{"id":19787,"date":"2017-12-14T01:00:58","date_gmt":"2017-12-13T14:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=19787"},"modified":"2017-12-14T01:00:58","modified_gmt":"2017-12-13T14:00:58","slug":"how-to-accurately-measure-the-market-louis-christopher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/how-to-accurately-measure-the-market-louis-christopher\/","title":{"rendered":"How to accurately \u2018measure\u2019 the market \u2013 Louis Christopher"},"content":{"rendered":"

Louis Christopher<\/strong> gives us an insight as to how he measures the market.\u00a0 He has noticed a decline in vacancies in some areas.\u00a0 He talks about what this means and looks at individual markets and what he is watching closely.
\nTranscript:<\/strong>
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 As we track the market, a couple of indicators for us: those areas that are distressed around Australia and also vacancy rates. No one measures both of those better than Louis Christopher from SQM Research, who joins me.
\nGood day, Louis.
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Hello, Kevin. Good to be here.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Thank you, mate. I know you always keep a very close eye on these two indicators. Let\u2019s firstly talk about vacancy rates, because your recent report indicates that there might have been a bit of a change around Australia.
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 That\u2019s right. Our most recent release, which was covering October, recorded a slight decline in vacancies nationwide, from 2.2% to 2.1%, representing some 67,700 vacancies nationwide.
\nNow, we did record some rather surprising results for some cities. Perth, for example, recorded a fairly steep fall, falling from 4.5% in September down to 4.1%. Now, 4.1% sounds elevated and it is elevated, but it\u2019s a direction that we\u2019re watching here for Perth. This time last year, the vacancy rate was 4.9%, and we\u2019re clearly now recording a down trend in vacancies for that city indicating that we think the bottom is now in for the downturn that\u2019s been occurring in Perth over the last few years.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Could you indicate for me how many properties we\u2019re talking about there in that drop in Perth?
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 In September, there were 9700 properties vacant, and now we have 8800 properties, so basically, a fall of 900 properties.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 There are still a lot of properties vacant \u2013 aren\u2019t there \u2013 in that market?
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes, there is, no question about it. It\u2019s still a tenants\u2019 market. To give it some perspective, Melbourne, which is considerably bigger than Perth, has currently 9300 vacancies. Yes, it\u2019s still a lot of stock for Perth, but the point being that it\u2019s in a down trend and that\u2019s what, as a research house, we like to follow very closely.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 What does that number in Melbourne represent in a percentage term?
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Melbourne\u2019s vacancy rate also fell during the month. It\u2019s now 1.8%. In Brisbane, we had a number of 3%, and that represents about 10,700 properties vacant. That was down from 3.2% recorded in September, so we\u2019re also starting to record a slight trend in Brisbane vacancies, as well.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Increase or decrease?
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Decrease.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Tell me once again in percentage terms, where do you measure the market between being in favor of landlords and being in favor of tenants? What\u2019s the vacancy rate?
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 We think the equilibrium is circa between 2% to 3%. Generally, when you see over 3%, it\u2019s favoring tenants. When you see it under 2%, it\u2019s favoring landlords. But I stress that it\u2019s the relative direction that\u2019s important here.
\nFor example, back in 2009, Canberra had a vacancy rate of just 0.5%. What happened after that in 2010 and 2011 was that the vacancy rate in Canberra rose to 2%, and we actually recorded a decline in rents during that period. So, 2% on its own sounds like it\u2019s a landlord\u2019s market, but it was the fact that it went up from 0.5% is what really mattered there.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Did all of the markets around Australia have a decline in the number of vacancies?
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Yes, they did, all capital cities did. The city recording the highest vacancy rate is actually Hobart, which has reached a new record low of just 0.3%, which is just 75 properties available for rent or vacant in Hobart. Now, Hobart is a small city, of course, for those who know it. But even so, just 75 properties vacant is very tight indeed.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Many of the commentators we talk to are continually buoyed by what\u2019s happening in Hobart in particular, and those figures would tend to support that, I would have thought, in terms of price growth, Louis.
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 That is correct. When we look at the rental market in terms of rents have done in Hobart, significant increases over the past 12 months. Units are up 12.6% in terms of renting in Hobart for units, and houses are up by 5.4%, so very much a landlord\u2019s market in Hobart right now, and our forecast going forward is that that\u2019s likely to stay the same for at least 2018.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Can we turn the focus now and maybe have a look at the most distressed areas around the country in terms of properties on the market and those that are not selling, Louis?
