{"id":4745,"date":"2015-06-05T14:48:41","date_gmt":"2015-06-05T04:48:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=4745"},"modified":"2015-06-05T14:48:41","modified_gmt":"2015-06-05T04:48:41","slug":"why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Sydney property prices won&#039;t fall &#8211; John McGrath"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In his recent column in\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.switzer.com.au\/the-experts\/john-mcgrath-property-expert\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Switzer<\/a>, John McGrath discusses Sydney property prices and why he believes they won&#8217;t be dropping anytime soon.<\/p>\n<h4>Here&#8217;s what he had to say:<\/h4>\n<p>So we\u2019re well into the third year of substantial price growth in Sydney, with home values up almost 7% in 2015 (CoreLogic RP Data) and we\u2019re not even at the half way mark yet.<br \/>\n<img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" alt=\"John Mcgrath\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/JohnMcgrath-300x182.jpg?resize=300%2C182\" width=\"300\" height=\"182\" \/><br \/>\nThe boom was not expected to continue this far into 2015.<br \/>\nWe saw a dampening of the market in November 2014 when a lot of stock came online and indications at the time were that we might be coming to the end of the rapid growth period.<br \/>\nBut the market has kept going, in part due to two further interest rate cuts which have done a lot to keep buyers engaged.<br \/>\nBut as prices keep rising, so does the intensity of discussion around price bubbles and the apparent potential for collapse of property values in the Sydney market.<br \/>\nI believe that buyers and sellers need to ignore this commentary.<br \/>\n<strong>Sydney has proven itself over and over again to be one of the most resilient property markets in the world.<\/strong><br \/>\nThere are reasons for this and most of them relate to long-term fundamentals that form a bedrock of strength for the market.<br \/>\nA big fundamental is that Sydney is vastly undersupplied with natural borders that limit the amount of new homes that can be built, yet demand keeps on rising due to the city\u2019s strong population growth and increasing engagement from overseas buyers.<br \/>\nI read with interest an opinion piece by one of Australia\u2019s most respected business and investment journalists, Robert Gottliebsen in\u00a0<em>The Australian\u00a0<\/em>recently that laid out some great statistics on Sydney\u2019s supply\/demand equation at it stands right now.<br \/>\n<strong>The article underlines why prices aren\u2019t going to come crashing down and in fact, why they\u2019re likely to keep on rising for the next 15 years.<\/strong><br \/>\nHere\u2019s a rundown of Gottliebsen\u2019s article, which is based on data from Infrastructure Australia and the Housing Industry Association:<img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" alt=\"sydney-harbour\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/propertyupdate.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/sydney-harbour-300x182.jpg?resize=300%2C182\" width=\"300\" height=\"182\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sydney\u2019s population is expected to reach 6.1 million in 2031, which means 80,000 new people will move here each year.<\/li>\n<li>Based on the assumption of 1.5 people per dwelling (in recognition of the rise in apartment living), Sydney will need 53,000 new dwellings per year.<\/li>\n<li>The HIA says 54,000 new dwellings will commence in NSW in 2015 \u2013 but that\u2019s for the entire state.<br \/>\nThat\u2019s also a record high figure, with annual new builds expected to decline to 47,000 per year over the next four years<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The disparity between supply and demand is pretty plain here. Sydney is going to remain under supplied and supply\/demand is pretty much the ballgame when it comes to price pressure.<br \/>\nNow of course, the boom is definitely going to end at some point.<br \/>\nThat doesn\u2019t mean price growth will end, it will continue on but in a less spectacular fashion<strong>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4>What will bring us out of the boom?<\/h4>\n<p>There are a few things.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The market will at some point reach a natural peak \u2013 prices will get too high and buyers will lose interest.This isn\u2019t happening yet, partly because finance is so cheap.<\/li>\n<li>Investor activity, which has been a major driver of Sydney\u2019s boom, will taper off as yields become too low.<\/li>\n<li>Interest rates will begin rising at some stage as the economy improves and this will put the brakes on activity \u2013 but this is a long way off.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Sydney property market is being very heavily scrutinised at the moment because it\u2019s had so much growth and yes, it\u2019s a bit unusual to have such a long stretch of significant price rises.<br \/>\nBut it doesn\u2019t mean a calamity awaits us.<br \/>\nA big part of the growth we\u2019re experiencing today is simply catch-up after several years of little growth.<br \/>\nEveryone needs to calm down and remember that this is a solid, high performing property market in a truly international business hub and in my opinion, it is going to stay that way for a long time to come.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In his recent column in\u00a0Switzer, John McGrath discusses Sydney property prices and why he believes they won&#8217;t be dropping anytime soon. Here&#8217;s what he had to say: So we\u2019re well into the third year of substantial price growth in Sydney, with home values up almost&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":3125,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-story"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why Sydney property prices won&#039;t fall - John McGrath - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Sydney property prices won&#039;t fall - John McGrath - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In his recent column in\u00a0Switzer, John McGrath discusses Sydney property prices and why he believes they won&#8217;t be dropping anytime soon. Here&#8217;s what he had to say: So we\u2019re well into the third year of substantial price growth in Sydney, with home values up almost...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-06-05T04:48:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"rolanrush\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"rolanrush\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"rolanrush\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/384a57ac9e52cb9bf19896cb15eaa52d\"},\"headline\":\"Why Sydney property prices won&#039;t fall &#8211; John McGrath\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-06-05T04:48:41+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":690,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"\",\"articleSection\":[\"Latest Stories\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/\",\"name\":\"Why Sydney property prices won&#039;t fall - John McGrath - Realty Talk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-06-05T04:48:41+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/384a57ac9e52cb9bf19896cb15eaa52d\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"\",\"contentUrl\":\"\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/why-sydney-property-prices-wont-fall-john-mcgrath\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Why Sydney property prices won&#039;t fall &#8211; John McGrath\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/\",\"name\":\"Realty Talk\",\"description\":\"Your Trusted Voice For Property Investing. 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