{"id":3876,"date":"2015-03-28T00:00:39","date_gmt":"2015-03-27T13:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=3876"},"modified":"2015-03-28T00:00:39","modified_gmt":"2015-03-27T13:00:39","slug":"state-by-state-property-market-roundup-march-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/state-by-state-property-market-roundup-march-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"State by State Property Market Roundup Featuring 6 Experts"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nIn today\u2019s show we look at our property markets state by state in our annual market wrap.
\nWe asked our experts to tell us what\u2019s on the horizon with development and infrastructure in their state, any issues that might impact the market in those areas, if there are any areas showing potential for investment and also any areas to avoid and why.
\nAs we have done in the past, you will also hear them describe what you can buy for $500,000 and where to look.
\nOur experts include Peter Koulizos<\/strong>, Damian Collin<\/strong>s, Michael Yardney<\/strong>, George Raptis<\/strong>, Shannon Davis<\/strong> and to wrap it all up Dr Andrew Wilson<\/strong> takes an overall look at the national property market.
\nWe have it all covered for you today!<\/strong>
\n <\/p>\n

Transcripts:<\/h4>\n

Peter Koulizos\u00a0<\/strong>
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 As I said at the start of the show, today we\u2019ll be taking you all around Australia. We\u2019ll look at each of the individual states to tell you what is happening there; we\u2019ll look at development and infrastructure. Of each of our guests, we are going to pose the question, \u201cIf you had $500,000 to spend, where would you spend it in that location, whether that\u2019s a state or in the capital city?\u201d
\nWe\u2019re going to start off by heading straight to South Australia. I\u2019ll be talking to property lecturer and author Peter Koulizos. Peter, tell me about the South Australian market. What are you hearing right now?
\nPeter<\/b>:\u00a0 I just had a look at some recent RP Data stats, Kevin, and I know a month is not a long time in property, but just the last month, Adelaide was the second best performing capital city behind Sydney and it also had the second highest clearance rate behind Sydney. Sydney is out-performing the country at the moment and has been for the last two years.
\nSome of the positives for South Australia include the fact that the Aussie dollar is dropping. It\u2019s great for three of our biggest exports, which are manufacturing, agriculture and international students. On the horizon, we also have Holden shutting down, which I think we\u2019re going to talk about later on in the interview.
\nHere in Adelaide, we are quietly confident. We\u2019re not waving the flags because the stats don\u2019t show that we\u2019re going terrifically. The drop in the Aussie dollar is certainly going to help states like ours and Victoria, which rely heavily on the manufacturing industry.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Of course, South Australia has come in for some pretty bad press in the last 12 months to two years over things, like you mentioned the Holden closure. Car manufacturing has been the backbone of that area for quite some time. Is there anything on the horizon that looks like it might replace that?
\nPeter<\/b>:\u00a0 We have a lot of major infrastructure projects happening in Adelaide, in particular. I\u2019ve been born and bred in South Australia, and I have never seen so much infrastructure going on as I have seen in the last few years.
\nAs far as road infrastructure is concerned, we have what they\u2019re calling the Torrens-to-Torrens Upgrade, which is from South Road, which is our major north-south arterial road between the River Torrens and Torrens Road, is getting a huge upgrade.
\nFurther south around Darlington, there is a big road upgrade there, as well. That is coming on the heels of the Melbourne Expressway, which was finished a little while ago, and also the Southern Expressway which finished its duplication just a matter of months ago. A lot of jobs involved in that.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Those infrastructure developments you talk about, is that opening up more land for the area?
\nPeter<\/b>:\u00a0 No, because that is happening in already existing metropolitan areas. One of the great things is the fact that the infrastructure improving within the metropolitan area makes those particular suburbs around it more popular.
\nWhereas if you have, for example, the Northern and Southern Expressway, which do lead to the edge of the metropolitan area, because there is so much land available there and you can have a huge supply of houses, it doesn\u2019t do a lot for prices.
\nBut if you improve the infrastructure within an established suburb \u2013 because you really can\u2019t build too many more houses within that suburb \u2013 its supply is relatively limited and even if demand stays the same, prices do go up.
