{"id":6101,"date":"2015-10-16T12:00:51","date_gmt":"2015-10-16T01:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=6101"},"modified":"2015-10-16T12:00:51","modified_gmt":"2015-10-16T01:00:51","slug":"what-will-drive-our-economy-now-easier-ways-to-enter-the-property-market-where-and-why-the-market-appears-to-be-slowing-melbourne-market-today-plus-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/what-will-drive-our-economy-now-easier-ways-to-enter-the-property-market-where-and-why-the-market-appears-to-be-slowing-melbourne-market-today-plus-more\/","title":{"rendered":"What will drive our economy now | Easier ways to enter the property market | Where and why the market appears to be slowing | Melbourne market today | Plus more"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nMichael Yardney<\/strong><\/a> will tell us what\u2019s going to drive our economy now that the mining boom is over.
\nWith property prices continuing to soar across the country, first home buyers and investors are looking for easier ways to enter the property market. Chris Gray<\/strong> looks at how they are doing it.
\nOur population growth is slowing. <\/b>John McGrath<\/strong> joins us to discuss that and also comments on where and why the market appears to be slowing.
\nSimon Pressley<\/strong> from Propertyology has been analysing the latest employment data for locations right across Australia and has found some interesting discoveries that will impact property.
\nProperty management expert Corina Bailey<\/strong> has a shot at the industry.
\nGreville Pabst<\/strong> takes a look at the Melbourne market with reports circulating that there are too many units.
\n <\/p>\n

Transcripts:<\/h4>\n

Simon Pressley<\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 As any seasoned investor is going to tell you, employment trends can be a precursor to property market trends. Propertyology\u2019s Simon Pressley has spent quite a considerable amount of time analyzing the latest employment data for locations right around Australia. He\u2019s come up with some pretty interesting discoveries that we\u2019re going to talk about.
\nHi, Simon. Thanks for your time.
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 Thanks for having me, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Simon, firstly, what did you find out?
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 Looking at employment trends is something we do several times throughout the year, Kevin, because it\u2019s important to see where the jobs are that people might move towards.
\nNationally, Australia is actually performing a lot better than broad unemployment rates would suggest. Obviously, over the last couple of years, unemployment rates have trended up \u2013 not to alarming levels \u2013 but we\u2019ve actually created a lot more jobs. There are 3% more jobs here in Australia today than two years ago.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 I know it\u2019s one of the factors you need to look at when you\u2019re determining where you want to invest. It\u2019s a pretty good one, too. Where does it rank in importance from some of the other factors?
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 I would always say affordability is the number one consideration we look for. But employment and economic development would be a very close second.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Have you noticed any trends in there with employment and things like developments and infrastructure around Australia?
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 There is. Infrastructure, depending on the nature <\/b>of the project, can create a lot of jobs, but it depends. For example, Northern Territory \u2013 Darwin specifically \u2013 has created really good jobs over the last two years, but a big chunk of that was the Equus LNG Project, so it\u2019s a short-term job creation factor. There\u2019s devil in the detail when looking at job data. It\u2019s not just looking for big numbers; it\u2019s looking for the sustainability of it.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 How important is it to differentiate between actual job numbers and unemployment rates?
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 Look. It\u2019s critically important, I think. Generally speaking, what we read in the media about employment is a very broad unemployment rate, and even then, it\u2019s usually \u201cQueensland is this, WA is that.\u201d Well, as a property investor, that\u2019s really useless information to us. We\u2019re not going to invest in the whole state.
\nEven if you have stripped down an unemployment rate, to say, one city \u2013 like Brisbane \u2013 we see more value in what is the trend of that? You can have an unemployment rate that might be above the national average but fast trending down because it\u2019s creating lots of jobs. Looking more at the job creation data rather than the broad unemployment rates is a lot more valuable to us.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What did you find out state by state?
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 State by state, Victoria and New South Wales have performed very strongly, and there\u2019s no coincidence there that Sydney and Melbourne have had really strong property markets. At a state level, New South Wales has 4% more jobs today than two years ago against a national average of 3%. Victoria has 2.9% more jobs. The big surprise in there for some would be Tasmania. Of all the eight states and territories, it\u2019s performed the best. There are 5.5% more jobs in Tasmania today, Kevin, than two years ago.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Why is that? What\u2019s driving that?
