{"id":20963,"date":"2018-04-29T01:00:56","date_gmt":"2018-04-28T15:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=20963"},"modified":"2018-04-29T01:00:56","modified_gmt":"2018-04-28T15:00:56","slug":"brisbane-units-in-oversupply-angie-zigomanis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/brisbane-units-in-oversupply-angie-zigomanis\/","title":{"rendered":"Brisbane units in oversupply \u2013 Angie Zigomanis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>According to BIS Oxford Economics, nearly 20 per cent of the apartments in inner Brisbane are sitting empty and more than 50 projects have been shelved or ditched altogether. <strong>Angie Zigomanis<\/strong> from BIS Oxford says more than 10,000 new apartments have been abandoned or deferred by developers in the past 12 months.\u00a0\u00a0 We talk to Angie to get his thoughts on what is ahead for Brisbane and those investors who have already committed to inner Brisbane.<br \/>\n<strong>Transcript:<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Nearly 20% of the apartments in inner Brisbane are sitting empty, and more than 50 projects have been shelved or ditched altogether as landlords struggle to survive in the city\u2019s over-supply crisis. More than 10,000 new apartments have been abandoned or deferred by developers in the past 12 months amid waning investor demand, rising construction costs, and lending restrictions, according to a new report by economic forecaster BIS Oxford Economics.<br \/>\nAngie Zigomanis \u2013 who is the senior manager, residential property, for BIS Oxford Economics \u2013 joins me.<br \/>\nAngie, thanks again for your time.<br \/>\n<strong>Angie:<\/strong>\u00a0 No problem at all.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 There\u2019s been a bit of a rise in off-the-plan sales since 2013, allowing for a greater number of projects to reach sufficient pre-commitment levels. Has this added to the problem, or has it actually created the problem?<br \/>\n<strong>Angie:<\/strong>\u00a0 Well, it\u2019s created the problem. At the start of this period, the inner Brisbane apartment market was fairly buoyant, vacancy rates were fairly tight, and those conditions set the pre-conditions for investors to pour into the market, whether it\u2019s local investors, whether it\u2019s investors from interstate, or investors from overseas.<br \/>\nOne of the problems you get with the apartment market is that people often buy in in today\u2019s markets, but because it takes two to three years for a major apartment project to work its way through to completion, often that project is being completed in tomorrow\u2019s market, and if enough people are buying in today\u2019s market, then you get the situation you have in Brisbane now where there\u2019s over-supply in the future.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Of course, some people will commit to buying into a project only to find the project doesn\u2019t go ahead because they just don\u2019t reach those levels.<br \/>\nHave you got a feeling about how many people could be impacted by this, Angie?<br \/>\n<strong>Angie:<\/strong>\u00a0 Not really. There are projects, obviously, that are pre-selling that perhaps are unlikely to go ahead, whether it\u2019s projects not getting pre-sales levels or whether it\u2019s the developer business being unable to get finance as well. That\u2019s become an increasing issue as well, just because of the increasing risk that\u2019s emerging for financiers in the Brisbane market. Many are pulling back, and it means that the next round of projects are less likely to go ahead.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 The latest CoreLogic Home Value Index revealed a fall in unit prices in Brisbane by 0.6%, pretty small, but still, it is a fall. That was in the past month.<br \/>\nIs that going to ease the situation, do you think?<br \/>\n<strong>Angie:<\/strong>\u00a0 This is the way markets operate, I guess. When markets get over-supplied, prices drop back to induce more demand. But having said that, I think, at current prices and at current supply levels, it won\u2019t induce enough demand. And I suspect you\u2019ll find the prices will continue to fall back further over the next year to two years.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 That has to be good news, I would have thought, for anyone wanting to buy an apartment. Wouldn\u2019t you agree?<br \/>\n<strong>Angie:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes, definitely. It makes prices more affordable and gets people into the market a lot more easily. The flip side of that, I guess, is also it means that if you\u2019re a potential first-home buyer, rents are very attractive as well and may keep you in the rental market longer.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 That\u2019s very true.<br \/>\nHow many unoccupied dwellings are there in inner Brisbane? Have you got a number?<br \/>\n<strong>Angie:<\/strong>\u00a0 Our estimate is about 17% of apartments, so it\u2019s a fairly high number. That\u2019s an increase from about 11% back at the 2011 Census. The inner-city apartment markets tend to have a high level of vacant dwellings anyway, because you tend to get people from regional areas who have a second home and a bolt hole within inner-city areas where they can come in, see concerts, and what have you.<br \/>\nSo, it tends to be higher anyway, but this is higher than you\u2019d otherwise expect, and I suspect a big part of that are recently completed apartment projects that are looking for tenants.