\nThat is certainly a very positive thing for those suburbs, in particular around the Torrens-to-Torrens Upgrade.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What are some of the areas that you think are showing some really good potential, and why?
\nPeter<\/b>:\u00a0 Suburbs that I would look at include Torrensville, Thebarton, and Mile End. They will be positively affected by the Torrens Upgrade. More importantly, those three suburbs that I mentioned are one, two, or three kilometers from the CBD, and there is a lot of gentrification occurring.
\nIf I can give some interstate examples, it is like the West End in Brisbane. The West End in Brisbane was for a long time, a down-and-out area, but for many reasons \u2013 including gentrification of the area \u2013 the area is now highly sought after, just like Richmond and Yarraville in Melbourne or Balmain and Paddington in Sydney.
\nThere is a lot of gentrification happening in the inner suburbs of our Australian capital cities, and it is certainly happening in Torrensville, Thebarton, and Mile End. Because they are so close to town, they are also very attractive to the international students because half of their university campuses are in the CBD, and the largest type campus in South Australia is also in the CBD.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Balance that up now. Are there some areas we should avoid, Peter?
\nPeter<\/b>:\u00a0 I think I alluded to it earlier. The fact that Holden is going to close its manufacturing plant is going to impact on those northern suburbs. Holden is centered around a suburb called Elizabeth. A lot of people may have heard of Elizabeth or Salisbury because they are the cheaper suburbs because they are such a long way from the city. But it won\u2019t be the end of the world.
\nIn South Australia going back many years, we\u2019ve had Chrysler shut down their plant; it wasn\u2019t the end of the world for Adelaide or South Australia. Even more recently, we had Mitsubishi shut down their plant, and it wasn\u2019t the end of the world for Adelaide or South Australia.
\nYes, it will have an impact. It won\u2019t be too severe, but for the next few years, I would probably ask for people who are listening to your show to keep that in mind. It\u2019s not just the people working in Holden, but it\u2019s all those other businesses around the area that supply stuff to Holden; they won\u2019t be needing as many workers either.
\nIf there is not as much work in that particular area, it\u2019s going to slow demand for property in that area, which means property prices will slow down, and you might even find rents dropping a little bit.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Peter, thank you very much. We are out of time, but I appreciate you giving us that great snapshot of South Australia.
\nThank you very much for your time.
\nPeter<\/b>:\u00a0 My pleasure. Thank you, Kevin.
\n 
\nMichael Yardney<\/strong>
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 So far in the show, we had a look at the South Australian market. Let\u2019s take you to one of the major markets in Australia now \u2013 Victoria.
\nMichael Yardney joins us. Michael, we should really look at the Melbourne market specifically.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Victoria is a very large state and the markets are very fragmented. Regional Australia hasn\u2019t performed particularly well with real estate, but boy, has the Melbourne market performed strongly. Last year, dwelling values grew about 7.4%, but interestingly, Kevin, most of the growth was in the last quarter when it grew 4.5%.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 We know that we have a tendency to want to live in our major capital cities, but what is driving the growth in Melbourne?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 It is a combination of population growth and the wealth of our economy that is doing particularly well. The markets have been driven by owner-occupiers, by investors, by self-managed super funds, and also by overseas investors.
\nAbsent over the last 12 months or so were the first homebuyers, but interestingly, rather than buying their first home, many younger people ended up buying an investment first. This created a very fragmented market. There are pockets of over-supply \u2013 unfortunately, there is more stock looming in some of those areas \u2013 and there are pockets where everyone wants to live. That is what is pushing up prices in certain locations.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 That over-supply situation you just mentioned, I\u2019m hearing a lot about that particularly around the Melbourne market. Is that something fairly acute, do you think?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 It\u2019s something that is going to continue on for a number of years, because the development cycle for these very big projects goes over a number of years. The under-supply of properties a couple of years ago created a demand. All these developers got in, and now all are coming on stream at much the same time.
\nUnfortunately, this is going to cap rental growth, especially in the inner city and the inner suburbs. It is also going to cap capital growth in those locations, and therefore, they are the sort of locations one should avoid.
