{"id":21082,"date":"2018-05-08T18:24:47","date_gmt":"2018-05-08T08:24:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=21082"},"modified":"2018-05-08T18:24:47","modified_gmt":"2018-05-08T08:24:47","slug":"which-locations-are-winning-the-property-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/which-locations-are-winning-the-property-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Which locations are winning the property race?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If one was to have made a strategic decision at the start of 2015 to invest in property, from a capital growth perspective, the median house price has increased slightly more in Sydney (43.1 per cent) than Melbourne (41 per cent) over the 3 years ending December 2017.<br \/>\nWith a 37.7 per cent increase in median house prices thus far, metropolitan-Hobart, where <a href=\"http:\/\/www.propertyology.com.au\/our-services\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Propertyology<\/a> began investing in mid-2014, is sitting very close on the shoulder of Sydney and Melbourne.<br \/>\nOne could have purchased 3.5 houses in Hobart for the price of one in Sydney in January 2015.<br \/>\nAs the race for this hypothetical investor continues to unfold, it\u2019s now abundantly clear that Hobart is about to hit the lead. And not by a smidge either; it\u2019s about to fly right past. While Sydney and Melbourne both started the 2018 calendar years with consecutive monthly price declines, data suggests that Hobart\u2019s property market is further accelerating from the 12.3 per cent price growth in 2017.<br \/>\nThe economy in all three capital cities looks like remaining strong for the foreseeable future. But, whereas motivated buyers who can still afford to buy in Sydney and Melbourne are now few and far between and large volumes of new supply keeps hitting the market, Hobart\u2019s biggest challenge is insufficient stock for sale which is adding even more pressure on prices.<br \/>\nWith Sydney and Melbourne\u2019s bull run now officially over and the knowledge that there\u2019s typically 6 to 12 years between growth cycles, investors might be wise to start to think about whether now is a good time to sell and recycle their profits in to other markets.<br \/>\n<img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/realestatetalk.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/MedianValues_Syd-Mel-Bris-Hob_1995-2017.jpg?w=1060&#038;ssl=1\" \/><br \/>\nThe annual holding cost on a median value house in Australia\u2019s two most expensive cities were digestible when the asset value was roaring ahead. But the tide has well and truly turned. Back-of-the-beer-coaster calculations which take in to account the initial purchase price in January 2015, current median rents, loan interest costs at 4.5 per cent, and other standard property costs, illustrate that the hip pocket is being hit very hard.<br \/>\nA house purchased at the beginning of 2015 in Sydney for the median value of $1,147,433 will today set the owner back $21,440 per year, assuming they initially borrowed 80 per cent of the purchase price. The same scenario in Melbourne equates to an annual holding cost of $10,837. That\u2019s significant coin to continue to outlay while waiting umpteen years until the next growth cycle comes along.<br \/>\nAnd those investors who leveraged against the equity in their family home to purchase an investment property, effectively borrowing 105 per cent (including acquisition costs like stamp duty), will need to find $34,000 per year in Sydney or $18,000 in Melbourne.<br \/>\nThat same fully leveraged house in Hobart will today only cost the owner $1,800 per year; it would be cash flow positive to the tune of $1,800 if the hypothetical owner made the purchase using a 20 per cent deposit. And the capital growth just keeps coming!<br \/>\nIf ever there was a chance of a capital city breaking Darwin\u2019s record as the last Australian capital city to exceed 20 per cent price growth in a calendar year (22 per cent in 2007) it is Hobart, especially in the municipalities of metro-Hobart, Clarence and Glenorchy.<br \/>\nAs Australia\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.propertyology.com.au\/lets-honest-people-profited-property-post-gfc-people-already-lived-syd-melb\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">only property market analyst to pick Hobart\u2019s remarkable transformation<\/a>, I\u2019m increasingly asked the question \u2018when will Hobart\u2019s growth cycle end?\u2019 The answer is \u2018no time soon\u2019!<br \/>\nNo growth cycle runs forever however, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.propertyology.com.au\/a-boom-bigger-than-sydney-beckons-for-this-city\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">all of the metrics<\/a> which shape one\u2019s opinion point towards further growth in Hobart \u2013 lots of it!