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 Part of it, I think, is a change of government about 18 months ago. Tasmania had a 16-year reign \u2013 from memory \u2013 of the same state government, which is a long time for one party to be in office. I think just a fresh face. Tasmania is really benefiting from what we know as the Asian century. Its industry drivers there are perfectly placed to benefit from job creation stuff as it takes advantage of the Asian century.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Of course, a majority of people choose to live in the eastern states in some of the capital cities, and you get down into the regional areas and it\u2019s pretty sparse in some ways. Is that actually changing?
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 Look. I think we can be guilty as human beings for generalizing too much. Some say that capital cities are better than regions, and regions are mean risk in all that stuff. Well, it\u2019s a really general comment. There are risks in some regions, and there are risks in some capital cities. But there is some really exciting employment data in some of the regions.
\nThe best performing region in all of Australia over the last two years has been the Orana region, which is central west New South Wales. The official capital of the Orana region is Dubbo, and there are 32.6% extra jobs in the Orana region today compared to two years ago.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What\u2019s behind that?
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 It\u2019s one of Australia\u2019s best agricultural sectors. We\u2019ve probably all heard that terminology Australia is Asia\u2019s food bowl. Dubbo itself isn\u2019t an agricultural town, but it\u2019s a big city that services a broad agricultural region. That\u2019s one factor behind it. There\u2019s some tourism out there. The Western Plains Zoo is expanding, and there have been a few infrastructure projects in the region, as well.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 You mentioned Sydney and Melbourne as the two highlights out of the report. What about some of the other capital cities? You mentioned Brisbane, but what about Perth? You mentioned Hobart, what about Perth and Darwin?
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. Darwin has created the most jobs of the capital cities, 8.3%, but when we really look closer at that data, that really relates to a big influx of jobs in the first of those last two years, and that was directly related to that big gas project that we spoke about. The devil is in the details in the Darwin data.
\nIn Perth, there\u2019s 2.4% more jobs created over the last two years \u2013 which, at least, is positive data \u2013 but it is below the national average. We should expect that understanding that a big part of Perth\u2019s economy is heavily influenced by iron ore and what\u2019s been happening there.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 You talk about the influences. You look at Canberra, some pretty big influences there, but it\u2019s all based on what\u2019s happening in politics.
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, definitely. About 28.5% \u2013 from memory \u2013 of all jobs in the nation\u2019s capital of Canberra are government jobs one way or another, and obviously, it\u2019s widely known there\u2019s been a lot of shedding of jobs there as governments try to balance budgets. Of all the capital cities in Australia, Canberra is the only one where there has been a decline in jobs \u2013 2.2% fewer jobs today than two years ago, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. It\u2019s a bit of a cot case, the old Canberra. You drive around there and you see a lot of vacant buildings, as well.
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, it\u2019s had a lot of extra housing supply, mainly unit stock there, so it\u2019s a double whammy.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. I\u2019ve been talking to Simon Pressley from Propertyology. The website is Propertyology.com.au, and a great report. That\u2019s available on your website, Simon?
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 It is indeed, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. Good stuff, and great talking to you, mate. Thank you for your time.
\nSimon<\/b>:\u00a0 Thanks, Kevin. All the best.
\n <\/p>\n

Michael Yardney<\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, the mining boom is well and truly over, so what\u2019s going to drive our economy now? That\u2019s the question we pose today of Michael Yardney from Metropole Property Strategists.
\nMichael, your answer to that?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 I think we use to, in the old days, live off the sheep\u2019s back around Federation time, and then we were a manufacturing country. We were protected from the Global Financial Crisis by the fortuitously timed resources boom spurred by China\u2019s insatiable appetite for almost anything we could dig out of the ground at the time. But, Kevin, that boom is over, and I don\u2019t think it is going to come back again ever to that level.
\nThe government was looking for other ways to drive our economy. Initially, it was real estate, the property sector, the construction sector, and that has carried us through for a few years. But I guess a good question is what industries are going to take us into the future? The simple answer is service industries, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Let\u2019s talk a bit more about that, Michael.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Service industries are going to drive our long-term growth, and that\u2019s in particular the health industry, the finance industry, insurance, and education. It\u2019s not just servicing Australians but servicing our geographic neighbors, also, including Asia and China.
