{"id":5916,"date":"2015-10-02T01:00:03","date_gmt":"2015-10-01T15:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=5916"},"modified":"2015-10-02T01:00:03","modified_gmt":"2015-10-01T15:00:03","slug":"1-in-5-valuations-are-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/1-in-5-valuations-are-wrong\/","title":{"rendered":"1 in 5 valuations are wrong – Kent Lardner"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nIn today’s show\u00a0we will tell you about the evidence that shows that 1 in 5 valuations are wrong by as much as 10%. We talk with\u00a0Kent Lardner<\/strong>, from\u00a03Comps.com.
\n <\/p>\n

Transcript:<\/h4>\n

Kevin<\/b>:\u00a0 In my experience, most disputes in real estate seem to come down to price. There are discussions about whether or not the agent has given good service, but by and large, my experience is that most buyers want to buy a property for less than what it\u2019s really worth and most sellers want more than what the property is worth, so therein lies the first problem.
\nThen, of course, you bring in another layer of problems when you involve real estate agents who low-ball or try to buy listings, which we\u2019ll talk about in just a moment and explain what that really means, and then you bring in valuers who have a reputation of always valuing too low. Well, I was staggered the other day to find out that one in five valuations actually miss the mark by some 5 to 10%. What\u2019s happening?
\nKent Lardner is a good friend of ours and has built a website called 3Comps.com, which I\u2019ll explain to you in just a moment, tell you how it works, and how you can benefit from getting on the site. He joins me.
\nHi, Kent. How are you?
\nKent<\/b>:\u00a0 Hi, Kevin. How are you?
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Good. Kent, I wanted to go through that description because it really is a bit of a minefield, not only for agents, but for sellers, for buyers, and for valuers, when we start to talk about price of real estate. Let\u2019s have a look at a couple of the disputes that you have come across or the types of disputes, and maybe we can talk about those, first off.
\nKent<\/b>:\u00a0 Sure, Kevin. I\u2019ve been looking at appraisal disputes for a number of years. The first one that stands out is the listing price dispute, which most real estate agents know about. Certainly, that comes down to unrealistic expectations or agents seeking to buy a listing. Obviously, the better agents who can communicate the reality of the market and do a quality CMA can deal with that, but that has a flow-on effect.
\nThere are obviously a number of different appraisal disputes that I\u2019ve identified. The second being sale price disputes, where the appraiser or the valuer estimate may fall short of the agreed sale price. That\u2019s the focus of some of the research that I\u2019ve done more recently.
\nThe final appraisal dispute that I\u2019ve identified is the mortgage claim dispute. In Australia we have a few lender mortgage insurance companies, and typically where they\u2019ve been a little bit aggressive in some of the claims, that has a flow-on effect to the valuers, because they\u2019re obviously worried about claims that might follow through. That creates a bit of a cycle where they tend to be a little bit conservative or may feel pressured to be conservative because they may have been hit by a claim in the past.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 One of the most common questions I\u2019m asked is how do I really know what my property is worth? I nearly always will say, \u201cLook, get a few agents in and get a bit of an idea. But if you really want to know, make sure you get a valuer in.\u201d But maybe that\u2019s not such good advice.
\nKent<\/b>:\u00a0 It depends on the marketplace. One of the things we found through our study is marginally underpricing. When you look at the sample and the research I\u2019ve been doing, about 60% of them fell on the conservative side.
\nThe methodology that I\u2019ve been using is quite a standard test, where what we do is we take a valuation against a property, and then we take that and match it up to a subsequent sale. If that sale happens between three months and 12 months later, what we do is we index up that valuation and pair it up to a subsequent sale.
\nNow, there are obviously some things you need to call out there, such as it\u2019s a different market, etc. But when you apply that same methodology across multiple valuers and then compare the variation or the error rate, you can see some of the valuers have a much tighter tolerance or much narrower variance, and others do have a tendency to have a broader range of variation.
\nWhen I dive into that, what I find is some of the biggest variances or errors are obvious ones. It might be a change of zoning or it might be a renovation. But you take those out of the sample, and then what you\u2019re left with is the true error.
\nWhen I dig a little bit deeper, what I do find is that more often than not the comparable sales that are being used are often the ones that they\u2019ve done the detailed analysis on and they have them already in their computer, in their laptop, and they\u2019re re-using those same comparable sales. If you leave that too long, that has a bit of a flow-on effect, especially if the market is growing.
