makers to get them off the ground, so to speak \u2013 so kind of a shell, which they can fit out themselves.
\nThen we\u2019re looking at anything between\u2026 The trailer that we built ours on was over $10,000. I think some people in Australia see some of the stuff online from America, and it\u2019s people claiming that they\u2019ve built a tiny house for under $20,000. Realistically, they\u2019re a lot well over what we\u2019re making, more like around the $100,000 mark, depending on what you want.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 I understand. Have you got a website for the business yet? Is that operational?
\nLara<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, we do. It\u2019s http:\/\/www.TinyHouseCompany.com.au<\/a>.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 That\u2019s pretty easy to find \u2013 TinyHouseCompany.com.au.
\nMy guest has been Lara Nobel. Lara, thank you. All the best for the future, and stay tiny.
\nLara<\/b>:\u00a0 Thank you, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n

Michael Yardney<\/a><\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Always around this time of year, many people want to know what\u2019s going to happen next year. As we head into 2016, a good topic \u2013 and it\u2019s a topic we\u2019re asked to address \u2013 is about hot spots. We\u2019ve got a particular feeling about that. Michael Yardney<\/span><\/a><\/span> from Metropole Property Strategists<\/span><\/a> <\/span>joins me.
\nHi, Michael.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Hello, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Do they exist, firstly?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, Kevin, every year people try and find the hot spots for the next year. You\u2019re right. Around this time of the year, you\u2019ll see lots of articles about that.
\nI found it interesting looking back at some of the previous ones online and in the magazines, and those areas that were so-called hot spots have actually performed pretty poorly over the last little while. Many of the outer suburbs, the regional suburbs, the mining towns, which were flavor of the month for a short time, were not hot spots at all.
\nMaybe we should look at what is<\/i> likely to drive our property markets over the next year.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Interesting. I was talking to Dr. Andrew Wilson from Domain about this just recently, and his comment was that by the time it\u2019s identified as a hot spot, it\u2019s already finished. It\u2019s over. It\u2019s gone.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, it\u2019s all so short-lived. What I think investors should be looking at is more long term. Yes, I know the concept that it would be nice to time the market, but I\u2019ve found it\u2019s harder and harder to do at the moment. There are too many factors.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What are those property markets going to look like, and what\u2019s going to drive them next year?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 I think the drivers next year are going to be Australia\u2019s economy. That\u2019s slowing, and how that pans out and how the Reserve Bank is going to respond with interest rates will clearly be a major impact on our property markets.
\nAnother big factor over the next 12 months is APRA\u2019s regulation targeting investors and now even more recently owner-occupiers. This is going to slow demand down. Particularly for investors who are marginal and having difficulty getting loans, or investors with very large property portfolios who are rent-reliant, they\u2019re going to have more difficulty getting finance, and I think that\u2019s going to slow the market down a bit next year.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Population?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Population growth was one of the big drivers. You\u2019re right, Kevin. But that\u2019s slowing a little bit, and where it\u2019s going to is mainly going to be the two big capital cities, Melbourne and Sydney, where growth in service industries is creating the biggest jobs.
\nInterest rates are going to be an interesting factor. I think they\u2019re going to remain low. If you put me in a corner and said, \u201cWhat\u2019s going to happen?\u201d I\u2019d say, \u201cThey\u2019re probably going to drop once or twice more over the next year because our economy is faltering a bit.\u201d
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 It\u2019s one thing to have lower interest rates by the RBA, but it\u2019s just a matter of whether the banks pass it on, Michael.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Exactly right. I think we\u2019re going to get a two-tier system where businesses are going to be getting the lower interest rates but the banks and home-owners are not as much. But that\u2019s interestingly leading to business confidence. They\u2019re feeling more confident now that we seem to have a stable federal government and stable state governments, and business confidence translates to more investment, to more jobs.
\nThat\u2019s also creating consumer confidence. Consumer confidence is the highest since Malcolm Turnbull was elected. In fact, it\u2019s the highest it\u2019s been in two years recently, so consumers are happy because they\u2019re getting more jobs because unemployment is under control.
