{"id":4998,"date":"2015-07-06T08:00:52","date_gmt":"2015-07-05T22:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=4998"},"modified":"2015-07-06T08:00:52","modified_gmt":"2015-07-05T22:00:52","slug":"pretty-vacancy-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/pretty-vacancy-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Pretty Vacancy Rates"},"content":{"rendered":"

Are vacancy rates the punk-rock property analytic shaking up mainstream median indicators? We drill down to see if an anarchic data revolution is under way.<\/strong>
\nKieran Clair [@kieranclair]
\nThe calculation seems reasonable enough \u2013 demand for accommodation rises, the number of available properties falls, increased rents follow and property values aren\u2019t far behind\u2026 simple! Tightening vacancy rates are often touted as a great way to find suburbs undergoing a surge in eager tenants and all the potential upside, but it\u2019s important to recognise the anomalies.<\/p>\n

The analysis<\/b><\/h2>\n

Setting the parameters is all-important. We\u2019ve taken SQM Research\u2019s figures for February 2015 and ranked suburbs by vacancy rate across each state. The results have then been filtered by postcode to identify metro locations with the list reduced to the top 10 place-getters.
\nLouis Christopher, analyst and owner of SQM Research, says vacancy rates are an important part of an investor\u2019s data arsenal, but they must be used wisely.
\n\u201cIt gives an indicator in terms of the ease in which you\u2019re finding tenants, from a property investor\u2019s perspective, and whether conditions in the rental market are improving or deteriorating in terms of owning your property and finding that tenant.\u201d
\nOne oft-touted, broad rule of thumb is if vacancy rates are at two per cent, tenant demand is rising and rents will follow. At three per cent, rents and demand hold steady, while rates above four per cent indicate less demand and softening rents. Christopher says this is a reasonable overall view, but you really need to understand relative movement.
\n\u201cI\u2019ve seen instances where vacancy rates have lifted from half a per cent to two per cent. Now, two per cent on its own doesn\u2019t sound bad, and it isn\u2019t, but it\u2019s a relative movement. If it\u2019s gone from half a per cent to two per cent, it\u2019s most likely that rents will actually fall.
\n\u201cOn the other hand, if you see a situation where vacancy rates have gone from four per cent down to two per cent, it\u2019s likely rents will actually rise in such a scenario. It\u2019s the relative movement, which is fairly critical.\u201d
\nThe analysis can be skewed by other factors as well. Sample size is an obvious one. If your pool of rental properties is small, it takes just a few listings to cause big changes in the vacancy rate calculation.
\n\u201cThe other thing about our index is that we don\u2019t generally split it between housing and units, so it\u2019s harder, from our data, to obtain a vacancy rate just for units.\u201d
\nChristopher says the current low interest rate environment will play its part in the vacancy rate figure, because renters will move towards becoming homeowners when money is cheap to borrow. He says once the vacancy rate and its trends have been identified, it\u2019s time to take a look at asking rents and market movements particular to your suburb of interest. By learning about the past, you can reduce future analysis errors. We\u2019ve taken the top 10 lists to experts around the nation and asked them to identify the standout suburbs. Our team has also highlighted anomalies in the place-getters where they believe the figures fall short.<\/p>\n

Sydney<\/b><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Suburb<\/th>\nVacancyrateFeb-15<\/th>\n% changefromFeb-14<\/th>\nMedianhouseprice<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Collaroy<\/td>\n0.7%<\/td>\n-0.25%<\/td>\n$1,600,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bayview<\/td>\n0.7%<\/td>\n-5.21%<\/td>\n$1,608,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dee Why<\/td>\n0.8%<\/td>\n0.21%<\/td>\n$1,030,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Silverwater<\/td>\n0.8%<\/td>\n-1.51%<\/td>\n$600,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sefton<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n-0.27%<\/td>\n$650,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hornsby<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n-0.51%<\/td>\n$900,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Redfern<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n0.27%<\/td>\n$1,085,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Narrabeen<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n-0.24%<\/td>\n$1,400,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rydalmere<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n0.62%<\/td>\n$808,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brookvale<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n0.44%<\/td>\n$910,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