\nInterestingly, I was surprised when I read a report from the ANZ Bank and Price Waterhouse saying that service-based industries \u2013 like I said, finance, engineering, education, tourism \u2013 already employ nine out of ten people, Kevin. They account for 75% of Australia\u2019s GDP, so it\u2019s quite significant.
\nBut the suggestion is it\u2019s where the growth will be in the future, and that\u2019s where wages growth is going to be. In my mind, that\u2019s what investors should keep an eye on, because that\u2019s where people are going to also be able to afford \u2013 if they get higher wages growth \u2013 to pay more for properties, and that will lead to capital growth of properties, as well.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 But, Michael, these service industries are predominantly city-based, aren\u2019t they? What does that mean for the regional areas?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Unfortunately, it means that more of our migrants and more of our locals are going to be moving to the big capital cities. If you look at 2015 \u2013 the current year \u2013 Sydney has created 87,000 jobs. The rest of Australia, including all the other capital cities, created just over 80,000 jobs.
\nThe vast majority of jobs created are currently in Melbourne and Sydney, Sydney taking the lion\u2019s share. That\u2019s where most of the migrants are coming. Remember our large population growth is basically being driven by overseas migration. Sure, we\u2019re taking some refugees, and sure, we\u2019re taking some family reunions, but the vast majority is people wanting jobs.
\nYou\u2019re right, Kevin. There\u2019s going to be a bigger gap between the regional cities and the big capital cities. Even within the capital cities, Kevin, the majority of economic growth is going to center around their CBDs where the big office buildings for a lot of these industries are.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Michael, we\u2019ve seen in the past where governments have tried to encourage people to go and work remotely, particularly with things like the Internet, being able to work in those areas. Is that a possibility? Is that going to be the savior for some of these regional areas?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Kevin, they\u2019ve always talked about decentralization, and the government has attempted by moving government organizations and tax officers to the regional area. They\u2019ve also encouraged industries to move there with tax breaks. But in my mind, that\u2019s really just fiddling around the edges. That\u2019s unlikely to be a driver of major growth of population, wages, and real estate in the future.
\nLike other countries, our economy is going to change to being service-industry based in the big capital cities, and in particular to world-class cities of Melbourne and Sydney. That means we\u2019re going to have more yuppies\u2026 Remember that term from the 1980s?
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 \u2026Young, upwardly-mobile professionals who are going to be willing to and able to afford to pay a premium for housing because they\u2019re going to want to live closer to where there work is. There\u2019s going to be gentrifying of those inner suburbs. They\u2019re not going to want that really long drive or public-transport commute to the outer suburbs.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Thank you, Michael. We\u2019ll leave it there. Michael, of course, and his blogsite, PropertyUpdate.com.au.
\nMichael Yardney, thank you for your time.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 My pleasure, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n

Chris Gray<\/h3>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 With property prices continuing to soar across the country, first-home buyers and investors are looking for easier ways to enter the property market yet still build wealth for retirement. One of Australia\u2019s property thought leaders, Chris Gray, has the answer. He says rent while building a property portfolio. He joins us.
\nGood day, Chris.
\nChris:<\/b>\u00a0 Hi. Good to see you again.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Good to be talking, mate. Thank you.
\nChris, this is an interesting topic, but it is one I have to say that I\u2019ve heard a lot of young people are now doing. Are you seeing that, too?
\nChris:<\/b>\u00a0 Young people; even old people like me are doing it.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You\u2019re not old. I\u2019m old. You\u2019re not.
\nChris:<\/b>\u00a0 Look, it\u2019s a classic thing. I was speaking to a bunch of Deloitte accountants yesterday, and I\u2019m saying, \u201cHow many people want to go in the office and tell everyone, tell the world that they rent for a living?\u201d Everyone\u2019s going to look down at you and think you\u2019re poor straightaway. It\u2019s like driving an old secondhand car or something.
\nBut it\u2019s the way of the world these days. It doesn\u2019t make any sense, especially if you want super luxury properties, like the $1 million, $2 million, $5 million, or $10 million properties. This is the perfect way to get in because it\u2019s almost a third of the price.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 It\u2019s been engrained in us, though, to go and buy a home as opposed to rent because, as you say, there is a bit of a stigma attached to it.