\nI think the combination of these factors means 2016 won\u2019t be as good for house price growth as 2015 was, but we\u2019re not going into reverse. We\u2019re not going backwards. The strong Melbourne and Sydney markets have probably dropped from fifth gear to third or fourth gear, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Interesting. So steady as she goes, 2016, Michael?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Probably a little bit slower than it went last year. It also means that you\u2019re going to have to be very careful with property selection, because capital growth isn\u2019t going to cover up mistakes.
\nI think, as always, it\u2019s really going to be demographics \u2013 how we live, where we want to live. The sort of people who have got a bit more\u00a0 income are the ones that are going to push up property values, because I see as our economy is bumbling along, there\u2019s going to be very little wages growth in many of the manufacturing and blue-collar areas. I think the high end of the market is probably also going to suffer a little bit, Kevin, because you don\u2019t need those big trophy homes in Sydney, and Melbourne, and Brisbane when the economy is faltering a bit.
\nBut there are lots of people who are still getting married, getting divorced, having babies \u2013 maybe not in that order, Kevin \u2013 and what\u2019s going to end up happening is they\u2019ve still got to live somewhere. They\u2019re still going to move. They still have jobs, and they\u2019re still buying or renting properties, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Always good talking to you, Michael Yardney <\/span><\/a><\/span>from Metropole Property Strategists<\/span><\/a>.<\/span> Michael, thank you for your time.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 My pleasure, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Don\u2019t forget you can get a copy of Michael\u2019s new book, too. There\u2019s a link on our homepage at RealEstateTalk.com.au.
\nMichael, we\u2019ll talk to you again next week. Thank you.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 My pleasure, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n

Tony Coughran<\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Every investor I\u2019ve ever spoken to always wants to get ahead of the curve, to get on the wave, to work out where that wave is going to be. The recent wave that we saw in Sydney, well, that\u2019s one that every investor would love to have been on and known about well before it happened.
\nBut Sydney is not the only place in Australia where we get those big peaks. Take the Gold Coast as an example. In the latest Australian Property Investor<\/i> magazine, Tony Coughran from Gold Coast Property Advisors points out the areas on the Gold Coast he thinks are going to boom next. He joins us.
\nHi, Tony. Thanks for your time.
\nTony<\/b>:\u00a0 No problems. You\u2019re always welcome. Thank you.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Tony, what are the areas that you\u2019re watching most on the Gold Coast right now?
\nTony<\/b>:\u00a0 We\u2019re taking particular interest in the lifestyle suburbs of Burleigh Heads, Nobby Beach \u2013 that\u2019s located at Mermaid Beach \u2013 Paradise Point (a Broadwater suburb), and Chirn Park in Labrador.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What specifically do you like about those areas?
\nTony<\/b>:\u00a0 Absolutely love the huge shift in demographics. They were once tightly held areas, and now things are changing for the baby boomers, and it\u2019s giving great opportunities for the next generation.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Those areas that you talk about, are they areas where you could actually go in and enhance the value of the property by making some changes, some renovations to it?
\nTony<\/b>:\u00a0 Absolutely. A lot of those homes were built in the 1960s and 1970s, so there\u2019s actually a huge amount of construction work happening in these areas right now, whether they be knock-downs, full renovations, or just a comfortable budget renovation.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What gains are you expecting in those areas, Tony?
\nTony<\/b>:\u00a0 Let\u2019s take a look back to late 2012 where the market had lost a lot of traction at the Gold Coast. Right now, the market has gained great momentum and is performing very well. For example, in Burleigh, on average, we\u2019ve seen almost 15% growth in median prices, as opposed to 5% across the coast. If you buy right and you\u2019re well informed, you could get another 10% or 15% capital growth over the next 12 to 24 months.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Some of those suburbs you mentioned there are fairly well established \u2013 Mermaid Beach as an example. Do you think those suburbs are going to achieve better than what we\u2019ve seen in Queensland in recent times, averaging each year around about 6%? Do you think we can get better than that?
\nTony<\/b>:\u00a0 It certainly does come down to knowing the values and being well informed. If you\u2019re buying well, then you can curve greater growth than the average punter.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What would you be looking for in those areas, what type of properties?