\nI think the other thing is, in general, the market is not going to do the heavy lifting this year. This year for investors, correct property selection and the ability to add some value \u2013 in other words, manufacture some capital growth at a time when the market is not going to do the heavy lifting \u2013 would be a good strategy.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 With those two things in mind, if you had $500,000, where would you be looking at spending it?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 I would be spending it in those areas where the demographics are going to push property values up, areas where people\u2019s disposable incomes are higher. This is the middle ring suburbs and a couple of the inner ring suburbs \u2013 not the inner CBD \u2013 where young professionals have higher disposable income and want to live there.
\nIt would be an established two-bedroom apartment in one of the more Money Belt, affluent, southeastern suburbs where you could buy an apartment that you could add some value to. If you can\u2019t afford to do the renovation now, you can just keep something up your sleeve to do it down the track later.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 I\u2019m talking to Michael Yardney from Metropole Property Strategists specifically about the Victorian \u2013 or more specifically, the Melbourne \u2013 market as we do our rip around Australia. We\u2019re going to go over the ditch in just a minute and have a look at Tasmania.
\nBefore we leave Melbourne, are there any areas that you think we should avoid if we\u2019re looking at investing in that market?
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Clearly, the off-the-plan market is the area I\u2019d be avoiding. Also, the new house and land packages in the outer suburbs, because that is an area where first-time buyers are staying clear of. But there is still quite a lot of development happening, so there is minimal scarcity, there is the wrong demographics, there are not a lot of buyers.
\nThe other thing is avoiding secondary properties. Over the last couple of years when the Melbourne market was really strong, almost anything sold. Now, as the market is going to be flatter, prime properties, good properties, good floor plans, good layouts, and good locations are going to trump, while secondary locations are going to not sell well or not rent well.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 It places an even bigger emphasis on doing your homework, doesn\u2019t it? There\u2019s a great need to do it now.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Very much so, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 We\u2019re going to take you to Western Australia in just a moment with Damian Collins, but before we do and before I leave you, Michael, I wonder if we could jump across to Tasmania. Give me your view on that market.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 Hobart has had very little value growth over the last 12 months. Median house prices there are about $360,000 and the unit prices are $259,000. But they only grew about 0.6% last year. Over the last ten years, Hobart property values increased on average about 1.7% or 1.8% per annum.
\nThe trouble is the Tasmanian market lacks the drivers of capital growth. It has not got strong population growth and its economy is not doing well, so the people there can\u2019t afford to pay more. While properties are affordable and it is a lovely place to live, it\u2019s not an area where I would be investing. I can\u2019t see any change in that in the near future.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Wonderful stuff. Michael Yardney has been my guest as we looked at the Victorian and Tasmanian markets. We\u2019ll have a look at the other major market in Australia \u2013 New South Wales \u2013 a little bit later with George Raptis.
\nMichael, I just want to say thank you so much for joining us and for your input.
\nMichael<\/b>:\u00a0 My pleasure, Kevin.
\n 
\nDamian Collins<\/strong>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Let\u2019s take you to another market now, a market that\u2019s there\u2019s a lot of discussion about right now. You\u2019re going to hear from Dr. Andrew Wilson later in the show, too, but I want to take you to Western Australia and talk to Damian Collins, who is a man we talk to whenever we want to know what\u2019s happening in that market.
\nDamian, of course, is from Momentum Wealth; they\u2019re buyer\u2019s agents in WA. Damien, thank you for your time.
\nDamian:\u00a0 <\/b>Pleasure, Kevin.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Let\u2019s have a look at the WA market, I guess more particularly the Perth market. How\u2019s that looking right now?
\nDamian:\u00a0 <\/b>The Perth market is pretty flat at the moment. In 2012 and 2013, we saw some reasonable rises in the market. It tapered off over the end of 2014, and we\u2019re back to what we consider a balanced market where we\u2019ve got about 13,000 properties for sale, which is around about what we consider balanced.
\nOverall, the market is flat, but there are some bright spots still out there.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>If it has flattened out, as you say, and the equilibrium there with listings is starting to top out, that might augur well for the future, I would have thought, Damian.
\nDamian:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, it has flattened out. If we start to see listings rise to 16,000 and 17,000, that would be a concern, but at the moment, we\u2019re still looking at small gains. Last year, the market did 4%. This year, we\u2019re not expecting a lot. We\u2019re expecting it generally to be anywhere from 0% to 3%, a pretty flat market overall. If listings do rise significantly, that would certainly be a concern.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What is the feeling like, the mood like there with consumers in that area? Is there much happening with development and infrastructure?