\nChris:<\/b>\u00a0 There\u2019s a massive stigma. It\u2019s like claiming the dole, or buying own-brand foods, or something like that. Our parents always told us rent money is dead money, and that is true, but the main exception is rent money isn\u2019t dead money as long as you\u2019re investing the equivalent amount of money into property, shares, or business, and that\u2019s the key.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, that is the way to look at it, too. I guess the other thing, too, Chris, there are some restrictions when you rent. You don\u2019t own the property, so therefore, it\u2019s curtailed as to what you can do it with it.
\nChris:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s what everyone thinks, and that\u2019s the mindset that we all have engrained. But if you think about it, if someone says, for instance, \u201cI can\u2019t paint it the color I want,\u201d if you say to your landlord, \u201cI\u2019m going to get some professional painters in, we\u2019re going to paint it a different color, and when we go to leave, if you don\u2019t like it, we\u2019ll pay the professionals to come in and repaint it again in any color you want, and suddenly you\u2019ve got a brand new painted house or unit,\u201d what landlord is going to complain about that?
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Not many, I wouldn\u2019t have thought.
\nChris:<\/b>\u00a0 I have put in hot water systems into the pool to heat the pool systems. I\u2019ve offered to put in new kitchens and new bathrooms, and people say, \u201cWhy would you spend $20,000 or $30,000 improving a landlord\u2019s property when they can kick you out?\u201d I say, \u201cThe first thing is if I give them a new kitchen, do you think they\u2019re ever going to kick me out? Of course not, because I\u2019ll give them a bathroom the next year.\u201d
\nIf I\u2019m saving\u2026 As a good example, say a $5 million home and you\u2019re paying, say, 7% interest on it, it costs you, $350,000 in interest. I can rent that home for maybe $150,000. I\u2019m saving a few hundred thousand dollars, so why wouldn\u2019t I spend $20,000 improving it? Because I\u2019m still saving lots of money.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Because you\u2019re getting the lifestyle \u2013 aren\u2019t you \u2013 and you\u2019re actually being able to reuse your money much more wisely.
\nChris:<\/b>\u00a0 It is. It\u2019s just like, I guess, going on holiday. You don\u2019t need to buy the holiday resort; you just rent it for a couple of weeks because you only need it for that short time. Think of it as in housing. You only want to use that property for a year or two, so why spend all of that money buying a house, paying all of those in and out costs, whereas an investment, I\u2019m happy keeping my investment for 30 or 40 years, and then I just go and rent wherever I\u2019m comfortable living.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 The other thing, too, I guess is that by renting, as well, you\u2019re able to really choose the sort of location that you\u2019d like to live in, one that you may not want to invest in as your principal place of residence.
\nChris:<\/b>\u00a0 100%. Look, I got married about eight years ago, and we have two young kids. We just thought when we\u2019re a single couple, we\u2019re going to want different things to when we have little kids, where you have a pram and things like that. Then when the kids are older, you want something different.
\nWe don\u2019t know\u2026 Because we haven\u2019t tried that many houses or different suburbs, so how do we know which is the best one? Let\u2019s try some really big houses, some old ones; let\u2019s try some new houses.
\nWe\u2019re now living in a unit, which most people would think, \u201cWhy would you want to have a family in a unit?\u201d But we\u2019re in a round building. We have 360-degree views around Sydney. We get the whole floor, and you can see the Blue Mountains, you can see the Harbour Bridge, you can see Manly. We never thought we\u2019d want to live in a unit but until you try, how do you know?
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes. Very good topic, and a very good thought, too, Chris. Chris is one of the speakers who will be on stage at the 2015 Property Buyer Expo. It\u2019s on later this month, October 30 and November 1. It is actually at the Sydney Showground in Homebush.
\nYou have some tickets to give away, as well.
\nChris:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, exactly. I think it\u2019s something like $15 or $20 to get in, if you just want to get on the website or pay on the door. But if you go PropertyBuyerExpo.com.au, there will be a promotional code in there. If you put in \u201cEmpire,\u201d then they\u2019ll e-mail you those tickets for free.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 That is fantastic. Well done, mate. Thank you.
\nChris:<\/b>\u00a0 My pleasure.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I look forward to seeing you there, too, Chris.
\nChris:<\/b>\u00a0 Sounds great. Thanks a lot.