\nTony<\/b>:\u00a0 I\u2019d be looking for properties that you could knock down and rebuild, build that lifestyle home and see some significant growth, or I\u2019d be looking at buying and holding for a couple of years, waiting for the market to pendulum even further in your favor, and then doing your renovations and prosper.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 How\u2019s the Gold Coast faring overall?
\nTony<\/b>:\u00a0 Due to our demand here in the Gold Coast, stock has certainly tightened up over the last 12 months. We do have a lot of frustrated buyers that are lining up to secure properties. We\u2019re big advocates for houses and duplexes that don\u2019t have those body corporate fees. They\u2019re the best capital growth generators.
\nWe do hope to see a shift in the New Year of 2016, seeing more vendors looking at putting their properties on the market.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What about the forthcoming Commonwealth Games? Are you hearing much in the market about that? Is that having any impact at this point in time?
\nTony<\/b>:\u00a0 Most definitely. We\u2019re seeing big dollars being spent on the coast \u2013 city infrastructure, new sporting facilities, the upgrades to major retail centers. New high rises are popping up all over town. The new light rail is in operation. Good news, we have the green light for the second extension, which connects to the heavy rail.
\nLook, the economy is alive and well. There are more jobs, more people coming to the coast and creating a greater demand here on the coast.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, good news there out of the Gold Coast. I\u2019ve been talking to Tony Coughran from Gold Coast Property Advisors.
\nTony, thanks for your time.
\nTony<\/b>:\u00a0 No worries. Thank you, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n

Bernard Salt<\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Earlier in the show, I was talking to Lara Nobel about the tiny house movement, which has recently taken off in Australia, and the move toward smaller and more affordable eco-friendly homes.
\nNow, if there\u2019s anyone who knows a thing or two about modern houses compared to the typical weatherboard, three-bedroom, one-bathroom home of the 1960s and 1970s, it\u2019s KPMG\u2019s demographer and social commentator, Bernard Salt, who joins me.
\nBernard, thanks again for your time.
\nBernard<\/b>:\u00a0 Hi, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Hi. Bernard, is the tiny house movement indicative of a change in attitude to housing and accommodation in Australia?
\nBernard<\/b>:\u00a0 There is no doubt that there has been a shift in attitudes towards housing. I\u2019m not convinced that this is a mainstream movement. I think the mainstream is still focused on bigger houses. In fact, the four-bedroom, two-bathroom product is still popular with the mansion set on the edge of town.
\nBut there is sizable community that is now concerned about sustainability issues and that also wants access to the city\u2019s center at an affordable price, and the only way you can do that is by having a smaller apartment or, in fact, a smaller house, so yes, this is important. It does touch base with a rising segment of the community, but I don\u2019t think it means that all of Australia is going to forsake the quarter-acre block and cram into tiny houses. I think we\u2019re a long way from that as yet.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What does a typical Australian home look like? Is there a typical Australian home?
\nBernard<\/b>:\u00a0 In fact, I don\u2019t think there\u2019s an average anything in Australia. Because we are such a vast continent and 24 million people, we have a whole range of averages, a whole range of tribes and behaviors that make up the Australian population.
\nIn fact, there is the lifestyle thing. Certainly, Queensland do particularly well with the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and so forth. There is middle suburbia, the three-bedroom quarter-acre block product that was developed in the 1950s and 1960s. Then, of course, you have the mansion product, which we talked about before. These are very large houses on the edge of town in sort of tree-change <\/b>locations, in fact.
\nThen you have the apartment product, which has really had an impact on Brisbane over the last ten years. You can see that around Woolloongabba and West End in particular, where you have that inner-city hipster as well as many corporates and others who simply want to live that Manhattan lifestyle close to all facilities downtown.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 You mentioned Brisbane there. Are there other places around Australia where that\u2019s also the case?
\nBernard<\/b>:\u00a0 There\u2019s no doubt that Brisbane is very much in line with trends that are happening in Melbourne and Sydney. As a Melbournian, I can certainly cite the instances of Manhattan high-rise apartments in St. Kilda Road, Southbank, and Docklands, of course, and then dotted around Sydney, as well.
