{"id":19832,"date":"2017-12-21T01:00:44","date_gmt":"2017-12-20T14:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=19832"},"modified":"2017-12-21T01:00:44","modified_gmt":"2017-12-20T14:00:44","slug":"the-bitcoin-juggernaut-graham-cook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/the-bitcoin-juggernaut-graham-cook\/","title":{"rendered":"The Bitcoin juggernaut – Graham Cook"},"content":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s been a lot of talk about Bitcoin and its increased value in such a short time.\u00a0\u00a0 You might be a bit like me and wish you had jumped on the bandwagon a little while ago with the value that it is now.\u00a0\u00a0 But is it such a good investment overall?\u00a0 Graham Cook<\/strong>, Insights Manager for Finder, says it\u2019s not really a foolish investment.
\nTranscript:<\/strong>
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 There\u2019s been a lot of talk about Bitcoin, watching its value. I guess you\u2019re probably a bit like me and wish you had jumped on that bandwagon a little while ago with the value that it is now, but is it such a good investment overall?
\nGraham Cook, who is the Insights Manager for Finder, joins me, and he says that it\u2019s not really a foolish investment.
\nGood day, Graham.
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 Good day, Kevin. How are you doing?
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Good, thank you. Wouldn\u2019t you have loved\u2026 Maybe you did get on Bitcoin. Did you?
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 I tell you; I actually ghost-wrote a blog about Bitcoin about a year ago when it was about $2000 and was talking about how great it would have been to be on the gravy train at that point. And now it\u2019s $11,000 U.S. and God, I wish I had invested then.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Isn\u2019t it funny? We talk about this all the time and we say, \u201cWell, it\u2019s never too late.\u201d Is it too late, do you think?
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 The thing is nobody really knows. You can go onto the Fairfax and news media today and you can read completely conflicting articles about whether or not it\u2019s a good idea to get involved in Bitcoin.
\nThe price has been on an absolute wild ride this year. We\u2019ve seen it peak at $10,000 and then possibly predictably drop a little bit as it hit that ceiling \u2013 that arbitrary ceiling, really \u2013 and then start to bounce back since then.
\nThe thing is whether this is a bubble or whether this isn\u2019t a bubble\u2026 It definitely looks like a bubble, but nobody knows when that bubble is going to burst. Is it going to be at $15,000 U.S.? Is it going to be at $250,000? It\u2019s all wait and see at this point.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 It\u2019s a bit of a barometer, isn\u2019t it? When you see it come off, maybe people are now saying it\u2019s peaked; it\u2019s not going to go any further, they wait and they see that it doesn\u2019t fall, so they jump back in and it increases again in price. You could almost watch it like a barometer.
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes. There\u2019s an element of psychology involved with these things, as well. The value it\u2019s increased at is faster than, I think, any commodity we\u2019ve seen. It has a Gold Rush fever almost. You\u2019re seeing the grandparent investors getting involved now and everything. Whether this will end up being a party for everybody involved or whether there are going to be tears at the end of this road, we don\u2019t really know.
\nBut we did ask economists in our monthly REA survey\u2026 So this is leading economists in Australia; it\u2019s the biggest survey of its kind. We asked them if they think getting involved in Bitcoin is a foolish investment, and 80% came back and said they don\u2019t think so.
\nI was expecting it to be a bit more disapproval. If the economists are on board, then maybe it is a wise investment.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Okay, we\u2019ll keep any eye on that one. A couple of other things I wanted to talk to you about, too, Graham, if I may. One is the royal commission into the banks. What\u2019s your feeling about all of that?
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 The thing is this has been bubbling for quite a while. It\u2019s three or four years now that people have been asking for royal commission. The banks have been saying we don\u2019t need a royal commission. The government has been saying we don\u2019t need a royal commission. The opposition has been saying we do. But it\u2019s been going on for so long, it was almost inevitable at this stage.
\nWhat triggered it in the end was all four banks coming and saying, \u201cOkay, let\u2019s have this commission. Let\u2019s kill this uncertainty in the market and this doubt against the banks.\u201d They want to clear the air.
\nPotentially, by the fact that they, themselves, have asked for it, it seems that the banks, anyway, don\u2019t think there are too many skeletons in the closet that could be uncovered by the inquiry over the next year, but of course, time will tell.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Of course, it\u2019s also the fact that they get a little bit more control about what the commission will cover, as well.
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes, exactly, and they\u2019ll have the government running it more closely than if it had been driven by opposition parties. It\u2019s also going to be a relatively short investigation; it\u2019s reporting back in a year\u2019s time. But once you start to open those Pandora\u2019s boxes, who knows what\u2019s inside?
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Do you think it\u2019s going to have any impact at all on what the RBA may do over the next, say, three or four months?
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 I don\u2019t know if the RBA is going to be doing an awful lot. That actually leads into a question about interest rates. This is another one that we\u2019re asking our economists every month. We\u2019ve seen no movement at all now in the RBA cash rate or well over a year. I think it\u2019s actually 16 months in a row. I tell you; it\u2019s been getting quite difficult to write about the cash rate every month when it hasn\u2019t been doing anything; it\u2019s just been sitting there.