\n <\/p>\n

Corina Bailey<\/h3>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 One of the big hurdles for anyone with an investment property is actually having it managed effectively. Whether that\u2019s meaning that you\u2019re managing it yourself or doing it through an agency, you need to make sure that you\u2019re up to date with all of the legislation because even though it\u2019s under the care of an agent, you are still responsible.
\nI\u2019m going to find out a little bit more about this because it would appear that despite the fact that there have been a number of inquests and inquiries and changes that should have been made, lots haven\u2019t changed in the industry. Joining me now is Corina Bailey from LandlordSpecialists.com.au, who\u2019s also dubbed as the Landlord Guru.
\nCorina, thank you for your time today.
\nCorina:<\/b>\u00a0 You\u2019re welcome. Thank you.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Things haven\u2019t changed all that much?
\nCorina:<\/b>\u00a0 No, that\u2019s correct. There\u2019s a lot of gray area, shall we say, within the Residential Tenancy Act, and there\u2019s a lot that landlords do need to be aware of in terms of their rights, responsibilities, and obligations.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I guess a lot of landlords would think, \u201cOh well, i\u2019s managed by a professional agency. I can relax now and not have to worry too much,\u201d in other words, it\u2019s arm\u2019s length. It may be arm\u2019s length, but they\u2019re still responsible for a lot of things.
\nCorina:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, that\u2019s correct. Unfortunately, there are a lot of landlords who falsely believe that by handing their property over to be managed by a property manager, that they are somewhat protected, therefore not liable or not responsible at all.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Your role is really to work with landlords, whether they self-manage or go through an agency, to make sure that they\u2019re well and truly educated. What are you seeing as some of the problems that landlords are facing now?
\nCorina:<\/b>\u00a0 There are just certain aspects they\u2019re not happy with. They\u2019re not happy with the communication that they\u2019re receiving from their property managers, they\u2019re not happy with the regular inspections that are to be conducted on their properties, and they\u2019re not happy with the documentation and the reporting side of that, as well.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You did a survey recently, didn\u2019t you? These are results of that survey?
\nCorina:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes. Look, that\u2019s correct. What our landlords want to know is really what is it going to take before the industry gets cleaned up? More often than not, hearing about all those tenant horror stories on \u201cA Current Affair\u201d<\/i> and the like.
\nIf I can take you back to an incident that occurred on the 19th<\/sup> of September, 2012, there was a death of a baby in Queensland after her father had fallen through a deck that required repair and wasn\u2019t picked up during a regular inspection. Consequently, the father dropped the baby and the baby was killed.
\nIt\u2019s these sorts of horror stories that are really, really making landlords sit up, and they\u2019re now standing up to have some things changed. What we\u2019re trying to do here is get the industry to become more accountable. Currently, there\u2019s no industry standard with regards to inspections, there\u2019s no auditing process, there\u2019s no guidelines about what is and isn\u2019t required when doing an inspection, let alone the fact that there are no training programs in place.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I was really surprised to read the results of your research where you actually spoke to a number of property managers and asked them some key questions. Some of their responses were actually quite shocking.
\nCorina:<\/b>\u00a0 When we interviewed property managers, we explained that our landlords are saying that they\u2019re not happy in this area, and when I asked, \u201cWhy don\u2019t you, as a property manager, see inspections as being important enough to have a professionally trained and suitably qualified inspector perform these?\u201d the responses amazed me.
\nA handful of them saw it as a [3:12 inaudible]<\/b> part of their job. Passing that information on to our landlords and they\u2019re astounded that a $600,000 investment property is only valued at around about $10. What sort of a quality inspection can somebody do for $10? Literally, they would just walk in and have a quick look around and walk out.
\nLandlords are telling us that they\u2019re not receiving reports. They\u2019re not getting any photographs, and if they do, it\u2019s very limited. Photographs are blurry. This is really important information that landlords need and property managers need because at the end of the tenancy, it\u2019s all of these reports that factor into how the bond refund fund is distributed at the end of the tenancy.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 How would you suggest that someone who\u2019s looking to find a good property manager actually knows that they\u2019re actually dealing with a good one?
