{"id":14136,"date":"2017-10-01T01:00:14","date_gmt":"2017-09-30T15:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=14136"},"modified":"2017-10-01T01:00:14","modified_gmt":"2017-09-30T15:00:14","slug":"mortgage-stress-on-the-rise-elizabeth-tilley","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/mortgage-stress-on-the-rise-elizabeth-tilley\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage stress on the rise \u2013 Elizabeth Tilley"},"content":{"rendered":"

With so much talk about the price of power and what\u2019s happening with childcare and so on, it\u2019s no wonder that there are indications mortgage stress in Australia is probably at an absolute peak. The number of households in mortgage stress increased in August. That was according to a report released by Digital Finance Analytics, and the report was compiled for News Ltd.\u00a0 Real estate reporter for The Courier-Mail, Elizabeth Tilley<\/strong> gives the detail.
\nTranscript:<\/strong>
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>With so much talk about prices for power and what\u2019s happening with childcare and so on, it\u2019s no wonder that a report has been released that has indicated that mortgage stress \u2013 well, we\u2019ll talk about Queensland \u2013 in Australia is probably at an absolute peak. The number of households in mortgage stress increased in August. That was according to a report released by Digital Finance Analytics, and the report was compiled for\u00a0The Courier-Mail<\/em>.
\nJoining me now the senior real estate reporter for\u00a0The Courier-Mail<\/em>, Elizabeth Tilley.
\nElizabeth, thank you for your time. Did the outcome of the report come as any sort of a surprise to you?
\nElizabeth:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Not really, Kevin, because we have been monitoring this for a little while now. I\u2019m in contact with Martin North, the principal of Digital Finance Analytics, usually on a month-by-month basis, and things have been gradually getting worse for households for the last few years, really, and each month, it just seems to get worse and worse.
\nBut this month in particular, the August figures that this modeling has been done for, really they\u2019ve put it down to three main things. And that\u2019s higher power prices \u2013 which we know of course is the number one issue that households are dealing with at the moment \u2013 council rates, also another one that\u2019s gone up during that time, and childcare costs apparently also really started to bite during the month of August.
\nSo it was a particularly difficult month for households on top of the usual rising living costs they\u2019re facing, and household debt, and obviously mortgage. This modeling also shows that only a small jump in interest rates would push a lot more households into the risk of defaulting on their home loan.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Yes, it\u2019s a real problem for the Reserve Bank to think about, because interest rates are at an all-time low. I know they could go down a little bit further, but everyone\u2019s tipping that they will, in fact, increase at some stage. We\u2019ll talk about that in just a moment. But that\u2019s actually going to make the situation even worse, so it\u2019s really hard for them to make the kinds of decisions they need to make based on some of the reports that are coming out, Elizabeth.
\nElizabeth:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>It is. I\u2019d love to be a fly on the wall in their Board meetings and just see exactly what they\u2019re discussing over the table, because it\u2019s really a tough one, isn\u2019t it? They have to weigh up all the pressures that are happening out there, but then meanwhile, especially this time of year, spring, we have all the banks now coming out with all these discounts for home loans, which some analysts are saying is going to see a flood of more people into the market and taking advance of that.
\nYes, it\u2019s a very delicate balancing act. But household debt is their biggest concern, I think, and we hear about it quite often that that is the problem. It\u2019s too high, and there\u2019s just no financial buffer there for many households. So, it means that even just the tiniest added pressure can tip many of them over the edge and into stress, and that is a big concern.
\nAs you said, rates aren\u2019t expected to rise for a while yet, but when they do, I just don\u2019t know how people are going to be prepared for it. Many households are really going to feel the pain.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>The report from Digital Finance Analytics looked at it by postcode. It was quite interesting to see that the postcode they highlighted as being the worst was 4305, which is Toowoomba in Queensland. The average age in Toowoomba is extremely high, because we\u2019ve seen a number of people retire off properties and they go and buy a home with their retirement nest egg in Toowoomba.
\nI guess this really highlights the impact of some of these higher prices like council rates and power rates on the elderly, as well as the young, growing families, Elizabeth.
\nElizabeth:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Yes. I think you\u2019re right. I think they\u2019re definitely feeling it just as much. They\u2019re obviously living on their retirement savings, if they have much of that, and obviously their super funds are getting eaten into as well with not very high interest rates there.
\nYes, it\u2019s interesting the modeling finding that that postcode really would be severely affected if interest rates were to rise, and at the moment we are seeing a large number of households there being affected. About 30% of their households do have a mortgage at the moment, and they are feeling it the most.
\nDigital Finance Analytics is saying that that\u2019s partly because that area does have high unemployment. Of course, we\u2019re seeing stagnant wages growth particularly here in Queensland. House prices have seen a bit of a rise in that area in recent years.
\nAnd according to the Digital Finance Analytics, there are actually a lot of new mortgages that have been accumulated in the last few years, so that also could be attributing to the pressure that\u2019s being felt there, as well. And yes, a bit of a hangover maybe left from the mining boom, resources boom as well still there.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Yes. We talk about when people borrow to buy a property, they should build in some kind of a buffer and allow for increased rates, but it\u2019s bringing on a whole new idea about how that buffer should be structured \u2013 not only structuring an increase in rates but also an increase in some of these essential costs in the household, as well.
\nElizabeth, can I just ask you from a national perspective, did you have a feel for how many households are actually in financial stress across the nation due to increased mortgage payments?
\nElizabeth:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Across the nation, it\u2019s about 860,000 estimated to be in the mortgage stress, and that\u2019s up 40,000 from July. So, in one month, that\u2019s a big increase in households to be under mortgage stress. And more than 20,000 of those are in severe stress. That\u2019s about 26.4%, so that\u2019s now over a quarter of households nationally that are suffering from mortgage stress.
\nAnd there are also about 46,000 households at risk of default in the next 12 months. Interestingly, that\u2019s down a little bit from July \u2013 down 7000, in fact \u2013 and that\u2019s because revisions to the expectations of future mortgage rate rises have come down or been dialed back a little bit, because we are seeing a lot of analysts and economists now predicting a rate rise to happen still but not until the second half of 2018, according to comparison website Finder, another economist survey there.
\nBecause of that, it\u2019s looking like that might put the brakes on the number of houses at risk of default for a little while longer, at least delay that from happening. But it\u2019s still a huge problem. It\u2019s going to happen at some point once rates go up, so it means they have a breather for a little while.
\nBut that\u2019s still a very large number, and yes, the main drivers of that, living costs, wages not growing, and under-employment being on the rise, under-employment particularly being the issue we hear about whenever those numbers come out.
\nIt\u2019s a deadly combination, and it\u2019s touching households right across the country, not just in those mortgage belts. Although as I mentioned here in Queensland, they are mostly in those regional areas, Toowoomba and then Mackay I think was the second worst-hit postcode.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Elizabeth, great talking to you. Elizabeth Tilley is the senior real estate reporter for\u00a0The Courier-Mail<\/em>and joined me to talk about the Digital Finance Analytics report.
\nAll the best, Elizabeth, and thanks for your time.
\nElizabeth:\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Thanks, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With so much talk about the price of power and what\u2019s happening with childcare and so on, it\u2019s no wonder that there are indications mortgage stress in Australia is probably at an absolute peak. The number of households in mortgage stress increased in August. 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