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 We talk about inner-city Brisbane, but are there any better or worse areas of over-supply, say, coming outside of the Brisbane metropolitan area?<br \/>\n<strong>Angie:<\/strong>\u00a0 Outside of Brisbane?<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes, some of the suburbs like West End and things like that.<br \/>\n<strong>Angie:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes. So, within inner Brisbane, we suspect the areas with the biggest supply risk are West End and probably just northwest of the CBD, areas like Fortitude Valley, Bowen Hills, etc., where there are just huge\u00a0<strong>[4:03 inaudible]<\/strong>\u00a0of supply that are being put online, and the supply is being dominated by investor purchases as well.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Supply and demand is what real estate is all about. Have you got a feeling for how long it\u2019s going to take to adjust so that the market can get back to a bit more balance, particularly the apartment market?<br \/>\n<strong>Angie:<\/strong>\u00a0 We think that will be at least until the turn of the decade, so two to three years out from now, 2020\u201321, when you\u2019ll start seeing potential rises in rents and things start to get soaked up.<br \/>\nAt the end of the day, we\u2019re fairly bullish on the demand side, and on the tenant demand side, there\u2019s strong growth in overseas student numbers, which is a big source of tenant demand. The Brisbane economy is starting to show signs of turning around, and so we\u2019ll see increases in employment in the inner-city areas, and that will attract a lot of young professionals and young professional renters into the city and draw in migration from interstate.<br \/>\nSo, we\u2019re actually fairly bullish on the demand side, but just the supply side is very strong. We estimate that there will be over 8000 apartments completed this financial year, compared to a long-term average of just under 2000 per annum. So, this really is a supply story, not a demand story.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 So, it\u2019s not a matter of build it and they will come; build it and you\u2019re in trouble. But it\u2019s all about, as we said, supply and demand.<br \/>\nWhat are we likely to see in the next couple of years? Will these prices continue to fall?<br \/>\n<strong>Angie:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes, I think there will be further declines. There will be challenges for rents, and I think as new supply continues to come online in the next year to two years, it means that a person who completes a new apartment building may be able to keep the same rents but that will really be attracting tenants from secondary apartments, so people with older apartments that can\u2019t compete in the market will have to start discounting rents.<br \/>\nAs rents get discounted, it means the gap between what people are getting in rental income and what they\u2019re paying for their mortgage starts to widen, and there will be people who become increasingly stressed and will end up putting their apartments onto the market.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Of course, affordability is a big driver for sales, and Brisbane is still a very affordable market, I would have thought.<br \/>\n<strong>Angie:<\/strong>\u00a0 That\u2019s right, yes. We\u2019re starting to see Queensland now attract population from the other states again. It\u2019s taken a while because the economy has been fairly weak, and at the end of the day, there\u2019s no point in moving to Brisbane if you can\u2019t pay off a mortgage.<br \/>\nBut now the job situation is starting to pick up again, we\u2019ve started to see a big turnaround of people from New South Wales moving up north again, and just the most recent quarters of data coming out of the ABS suggest that\u2019s starting to accelerate.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Angie Zigomanis, thank you very much for your time.<br \/>\n<strong>Angie:<\/strong>\u00a0 No problem at all. Thanks, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>According to BIS Oxford Economics, nearly 20 per cent of the apartments in inner Brisbane are sitting empty and more than 50 projects have been shelved or ditched altogether. Angie Zigomanis from BIS Oxford says more than 10,000 new apartments have been abandoned or deferred&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":20964,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[32,34,10,11,13,35,22,25],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-20963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buying-a-property-topic","category-finance-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-development-topic","category-research-topic","category-sponsored-channels","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Brisbane units in oversupply \u2013 Angie Zigomanis - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/brisbane-units-in-oversupply-angie-zigomanis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brisbane units in oversupply \u2013 Angie Zigomanis - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"According to BIS Oxford Economics, nearly 20 per cent of the apartments in inner Brisbane are sitting empty and more than 50 projects have been shelved or ditched altogether. 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