\nCorina:<\/b>\u00a0 Landlords need to insist that regular communication takes place with their property manager, that the property manager is ideally doing quarterly inspections, that inspections are thorough, and that the landlord receives a report \u2013 a comprehensive detailed report and lots of photographs, because there are lots of things that occur over the duration of the tenancy \u2013 fair wear and tear particularly \u2013 that landlords need to factor into their budget, whether they need to be looking at getting carpet replaced and the property repainted. Landlords are wanting to make their tenants happy, and happy tenants means they stay long term and they look after our investment properties.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Okay. If you want to get a bit more information, you can certainly do that at the website. It\u2019s a great website, called LandlordSpecialists.com.au. I have been talking to the Landlord Guru herself, Corina Bailey.
\nCorina, thank you for your time.
\nCorina:<\/b>\u00a0 You\u2019re welcome. Thank you, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n

John McGrath<\/h3>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 The McGrath report has just been released. This is an annual report, and John McGrath actually analyzes the Australian residential property market. It\u2019s a great read. The author of that joins me, John McGrath.
\nHi, John.
\nJohn<\/b>:\u00a0 Good day, Kevin. Thank you very much. We try and do our best. It\u2019s an interesting market, isn\u2019t it?
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, that\u2019s what I wanted to ask you about. In your opening message, you say it\u2019s the most fascinating period you\u2019ve seen in Australian residential real estate in the last 50 years. What makes it so fascinating from your point of view?
\nJohn<\/b>:\u00a0 Good question. Look. I think it\u2019s a few things, Kevin. Sydney has been almost in an unprecedented growth spurt in the last three years. As we came out of the GFC and the markets stabilize, we\u2019ve seen about a 50% growth in the last few years, which is very, very strong \u2013 as anyone who\u2019s been in the market for a while would know. Melbourne hasn\u2019t been too far behind either. Sydney and Melbourne have been incredibly strong markets.
\nInterestingly, normally when the Australian market is in recovery mode, you see basically every capital city and a lot of the regionals growing at a similar time \u2013 maybe not an identical pace, but at a similar time. What we\u2019ve seen now is Sydney and Melbourne are almost decoupling from the rest of the Australian market, and they\u2019ve shot off. The rest of the Australian market is somewhere between flat to beginning its recovery cycle. Certainly, Southeast Queensland, we think, is in the early stages of what will be a three- or four-year recovery cycle.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 In your report, you talk about the Manhattan effect. What do you mean by that?
\nJohn<\/b>:\u00a0 When you think of Manhattan, you see that basically it\u2019s no longer an area where first-home buyers or young couples can really afford. They need to move out to the boroughs and out to Brooklyn and get out of Manhattan because it\u2019s really become a very exclusive and very highly priced enclave.
\nI think that if you look at inner Sydney, for example \u2013 let\u2019s say that\u2019s within seven to ten kilometers of the city \u2013 it\u2019s somewhat become like Manhattan. We\u2019re really looking at a $1 million to $1.25 million as an average price for almost anything in those areas. For young couples, even those who are doing quite well, it\u2019s very difficult to afford property in inner Sydney.
\nI think what\u2019s going to happen is either young people are going to stay home a bit longer with their folks and buy a property and rent it out until they can afford to live in it, or indeed, they\u2019re going to be pushed a little bit further out into the suburbs.
\nThat\u2019s not all over a bad thing because they do get creative, and we start to unlock pockets of real estate. Sydney\u2019s been a great example of some suburbs that a lot of people never would have dreamed of living in, and they\u2019ve become very, very exciting and edgy little precincts nowadays because people are moving in and they\u2019re renovating and retail is following them in.
\nI think this is just what we\u2019ve seen elsewhere in the world where prime cities and the inner part of prime cities becomes a very expensive product when it comes to real estate.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Some of the things that you talk about in your report \u2013 getting back to the Manhattan effect \u2013 these create great challenges for local planners. I noticed in there you talk about the global vertical villages that are going to be created. It creates a lot of problems or challenges for town planners, doesn\u2019t it?
\nJohn<\/b>:\u00a0 It does. But I think an important part of the solution is these infill developments where there is opportunity in a city. While a lot of people inherently are against development and high-rises, I think when you\u2019re talking about an inner urban environment, it is the natural and logical way to go, rather than just continued urban sprawl further and further and further out into the suburbs, which requires a lot more infrastructure.