\nDamian:\u00a0 <\/b>Overall, the consumer confidence is definitely down. There\u2019s still plenty of people buying, albeit certainly down on what they were two years ago. There are some few key infrastructure projects going ahead. Certainly, there\u2019s the Gateway project around the airport, upgrading of all the highways and roads around there. It\u2019s certainly making that Forrestfield area and surrounds certainly a lot more accessible. That should be done in the next few months.
\nElizabeth Quay, which is in the city, is more a city project, and we have a new stadium, as well, at Burswood. Look. There\u2019s a lot of infrastructure to come over the years ahead. It just depends on how many the state government is willing to invest.
\nBut what we\u2019re seeing, Kevin, at the moment is anything with development potential, that\u2019s where the real demand is. If it\u2019s just a standard house or villa, the market is pretty flat, but anything with development potential, there\u2019s still a lot of activity, a lot of investor interest in those properties.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What about some of the areas that you\u2019re seeing that have showing great potential? As you say, they\u2019re probably surrounded by those that offer development potential, but are there any areas that you can highlight for us?
\nDamian:\u00a0 <\/b>For the last five years, we\u2019ve been following the up-zoning or up-scaling of an area because what we\u2019re expecting in Perth is it\u2019s going to double to about 4 million people over the next 25-ish years, depending on whose forecast you see, so there\u2019s a lot of infill <\/b>coming. The way our clients have been making money is by getting on the front foot when we know an area is going to be up for proposed rezoning, buying in those areas.
\nWe\u2019re still seeing in Forrestfield, for example last year, even though the overall market did about 4%, a lot of those properties took 15% to 16%. There are still good opportunities even in those flat markets.
\nIf you\u2019re investing in Perth now, that\u2019s generally what you want to target. Certainly, over the next 12 months, that\u2019s where your growth is going to come from \u2013 anything that has redevelopment potential even if it\u2019s not now, longer-term. Still, longer-term, the fundamentals are good for Perth over a five-plus-year period. The next 12 months as a general market as a whole is going to be relatively flat.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>If I came to you with $500,000 and I wanted to spend it in the Perth area, where would you direct me, and what sort of property should I be looking at?
\nDamian:\u00a0 <\/b>I\u2019d be buying, Kevin, a development potential site in Forrestfield. Forrestfield is one of those areas that\u2019s going to benefit from the Gateway project. All the roads are going to be basically freeways, access right into the metropolitan area. Also, longer-term, there\u2019s going to be a train line out there underground under the railway line. Because of all that, the local council proposed to increase the zoning in a lot of areas, and I still think that\u2019s got some good legs to run over the next 12 to 18 months. That\u2019s where I\u2019d be putting my money right now.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What would I buy in that area for $500,000? How much land would be attached to it?
\nDamian:\u00a0 <\/b>You would get an 800- or 900-square-meter block, and look, it\u2019s only 14 kilometers out of the city. I was in Melbourne and Sydney recently, and you certainly don\u2019t get anything like that for that sort of price and that close to the city. You get a good 800- or 900-square-meter block only 14 kilometers from the city.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What would the zoning be on that block?
\nDamian:\u00a0 <\/b>Generally, the zonings are now R20\/40 or R20\/30, so they\u2019re dual zoned. There are certainly additional criteria you\u2019ll need to meet to get to the high zoning, but generally it\u2019s relatively easy. In an R40 site, if you\u2019re allowed to build apartments, that could be six or eight apartments. If you do it as a villa or townhouse, an R40 site would be three villas or townhouses.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>In that area, what would be the site cost, and is it calculated on the number of units that I can get on that site?
\nDamian:\u00a0 <\/b>Site costs are not too bad generally in Perth, because most of that area is flat and we\u2019ve got a very sandy soil base by and large for most of metropolitan Perth except the areas that are near the river, where it\u2019s a bit more clay. Site costs are never a huge issue in Perth. You can generally get away for $20,000 or $30,000 a site without too much problem.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Great advice. Damian Collins, of course, is from Momentum Wealth buyer\u2019s agents in WA.