\nThese trends, I think, really kicked off from the middle of the 1990s in Sydney first, then to Melbourne and then to Brisbane. Brisbane took a while to jump on board, but it\u2019s fully on board now, and anyone looking at the skyline of Brisbane would know that the Manhattan-ification of Brisbane is underway.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What\u2019s the prevalence of multiple generations sharing the one home?
\nBernard<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, in fact, multiple generations sharing the one home is not really a trend that you see in traditional Anglo Australian-born households. These are certainly popular; multiple generations in the one home are very popular amongst some migrant communities. In fact, Chinese, even Indian communities, particularly see this as a continuation of traditional ways of living, I suppose.
\nThere was also some evidence of this in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s with the Italians and the Greeks. However, based on the evidence of how the Italians and Greeks have evolved, I think that the multi-generational households that apply to some migrant groups, by the second generation, we tend to Aus-ify them and they adopt Australian values where each generation pretty much gets its own household.
\nWe like our family, but we like our family at a distance is what I would say in comparison to many other communities around the world.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 But is home ownership still an Australian dream? In your view, is it achievable by young Australians?
\nBernard<\/b>:\u00a0 Certainly, home ownership is still achievable in Australia. It may not be achievable in the city or, in fact, in the suburb that you want it to be achievable. I think this is often an issue with Generation Y and particularly, in the major capital cities, be it Sydney, Melbourne or, in fact, Brisbane.
\nIt may mean that you have to go to a provincial city or, in fact, to a location further out from the city\u2019s center. Of course, many Generation Y\u2019s don\u2019t want that. They want to remain around the hipster edge of the inner city and look for an apartment or a house in that area. Of course, that\u2019s the most highly prized and therefore, the most highly valued real estate in any capital city.
\nBut I do think you can. You just have to be prepared to relocate, in fact, perhaps even to a different city in order to get into the home ownership market.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Are there other things that are affecting housing affordability these days?
\nBernard<\/b>:\u00a0 In fact, you would have to argue that interest rates are extraordinarily low at the moment, so that should be having a positive impact. But strong levels of population growth, competition, of course, for housing from the international market \u2013 I\u2019m thinking particularly China \u2013 and also a preference these days by Australians for access to the city\u2019s center and infrastructure, the likes of which you would get within a 10K radius of the city\u2019s center.
\nPlus, I would add also to this the shift towards knowledge work \u2013 any job that requires a university education, for example. Many of those jobs are not in, say, car-assembly plants out on the edge of town; they are in the CBD or in the suburbs. That means that apartment product or housing product within striking distance of the CBD or inner suburbs are really going to be most highly prized and therefore, have values increase the most.
\nYes, there is a competition factor that is pushing up property values in some parts of our capital cities.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. Any predictions from you as to what the future of housing will look like?
\nBernard<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, the question I often get is around bubbles. Surely, everything is going to collapse. I\u2019m a positivist when it comes to Australia, firstly, and also to the Australian housing market.
\nYes, there have been times in history where property values have decreased \u2013 but not plummeted. In fact, they tend to maybe soften somewhat, or move sideways, or freeze for a couple of years, but for a young, vital, vibrant country importing 250,000-odd people per year and growing the country as well, there is still quite some demand for households and for housing in Australia that would take up the slack in any market at the moment.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 I\u2019ve been talking to KPMG demographer and social commentator, Bernard Salt. More about Bernard, if you\u2019d like, at his website, BernardSalt.com.au.
\nBernard, thank you so much for your time.
\nBernard<\/b>:\u00a0 My pleasure.
\n <\/p>\n

Cate Bakos<\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 My guest this time is Cate Bakos. Cate is a buyer\u2019s agent from Melbourne. Cate left a career in chemistry to go into the property industry back in 2003 and in 2013, was a finalist in the Telstra Business Woman of the Year Award and a finalist in the REIV Buyer\u2019s Agent of the Year Award.
\nHi, Cate. Always good talking to you. How are you?
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 I\u2019m well. Thanks, Kevin. Thanks for that lovely intro.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 And you were a chemist, were you?
