{"id":12743,"date":"2017-07-14T03:00:08","date_gmt":"2017-07-13T17:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=12743"},"modified":"2017-07-14T03:00:08","modified_gmt":"2017-07-13T17:00:08","slug":"sydney-slow-down-tipped-the-insurance-you-pay-but-get-no-benefit-from-what-is-in-store-for-brisbane-in-the-next-decade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/sydney-slow-down-tipped-the-insurance-you-pay-but-get-no-benefit-from-what-is-in-store-for-brisbane-in-the-next-decade\/","title":{"rendered":"Sydney slow down tipped + The insurance you pay but get no benefit from + What is in store for Brisbane in the next decade."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b><i><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">Highlights from this week:<\/span><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Avoiding a big cost of getting into the market.<\/li>\n<li>The one thing we know for sure about our Australian banks.<\/li>\n<li>What will the Brisbane market look like and perform like in 10 years time?<\/li>\n<li>Why, even in a rising market, you still need to look for the good demographics.<\/li>\n<li>Where people are losing money with property.<\/li>\n<li>How the regional markets are travelling generally.<\/li>\n<li>A \u2018rentvestor\u2019 tells his story.<\/li>\n<li>Why Queensland is set to benefit from a New South Wales exodus.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Transcripts:<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Why I waited 20 years to buy a family home &#8211;\u00a0Patrick Bright<\/h2>\n<p><b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I don\u2019t know if you saw it, but there was a comment recently, Channel 7\u2019s <i>Sunrise <\/i>with Kochie, where he and Natalie (I think Natalie might be his co-host) were having a debate about rent rentvesting. I think she asked him whether or not he knew of anyone who\u2019d done it. That\u2019s my memory of that.<br \/>\nIt reminds me of several conversations I\u2019ve had with Patrick Bright, in terms of rentvesting. Patrick joins me. Patrick, of course, from EPS Property Search.<br \/>\nGood day, Patrick. How are you doing?<br \/>\n<b>Patrick:<\/b>\u00a0 Hi, Kevin.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>We\u2019ve talked about this before, but I believe you were one of the first rentvestors. Is that a fair comment?<br \/>\n<b>Patrick:<\/b>\u00a0 I don\u2019t know, mate. I didn\u2019t really know anybody else doing it at the time. I figured this out back in 1998, so almost 20 years ago. I was a sales agent at the time, a young one, and I was pretty green in the industry. I was just looking at financials and looking at numbers and things like that.<br \/>\nWe were told that the average person would sell their home and move every seven and a half years back then. Those were the stats at the time. And that\u2019s why you should prospect and speak to everyone, find out when they last purchased their home, so you knew what average timeframe they might be likely to move.<br \/>\nThen that\u2019s how you get listings, obviously: talking to people, keeping a database, and knowing when they\u2019re likely to move.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 When did you work out that it was going to be better to rent and buy an investment property? Was it at that time? That\u2019s what drove that?<br \/>\n<b>Patrick:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, around that time. What I did was I looked at the massive amount of money, the buying and selling costs of buying a new home. I worked out that most people\u2019s home really did only suit them for that seven-to-ten-year mark. I looked at the cost of rent, and. I looked at the cost of paying off a mortgage. I looked at the borrowing ability. I\u2019m a young bloke, 20-odd, trying to learn \u201cHow am I going to grow my portfolio? How am I going to get into real estate?\u201d<br \/>\nI just worked it out that it was much cheaper to rent \u2013 in fact, probably about 50% the cost renting \u2013 versus buying and selling and just paying off your own place. You don\u2019t have to come up with a big pile of money for a deposit and all those costs. Now, it doesn\u2019t work if you fall behind eight-ball. The concerning thing is the people who just rent and never invest. Then they fall behind the eight-ball.<br \/>\nBut I made the conscious decision then that I would skip doing all these buy-and-sells until I had a family, I knew how big my family was going to be, I knew where I was going to school my kids, I knew where I wanted to live for the next 25+ years, and I was going to rent until then.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 That was back in\u2026 what did you say: 1997, or was it \u201998?<br \/>\n<b>Patrick:<\/b>\u00a0 1998.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Okay. Quick arithmetic there, we\u2019re looking at about roughly 20 years. That\u2019s when you started investing. Tell me about the journey from there. At what point did you buy your principle place of residence?<br \/>\n<b>Patrick:<\/b>\u00a0 Well, I\u2019ve actually only just bought my principle place of residence at the beginning of this year, in February, because it now suited me. My wife and I have decided where we want to school the kids. We\u2019re just about to have our fourth child, who\u2019s due in a few weeks.