{"id":19730,"date":"2017-12-10T01:00:31","date_gmt":"2017-12-09T14:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=19730"},"modified":"2017-12-10T01:00:31","modified_gmt":"2017-12-09T14:00:31","slug":"20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\/","title":{"rendered":"20,000 units to flood Melbourne \u2013 Simon Pressley"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Up to 20,000 extra Melbourne apartments that are currently sitting vacant, could hit the market within a few months. Whether the owners respond to the new &#8216;vacancy tax&#8217; starting 1 January 2018 by adding these properties to Melbourne&#8217;s rental stock or resale stock, either way there&#8217;s a huge over-supply that&#8217;s about to swamp Australia&#8217;s second biggest city.\u00a0 <strong>Simon Pressley<\/strong>, Head of Property Market Research at Propertyology discuss the likely impact on the market.<br \/>\n<strong>Transcript:<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>If you are an investor in Melbourne, you\u2019re probably not going to like what we have to say, because apparently, 20,000 extra Melbourne apartments currently siting vacant could hit the market within the next few months. Why? What\u2019s happening? What\u2019s behind it? Joining me to talk about it, Simon Pressley from Propertyology.<br \/>\nSimon, what\u2019s behind this? I can imagine 20,000 extra units in Melbourne is going to put a bit of a dent in the market.<br \/>\n<strong>Simon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>That\u2019s a large number. That\u2019s a Victorian state government figure. What it is, Kevin, is the Victorian state government feel there\u2019s a need for them to intervene and increase supply in the Melbourne property market.<br \/>\nOn their estimates based on the lack of water being used in properties, they calculate there are about 20,000 dwellings in Melbourne that are sitting vacant permanently, and they\u2019re trying to force those owners to make it part of the rental pool.<br \/>\nHow they\u2019re going to do that is they will charge property owners a vacancy tax. For a typical property, let\u2019s say it\u2019s worth $500,000, the tax will be $5000 per annum if that property is not occupied for six months or more in each calendar year. That\u2019s a lot of money.<br \/>\nNow, there may be some existing property investors who elect to just pay the freight, suck it up and pay it each year and still keep it empty, but I\u2019d suggest that for $5000+, a lot will either sell or they will do what the government wants and make it part of the rental pool. Either way, that\u2019s a lot of properties to hit the market.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin: \u00a0<\/strong>It\u2019s a bit like wealth tax, really, isn\u2019t it? If you\u2019re an investor and you have an investment unit, whether you leave it vacant or you put a tenant in it shouldn\u2019t be anyone\u2019s concern, to be quite frank. I really take exception to this.<br \/>\nWhat about someone who\u2019s got a holiday unit and they don\u2019t want to let someone else in, they don\u2019t want to tenant it out; they want to use it whenever they want. This is really just a penalty on them, isn\u2019t it?<br \/>\n<strong>Simon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>There are a few exceptions, and I\u2019m still digesting the fine print. This legislation has just come out. But a holiday home, you need to prove to the state government that you\u2019ve occupied it yourself for four weeks or more, so there\u2019s an exception there. Another exception is if you own a second property because you work and you want to live in effectively two homes, you need to prove that you\u2019ve lived in this property for 140 days or more.<br \/>\nThat might cover some of those 20,000 properties, but a large percentage of them, people \u2013 for reasons known only to them \u2013 they want to leave empty. Now, I\u2019d suggest that that\u2019s their right to do what they want. They paid all that money for an asset, they paid extra stamp duty in the first instance. If they don\u2019t want to collect an income, so be it.<br \/>\nThis is concerning for every property investor in Melbourne, in my opinion. It\u2019s not just the $5000 that those who currently have an empty property will feel the pinch. Let\u2019s make up a number, Kevin. If we said 15,000 out of 20,000 over the next few months hit the Melbourne rental market, all those existing property owners who are collecting rent, they have 15,000 extra properties that they\u2019re competing against.<br \/>\nWhat\u2019s that going to do to rent on their property? What\u2019s that going to do to their own personal confidence? How might that affect their own mood, their behavior? That has a knock-on effect to retail trade, that has a knock-on effect to lots of properties being sold, a lack of confidence in the market, whether you\u2019re an owner-occupier or an investor.<br \/>\nI\u2019m getting increasingly concerned not just in Melbourne, Kevin, but too much government intervention. When we fiddle with market forces\u2026 If you think of property markets, we\u2019ve had diluting negative gearing benefits, depreciation deductions in the last 12 months. That\u2019s a federal government initiative. We\u2019ve had APRA come in and make it harder for people to borrow money. We\u2019ve had APRA also slug investors up to 1% extra in interest rates. And now we have a particular state government targeting other investors, as well.<br \/>\nI think it\u2019s going to affect more than the owners of those vacant properties. Eventually, people are going to say \u201cWe\u2019ve had enough,\u201d and it\u2019s going to significantly affect the mood of the whole population, not just the owners of the vacant properties.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Of course, we talk about Melbourne, Melbourne is a fairly big market. Have you got any indication about the spread of those 20,000 units? Are they all inner-city Melbourne?<br \/>\n<strong>Simon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>I think it was originally sold in parliament, Kevin, that it was the inner-city apartments, but I\u2019ve been on the state government website today, they\u2019ve named the local government authorities that are listed, and there was 16 of them in total. Greater Melbourne is made up of 31 city councils, so half of those are caught up in this legislation.