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 I was \u2013 an industrial chemist.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Okay, well, what a change to property. It just seems like a natural fit. I love the way you think, Cate, and I particularly want to talk to you about a topic I heard you talk about, which was the essential elements for successful investment selection. We\u2019re asked all the time \u2013 aren\u2019t we \u2013 \u201cWhat should I buy, what can I buy if I had $500,000, and what are the next hot spots?\u201d Are they the key questions? Are they the essentials, Cate?
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 They\u2019re the common questions, but they\u2019re not the right<\/i> questions.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Okay, well tell us. What are the elements you look for?
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 Right. Well, I think, for me, there are four essential elements, and if you can get all four, you\u2019re on a really successful journey. It is simple, but it\u2019s not easy getting all four, but once you understand them and you search for them before you put pen to paper and sign a contract, you better insulate yourself for a good journey.
\nThe first one is the obvious one. It\u2019s the element that everyone wants to achieve. It\u2019s capital growth. We always aim for outperformance capital growth, but capital growth isn\u2019t the only facet that we should focus on. The most important one that we really should pay attention to is actually the rental yield equating to the yield that the investor needs.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Just on that point, is there an ideal number?
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, the ideal number is the amount of surplus income that that investor is happy to put towards the property in terms of outgoing out-of-pocket expenses. We can take into account tax deductibility and other benefits, but I try to run the raw numbers, and I look at purely what the outgoings are and what the anticipated incoming rent is. If that differential is a higher figure than that investor can comfortably cover, then they\u2019re biting off more than they can chew, and this is probably the facet out of all four elements that can bring a good investment strategy undone.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Okay, so that\u2019s two. What\u2019s number three?
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 Number three is going for a property that is most likely going to have ongoing tight vacancy rates. If you\u2019re going to an area that has plenty of vacant properties sliding around it, then you are destined to have a bit of hardship when it comes time to finding a tenant. Obviously, having weeks of no rent ticking by unravels the profit that you can make in that property.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Okay, and the fourth one?
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 The last one is quality of tenant. You have to look at the target tenant you\u2019re likely to attract in the property that you\u2019re choosing, understand exactly what those kinds of tenants are looking for and what they value, and make sure that the type of tenant you\u2019re likely to get is one who fits comfortably with your profile.
\nIf you\u2019re going for a more eclectic blend of tenants or tenants who are likely to have financial hardship or students, you need to be prepared to deal with all that goes with that type of tenant.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 The four are capital growth, rental yield, a tight vacancy rate, and tenant quality. Now, you said at the outset, \u201cIf you can get four, that\u2019s fantastic; if you can get three, that\u2019s great.\u201d Would two be sufficient to get you across the line, or is that a bit suspect?
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 It will make it a really bumpy journey. Particularly, if that rental yield element is not fitting well, that will mean that the property will cost the investor more than they\u2019re prepared to spend on it, and ultimately, they\u2019ll want to fire sale it and they\u2019ll feel that they had a property that didn\u2019t perform well or they\u2019ll feel really negative about the whole experience.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Tough question now without notice, Cate, but if any of those were not negotiable, which one would it be?
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 The second one. I always say to everyone, calculate what sort of yield you need first and then with everything else that remains on the table, pick the strongest capital growth performer. But if you do it the other way around, you might find that you\u2019re taking on a property that you can\u2019t afford in the long term to hold.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 The second one you said was rental yield?
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 That\u2019s right.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, so rental yield is not negotiable. Would capital growth, therefore, be the second most important?
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, I think capital growth is because if you can weather the storm with vacancy rates or you can handle getting bad tenants or challenging tenants, then your property will still perform.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Makes sense. Those last two \u2013 that is, tight vacancy rate and tenant quality \u2013 probably go a bit hand-in-hand really, don\u2019t they?
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 Not necessarily. You can go into some areas that have very, very tight vacancy rates and the quality of tenant is not one that would suit every investor out there.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Very good point. Always makes sense, Cate. Thank you so much for your time. Cate Bakos, a buyer\u2019s agent, Cate Bakos Property in Melbourne.
\nThanks for your time, Cate.
\nCate<\/b>:\u00a0 Lovely to chat, Kevin.
\n 
\n 
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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