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Well done. Congratulations.<br \/>\n<b>Patrick:<\/b>\u00a0 Thank you. We thought \u201cWell, that\u2019s enough for us, four.\u201d We know where we\u2019re going to school the kids. They can go all the way to year 12 at the school. We found a place that would be big enough to house the family and one that was very close to the school, that met all our other needs of size of block, view, and all the rest of it that we wanted. We started looking for that by last year, once we found out we were having number four, and we bought.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Over those 20-odd years, how many properties have you actually purchased as investment properties, and how many of those do you still own?<br \/>\n<b>Patrick:<\/b>\u00a0 I bought over a dozen, and I still hold most of the properties that I\u2019ve bought. I basically just bought when I could afford to. I would buy another one each time and just add to my portfolio.<br \/>\nI have sold properties over the years because I\u2019ve bought, renovated, sold. I had intentions of doing that. I\u2019ve also sold properties to fund business ventures that I\u2019ve done at different times and expanded my business, and things like that. But generally, I try to just buy and hold and not sell. That set us up pretty well, because I could leverage off those investment properties to buy other investment properties along the way.<br \/>\nOne of the things I learned talking to finance brokers was that most people barely made a dent in their mortgage. They might buy a home, in seven or tens years\u2019 time, they\u2019re selling that home, and a lot of the time, the equity they had allowed them to roll into a bigger property, but they never really made much of a dent on that mortgage.<br \/>\nThat was when I came up with my 20\/25\/20 rule, which is 20% deposit, no more than 25% of your income in repayments, and you must be able to pay it off in 20 years. That rule has stood me well, and many of my clients over the years, because you can get on top of the mortgage and you can get into a good position to be able to buy another investment property sooner.<br \/>\nWhereas if you\u2019re doing what the banks will lend you \u2013 which is usually a lot more money than you probably should be borrowing, giving you 30-year mortgages, they\u2019ll allow you to pay off 30% or 40% of your income \u2013 then you\u2019re stretched, and it\u2019s very hard to get on top of it and get into the next property.<br \/>\nThat is just another rule that I have when I\u2019m investing.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Well, given that\u2019s the rule, I guess we\u2019re 20 years down the track now, some of your portfolio, you\u2019ve got to be coming at the other end, if it isn\u2019t already, with nil mortgage.<br \/>\n<b>Patrick:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, effectively. What I\u2019ve done with those properties is tax-effectively\u2026 Obviously, I\u2019ve done everything correctly, within the rules. If you\u2019re using an offset account, you pay down the mortgage by using an offset account, and then you can redraw on that offset account to invest further into another property. That\u2019s what I\u2019ve done to expand my portfolio.<br \/>\nOverall, I\u2019m not very <b>[6:24 inaudible]<\/b> because I wanted to be comfortable. But most of my properties are capital city based, because I\u2019m chasing growth, as well as returns. I\u2019m not just chasing a rental yield wherever. I want to be more certain about my growth, and I\u2019ve been very good at \u2013 obviously, it\u2019s my job; I should be good at it \u2013 picking where to go and where to invest. That\u2019s come out quite well for us, and that\u2019s put us in a very good position to do what we do.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Okay. Just to close this off then, Patrick, given all that experience you\u2019ve had with rentvesting, what would be your advice to someone to get started? What would be your top three suggestions?<br \/>\n<b>Patrick:<\/b>\u00a0 Definitely do the numbers on investing. If you don\u2019t believe me, do it yourself. I can prove it, because I\u2019ve done it many times. I\u2019ve done it, and I\u2019ve got dozens and dozens of clients who have done this over the years. It is the road less traveled. Most people will not do this; they will just buy a place to live in. So, do your numbers.<br \/>\nHave the plan. I had a conscious plan. When I met my wife, just over a decade ago, I told her of my plan and what I wanted to do, and made sure she was on board with it. It wouldn\u2019t have worked if my wife said to me \u201cI can\u2019t rent. It\u2019s not for me.\u201d<br \/>\nThe thing is you move around a lot, especially these days. People move a lot more jobs and careers. I think people are moving more often than they used to. So, I would be making sure you have your partner on board with it. That would be critical.<br \/>\nMake sure you invest where it\u2019s smart to invest. That may be where you eventually want to buy, and I think that\u2019s a good thing to do. One of the reasons I personally have invested the majority of my investment properties in Sydney is because I knew I was going to live there long term.