{"id":22377,"date":"2018-09-03T01:00:21","date_gmt":"2018-09-02T15:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=22377"},"modified":"2018-09-03T01:00:21","modified_gmt":"2018-09-02T15:00:21","slug":"aussie-prices-to-escalate-patrick-bright","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/aussie-prices-to-escalate-patrick-bright\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie prices to escalate? \u2013 Patrick Bright"},"content":{"rendered":"

Patrick Bright<\/strong> suggests that Australian real estate prices are likely to escalate further now that the New Zealand government has moved to tighten up on its foreign ownerships.\u00a0 We challenge that thought with Patrick.<\/p>\n

Transcript:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>Prospective home buyers are warned that Australian real estate prices are likely to escalate further now that the New Zealand government has moved to tighten up on its foreign ownerships, similar to what\u2019s happened in Australia. That\u2019s according to an industry expert, EPS Property Search Director and author of The Insider\u2019s Guide to Buying Real Estate. No stranger to our audience, Patrick Bright. G\u2019day, Patrick.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>Morning, Kevin.<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>Good to be talking to you again. Why are you so concerned about this and what do you see happening, Patrick?<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>Well, just looking at the New Zealand government\u2019s decision, they\u2019ve essentially \u2026 New Zealand\u2019s got a similar problem to Australia and other countries like Canada, around the world, and Canada shut down the foreign ownership situation a couple of years ago. New Zealand\u2019s now done it. And attention, I think, will come towards Australia. Because it\u2019s already here quite strong and if you rule out foreign buying, you start narrowing down where they can go, then where do you think they\u2019re gonna end up?<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>The regulations, though, in Australia are much tighter than what they\u2019ve implemented into New Zealand. So why do you think that Chinese investors \u2026 I mean, there\u2019s evidence that they\u2019ve already left Australia, so why would they come back?<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>It\u2019s not just the Chinese investors. This is not a particular nationality issue. 66 foreign nationalities purchased property in Australia a couple years ago when the stats were last looked at in different countries. But the Chinese do make up a large percentage of that, there\u2019s no question.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>You\u2019ve also gotta look at the fact that they haven\u2019t actually completely left Australia alone. They\u2019re still here, it\u2019s just not in the volume that it was, because of certain restrictions that were put in place. But, really, when you look at it, it\u2019s fiddling around at the edges. It\u2019s not really stopping it, it\u2019s just loading up the cost of doing it.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>Now, if other countries are stopping it happening and they\u2019re gonna get their money somewhere, then they\u2019re gonna look at those costs and go, \u201cYou know what? I\u2019ll wear it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>I hear what you say. Chinese investment into Australian property has dropped by 50 percent, though. It has dropped substantially and I think if you look around Australia, foreign investment in the last 12 months \u2026 New South Wales has fallen by 70 percent, Victoria 60 percent, and Queensland by 80 percent. That\u2019s a fairly dramatic drop.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>It is, yeah. It\u2019s coming off of very large numbers. So in terms of the drop, that\u2019s great.<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>Well, is it great? I think it\u2019s not good at all because we rely on foreign investors predominantly to buy our new stock, and if we slow down the production of new stock, that\u2019s gonna put increase pressure on prices.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>Well, yes and no. What it is is that they\u2019re buying the stock, okay? And they\u2019re paying at a price they\u2019re paying is also pushing out the locals. So this is the problem that New Zealand\u2019s government recognised, is that your local property market, the current generation, is being pushed out of those local markets.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>So it\u2019s not just investment, people are calling it foreign investment. I think it\u2019s foreign ownership. \u2018Cause they\u2019re buying it, they\u2019re owning the properties. They\u2019re not just investing and they\u2019re not putting money into the economy. I think foreign investment can be a good thing done well, but this is basically foreign ownership of assets.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>And so it\u2019s putting the local population into a situation where their only option is, if they wanna be living in these locations, is to rent, because it\u2019s already foreign-owned. And so we wanna get people more into home ownership and not into ongoing, indefinite rental cycle.<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>\u2018Cause the figures sometimes are exaggerated, too, \u2019cause they include commercial property. If you take that out, it still only represents about three percent of all purchases in Australia. And that is actually declining, those figures are something like 12 to 18 months old, Patrick.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>Yeah, look, the stats I\u2019ve read and seen from new property off the plan is where a lot of this is targeted \u2026<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>That\u2019s right.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>It was as high as 40 percent in Melbourne, 30 percent in \u2026 24 percent in Sydney and about 30 percent in Brisbane. So, that\u2019s quite a lot, actually. When you look at maybe only 3 or 4 or 5 percent over the entire market, then it\u2019s different when you look at it into the new stock, which is what is being talked about and what they\u2019re trying to slow it down on.<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>Yeah, I guess the only saving grace here is that the restrictions, they\u2019re only on, only allowed to buy new property. Therefore, existing homes are exempt. So it doesn\u2019t really impact \u2013<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>In Australia, the foreign investor is restricted to new properties, generally.<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>It\u2019s the same in New Zealand, now. That\u2019s what they\u2019ve done in New Zealand, effectively.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>Yep, so they\u2019ve pulled that back as well. And it\u2019s all this stopping and pulling it right back because it was getting well out of control, like it was here. But they\u2019re still able to buy blocks of land and build new houses and things like that. So it\u2019s not totally just brand-new, off-the-plan property.<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>They\u2019ve limited, I think, blocks, haven\u2019t they, to about 60 percent ownership. So they\u2019ve made the restriction there as well.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>In New Zealand, yes.<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>In New Zealand.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>But in Australia we can still, developers can still sell 100 percent of any development.<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>Mm-hmm (affirmative). Yeah, New Zealand seem to me to have only gone halfway, you know? They\u2019ve even offered an exemption to Australia, which is probably understandable, but also extended it to Singapore because of their free-trade agreement.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>Yeah, well. You\u2019ve got some \u2026 Obviously there\u2019s some history there with Australia and New Zealand where Australians can buy New Zealand property, New Zealanders can buy Australian properties. So that\u2019s kind of an understandable \u2026<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>Understandable.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>A long-running thing.<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>Yep. That\u2019s right.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>Situation. But yes, they have, I believe, we\u2019ve extended it to the Singapore government as well.<\/p>\n

Kevin Turner:\u00a0<\/strong>Indeed, so it\u2019s gonna be interesting to watch. Take your point, Patrick, and thanks for sharing that thought with us. Patrick Bright has been my guest, from EPS Property Search Director and author of The Insider\u2019s Guide to Buying Real Estate, a great read. Patrick, thanks for your time.<\/p>\n

Patrick Bright:\u00a0<\/strong>A pleasure, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Patrick Bright suggests that Australian real estate prices are likely to escalate further now that the New Zealand government has moved to tighten up on its foreign ownerships.\u00a0 We challenge that thought with Patrick. 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