{"id":14692,"date":"2017-11-15T01:00:35","date_gmt":"2017-11-14T14:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=14692"},"modified":"2017-11-15T01:00:35","modified_gmt":"2017-11-14T14:00:35","slug":"john-mcgraths-tips-for-2018-john-mcgrath","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/john-mcgraths-tips-for-2018-john-mcgrath\/","title":{"rendered":"John McGraths tips for 2018 \u2013 John McGrath"},"content":{"rendered":"

John McGrath<\/strong> speaks to us about how he sees the Australian property market moving into 2018. What areas does he think will improve most?
\nTranscript:<\/strong>
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>This week, John McGrath released his annual McGrath Report, and John makes the point right at the outset that the most frequent question he\u2019s asked year after year is \u201cWhat is the market doing?\u201d And as he points out, there is no one market in Australia.
\nJohn, thank you very much for joining us. How are you?
\nJohn:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Good, Kevin. Yes, it\u2019s interesting, isn\u2019t it? Because everyone you speak to, many of them are experiencing different markets, and I think the report articulates the fact that if you had to break it into a couple of markets, one is Sydney and Melbourne that has seen very strong rises over the last five or six years. In fact, some areas have doubled values, but at least 50%.
\nAnd yet in other parts of the country \u2013 in South East Queensland, too, to a lesser degree, but in other parts of the country, there\u2019s been what I would call really minimal growth. I think that will change going forward.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>As you indicated, you still see the Australian property market as Sydney and Melbourne and the rest of the country. Is that becoming less acute? Is the rest of the country starting to catch up, do you think? Or will it?
\nJohn:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>It will. Not yet. We\u2019ve seen Sydney and Melbourne, right up until this interview, have been performing very strongly. We haven\u2019t seen much of a drop off. Sydney is starting to slow down a bit now, Melbourne got a little bit more strength to go. But I think it would be fair to say \u2013 certainly in my view, anyway \u2013 that both of those markets are very much towards or at their peak.
\nI think there are many other markets \u2013 South East Queensland \u2013 that are probably midway through. I think if you were looking at a percentage, I\u2019d say that South East Queensland might be 55% or 60% through, and Sydney and Melbourne are 95% to 100% through their cycle. So, I still think there\u2019s good growth up in the Queensland area, especially South East Queensland.
\nPerth is another area that I think has obviously been very hard hit through the mining issues, and that\u2019s been really down, but I think it\u2019ll catch up. All the markets will eventually catch up, but I think South East Queensland will be the stellar performer over the next three to five years.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Now, you\u2019re still sure there is no bubble. Why is that?
\nJohn:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>I\u2019ve heard it so many times, Kevin. I look at it, and every time there\u2019s a cycle rise and there\u2019s some strong growth in areas like Sydney and Melbourne and other parts of Australia, people say, \u201cOh, Sydney must be 20%, 30%, 40% overvalued.\u201d I think the reality is that Sydney and Melbourne are the New Yorks of Australia, and they\u2019re probably never going to be caught by the other cities.
\nI think there is a gap there, which is in my opinion too wide today, but there will always be a gap going forward. I just think the weight of money coming into the two big east coast cities will always have them ahead of the rest. But right now, the gap is as big as I\u2019ve ever seen in three decades of being in real estate, and I think that\u2019s not going to last.
\nSo, the question is are Sydney and Melbourne overvalued? I think they\u2019re not. I think they\u2019ve reached probably where they\u2019re going to reach for this cycle. We might see a very small correction in those markets of a few percent going forward over the next 6 to 12 months, but I actually think the issue is that the rest of Australia is probably undervalued.
\nI think it\u2019s more of a media headline, \u201cMarket overvalued.\u201d I\u2019m sure there are spreadsheets that say that compared with other times or other parts of the world, Sydney looks a little bit on the expensive side. But it\u2019s a big city that people want to live and invest in.
\nWe were just talking before we got on the interview about Asia. There are literally billions of people in that part of the world who are rapidly becoming very much the middle class and they\u2019re earning money they\u2019ve never earned before. They will all be looking to invest elsewhere, and they\u2019ll also be looking to migrate to great countries like Australia. So, I think our future in terms of property values is really strong.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>How are property prices impacting how we live and where we choose to live, John?