\nBut the economists are now saying they\u2019re not expecting another rate movement until at least the third quarter of next year. Still no movement in January, so we\u2019re talking six months from then of stagnant cash rate, and then potentially a movement after that.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Graham, on the tail end of that, do you think that borrowers should now be locking in their interest rates with the bank?
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 Now is definitely a good time to look at locking them in. The thing is in this low-interest world, the only way, really, the cash rate could potentially go is up. The question is when that happens, but it\u2019s definitely heading in that direction.
\nYou could have three or four months you can wait before you lock in your fixed rate, but we\u2019re definitely look at rates moving up towards the second half of next year, so it would be a good time to look at locking in your rates around now.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 What are the trends like for 2018? What\u2019s going to be happening as we\u2019re entering a brand-new property investment year? What\u2019s the inside running? What are they saying about next year? What\u2019s likely to be happening?
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 There are three main trends that are being signaled by economists for 2018 that we could see from the survey of 40 or so that we conducted this month.
\nThe first thing is we\u2019re still going to see growth in the capital cities but we\u2019re going to see slower growth. We\u2019re going to see single-digit growth, definitely in Sydney and potentially, across the other capital cities \u2013 with some surprising cities that they\u2019re picking as exhibiting the highest growth next year. Hobart is one that came out across the board that\u2019s going to be a good investment.
\nSo, continuing increasing property prices in houses \u2013 slower than previously, though. But where it\u2019s really going to change is in terms of apartments. We\u2019ve seen a lot of economists come out and say that the over-supply of apartments, the potential glut of apartments that\u2019s about to hit the market could lead to a softening of unit prices next year. I actually saw one economist refer to \u201cthe collapse of the apartment market,\u201d so price is definitely going to be more volatile there.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Just on that point, before we go any further, Graham, are they highlighting any particular cities, or was that just a general statement?
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 Melbourne was the one that came up most regularly in terms of cities, and Sydney as well. But definitely, there are a lot of cranes across the Melbourne skyline. There are a lot of apartments going to come onto the market there.
\nWe\u2019re also seeing potentially a sign of an issue with apartments in Sydney, for example. Some developers are now offering discounts of $50,000 for first-home buyers trying to buy units in areas that have a high concentration of units. So, there could be a potential sign that they\u2019re starting to sell those units. If you\u2019re going to invest in apartments, definitely it\u2019s good to be cautious in this coming year.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 What a lot of people have lost sight of, too, is the fact that that vacancy tax is about to click into play in Victoria as of January 1, and some people are saying that it could bring as many as 20,000 extra units onto the market in the Melbourne market alone.
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 Which again will be pushing prices down and will definitely make it a volatile investment. If you\u2019re going to invest in property, keep it towards the inner parts of the city and keep it in houses.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Okay, and some of the other tips that are coming from these economists?
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 Aside from slow growth and apartment issues, the third one that came through was something we\u2019re calling renovesting. With the property ladder becoming increasingly difficult to climb, we\u2019re expecting to see an increased number of Australians next year trying to increase the value of their property through actually renovating and getting new kitchens and new bathrooms and new bedrooms and stuff.
\nThat\u2019s been cited by a handful of economists and something we\u2019ve seen people mention a little bit in our consumer survey as well, so we expect that renovesting to be a bigger trend in 2018.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 What\u2019s involved in renovesting?
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 Literally, you have some cash, you\u2019re trying to spend it somewhere, you can\u2019t move up the property ladder, so you decide to go for the new kitchen, you decide to get the deck laid outside.
\nThese small changes to the appearance of a house can actually make quite a big difference to what the house will make on the end, especially if it goes to auction. It\u2019s one way that we\u2019re increasingly going to see Australians trying to add value to their homes.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 It\u2019s a bit \u201cImprove rather than move,\u201d isn\u2019t it?
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 \u201cImprove rather than move.\u201d That\u2019s a good phrase. I\u2019m going to use that.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 You\u2019re welcome to use that. I won\u2019t charge you for that. There is a program on television that springs to mind, Love It or List It<\/em>. I find it\u2019s intriguing to watch what happens with someone when they believe that they want to make a move and then someone comes in and renovates the house or improves it, and they fall back in love with it, and most times, they\u2019ll elect to stay as opposed to moving.
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes. Often, it\u2019s surprising what a lick of paint can do in terms of changing your environment \u2013 definitely a trend we expect to see more of in the future.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Indeed. Graham Cook who is the Insights Manager for Finder.com.au, my guest. Thanks for your time, Graham.
\nGraham:<\/strong>\u00a0 Thank you, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s been a lot of talk about Bitcoin and its increased value in such a short time.\u00a0\u00a0 You might be a bit like me and wish you had jumped on the bandwagon a little while ago with the value that it is now.\u00a0\u00a0 But is…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":19833,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34,10,11,13,22,25,27],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-19832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-research-topic","category-sponsored-channels","category-trends-topic","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Bitcoin juggernaut - Graham Cook - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/the-bitcoin-juggernaut-graham-cook\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Bitcoin juggernaut - 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