<br \/>\nWhat we\u2019ve done is we\u2019ve looked at the suburbs in the outer city councils that are captured. North of Melbourne, we\u2019re talking as far out as 15 kilometers from the post office, the eastern suburbs as far out as 35 kilometers. So, we\u2019re talking most of Melbourne is going to be affected by this.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>This is not mooted legislation; this has actually been enacted. When does it start?<br \/>\n<strong>Simon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>It comes into effect as of January 1, 2018, but it\u2019s partly back-dated. My interpretation of what I\u2019ve read on the state government website this morning is that the legislation was moved in parliament in May, so what they\u2019re saying is to all existing property owners in Melbourne, \u201cWe\u2019re going to give you a free kick, the first four months of 2017, even if it was empty, we\u2019re going to assume that you had it occupied.\u201d From May through December 2017 this calendar year, they need to have it occupied physically for an extra two months to make it a total of six months in this calendar year. If they\u2019re a day short of six months, they\u2019re paying the freight. They\u2019ll be paying the example I used earlier, the $5000. And that\u2019s how it\u2019s going to be calculated every year.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Wow. And, of course, there\u2019s a bit of a knock-on effect here, too. It sends a very sobering message to developers, doesn\u2019t it? If there\u2019s going to be that much stock possibly coming on the market, someone who\u2019s not out of the ground right now might say, \u201cWell, I might just mothball this for another year or two.\u201d<br \/>\n<strong>Simon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>That\u2019s exactly right, Kevin. Whenever governments intervene with market forces, invariably there are always unintended consequences. Now, this might take a couple of years before these unintended consequences are really realized, but you\u2019ve made a really good example of one of those.<br \/>\nIf a market gets saturated, think of all the future construction jobs that won\u2019t probably be created because the construction industry will say, \u201cWell, there\u2019s already too much built; why would we build anymore?\u201d Where will they go to get more jobs? When you have a damp property market, that also reduces demand for property-related jobs: real estate agents, property managers, conveyances, tradespeople.<br \/>\nThere are always going to be knock-on effects here, and let\u2019s not forget the state government coffers themselves. The single biggest revenue for any state government is stamp duty on property taxes. So, if we cause that much damage to consumer confidence and there are fewer property transactions in any authority, the state government will feel the pinch. And then there are the infrastructure projects and so on.<br \/>\nSo, there\u2019s going to be a knock-on effect from overregulation in the property sector.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>I appreciate your time, Simon. Thank you.<br \/>\n<strong>Simon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Thanks, Kevin. Let\u2019s hope no more state governments jump in and follow suit.<br \/>\n<strong>Kevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Exactly. Thanks, mate. Talk soon.<br \/>\n<strong>Simon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Bye-bye.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Up to 20,000 extra Melbourne apartments that are currently sitting vacant, could hit the market within a few months. Whether the owners respond to the new &#8216;vacancy tax&#8217; starting 1 January 2018 by adding these properties to Melbourne&#8217;s rental stock or resale stock, either way&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":19731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,11,13,36,22,25,27],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-19730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-research-topic","category-sponsored-channels","category-trends-topic","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>20,000 units to flood Melbourne \u2013 Simon Pressley - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"20,000 units to flood Melbourne \u2013 Simon Pressley - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Up to 20,000 extra Melbourne apartments that are currently sitting vacant, could hit the market within a few months. Whether the owners respond to the new &#8216;vacancy tax&#8217; starting 1 January 2018 by adding these properties to Melbourne&#8217;s rental stock or resale stock, either way...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-12-09T14:00:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"rolanrush\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"rolanrush\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"rolanrush\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/384a57ac9e52cb9bf19896cb15eaa52d\"},\"headline\":\"20,000 units to flood Melbourne \u2013 Simon Pressley\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-12-09T14:00:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1473,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"\",\"keywords\":[\"podcast\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Kevin Turner\",\"Kevin's Update\",\"Latest Stories\",\"Property Investment\",\"Research\",\"Sponsored Channels\",\"Trends\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/\",\"name\":\"20,000 units to flood Melbourne \u2013 Simon Pressley - Realty Talk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-12-09T14:00:31+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/384a57ac9e52cb9bf19896cb15eaa52d\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"\",\"contentUrl\":\"\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/20000-units-to-flood-melbourne-simon-pressley\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"20,000 units to flood Melbourne \u2013 Simon Pressley\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/\",\"name\":\"Realty Talk\",\"description\":\"Your Trusted Voice For Property Investing. 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