{"id":14730,"date":"2017-11-23T01:00:43","date_gmt":"2017-11-22T14:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=14730"},"modified":"2017-11-23T01:00:43","modified_gmt":"2017-11-22T14:00:43","slug":"our-first-look-at-2018-simon-pressley","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/our-first-look-at-2018-simon-pressley\/","title":{"rendered":"Our first look at 2018 \u2013 Simon Pressley"},"content":{"rendered":"

At this time of year, we always like to look back on the lessons from the year almost gone and try to predict what will happen in the year ahead with property prices. That\u2019s the mission we gave to Simon Pressley<\/strong> and we find out what he thinks today in the show.
\nTranscript:<\/strong>
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>It is always around this time of the year that we start to look back at the year that\u2019s just gone and look ahead towards what\u2019s going to happen in 2018. I\u2019m reminded of a conversation I had quite a long time ago with my next guest, who at that point tipped that Hobart was going to be the big winner. Everyone scoffed at him and said \u201cYou have to be kidding.\u201d Well, now everyone is saying Hobart is the big winner, but they probably just missed the boat. That\u2019s why I always enjoy talking to Simon Presley from Propertyology.
\nGood day, Simon.
\nSimon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Good day, Kevin.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>You were the first cab out of the rank, weren\u2019t you?
\nSimon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>We were. It was this time last year when we made the bold prediction that Hobart would be the best performing capital city in 2017, but it was actually earlier than that we started investing there. It was 2014, when it was flat and it was described as a basket case market, but we backed our analysis of it\u2019s an economy that\u2019s improving, and it\u2019s certainly done that well and truly \u2013 and continues to do that.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>It\u2019s been acknowledged in many sources that that\u2019s probably been one of the big winners of the year. Were there any other winners? And also, what were the losers of 2017?
\nSimon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Melbourne and Sydney, Kevin, had their fifth consecutive year of strong price growth \u2013 Melbourne 12% and Sydney 10%, so the tables were reversed there. There are still a few months of data left in this calendar year. Looks like Hobart is going to end the year with we\u2019d estimate 16% or 17% price growth for the calendar year. If it does that, it\u2019ll be the single best performing capital city market in 10 years.
\nAdelaide and Canberra both had solid years. I think that 4% to 8% growth per year, if it could be guaranteed that every year, we\u2019re not going to be complaining. So, they were solid. Brisbane was underwhelming at about 3%, and Perth and Darwin both had their third year of \u2013 albeit small \u2013 price declines.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>How did regional Australia perform?
\nSimon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Every year, there are always various regional cities that perform well, and 2017 was no exception. New South Wales had the bulk of them, on the back of the New South Wales state economy, but Newcastle 12% growth, Wollongong 15% \u2013 that\u2019s a fantastic year. Lower profile New South Wales locations: Maitland 6%, Bathurst 6%, Dubbo 5%, Orange, 4%. They\u2019re good years; they\u2019re better than four out of eight capital cities. Australia\u2019s tomato capital, Guyra in the northern inland, 16% growth, would you mind?
\nVictoria: Colac really showing Australia\u2019s agricultural and food processing economy doing well. Colac had 19.6% growth in the last 12 months.
\nQueensland: an underrated rural community called Goondiwindi had 20% price growth in the last 12 months. Of the bigger regional cities in Queensland, Gold Coast 7.8% and Sunshine Coast 5.7% beat the state\u2019s capital.
\nSouth Australia: Port Augusta had 13.2%. That\u2019s boom figures. Well done for Port Augusta in South Australia.
\nNothing in WA had positive growth, but Broome and Busselton \u2013 both lifestyle markets \u2013 were neutral, which was better than Perth\u2019s minus 4%.
\nAnd in Tasmania, Launceston, Burnie, and Devonport, as yet none of them have shown that they\u2019re benefiting from the improved Tasmanian economy but maybe they\u2019re locations to watch in future years.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>That turns us into the conversation now about next year, 2018. How do you reckon Sydney and Melbourne are going to go?
\nSimon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>I think here and now, Kevin, Sydney is already dead flat, and I think data over the next few months will support that. I really think it\u2019s just become out of reach. Property prices in Sydney combined with an increasing amount of negative press. All in all, I think Sydney will be flat in 2018, and it may well remain that way for several years, unless the Reserve Bank surprises us with some interest rate reductions.
\nMelbourne is solid at the minute, and we think it might remain that way for the first half of 2018, but it is showing signs of starting to cool on these APRA credit tightening policies. These APRA credit tightening policies are intended to really take the heat out of Sydney and Melbourne\u2019s market. We definitely think that will happen in 2018.
\nAlso in Melbourne, 2018 for us is always the year that will determine what sort of impacts the car manufacturing closures would have on that market. I reckon by the end of 2018, Melbourne will be flat.
\nBut five out of eight capital cities, we feel that the outlook for the next three years is better than what it was for the last three years. Adelaide and Brisbane have the potential to commence their growth cycle, more so than the likes of Darwin and Perth.
\nRegional Australia is really something that doesn\u2019t get spoken about, Kevin. I think people really need to cast their eyes on parts of regional Australia.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Yes, I tend to agree with you, mate. What about the capital cities? What do you reckon is going to be the best performing capital city in 2018?