\nJohn:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Again, I\u2019ll refer to Sydney and Melbourne, which for a lot of people have become in certain parts unaffordable. It\u2019s not uncommon that in a new development in Sydney, a one-bedroom is going very close to $1 million, whereas as you would know, in South East Queensland \u2013 which is an equally beautiful part of the world \u2013 you can buy a nice house in many areas for $375,000 to $450,000. I think that from that aspect, we are finding a lot of people in Sydney and Melbourne are going to find it very hard to find a place.
\nAt the other end of the market, you have people who are probably in their 50s, 60s, 70s who wound up finding themselves in a home that\u2019s now very expensive, and perhaps they\u2019ve had it for years or even a generation or two. They thought it wasn\u2019t worth much, then they check with their local real estate agent, and they\u2019re saying, \u201cYou\u2019ll probably get $2.5 million\u201d for this house. I think those people are going to be saying, \u201cWell, for the next 10, 20, 30 years of our life, we might take that money and either look for a sea change or a tree change, or we might downscale here and invest elsewhere.\u201d
\nWe\u2019ve seen the numbers. As you know, Kevin, we\u2019ve seen strong migrationary numbers returning again, the strongest for many years. So I think it\u2019s a very healthy time.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>John, what sort of an impact are those moves to regulate the market with taxes and rates having on market conditions overall, do you think?
\nJohn:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>I\u2019m very anti the overseas levy that\u2019s been placed on buyers from overseas, only because I think that, one, we\u2019re now all living in a global city or a globalized economy, and I think that it\u2019s very dangerous to be saying to people outside of the immediate area or inside Australia, \u201cWe don\u2019t want your investment.\u201d
\nI think we should be encouraging other people to migrate and to invest into Australia \u2013 the right people in appropriate numbers. So, I think it\u2019s a very strange signal when state governments say, \u201cWell, if you want to come here, we\u2019ll let you, but you\u2019re going to have to pay a lot more stamp duty,\u201d for example.
\nWe\u2019ve already seen a big drop off in the southern states in terms of people overseas buying. I\u2019ve never felt the growth in the southern states values was a problem around demand; it was more of a problem about supply. We\u2019ve had an extreme housing shortage, so from that respect, I think it\u2019s dangerous, because Canada put the stop sign up and said, \u201cWe don\u2019t want anyone\u2019s money any more,\u201d and their real estate market really suffered fairly badly, and it hasn\u2019t recovered yet.
\nI just think this is a big country; with the appropriate development controls in place, I think we could continue to grow our cities in the right places and invite people from other parts of the world to come and participate.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>I\u2019m talking to John McGrath about the McGrath Report, which has just been released.
\nJohn, let\u2019s talk about developers for a minute. Are they being spooked by some of these restrictions and regulations that are being imposed on them?
\nJohn:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>In some instances and in some cities, they\u2019ve had a few very good years, but I think they were enjoying the fact that in addition to a strong local market, there was overseas interest. Sydney had a strong buying interest from China, which was very well documented, and a lot of that has dried up. I would say 75% or 80% of the overseas money looking to invest in Australia, if not move here, has dried up.
\nThere\u2019s no doubt when a developer buys a product, as long as they can get financing and as long as they have confidence there\u2019s an end user or an end buyer for the product, they\u2019ll go and develop. If they\u2019re concerned about building and they\u2019re not finding buyers at the end of the process, that\u2019s going to be an issue. So, it will no doubt take some of the wind out of the market by putting the stop sign up to overseas investors.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>John, before I let you go, your closing thoughts on the future of the property market? What do we need to do to make housing more affordable? Is that possible?
\nJohn:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>I think there are a few things \u2013 no doubt \u2013 with the affordability. The supply issue is the main one. So, we need to have good quality, complying developments processed far more quickly. In some instances, it still takes two years for developers to get complying developments approved and through the councils, both local and state. I think if that sped up, that\u2019ll certainly provide a lot more stock in the market.
\nI think with building materials, there are alternative styles of building happening, Kevin, and that should make things a little bit less costly. And the third one is infrastructure. There is good infrastructure happening throughout most parts of Australia, but I think there was a period certainly during the GFC where there was very little infrastructure, so that really put a bottleneck in many areas. Now, infrastructure, new roads, new hospitals, new employment opportunities will definitely open up some other opportunities for people to live in new areas, I think.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>John McGrath, thanks so much for your time, mate. Thank you.
\nJohn:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Thanks, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

John McGrath speaks to us about how he sees the Australian property market moving into 2018. What areas does he think will improve most? 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