There\u2019s been plenty written about Sydney\u2019s runaway inner-city property market. We drew a 35-kilometre radius around the city and the results show the tightest numbers lie beyond the heart of the metropolis.
\nAmanda Segers, buyers\u2019 agent at Amanda On My Side, says strong recent sales are probably counter-intuitive to what she\u2019s seeing in the current rental market. Supply is on the rise and that means tenants are, or soon will be, spoiled for choice. Segers is surprised vacancies aren\u2019t higher across the board, and says investors need to be cautious.
\n\u201cThere\u2019s a lot of units going up. Right now, my rental friends tell me that they do open houses for rentals and maybe one or two turn up if they\u2019re lucky, whereas 12 months ago, people would turn up and start outbidding each other because they were desperate!\u201d
\nSegers says there have been fewer investors in the market in 2015 because gross yields are heading down.
\n\u201cThe reason investors have gone this year is because the rental market is flat and [property] prices have gone up 20 per cent. Rents are now nowhere near what they were. They started at five per cent two years ago, last year they went to four and a half, now they\u2019re at about three.\u201d
\nThe city\u2019s northern beaches dominate our Sydney top 10, with five addresses in the region. Who could blame tenants for seeking this idyllic setting an hour north of the country\u2019s biggest CBD? Segers says unit construction is rife, however, so she expects vacancies to rise. The results are seasonal, too, with sunshine attracting tenants like moths to a flame.
\n\u201cBayview and Dee Why, they\u2019re always going to be popular in the summer because they\u2019re beach places but over the winter time they\u2019re going to get a little bit soft.\u201d
\nShe believes Dee Why has gentrification potential, but investment should be viewed as a very long-term proposition. Those looking for quick profits will be disappointed.
\n\u201cDee Why is getting a big facelift. Over the next 10 years the government is going to put millions of dollars into making it more upmarket, but given the volume of units it will remain a cheaper rental option.\u201d
\nAnother surprise addition to the list is Hornsby, which lies 21\u00a0kilometres west-northwest of the CBD. Segers says Hornsby is experiencing a surge in unit construction, although there are great community facilities that will appeal to tenants.
\n\u201cHornsby has got a nice little centre and it\u2019s got a train station. People have moved there for cheaper living and to still have access to the beaches and city.\u201d<\/p>\n

Melbourne<\/b><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Suburb<\/th>\nVacancyrateFeb-15<\/th>\n% changefromFeb-14<\/th>\nMedianhouseprice<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
The Basin<\/td>\n0.6%<\/td>\n-0.64%<\/td>\n$471,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Collingwood<\/td>\n0.6%<\/td>\n-0.29%<\/td>\n$743,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Meadow Heights<\/td>\n0.7%<\/td>\n-0.35%<\/td>\n$352,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Carlton North<\/td>\n0.7%<\/td>\n0.20%<\/td>\n$1,018,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Williams Landing<\/td>\n0.8%<\/td>\n0.42%<\/td>\n$475,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brighton East<\/td>\n0.8%<\/td>\n-1.83%<\/td>\n$1,255,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Keilor<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n-2.18%<\/td>\n$635,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mooroolbark<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n-0.10%<\/td>\n$465,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fitzroy<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n0.11%<\/td>\n$970,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Thomastown<\/td>\n1.1%<\/td>\n-0.84%<\/td>\n$409,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Ben Kingsley, founding director of Empower Wealth and chairman of Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) says Melbourne is experiencing city-led market growth.
\n\u201cThe inner-fringe areas of Melbourne have spawned the next lot of price growth. That\u2019s coming out from the eastern suburbs and the inner-northern and now the inner-western areas.\u201d
\nHe says inner-city and city-fringe suburbs are showing good tenant demand due to their lifestyle drivers.
\n\u201cThey [tenants] want to be closer to the CBD to try and get that lifestyle element that brings all the convenience of them being close to work. They\u2019re time-poor and they\u2019re happy to pay a premium in rent to be in an area that gives them all of those things and makes their life enjoyable.\u201d
\nOur top 10 list includes Thomastown, which is an affordable suburb about 16.5 kilometres north of the CBD. Kingsley says it borders the suburb of Bundoora, which is an interesting mix of established housing and new subdivisions. He believes Thomastown\u2019s rental demand is feeding off Bundoora\u2019s profile, but he doesn\u2019t foresee stellar growth in the short-term.
\n\u201cCertainly, if I was looking at Thomastown as an opportunity, I\u2019d be focused on buying below the median price and an asset that could do with a lick of paint and a tidy up\u2026 I\u2019d be buying sub-$400,000s.\u201d<\/p>\n

“If I was looking at Thomastown as an opportunity, I\u2019d be focused on buying below the median price.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Kingsley is more enamoured with Keilor, where town-planning changes are resulting in new development that\u2019s set to benefit residents and property owners. Parcels of land are to be revitalised with medium-density, mixed-use buildings offering retail and entertainment facilities.
\n\u201cWhen you get a reasonable concentration of that, you start to get critical mass to support the restaurants and give that \u2018liveability score\u2019 a lift.\u201d
\nKingsley\u2019s only caution is to keep an eye on oversupply and absorption. Your best bets will be long-term, he says.<\/p>\n