\nDamian, thanks again for your time.
\nDamian:\u00a0 <\/b>Pleasure, Kevin.
\n 
\nShannon Davis<\/strong>
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 In this break in the show, we\u2019re going to look at a couple of the really big markets around Australia \u2013 \u201cthey\u201d being New South Wales and Queensland. In a moment, I\u2019ll be talking to George Raptis, who will look at the New South Wales market, more specifically, Sydney.
\nMost people seem to be talking about Sydney when we talk about the health of the market. But another equally as important market is Queensland, and so far we\u2019ve looked at WA and South Australia. We\u2019ve also looked at Victoria and Tasmania.
\nJoining me now to have a look at the Sunshine State, none other than Shannon Davis from Metropole Properties in that state. Shannon, thanks for your time.
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 G\u2019day, Kevin.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What is the news from the Sunshine State? How is the market looking?
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 It\u2019s been a very busy start to the year. I think mostly there\u2019s lots of out-of-area interest, but I think upgraders are really driving the market. I think there\u2019s been a lot of people taking advantage of low interest rates and wanting to make that upgrade to maybe a bigger home or something more special that they\u2019re after.
\nThey\u2019ve been quite active, and we\u2019ve unfortunately been up against owner-occupiers who are just wanting to pay whatever it takes to get the property, so it\u2019s been hard work for buyer\u2019s agents at this stage.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Upgraders: are these people in the local market or are these people coming from other parts of Australia?
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 There has been local interest, but also buyer\u2019s agents and out-of-area investors have been very prevalent. They\u2019ve been looking at properties that we\u2019re interested in. A lot of people flying in sort of thing and making offers and with a relatively short due diligence. It\u2019s just showing you the sign of where the market is in its cycle.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 It\u2019s a pretty hot market. Are you getting a lot of competitive offers?
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, definitely. It\u2019s something that we\u2019ve been up against. As agents you can see\u2026 We had recently 45 people on a deceased estate property that we were after on the first open. From there, there were subsequently 10 offers. That\u2019s a sign of what type of market we\u2019re in. It\u2019s definitely a seller\u2019s market.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 It\u2019s very important, then, to keep your head firmly on your shoulders and make sure you don\u2019t get carried away. I guess in this kind of climate you could pay too much?
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, definitely. I think we generalize too much. \u201cThe market is hot, everything is hot.\u201d In Queensland and Brisbane specifically, there are some pockets where there\u2019s an oversupply of apartments at the moment, quite high vacancy rates, and you don\u2019t want to be buying into those areas.
\nIt might look like it\u2019s an area on the move because there are lots of cranes and lots of building activity, but what that can mean is supply is increasing at a rate that demand can\u2019t keep up with, and you might be buying an inferior investment grade property.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 On that point, what are some of those areas that you should watch out for?
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 I think the postcode of 4007 at the moment has some oversupply issues in the Hamilton region.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Hamilton. We\u2019re talking about that Prestige area, are we?
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 That\u2019s right. There are lots of apartments there, and that\u2019s got a quite high vacancy rate. There are also lots of apartments being built in around that Bowen Hills and Newstead apartment. Hub suburbs like Mount Gravatt and Chermside, again, have big supply issues at the moment. I think all those areas will be good in the medium and long term, but in the short term, you\u2019ll probably expect some soft rents and soft capital gains.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 We spoke to Michael Yardney earlier on the show. One of the things he said was to make sure that you\u2019re not buying off the plan. Would you share that view?
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 Definitely. People are attracted to a small deposit now and being completed later, but like buying a brand new car, there\u2019s a big premium paid and often a lot of middlemen commission to project marketers, which if anyone has a change of circumstance, they have to sell quite quickly, can set a really bad precedent for the building. It\u2019s not the best form of investing.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 If I came to you with $500,000, the question we\u2019re asking everyone today in the show, where would you suggest I buy and what should I be looking at? Is it a house, a unit?