\nProbably the number one root cause of it is you have a comp sitting in the system that you\u2019re familiar with, you\u2019ve inspected the house, you\u2019ve looked at it, and you\u2019re re-using it, but it might be just that little bit too old and it needs to be refreshed.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 I guess there will always be room for error when you have humans involved like this. But balancing all that up, there has also been a lot of criticism about desktop valuations and how they don\u2019t take in all of those parameters that you\u2019ve just been talking about. It\u2019s a combination of two things, isn\u2019t it? It\u2019s the combination of getting some human involvement into a desktop valuation that\u2019s going to make it even more effective. Is that a fair assessment?
\nKent<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. I\u2019ve done a fair bit of analysis over the years on desktop valuations, and probably the irony a lot of people would see is that they\u2019re rather less prone to error primarily because the process by which the banks and the companies select what\u2019s eligible for a desktop. They go through a filtering process that identifies the easiest-to-do properties. Actually, one would argue that nothing really beats that full detailed inspection, what\u2019s happening is there\u2019s a bias towards those desktops because we\u2019re selecting the easy stuff. We\u2019re cherry picking.
\nOne of the theories that I\u2019ve long held is that if you look at the service areas that the valuers have to cover, they have to cover much broader service areas, sit in traffic, do detailed reports, and work quite hard. What that really means is that they\u2019re covering a broader market area.
\nCompare that to a typical real estate agent. I\u2019ve long held the theory that an agent who\u2019s focused on maybe two or three postcodes, maybe a dozen suburbs, they really deep dive into that market. They\u2019re inside the house continuously. They\u2019ve spent several hours in the house. They\u2019re actually really good at finding comparable sales.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 In other words, sometimes valuers could spread themselves a bit too thin, or even some agents are guilty of spreading themselves too thin by trying to take on too big an area, rather than become an area specialist, Kent.
\nKent<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. The crux of it is the more focused you are on a certain area, the better you know that market and certainly, the better you are at finding comparable sales, which I think ultimately, this is what it comes down to. It\u2019s about identifying current and relevant comparable sales to the property you\u2019re looking to sell or value.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Tell me about your new website, 3Comps.com. How does that work, and who can benefit from that?
\nKent<\/b>:\u00a0 3Comps is a really simple model. It\u2019s about an agent being able to select comparable sales, as they would in their CMA, and then passing that on to a valuer or passing that on to the companies that produce the automated valuation models. It\u2019s that simple.
\nIt\u2019s a free service. Typically entering your address in and entering three comparable sales. It takes about three minutes to do. Then by passing that on, the objective is to avoid appraisal disputes or avoid valuation disputes.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Who can benefit from the site, and who can use it?
\nKent<\/b>:\u00a0 Ultimately, I think it\u2019s the sales process that benefits. If you\u2019re looking to sell a property, if there\u2019s been a tendency to have a dispute, or if you\u2019re a real estate agent who has experienced a delayed process due to a valuation dispute, you\u2019d certainly understand the value in helping grease that axle. What it\u2019s about is creating a list of three comparables to pass on to the real estate valuer, and it just helps their process.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Can consumers access the site and get some benefit from it?
\nKent<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. It\u2019s accessible to the public. It\u2019s accessible to valuers. The site is 3Comps.com. All you do is search as you would search on a portal. For a real estate agent, they register, and they can upload and use the administration screen to upload their comparable sales.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 For a consumer, what will the public see when they go to the site?
\nKent<\/b>:\u00a0 It typically would only ever apply to the properties that have been listed. But what we\u2019d also like to do is have some use for it in that refinance world. If a real estate agent is associated with a mortgage broker or has referred a loan to somebody, it might be handy to throw the comparable sales in for a refinance, as well, if they\u2019re aware that the property is going for a refinance loan.
\nBut certainly for a new listing, it is the comparable sales that the agent would have already selected in their CMA. Certainly, for a home owner, they\u2019ve already seen those comparables. For a home buyer, though, it suddenly opens up access, and they can see the relevant comparable sales.
\nTo date, what we have is an increase in automated valuation models that are coming online. Sometimes you see good comparable sales; sometimes you don\u2019t. Most of the time, they\u2019re algorithm based, but nothing, in my view, really beats the experience of a local real estate agent to select those comparables.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Check it out for yourself. It\u2019s 3Comps.com.
\nKent Lardner, thank you so much for your time. It\u2019s been great talking to you.
\nKent<\/b>:\u00a0 Thanks, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  In today’s show\u00a0we will tell you about the evidence that shows that 1 in 5 valuations are wrong by as much as 10%. 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