{"id":19973,"date":"2018-01-17T01:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-01-16T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=19973"},"modified":"2018-01-17T01:00:00","modified_gmt":"2018-01-16T14:00:00","slug":"a-valuer-looks-ahead-at-2018-anna-porter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/a-valuer-looks-ahead-at-2018-anna-porter\/","title":{"rendered":"A valuer looks ahead at 2018 \u2013 Anna Porter"},"content":{"rendered":"

Let\u2019s kick the year off with a look at what and where you should be buying property in 2018. What markets are hot? What markets are not? What should you avoid? Former valuer, author, property market commentator and principal of Suburbanite, Anna Porter<\/strong> sets out her opinion on the year ahead for Australian property.
\nTranscript:<\/strong>
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Let\u2019s have a really good look at what the property market is likely to be doing in 2018. Joining me to talk about that, Anna Porter. Anna is the principal of Suburbanite, a former valuer, and her opinions are well sought right around the country.
\nAnna, thank you very much for your time. I appreciate the ability to be able to talk to you. Thanks in advance telling us what you think is going to happen in the property market. How are you?
\nAnna:<\/strong>\u00a0 Well, thanks, and thanks for having me.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Very good. Let\u2019s have a look. We\u2019ll pick up on a couple of points you\u2019ve made in a recent release. We\u2019ll work our way through it. The Adelaide market has been a bit of a cot case in recent times. Do you see some green shoots there?
\nAnna:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes, we certainly do. Adelaide has been pretty well slammed over the last few years as the manufacturing industry was closing down, and it\u2019s had a lot of heat in that market from looking outside in. But there\u2019s a lot of really good stuff coming to Adelaide, and I don\u2019t think it gets highlighted enough, to be honest.
\nWhat we\u2019re seeing is the major world-class hospital project \u2013 the $2.4 billion project \u2013 which has just finished completing the build, which is bringing in a lot of jobs not only in the hospital but the supply chain. If you own a coffee company or a florist or a catering company, a cleaning company, nearby, this is a really good thing for you. You have your submarines, frigate fleets, and corvettes, which is a military boat project.
\nSo, throughout these projects and a number of other things, we\u2019re seeing billions of dollars in infrastructure spent and thousands and thousands of jobs being created throughout Adelaide. These things are a really big uptick for the economy and the property market.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 We can see that there\u2019s some evidence of that, too, aren\u2019t there? I noticed you\u2019ve made comment in your article about all the numbers starting to align \u2013 low vacancy rates and so on. These are all very good indicators about what\u2019s happening in each individual market, Anna, isn\u2019t it?
\nAnna:<\/strong>\u00a0 It is. The stats that come out that do show those low vacancy rates, but then on the ground in real-time, what we\u2019re seeing is properties are going up for rent, and if they\u2019re in the right pocket, there are applications coming through from tenants \u2013 and lots of them \u2013 even before they get to view the property.
\nNow, this is reminiscent of Sydney or Melbourne two or three years ago. This is when you really start to get excited about what\u2019s happening in that market because that demand is starting to really creep in in a big way.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 A good sign for Adelaide, too \u2013 you\u2019ve mentioned it there \u2013 is the construction of the new hospital, but it\u2019s very close to the university, which is going to offer good opportunities for investors \u2013 I think \u2013 looking for that student market, Anna.
\nAnna:<\/strong>\u00a0 Certainly. There\u2019s already a really big student market in Adelaide. Adelaide University already has a very good medical sector and business sector as well. But, this is only going to ramp it up to a point where it should be one of the leading courses and leading universities in the world if they have access to facilities and the training and research the hospital can provide.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Not everything is rosy, though, in the South Australian state. You mentioned \u2013 and I want you to explain to me what it is \u2013 the zombie apocalypse.
\nAnna:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes. That\u2019s a term that floats around our office. The team call parts of Adelaide \u2013 and there are also a few little pockets in Melbourne that do get called, in a jovial way, the zombie apocalypse. It\u2019s areas where not only do you not want to invest but you walk down the street and you want to hold your handbag a bit tighter and you lock the doors on the car. There\u2019s a real low socio-economic demographic.
\nSo, whilst you might have a joke about that and say it\u2019s an area that you want to be careful walking down the street, there\u2019s a reality there for investors. We see that around areas in Adelaide around Elizabeth, where the old Holden plant has closed down and that sort of thing, where the demographic puts you in a position as an investor where you\u2019re going to have real problems with tenant selection.