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 With $500,000 I would probably go for a townhouse in around that 6 to 8K ring. You get three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and one car park configuration, but I think it\u2019s a good option for upsizes from apartments, downsizes from houses. I\u2019d look for low-maintenance style living, a good courtyard, and ease of transport and employment hubs, as well. Look for the CBD, airport, hospitals, universities. All those are good for employment hubs and make sure that your property is always in demand.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Okay. Ruling out some of those ones you mentioned earlier, some of those areas where there are a lot of cranes right now. Certainly they come within that 6 kilometer radius, but just be careful of those and particularly the new ones?
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, definitely. I think sometimes people can be sold on \u201cthis is a really fast-growing area,\u201d and that is good for developers and builders and construction workers, but not necessarily good for the end investor. It\u2019s sometimes easy to be caught up in that hype.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 It is indeed. Shannon Davis from Metropole Properties in Brisbane taking a look there at the Queensland market. Just before I leave you, about 30 seconds if you could, Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast, what are you hearing about those two markets?
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 They\u2019re holiday destinations, and they will do better in a rising market as will most areas in Australia, but because of the level of discretionary property up there \u2013 meaning not a necessity, it\u2019s a holiday home \u2013 they can be quite elastic. They do well in good areas, and I expect them to do well now, but in a financial contraction or correction, you can see those areas more exposed.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 So go to those areas if you\u2019re specifically looking for a holiday home?
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes, or lifestyle reasons or something like that, but if it\u2019s for investment, a lot better investments than holiday homes or apartments.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 You would be looking more at the Brisbane market?
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 Yes. Somewhere where people don\u2019t have to drive more than half an hour for work. That\u2019s a good rule of thumb that you\u2019ll have lots of tenants moving into your property.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Always good talking to you. Shannon Davis from Metropole Properties. Thanks for your time, mate.
\nShannon<\/b>:\u00a0 Thanks.
\n 
\nGeorge Raptis<\/strong>
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 We\u2019ve left the big one till last, and by \u201cthe big one,\u201d I\u2019m referring to New South Wales, more particularly Sydney. There\u2019s been a lot of talk about what\u2019s happening in Sydney. Those ripples have gone right through the country. We\u2019re seeing politicians scrambling now to come up with different ways to get people into property.
\nBut let\u2019s find out what is happening on the ground in Sydney, talking to buyer\u2019s agent George Raptis from Metropole Properties. George, what are you hearing? Is it as bad as what we\u2019re hearing?
\nGeorge<\/b>:\u00a0 Hi Kevin. Gee, you can\u2019t pick up a newspaper today without seeing what\u2019s going on in the Sydney property market. I guess it\u2019s splashed all over the front pages everywhere on the media and so forth.
\nLook, Sydney still remains the standout performer of all the capital city markets. I guess what we are experiencing is stock levels that are at an endemic low. Where we are struggling is we\u2019re struggling with a chronic undersupply of property.
\nProperties that are being advertised currently are being sold at a faster rate than what they\u2019re being added. Obviously, that creates a bit of a furor out in the marketplace. We finished the year strong 2014. 2015 has picked up where we\u2019ve left off. Auction clearance rates around that mid-80% band. Some areas are probably in the low 90s. Sellers are confident. They\u2019re reading in the papers every Sunday how things are selling above reserve and what have you.
\nInterestingly, buyers are still confident. But what I\u2019ve noticed is that your first-time buyers have really dropped off, and we\u2019ve had that surge of investors that are entering the market and coupled with what we would call the change-up buyers \u2013 in other words, people in a position where they are up-sizing, down-sizing, that sort of thing \u2013 so it\u2019s a bit of licorice allsorts, really.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 There\u2019s a bit of talk also about wanting to put some prudential controls in against agents in terms of under-quoting and so on with restrictions on that, even talks of banning \u201coffers over\u201d and things like that. What\u2019s your view on that, George, as a buyers\u2019 agent?
\nGeorge<\/b>:\u00a0 Look, having been on the other side of the fence, I can understand looking at it from both perspectives. Look, it can only be a good thing. At the end of the day, we want buyers to be protected, we want people to get realistic information.
\nThe last thing you want to see is people being in a position where they\u2019re traipsing from one auction to the other, spending good money after bad on Strata Reports or Pest and Building Inspections and end up at the auction and do get blown out of the water on the first bid. So I can only see it as a good thing and that\u2019s something obviously the various real estate institutes are working towards.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 I want to find out from you, too, about some of the no-go areas in New South Wales \u2013 you may even want to focus on the Sydney market \u2013 and also look at some of the areas that you think might be worth our while investigating.