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Sure. We regularly have a distressed properties report, where each and every month without fail there are at least about 10,000-odd properties in some type of distress form on there. So, that\u2019s mortgaging, possession, deceased estates, sellers moving up overseas, and so forth.
\nOne area that regally keeps coming up in our report is the Gold Coast. It\u2019s always been that way that the Gold Coast continues to record by far the largest number of distressed properties. I\u2019m not sure why that is. You might have a better idea for it, but it\u2019s always been the Gold Coast that\u2019s come up.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 How do you measure distress?
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 We measure distress by looking at key search terms, advertised search terms. So, \u201cmortgagee in possession\u201d as an example, \u201cdivorced sale,\u201d \u201cdeceased estate,\u201d \u201cbank-forced sale.\u201d There are about 20 different key search terms that we judge this by.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Let\u2019s have a look at the Gold Coast for a moment, a market that is the most distressed in Australia. How many properties are we talking about in terms of percentages, Louis?
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 On the Gold Coast, that would represent some 5% to 6% of the market overall. As mentioned, the Gold Coast has always been this way; it\u2019s not a new phenomenon. I want to be very clear here; we\u2019re not recording any sudden spike in defaults on the Gold Coast or anything like that.
\nI think the Gold Coast, it\u2019s safe to say, has always been a fairly transient type of place, and so I think with transient areas, you tend to see this type of phenomena a little bit more. Ever since we put this report together in 2009, the Gold Coast has always been right up there.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 In the most recent release that you put out on distressed properties, are there any areas around Australia that have spiked that you\u2019ve noticed?
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 We are coming across more Sydney properties that are increasingly on the radar, sellers having to discount because they had too big an expectation and suddenly, they have to move really quick.
\nWe\u2019re seeing a little bit more in Sydney. We\u2019ve had a few in the Brisbane CBD area, being apartments. These developer bargains are definitely starting to come through now, which is good for buyers who do their research. They\u2019re probably the main areas we have had over the last few years. A few in Perth as well, just with the mining downturn there, as you may well expect. But that\u2019s been it.
\nWe rarely see any in Melbourne, as an example. You just rarely see it in Melbourne at all. Surprisingly enough, when you look at regional areas, agriculture-based towns, you don\u2019t see too many of them at this point in time, either.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 A lot of that\u2019s to do with privacy, in some cases, too.
\nLouis, can I ask you about apartments versus houses in terms of the number of distressed properties you\u2019re seeing? Can you say it\u2019s predominantly apartments?
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 I think we can say it\u2019s been predominantly apartments. That may well be because of the whole issue of the Gold Coast. When I look at the Gold Coast itself, it would be running 70\/30 in favor of apartments in terms of a ratio. So yes, more often than not, it\u2019s apartment stock that we see that\u2019s under some type of distress condition.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 Louis, the distressed properties, is that available as a report from your website?
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 That\u2019s right. It\u2019s actually a login. You get access to a program and a database where you can sort the data by geography. And we do it fairly cheaply as well. I think we offer a subscription at $29.95 a subscription, if I recall.
\nKevin:<\/strong>\u00a0 It\u2019s great information for anyone looking to buy below-market or even off-market properties, so it\u2019s really good advice. Louis Christopher there from SQM Research. The website is SQMResearch.com.au.
\nLouis, thanks for your time. Great talking to you, mate.
\nLouis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Good to be here, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Louis Christopher gives us an insight as to how he measures the market.\u00a0 He has noticed a decline in vacancies in some areas.\u00a0 He talks about what this means and looks at individual markets and what he is watching closely. Transcript: Kevin:\u00a0 As we track…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":19788,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,10,11,13,36,22,23,25,27],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-19787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buying-a-property-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-research-topic","category-selling-a-property-topic","category-sponsored-channels","category-trends-topic","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nHow to accurately \u2018measure\u2019 the market \u2013 Louis Christopher - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/how-to-accurately-measure-the-market-louis-christopher\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How to accurately \u2018measure\u2019 the market \u2013 Louis Christopher - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Louis Christopher gives us an insight as to how he measures the market.\u00a0 He has noticed a decline in vacancies in some areas.\u00a0 He talks about what this means and looks at individual markets and what he is watching closely. 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