\nThere are a lot of applications we see go through where tenants don\u2019t have jobs, where tenants are on government benefits, where there\u2019s rental arrears, where there\u2019s previous property damage. This is the kind of thing that we don\u2019t want our investors to have to worry about, so we do tend to avoid those markets where we see that being really prevalent.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Of course, Adelaide is not the only market like that. Can we move across to Melbourne and Victoria? A bit of concern there about an over-supply of units. Anna?
\nAnna:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes, it sure is. That\u2019s not a new story; that\u2019s been going on for eight or nine years now. I remember one of my team members, Gareth, used to work in Melbourne as a valuer for a number of years about eight or nine years ago and even back then, they were saying, \u201cThe supply will get picked up. It will be all right. It\u2019ll get absorbed.\u201d And you know what? We\u2019re still having that conversation now eight years down the track.
\nThe problem is they\u2019re still building them, and they\u2019re still building inappropriate unit supply. They\u2019re building too many one-bedroom, two-bedroom units when you\u2019re starting to see the emerging demographic being families of four and things like that. It\u2019s just not catering to what the market needs, and there\u2019s just too much of it.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes. The established housing market or even the secondhand housing market is looking pretty good, though, in Victoria.
\nAnna:<\/strong>\u00a0 It certainly is, and it\u2019s notably been one of the best performers over the last 12 months. Melbourne has got a lot going for it at the moment. It\u2019s already performing really strongly. It\u2019s seeing some of the strongest migration, and it\u2019s predicted to see \u2013 coming out of the most recent QBE report \u2013some of the strongest migration into the next year or two, as well. These all fare well for what\u2019s happening in the property market.
\nThe challenge for investors there \u2013 and buyers trying to buy their own home \u2013 is you\u2019ve missed a lot of that growth. So, buying into Melbourne metro right now, prices are high, competition is high, rental yields are very low \u2013 some of the lowest yields in the country, down around 3% is what we typically see as a gross rental yield, which is quite low. That puts you in a position where you\u2019re paying a lot to buy and you\u2019re not getting a big return, so your holding costs and your shortfall can be quite crippling.
\nYou need to push out of that city area a little bit and look at areas like Geelong and down around Frankston, Southeast Melbourne, where it\u2019s still a major commercial hub and there\u2019s been a lot of infrastructure spending in years gone by as well, and it\u2019s just starting for that little uptick from people being pushed out of the city areas because they\u2019re being pushed out.
\nKevin:\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0Anna Porter is my guest. Anna is the principal of Suburbanite, giving us a really good overview of the Australian property as we head into 2018.
\nLet\u2019s have a look at Sydney or New South Wales. You\u2019re suggesting that maybe the time is over for the Sydney market and we should be looking at some of the regional areas, Anna?
\nAnna:<\/strong>\u00a0 Most certainly. The time is over. What we\u2019re seeing in Sydney\u2026 We\u2019ve had double-digit growth year on year on year, which is what happens in a property boom. And don\u2019t get me wrong, when Sydney is performing, it is a market leader. But now, in the last month, in the last quarter, we\u2019re seeing negative growth trends coming through in really good areas, inner west to eastern suburbs. When we see that tipping point, unaffordability has kicked in, rental yields are all-time low, and negative growth is starting to filter through, the year ahead we\u2019re seeing Sydney has got some real pain to push through.
\nSo, if you want to be an investor in New South Wales, then my suggestion would be is get out of New South Wales if you\u2019re investing. Don\u2019t be stuck to the area just because you live there or like it. But if you must be in New South Wales, you probably want to head down as far as Goulburn, because even Wollongong, Newcastle, Central Coast, that\u2019s already been there and done that. We were buying houses in Dapto two years ago for $300,000 and they\u2019re now selling for $600,000.
\nYou\u2019ve missed that boat, but you can replicate that opportunity interstate, though if you do want to stay in New South Wales, you do need to be out of those city areas because it\u2019s done and dusted.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Staying in New South Wales for a moment, are there any good opportunities coming on out around Badgerys Creek with the airport?
\nAnna:<\/strong>\u00a0That\u2019s a great question, and I must say it\u2019s a question I get probably on a weekly basis: \u201cShould I be investing where the airport is going?\u201d Look, it\u2019s a very speculative approach to investing. Do you know where the flight paths are going to be? Do you know where the industrial areas are going to be, where the main roads are going to be?