\nGeorge<\/b>: \u00a0 No-go zones would be where we\u2019re going to see a bit of an over-supply of properties, especially in those old commercial, industrial estates where they\u2019ve gone by the wayside and have been replaced now with big, monstrous high-rise developments where they\u2019re building thousands and thousands of these new things. I\u2019d advise to keep well away from those sorts of things.
\nAlso where there\u2019s abundance of land where they\u2019re unlocking new estates, where they\u2019re building new properties and selling them off to would-be investors or first home owners and then unlocking the next estate and so forth. I\u2019d be keeping away from those.
\nWith regards to some good opportunities, especially in Sydney, if we\u2019re talking apartments, there are some good little pockets of property where you can still get into something under that $500,000 threshold, which by Sydney standards I think is very good.
\nLittle pockets in like the south of Sydney, places like Bexley, which are about 12 or 13 kilometers from the CBD, showing you can still buy a good two-bedroom unit there for under $500,000. Places like Penshurst, which is about 16 kilometers south of the CBD, but on that Illawarra train line, where you can still buy two-bedroom apartments for under $500,000. I think it\u2019s good value by Sydney standards.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 What would that be renting at? What sort of returns would you get?
\nGeorge<\/b>:\u00a0 It depends on the price, it depends on the quality of the property, and so forth. But look, you should be getting somewhere in that 4% or 4.5% rental yield.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 That\u2019s good. And still getting reasonable growth on those units?
\nGeorge<\/b>:\u00a0 They\u2019re showing some really good growth, because what people are looking for is a bit more bang for buck but they still want to stay within the parameters of their comfort zone \u2013 in other words close to their jobs, friends, close to infrastructure, transport hubs, recreational facilities, and so forth.
\nKevin<\/b>:\u00a0 Good stuff. Always great talking to you. George Raptis from Metropole Properties. That\u2019s the wrap on Sydney. Thanks for your time, mate.
\nGeorge<\/b>:\u00a0 Thank you, Kevin.
\n 
\nDr. Andrew Wilson<\/strong>
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>As we wrap up a pretty big show, having taken you all around Australia, let\u2019s have a look at a national overview, not market-by-market. Joining us to do that, the Chief Economist from the Domain Group, Dr. Andrew Wilson.
\nAndrew, I know it\u2019s a difficult task to talk about a national market, but what\u2019s your view nationally and any issues that you may even see state by state?
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>Look, Kevin, certainly we\u2019ve started the year better than where we left it last year. Generally, housing markets have shown some renewed energy. Of course, that Sydney market has been strong, now entering its third year of boom time conditions. But I think the cut in interest rates over February really worked its way into confidence.
\nThere wasn\u2019t obviously much of an improvement in affordability with that 0.25% drop in rates and mortgage holders just got a little bit of relief in terms of their balance sheets, but I do think it\u2019s worked its way into confidence.
\nWe\u2019ve seen strong auction activity all the way down the Eastern Seaboard \u2013 Brisbane, Melbourne, and Sydney all with near-record numbers of auctions for this time of the year, and certainly higher clearance rates. That Sydney market keeps churning out those 80%-plus weekend rates, and Melbourne even recorded an 80% rate there, though February tracked back into the mid-70s.
\nLook, Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane certain started off on the front foot this year. I think increased confidence from those lower interest rates has worked its way into those housing markets and offsetting, obviously, concerns about our economic issues.
\nI also our other capital city markets are doing reasonably well. Adelaide, certainly middle bar, middle price ranges and upper price ranges in Adelaide continue to be quite solid as they have been over the last year. Canberra similarly, and even the Hobart market is picking up now and looking to have a good year.
\nThose markets have been in catch-up mode to some degree over the last few years, but I think gradually we\u2019ve seen confidence and those perceptions of still good value buying in those markets and driving changeover activity. I think they\u2019ll have another couple of solid years or another solid year for those Adelaide, Hobart, and Canberra markets.
