{"id":20415,"date":"2018-02-28T01:00:53","date_gmt":"2018-02-27T14:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=20415"},"modified":"2018-02-28T01:00:53","modified_gmt":"2018-02-27T14:00:53","slug":"what-will-happen-to-property-prices-at-the-end-of-the-boom-john-lindeman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/what-will-happen-to-property-prices-at-the-end-of-the-boom-john-lindeman\/","title":{"rendered":"What will happen to property prices at the end of the boom? \u2013 John Lindeman"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Every good thing must come to an end.\u00a0 If only we had a crystal ball and could predict what will happen after a boom.\u00a0 <strong>John Lindeman<\/strong> has been looking at this and there is a lot we can learn from the past.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Transcript:<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p><strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 A lot of talk around right now \u2013 isn\u2019t it? \u2013 about the boom ending. The good times may be over. The Sydney market is starting to slow a little bit. Indicators are that Melbourne might do the same thing. Have you ever wondered, as I have, what happens when this does come to an end? What\u2019s the end result?<br \/>\nJohn Lindeman from Property Power Partners has been doing a bit of research on this and came up with some interesting figures, which he\u2019s going to share with us now.<br \/>\nGood morning, John, and thanks for your time.<br \/>\n<strong>John:<\/strong>\u00a0 Good morning, Kevin, and hello, everybody.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 John, tell us what happens when these great times, specifically Sydney and Melbourne, will come to an end?<br \/>\n<strong>John:<\/strong>\u00a0 It depends to a large degree on the nature of the demand when you look at who\u2019s been buying properties and where the demand for accommodation is coming from. So, what I did is I looked at every capital city and the number of rental properties and the demand for them, because what I\u2019ve realized is that even though most of the people who make housing market predictions are looking at the buyer and seller market, and they tend to ignore the rental market, it\u2019s actually really quite important because renters move a lot more frequently than owner-occupiers \u2013 on average, according to the Bureau of Statistics, about every four years.<br \/>\nIt means that even though they\u2019re only one-third of the total, because they move so much more frequently, it means that two-thirds of all the households moving every year are actually renters, and as listeners would know, most units are occupied by renters and owned by investors.<br \/>\nWhen you look at what\u2019s happened, say, in Perth and Brisbane to some extent, where there have been low house prices, a lot of aspiring first-home buyers have moved out of rental accommodation and bought properties, and so what that\u2019s meant is that the demand for rental units, particularly in Perth, has just collapsed. And it\u2019s also a place where I suggest not the best form of investment right now would be a unit in Brisbane. So that\u2019s increasing the demand for houses to buy.<br \/>\nBut when we look at Sydney and Melbourne, it\u2019s a totally different dynamic. You see, Melbourne\u2019s intake of overseas arrivals is about 85,000 people a year, and nearly all of these are renters, and they have to rent for a number of years before they can buy properties. I looked at Sydney and three-quarters of the city\u2019s annual population growth, which is 90,000 people, are overseas arrivals. And all of these people have to rent.<br \/>\nSo, what I can see in Sydney and Melbourne, in particular, even though prices will stabilize and stop going up, we can see massive asking rent rises over the next few years, and that will probably lead, once again, to more investor interest. But at this stage, I can see that Sydney and Melbourne are likely to become the cash flow capitals of Australia in the next few years.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Great opportunities here for investors \u2013 isn\u2019t there \u2013 to switch from capital growth to a good rental return with that demand, John.<br \/>\n<strong>John:<\/strong>\u00a0 I think that\u2019s what these numbers are telling us, that it\u2019s going to be cash flow rather than capital growth. Whereas in the other cities, if you\u2019re after capital growth, then you\u2019ll be looking at cities like Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, all of which have been lagging behind and have got a lot of catching up to do as far as price growth goes.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 John, just before I let you go, the event coming up in Melbourne on the 27<sup>th<\/sup>, just a matter of days away. The event in Brisbane, and the event in Sydney, both sold out, great success, so we look forward to Melbourne.<br \/>\nIf you want to get details on how you can meet John and get a good feel about what\u2019s happening in the Australian property market in Melbourne on the 27<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0of February, go to the website 7Steps2Success.com.au.<br \/>\nThey\u2019ve been great successes, John, and no wonder because a lot of people are really interested in what\u2019s happening with the Australian property market right now, too.<br \/>\n<strong>John:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes, they are. I think the wonderful thing about property investment is there\u2019s always opportunities somewhere, and as I said, if you can\u2019t get capital growth, you can certainly see the cash flow increase. There are always opportunities; it\u2019s a matter of being well-informed.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 That\u2019s coming up on the 27<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0of February in Melbourne. Don\u2019t miss it. The website again, 7Steps2Success.com.au, with John Lindeman from Property Power Partners.<br \/>\nJohn, thanks again for your time. We\u2019ll talk soon, mate.<br \/>\n<strong>John:<\/strong>\u00a0 Thank you very much, Kevin, and I look to seeing your listeners at the event.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every good thing must come to an end.\u00a0 If only we had a crystal ball and could predict what will happen after a boom.\u00a0 John Lindeman has been looking at this and there is a lot we can learn from the past. Transcript: Kevin:\u00a0 A&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":20416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34,10,11,13,36,22,25,27],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-20415","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-research-topic","category-sponsored-channels","category-trends-topic","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What will happen to property prices at the end of the boom? \u2013 John Lindeman - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/what-will-happen-to-property-prices-at-the-end-of-the-boom-john-lindeman\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What will happen to property prices at the end of the boom? \u2013 John Lindeman - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Every good thing must come to an end.\u00a0 If only we had a crystal ball and could predict what will happen after a boom.\u00a0 John Lindeman has been looking at this and there is a lot we can learn from the past. 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