<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>&nbsp;<\/td>\n<td>Median house value (Dec 2014)<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0Loan (@ 80%)<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0Loan (@105%)<\/td>\n<td>Median rent (Dec 2017)<\/td>\n<td>Asset Growth (3YE Dec2017)<\/td>\n<td>Annual Holding Costs @80% (Dec 2017)<\/td>\n<td>Annual Holding Costs @105% (Dec 2017)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Sydney<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$1,147,433<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$917,946<\/td>\n<td>$1,204,805<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$510<\/td>\n<td>43.1%<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 21,440<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 34,348<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Melbourne<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$703,405<\/td>\n<td>$562,724<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$738,575<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$395<\/td>\n<td>41.0%<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10,837<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 18,750<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Brisbane<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$431,600<\/td>\n<td>$345,280<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$453,180<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$380<\/td>\n<td>12.0%<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,754<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6,609<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Adelaide<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$532,944<\/td>\n<td>$426,355<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$559,591<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$345<\/td>\n<td>13.6%<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7,040<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 13,036<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Perth<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$898,844<\/td>\n<td>$719,075<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$943,786<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$330<\/td>\n<td>-5.8%<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 20,914<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 31,026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Hobart<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$330,882<\/td>\n<td>$264,706<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$347,426<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$380<\/td>\n<td>37.7%<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,872<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,850<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Darwin<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$580,833<\/td>\n<td>$464,666<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$609,875<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$487<\/td>\n<td>-9.8%<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,118<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8,653<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Canberra<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$560,000<\/td>\n<td>$448,000<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$588,000<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0$485<\/td>\n<td>20.5%<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,462<\/td>\n<td>-$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7,762<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"8\"><u>SOURCE<\/u>: Core Logic (median house values and asset growth rates), REIA (median rents), Propertyology<br \/>\n<u>ASSUMPTIONS<\/u>: Gross rental income @90% provides for property management and letting fees, loan interest @4.5%, $4000 provision for council rates \/ insurance \/ maintenance<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><u>\u00a0<\/u><br \/>\nCanberra (20.5 per cent), Adelaide (13.6 per cent) and Brisbane (12 per cent) have seen much more sedate growth over the last 3 calendar years. The median house price in Australia\u2019s fourth largest city, Perth, and Darwin is lower now than 3 years ago.<br \/>\nIf we were to describe the current performance of Australia\u2019s 8 capital cities as a horse race, Hobart is Phar Lap and it\u2019s up against 7 donkeys!<br \/>\nThe question that is on many investors lips right now is, \u2018<em>which horse should they back in the next race?<\/em>\u2019<br \/>\nIf you\u2019d like to know more about Propertyology\u2019s services, here\u2019s how you <a href=\"http:\/\/www.propertyology.com.au\/contact-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>contact<\/strong><\/a> them.<br \/>\n<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.propertyology.com.au\/your-results\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Propertyology<\/a> is a national property market researcher and buyer\u2019s agency, helping everyday people to invest in strategically-chosen locations all over Australia. The multi-award-winning firm\u2019s success includes being a finalist in the 2017 Telstra Business Awards and 2018 winner of Buyer\u2019s Agency of the Year in REIQ Awards For Excelle<\/strong>nce.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If one was to have made a strategic decision at the start of 2015 to invest in property, from a capital growth perspective, the median house price has increased slightly more in Sydney (43.1 per cent) than Melbourne (41 per cent) over the 3 years&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":21084,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,20,25],"tags":[70],"class_list":["post-21082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-story","category-propertyology","category-sponsored-channels","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Which locations are winning the property race? 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