\nPerth has been flat \u2013 no surprise there. It\u2019s had a real shakeout in the local economy, the end of the mining boom, and we\u2019re seeing a fall in iron ore prices, too, which is a little concerning for that local economy, and that will work its way back into the housing market.
\nBut I\u2019m not as pessimistic on Perth as a number are this year. I think it will be a flat year, but I\u2019m not sure the prospect of falling house prices are realistic. There\u2019s still a lot of first homebuyer activity in that Perth market, and even though certainly the economy is not performing as well as it was a year ago or years before, it\u2019s still quite a reasonably strong performance from that economy.
\nLook, generally a better start to the year for most housing markets. Lower interest rates work their way into confidence. Of course, it is the local factors that are driving markets. Investors still at record levels in Sydney, and with lower rates, that\u2019s likely to continue. It really is mid-price to upper-price range market driven activity levels in most capital city markets with those budget price sectors still a little flat except in the Sydney market.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Just before talking to you, we were talking to George Raptis <\/b>and his rap on the Sydney market. It almost seems to me as if the politicians are scrambling to get some kind of solution, because that\u2019s obviously a market that would seem to me \u2013 my words \u2013 out of control.
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>It is a very strong market, Kevin. Third year of boom time conditions in prospect now. If anything, the market lifted this year compared to last. It\u2019s even tracking higher than where it was a year ago, which was coming off of those extraordinarily strong results at the end of 2013.
\nLook, another strong year in prospect for the Sydney market. Strong local economy, very high levels of migration due to that market, and of course, the thing that drives the Sydney market is an under-supply of property.
\nThat keeps pressure on rents, on prices, it keep investors interested, and the changeover buyers continue to be active in the market, and why wouldn\u2019t they be seeing those double-figure price rises year on year.
\nIt\u2019s no surprise in an election environmental that New South Wales has been in that politicians are starting to tap into some of the concerns of perhaps unsustainable prices growth in the Sydney market \u2013 the perceptions, anyway, of unsustainable prices growth \u2013 and also trying to get more first homebuyers in the market.
\nLook, I\u2019m not a great advocate for demand-side policies, in other words, throwing money at buyers who are disadvantaged. I think we have to really increase supply in the Sydney market. That\u2019s the big problem, and unfortunately, that\u2019s really going to be a long-term journey to get supply up to demand.
\nEven the announcement of tens of thousands of new building blocks in the outer fringe of Sydney is really not going to address the problems in terms of first homebuyers because a lot of those new home and land packages are being snapped up by changeover buyers.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>We\u2019re almost out of time, Andrew, but I know all eyes are going to be on the RBA, the announcement coming out this Tuesday. Any tip on that before you leave us?
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>Look, the economy really needs to have more stimulus, it\u2019s restricted in terms of fiscal policy with the high government budget deficit, so we can\u2019t really spend our way out of trouble. It really has to be monetary policy that does the heavy lifting.
\nI think we will get more cuts in rates, but there is a threshold below which I believe we can\u2019t go \u2013 it becomes a negative for the economy with low interest rates \u2013 and that\u2019s probably about 1.5%, but I do think there are a couple of interest rate cuts in the gun. A lot will depend, of course, on how the economy performs, so we need to watch those unemployment numbers, and hopefully they\u2019ll start to go down.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>A question I\u2019ve asked of everyone in the show this morning is if you had $500,000, where would you be spending it? I\u2019m going to ask you that question but ask you to couch it in terms of whether you would spend it in a cap city market or whether you would look at the regional markets anywhere in Australia?
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>We\u2019re seeing some regional markets certainly activate \u2013 Wollongong is very strong at the moment \u2013 but that Sydney market keeps on keeping on. A lot of enthusiasm and confidence \u2013 in fact, record levels of confidence and enthusiasm \u2013 keep driving that market.
\nI think entry-level property in Sydney will remain a very good bet, because first homebuyers and investors are really fighting it out in that market, and I think we\u2019ll continue to see prices growth at still a reasonable entry level into that very strong Sydney market, which will continue to outperform all other capital city and regional markets, in my opinion.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Always good talking to you, Dr. Andrew Wilson, Chief Economist with the Domain Group.
\nThanks for your time, Andrew.
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>My pleasure, Kevin.
\n 
\n 
\n 
\n 
\n 
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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