{"id":5960,"date":"2015-10-01T06:30:27","date_gmt":"2015-09-30T20:30:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=5960"},"modified":"2015-10-01T06:30:27","modified_gmt":"2015-09-30T20:30:27","slug":"where-will-the-new-sydney-be-john-mcgrath","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/where-will-the-new-sydney-be-john-mcgrath\/","title":{"rendered":"Where will the new Sydney be? – John McGrath"},"content":{"rendered":"
Speculation is rife that the Sydney property market has had its day.<\/strong>
\nFor now.
\n<\/header>\n
\n
\n
In his recent column in\u00a0Switzer<\/a>, John McGrath addresses the speculation about where the next growth market will be.
\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Has the Sydney market peaked?<\/strong>
\nThis is the question on everyone\u2019s lips following a few weeks of low auction clearance rates.\u00a0\"John
\nAccording to CoreLogic RP Data, Sydney\u2019s clearance rate fell to 71% in the third week of Spring.
\nAlthough that is still a strong result in anyone\u2019s language, it is the lowest clearance rate recorded all year and is well down on the 80%-plus clearances we consistently saw throughout winter.<\/p>\n

So have we reached or passed the peak?<\/h4>\n

I\u2019ve been in real estate for more than 30 years and one thing\u2019s for sure \u2013 you can never pick the exact peak or trough of a market.
\nIt only becomes clear a few months after it\u2019s happened.
\nMy best guess is that we are about 80% through the cycle. But that\u2019s no reason for panic.
\nIt\u2019s important to remember that a \u2018growth cycle\u2019 and a \u2018boom\u2019 are two different things.<\/strong>
\nBooms occur\u00a0within<\/em>\u00a0a broader growth cycle. Sydney is coming to the end of its boom but the growth cycle will continue for a little while yet.
\nSure, prices might come back a bit in response to the frenzy going out of the market, but growth will then resume at a slower and more stable pace.
\nAccording to CoreLogic RP Data, Sydney\u2019s current growth cycle began around May 2012.
\nSo we\u2019re talking almost three and a half years of growth and within that, at least a couple of years of major boom conditions.
\nThe simple truth is it can\u2019t go on forever \u2013 if it did, then we\u2019d have problems.
\nThe market is cyclical and it\u2019s a pattern you can rely on.
\nI\u2019d actually be concerned if Sydney has another year of double digit growth.
\nWhat we need now is to put a floor under the fantastic growth we have seen since 2012 and consolidate this new level of pricing across the city with a period of calmer trading and price plateauing.
\nWhat\u2019s going to end the boom?\u00a0<\/strong>
\nWell, it\u2019s not interest rates \u2013 they certainly won\u2019t be moving north for a while.
\nThe restrictions on investor lending are certainly having an effect, given the high volume of investor activity that has powered this cycle, but so far it hasn\u2019t been a crushing effect.
\nWhat\u2019s going to end this boom is simple natural attrition.
\nWe\u2019ve had a long run of growth and soon enough it\u2019s going to peter out, simply because it\u2019s due to do so.
\nLooking ahead, South-East Queensland is next.<\/strong>
\nIt will be Australia\u2019s hottest market for the next three years.
\nWe\u2019re already seeing lots of positive signs up north.
\nInvestors who feel they\u2019ve missed the boat with Sydney and Melbourne should look to Brisbane and the Gold Coast for opportunities now.
\nHow much would you have given in 2012 to know that Sydney prices were about to skyrocket by almost 50% over the next three years?
\nWould you have bought?
\nWell, I think you\u2019ll be looking back in 2018 and saying the same thing about South-East Queensland in 2015.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Speculation is rife that the Sydney property market has had its day. For now. In his recent column in\u00a0Switzer, John McGrath addresses the speculation about where the next growth market will be. Has the Sydney market peaked? This is the question on everyone\u2019s lips following…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":4928,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-story"],"yoast_head":"\nWhere will the new Sydney be? - John McGrath - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/where-will-the-new-sydney-be-john-mcgrath\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Where will the new Sydney be? - John McGrath - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Speculation is rife that the Sydney property market has had its day. 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