\nI think that if you can just take advantage of the opportunities that are sitting under our nose in inner Sydney, Brisbane, or Melbourne, in the big cities, there is going to be great opportunity. But the problem is, of course, you need to be able to cope with the influx of population in and around. You have car parking issues. You have all sorts of other activities. You have pollution issues. Those things need to be dealt with, but I do think that there is really a need in the big cities to be doing more development of medium and high density closer to the CBDs.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 John, APRA\u2019s moves to make it tougher for investors to get finance is seeing a lot of investors retreat. We\u2019re hearing a lot of reports about that, even in this last week. Properties in some of the classic Sydney investor suburbs are just not selling. Do you think they\u2019ve actually moved too far?
\nJohn<\/b>:\u00a0 Well, yes. It\u2019s interesting, Kevin. Let\u2019s look at interest rates, which have been a key driver of this property boom in certainly Sydney and Melbourne. The Reserve Bank has wanted to reduce rates to help prop up the other ailing sectors of the economy, for example, retail. If you pull the lever on interest rates, well, then it does buoy the retail, but it also buoys the real estate market, which they\u2019re trying to cool down.
\nI think APRA has seen an opportunity to calm down the investor demand, which was becoming prolific. It was over 50% of the approved loans in the last 12 months were going to investors, which is normally about 25%, so we\u2019d seen a doubling effect of the investor demand.
\nWhile I\u2019m a free-trade guy, I kind of like to have as few manufactured imposts on the market and let free trade find its right level. I do see that there are opportunities to pull on the lever like this and maybe just calm down the investor market a little bit.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 John McGrath, thank you so much for your time.
\nJohn<\/b>:\u00a0 Thanks, Kevin. Goodbye.
\n <\/p>\n

Greville Pabst<\/h3>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 We\u2019re finding that the Melbourne market today is a very, very interesting market. It\u2019s classed as one of the hottest markets in Australia. But we\u2019ve heard lots of things about an oversupply of units, so let\u2019s get a bit of an update on that particular market. Greville Pabst from WBP Property Group joins me.
\nGreville, an interesting Melbourne market right now. What are you hearing about any oversupply of units and what\u2019s the cautionary note about settlement of some of these off-the-plan units?
\nGreville:<\/b>\u00a0 Look, Kevin, it is a very complex market with lots of different subsectors, but I think that the greatest risk that faces many buyers of off-the-plan apartments, particularly in Australia\u2019s capital cities, is that the lending landscape has changed from the time that they signed the contract to when they come to settlement. Of course, that can be some 18 months down the track.
\nI think that is going to cause many buyers potentially to get into some trouble, given that lending is now a lot tougher and the deposits are larger. I really do caution buyers to perhaps go back to their financier and just have a look at those numbers again, because if they leave it too late, they may find that they may not be able to settle the property.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, the point you make is a very good one. Anyone who purchased off the plan, say, 12 months ago with a settlement coming up, they should recheck with their finance because, as you say, particularly with investors, deposits have changed and so too have the lending conditions, Greville.
\nGreville:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes. Not only the lending conditions but a lot of banks that lent to investors have actually pulled out of the market. HSBC is one bank that has pulled out investment lending, and ANP now, as well. There are also limited options for investors to go to outside of the major four banks. That\u2019s almost like a little tightening of the monetary supply, which is the double whammy.
\nWe\u2019re also noticing that the types of products that are popular in the market\u2026 When I\u2019m talking about products, I\u2019m talking about apartments or houses. The demand for apartments and units is starting to wane, and that\u2019s reflected in their performance in the latest median house and unit prices.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Of course, if in fact there is somewhat of an oversupply of units in the Melbourne market, that\u2019s going to make that situation even worse, Greville.
\nGreville:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes. The oversupply of apartments, particularly in Melbourne, potentially could be a problem because of that valuation settlement risk.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Greville, the bottom line: make sure if you have bought off the plan, that you get back and check with your financier to make sure that you can settle.
\nGreville:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, definitely. Perhaps have a talk with the bank of mom and dad.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You might have to! Greville Pabst from WBP Property Group.
\nGreville, thanks for your time.
\nGreville:<\/b>\u00a0 Thanks, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Michael Yardney will tell us what\u2019s going to drive our economy now that the mining boom is over. With property prices continuing to soar across the country, first home buyers and investors are looking for easier ways to enter the property market. 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