\nSimon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Great question. How could I overlook that? Hobart has the potential\u2026 It\u2019s continuing to accelerate, the data we measure there. It has the potential to push through 20% price growth in the 2018 calendar year, but it\u2019s going to be mid-teens at the lowest, I think. And I think it\u2019s the only capital city that has the potential for double-digit price growth in 2018.
\nI think this time next year, Kevin, we\u2019ll be sitting saying, \u201cWow, Hobart was out on its own, and then there\u2019s a cluster of four or five cities that were potentially half the rate of growth of what Hobart has done.\u201d
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Take me back into the regions again. What do you think is going to happen in regional Australia in 2018?
\nSimon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Regional Australia, the industries that really support the economy, mining has shown some sustained improvement, but that\u2019s not to say people should rush out and buy into mining towns; we certainly wouldn\u2019t. But there are a number of regional cities throughout Australia, Kevin, that play the role of a mini capital city that support more remote mining communities.
\nIn Victoria, Ballarat is showing some green shoots there. Central Queensland: Rockhampton, Townsville, Mackay, they\u2019re not going to boom immediately, but their outlook for the next three years is the best outlook it\u2019s probably had in a good decade.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Yes, because those areas had a pretty rough 2017, didn\u2019t they?
\nSimon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>A really rough time. But it\u2019s not just mining. It\u2019s agriculture. We keep hearing that term that Australia is Asia\u2019s food bowl \u2013 Asia\u2019s rising middle class. We\u2019re very bullish about the outlook for Australia\u2019s future for the agricultural sector.
\nAnd right throughout\u00a0<\/strong>regional Australia where there are communities that have a combination of some specific agricultural products combined with factories that process the raw materials into some kind of packaged goods \u2013 whether it\u2019s abattoirs or whether it\u2019s wine \u2013 this is where the jobs are, in the food factories. And already throughout Australia, there are regional locations that are doing that.
\nAnd tourism: we are in the middle of a tourism boom. There were 20 million people who visited Australia last year, and just China alone, tourism analysts are saying that they believe that Chinese visitors are going to increase threefold over the next five, six years.
\nWe\u2019re talking $37 billion in infrastructure projects for regional Australia that are tourism-related. So, that\u2019s regional airports expanding, that\u2019s new hotels, theme parks, sports stadiums, dozens of them scattered right throughout Australia. They\u2019re going to create jobs during construction, which is great for these regional cities, and when it\u2019s finished, it\u2019s going to attract more and more visitors, tourism trade. So, wonderful opportunities in regional Australia.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Simon, before I let you go, I\u2019m keen to get your opinion on the impact of the moves to regulate the market with taxes and rates. Are they having any sort of an impact on the market conditions? And are they likely to next year, do you think?
\nSimon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>They\u2019re definitely having an impact. We\u2019ve seen that impact right throughout 2017. Just the talk of it in the media every day has served its purpose. Not that we thought it was a good purpose, but it served what APRA intended, which was to curb people borrowing money for property.
\nBut it has not just affected fewer investment transactions; it has also dampened the mood of a lot of Australians, a lot of people who want to be first-home buyers or upsizers or downsizers who probably haven\u2019t done it just because of the negativity.
\nAPRA really missed the mark with that. It really should have been targeted at Sydney \u2013 that\u2019s what they were concerned about \u2013 but it was the broad brush right across Australia. There is talk that they might loosen that in 2018, so let\u2019s hope they do so.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Let\u2019s hope so. Just before I let you go, just one more comment, if I may. I\u2019m keen to hear from you about property prices, and we\u2019re talking here about regional areas and cap city areas. Do you think property prices in some of the regional areas being more affordable is impacting how we live and where we choose to live?
\nSimon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Absolutely, and will continue to do that. A combination of an aging population, so if, say for example, a baby boomer retires, they might have lived most of their life in a capital city but don\u2019t have the investment capital that they\u2019d like, a very tangible option is to sell the expensive family home in a capital city, move to a more affordable, regional location. Wonderful beaches up and down the coast and tree changes inland that people will move to.
\nThe younger generation are making themselves more mobile. They\u2019re more prepared to pay $350,000 for their first home and a nice lifestyle somewhere in regional Australia rather than end up with a one-bedroom cupboard in a capital city and not much of a lifestyle. I just think it\u2019s a sign of things to come for the next generation, really.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Always good talking to you. Simon Pressley from Propertyology. You can visit their site, of course, Propertyology.com.au. Simon, thanks for your time.
\nSimon:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Thank you, Kevin. Have a great day, mate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At this time of year, we always like to look back on the lessons from the year almost gone and try to predict what will happen in the year ahead with property prices. That\u2019s the mission we gave to Simon Pressley and we find out…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":14731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,34,10,11,13,36,22,25],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-14730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buying-a-property-topic","category-finance-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-research-topic","category-sponsored-channels","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nOur first look at 2018 \u2013 Simon Pressley - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/our-first-look-at-2018-simon-pressley\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Our first look at 2018 \u2013 Simon Pressley - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"At this time of year, we always like to look back on the lessons from the year almost gone and try to predict what will happen in the year ahead with property prices. 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