Brisbane<\/b><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Suburb<\/th>\nVacancyrateFeb-15<\/th>\n% changefromFeb-14<\/th>\nMedianhouseprice<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Capalaba<\/td>\n0.6%<\/td>\n-0.10%<\/td>\n$430,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Alexandra Hills<\/td>\n0.8%<\/td>\n0.10%<\/td>\n$410,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Eatons Hill<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n0.20%<\/td>\n$570,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wakerley<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n-1.40%<\/td>\n$680,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Keperra<\/td>\n1.0%<\/td>\n-0.10%<\/td>\n$460,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Birkdale<\/td>\n1.0%<\/td>\n0.50%<\/td>\n$481,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Murarrie<\/td>\n1.0%<\/td>\n0.20%<\/td>\n$585,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hemmant<\/td>\n1.0%<\/td>\n0.70%<\/td>\n$420,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bald Hills<\/td>\n1.1%<\/td>\n0.40%<\/td>\n$390,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Inala<\/td>\n1.1%<\/td>\n0.20%<\/td>\n$306,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Jonathan Millar, founding director of JDMA Property Valuations, says recent market performance in Brisbane has been good.
\n\u201cThere\u2019s more activity in the market and more competition for properties, particularly for houses.
\n\u201cWe\u2019re seeing more requests for pre-purchase valuations from interstate, and the prestige market has started to come back as well, with an increase in the number of million-dollar-plus homes selling.\u201d
\nOf those suburbs filling out the top\u00a010, Keperra received the most kudos from our experts. Millar says investors should work the angles to boost their returns.
\n\u201cKeperra is close to the 10-kilometre ring that I like to stick to and is on the train line. Purchasing a highset home, where you can build in under to create a second occupancy, is a good strategy for paying off a property quickly.\u201d
\nHe\u2019s less keen on the affordable suburb of Inala.
\n\u201cIn Inala, you can buy for $300,000 and get a reasonable return on your investment as you can rent out for around $370 per week, however the long-term capital gains aren\u2019t going to be as impressive as other areas.\u201d
\nZoran Solano, buyers\u2019 agent with Hot Property Specialists, agrees Keperra is an interesting option, along with Murarrie in the city\u2019s inner-east.
\n\u201cBoth are within good proximity of the Brisbane CBD, which is important, and both have bus and train infrastructure servicing the suburbs.
\n\u201cMurarrie is close to the port of Brisbane, which is a big employment hub, and Keperra is close to Enoggera Army Barracks, which is another big employer. In Murarrie you\u2019re looking at a three-bed, one-bath, 1960s to \u201970s home suitable for value-adding. In Keperra, it\u2019s a post-war, three-bed, one-bath typical house for the median price.\u201d
\nSolano remains bullish about the capital.
\n\u201cLack of supply is still an issue in Brisbane as more interstate investors turn to Brisbane as a more affordable market with strong returns and growth prospects.\u201d<\/p>\n