\nBack in the day when people were buying out around the M7 and the M5 before it was built, they could have bought a great little plot of land at the time that was in a nice little area, and suddenly they have an M7 on their doorstep because they didn\u2019t know where the infrastructure was going to go. You\u2019re at risk of that at Badgerys Creek. You don\u2019t know if you\u2019re going to be under a major flight path. So, it\u2019s speculative.
\nMy best advice is if you want to leverage the opportunity of the Badgerys Creek infrastructure, go into the major commercial hubs around it that we already know how they look and feel and they will benefit from it. So, Parramatta, Liverpool are your real go-tos to leverage that without putting yourself in a speculative position.
\nBut, remember, it\u2019s still a long way off. You\u2019re not going to buy there today and your property is going to perform in the next two years while everything else is going down. That market cycle and market timing will overrule it. You are setting yourself up for the next boom, which is still six, seven, or eight years away. Be mindful it\u2019s a long-term view.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Let\u2019s round this report out with a quick look at the Brisbane market. You made a very strong statement about if you own an investment unit in Brisbane, your advice is to get out, to sell up now.
\nAnna:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes. If you own a unit in Brisbane and you can get out without losing money, I would suggest you very, very seriously consider it. It\u2019s going to be a blood bath. It\u2019s reminiscent of what we just spoke about with Melbourne over the last decade.
\nToo many units have been built. Too many units are being build, and a lot of them are being purchased by interstate investors who have has not enough knowledge of that market and have either paid too much, have been conned by a spruiker into paying overs and not being able to get tenants, buying off the plan.
\nWe\u2019ve spoken to some of the credit people in it, some of the big lenders, and they\u2019re saying they\u2019re knocking back finance on these properties again and again and again because they\u2019re approaching settlement, getting close to settlement, 90 days out when finance comes together on the off-the-plan purchase, and the value isn\u2019t there. They\u2019re valuing up $50,000 and $100,000 under what people paid a year or two ago.
\nAnd then we\u2019re seeing people who are managing to scrape their way through settlement by finding additional funds, they\u2019re looking to sell it, and the agents are telling them they will lose $50,000 or $100,000. We\u2019re seeing people doing things like offering free iPads to get tenants because the property has been vacant for four or five months.
\nSo, if you\u2019re in a position where you can get out without getting scathed too much, I would suggest you do it. If you\u2019re in a position where you\u2019ve already taken that big loss, you\u2019re going to have to look at what your options are because it\u2019s only going to get worse.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Just before I let you go, could I just get a comment from you about the Gold Cost, maybe even the Sunshine Coast, but the Gold Coast particularly with the Games coming up this year?
\nAnna:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes, I do want to be clear that it\u2019s not just all negative news for Brisbane; there is some great stuff happening. The Games are on the agenda, and we\u2019ve seen the Gold Coast market performing nice and consistently in the lead-up to that.
\nThen couple that with the Queen\u2019s Wharf project, which is a major multi-billion dollar project coming to Brisbane as well that\u2019s going to be rolling out over the next few years. There are thousands and thousands of jobs coming through both of these projects, so this is just the start of the good news story for Brisbane.
\nIf you don\u2019t own a unit\u2026 It\u2019s a bit of the same story on the Gold Coast; the unit market is quite oversupplied, but if you\u2019re in a house, townhouse, villa, something that\u2019s not in that unit sector, it\u2019s just the start of a good news story. So, don\u2019t be too disillusioned by that unit market because there\u2019s a lot of good stuff to come over the next three to five years in Brisbane.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Always good talking to you, Anna Porter. Anna is the principal of Suburbanite. Anna, thank you so much for your time.
\nAnna:<\/strong>\u00a0 You are more than welcome. Have a great day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Let\u2019s kick the year off with a look at what and where you should be buying property in 2018. What markets are hot? What markets are not? What should you avoid? Former valuer, author, property market commentator and principal of Suburbanite, Anna Porter sets out…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":19974,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34,10,11,13,36,22,25,27],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-19973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-research-topic","category-sponsored-channels","category-trends-topic","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nA valuer looks ahead at 2018 \u2013 Anna Porter - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/a-valuer-looks-ahead-at-2018-anna-porter\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A valuer looks ahead at 2018 \u2013 Anna Porter - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Let\u2019s kick the year off with a look at what and where you should be buying property in 2018. 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