Perth<\/b><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Suburb<\/th>\nVacancyrateFeb-15<\/th>\n% changefromFeb-14<\/th>\nMedianhouseprice<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Maddington<\/td>\n0.8%<\/td>\n0.05%<\/td>\n$395,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Trigg<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n-1.79%<\/td>\n$1,100,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ballajura<\/td>\n1.0%<\/td>\n0.14%<\/td>\n$487,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kelmscott<\/td>\n1.0%<\/td>\n0.49%<\/td>\n$381,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Marangaroo<\/td>\n1.0%<\/td>\n0.23%<\/td>\n$488,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Reservoir<\/td>\n1.1%<\/td>\n0.03%<\/td>\nN\/A<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hamersley<\/td>\n1.2%<\/td>\n-1.00%<\/td>\n$565,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Beechboro<\/td>\n1.3%<\/td>\n0.83%<\/td>\n$451,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Duncraig<\/td>\n1.4%<\/td>\n-0.02%<\/td>\n$743,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lynwood<\/td>\n1.5%<\/td>\n0.27%<\/td>\n$495,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Liz Sterzel, buyers\u2019 agent and director at Property Wizards, explains that vacancy rates aren\u2019t ever her first choice as an analytic.
\n\u201cFour of the top criteria property investors need to consider when purchasing a property in Perth include the suburb\u2019s proximity to the CBD, the ocean or Swan River, public transport and amenities that attract tenants, such as shops and schools.
\n\u201cIf you can find a property that ticks all four of these top criteria and isn\u2019t in oversupply, vacancy rates become a secondary consideration.\u201d
\nDespite this, Sterzel says there are interesting options among the top 10 list.
\n\u201cDuncraig, for example, is especially promising, being only one suburb from the beach and Hillarys Marina as well as being on the train line and freeway to the CBD, with portions of the suburb included in City of Joondalup\u2019s proposed rezoning area.
\n\u201cAdding value through subdivision or renovation is a popular strategy in Perth, and can really accelerate an investor\u2019s portfolio growth if done carefully.\u201d
\nShe says areas such as Maddington, Ballajura and Beechboro have also been singled out by their councils for future development, with Maddington already zoned to encourage higher density uses.
\nWhile these came up winners, other suburbs are seen as less than solid as it\u2019s hard to overcome some traditional restraints.
\n\u201cKelmscott and Reservoir both have very low vacancy rates at the moment, however their long-term potential is hampered by their locations more than 30 kilometres from the Perth CBD.
\n\u201cWhile it may be possible to find a Kelmscott property in good proximity to the train station, the commute to both the city and key business districts is off-putting to many potential tenants.
\n\u201cMeanwhile, Reservoir\u2019s draw-cards lie in its rural aspect, but with few amenities and no train line nearby, it appeals to a very narrow group of potential tenants.\u201d<\/p>\n

Adelaide<\/b><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Suburb<\/th>\nVacancyrateFeb-15<\/th>\n% changefromFeb-14<\/th>\nMedianhouseprice<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Banksia Park<\/td>\n0.3%<\/td>\n0.00%<\/td>\n$339,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Regency Park<\/td>\n0.3%<\/td>\n-0.11%<\/td>\nN\/A<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Highbury<\/td>\n0.4%<\/td>\n-1.85%<\/td>\n$441,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Novar Gardens<\/td>\n0.4%<\/td>\n-0.39%<\/td>\n$565,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kilkenny<\/td>\n0.5%<\/td>\n-0.79%<\/td>\n$420,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hope Valley<\/td>\n0.5%<\/td>\n-1.19%<\/td>\n$351,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Walkley Heights<\/td>\n0.5%<\/td>\n-0.52%<\/td>\n$513,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rosewater<\/td>\n0.5%<\/td>\n0.13%<\/td>\n$320,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Valley View<\/td>\n0.6%<\/td>\n-0.23%<\/td>\n$342,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kidman Park<\/td>\n0.6%<\/td>\n-0.13%<\/td>\n$541,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Margie Shean Coad, founder of Informed Property Buyer, thinks investors should include vacancy rates in their analysis.
\n\u201cI very much have a mantra that without all of the information, you can only make a good decision by accident or luck.\u201d
\nShean Coad says Adelaide\u2019s market is conservative by nature and hasn\u2019t seen the vast swings and roundabouts that larger cities sometimes experience.
\nAmong the list of 10, Shean Coad says Regency Park is an anomaly given it\u2019s dominated by industrial uses with limited residential property options available.
\n\u201cIt\u2019s not a market that an investor looking to purchase in a residential environment would probably consider.\u201d
\nBanksia Park, on the other hand, is worthy of further research as it ticks a lot of investor boxes.
\n\u201cHomes are typically three-bedroom, conventional-style brick homes built in the 1970s and often on large allotments of around 700 square metres. It\u2019s approximately 20 kilometres from the CBD, set in a good eastern\/north-eastern foothills location and offers good lifestyle options, with walking trails, parks, schools, major shopping and transport all nearby.
\n\u201cIf you\u2019re looking for a lower entry point investment, the area has over the past 12 months shown to be a good high\u00a0yield, low vacancy rate and high demand option.\u201d<\/p>\n

More data –\u00a0<\/b>Click here to see all our Top 10 suburbs mapped<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

*Median house price and rents supplied by Australian Property Monitors.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Are vacancy rates the punk-rock property analytic shaking up mainstream median indicators? We drill down to see if an anarchic data revolution is under way.
\nKieran Clair [@kieranclair]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":5000,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,25],"tags":[70,111],"class_list":["post-4998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-story","category-sponsored-channels","tag-featured","tag-property-market"],"yoast_head":"\nPretty Vacancy Rates - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/pretty-vacancy-rates\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pretty Vacancy Rates - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Are vacancy rates the punk-rock property analytic shaking up mainstream median indicators? We drill down to see if an anarchic data revolution is under way. 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