<br \/>\nWhy I did that was because if the market is doing well in that market and I need to leverage off that property in the future or \u2013 which was always a possibility \u2013 sell a couple investment properties to fund the purchase of my primary place of residence when the time came, I wouldn\u2019t be priced out of that market.<br \/>\nSometimes people will buy in another area \u2013 a regional capital city \u2013 and that market has done poorly while the market they want to live in has done really well, and they are actually being priced out. That\u2019s a risk factor that I wanted to lower by buying the majority of my investment property where I was always going to have my primary place of residence.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Very sound advice. Hey, Patrick, it\u2019s great talking to you. Thank you very much for sharing that bit of wisdom with us. Patrick Bright there from EPS Property Search.<br \/>\nThanks for your time, mate.<br \/>\n<b>Patrick:<\/b>\u00a0 Pleasure, as always, Kevin.<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>What will Brisbane look like in 10 years &#8211;\u00a0Brett Warren<\/h2>\n<p><b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s always good to look as far into the future as you possibly can, especially if you\u2019re looking at investing into a market. The question I\u2019ve asked Brett Warren from Metropole Properties in Brisbane is what does he think Brisbane will look like in ten years from now. \u00a0He\u2019s written a very interesting article, which is up on our website right now at Real Estate Talk. Just go in and search; it\u2019s under my featured channel. He joins me to talk about this.<br \/>\nGood day, Brett. Thanks for your time.<br \/>\n<b>Brett: \u00a0<\/b>Hey, Kevin. Good to be with you.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>And thank you in particular for doing this. I know you spend a lot of time having a look at what you think the Brisbane market is going to be like. Give me a bit of a snapshot.<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>Absolutely. Kevin, when we last spoke, if you remember, we\u2019ve had a pretty ordinary decade in terms of growth and in particular, capital growth. I\u2019ve just read an article by Bernard Salt, and he\u2019s of the same opinion that Brisbane is probably going to play a bit of catchup over the next ten years and try and catch up to those major metropolises like Sydney and Melbourne.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What\u2019s involved in that? Is it a lot more infrastructure, or is there enough infrastructure in the pipeline now for us to be able to achieve that kind of growth?<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>There are some infrastructure things happening and projects happening. The more exciting thing from my point of view \u2013 and obviously from a property investment perspective \u2013 probably our three major employment hubs are really starting to expand.<br \/>\nYou probably will have heard and seen that the Queen\u2019s Wharf project is really going to be a centerpiece for the CBD expansion in Brisbane and create jobs and pump about $1.7 billion worth of tourism into the coffers, which is much needed, as you know.<br \/>\nYou may have seen Brisbane Airport looks like a bit of a sandpit at the moment, but we\u2019re actually getting a second runway out there, as well. So, that\u2019s going to increase flights by about 130,000 each year and will rival Singapore eventually, which is a major international city.<br \/>\nAnd finally, some of our hospitals are starting to transition, as well. We\u2019ve already had Lady Cilento up and running and things like that, but there\u2019s another $1.1 billion expansion of Royal Brisbane Hospital as well to create more jobs and age care facilities and things like that.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Entertainment is going to play a big part, too. The lifestyle or the climate in Queensland \u2013 and in Brisbane in particular \u2013 leads to that with the river, as well, doesn\u2019t it, Brett?<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, absolutely. We have some entertainment precincts. That\u2019s going to increase the walkability and the lifestyle. People want those lifestyle projects. So, the old, rundown Howard Smith Wharves is going to get a facelift, and they\u2019re spending about $100 million transforming that to link the city to the New Farm Riverwalk.<br \/>\nAs you know, the Brisbane Showgrounds are expanding at the moment. They\u2019re midway through that, with about $3 billion being spent to redevelop that with new retail space, laneway shops, and really going to maintain that green space, which is important.<br \/>\nProbably the last thing from my perspective: Brisbane\u2019s response to Madison Square Garden in New York City is Brisbane Live, which is a 17,000-seat amphitheater and rock concerts and multiplex cinemas and restaurants and bars. That\u2019s all planned to be above the Roma Street train line, so that\u2019s going to be very accessible to everyone in Brisbane by the public transport network.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>All of this development that\u2019s happening, Brett, what do you think is going to happen with capital growth over the next decade?<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>I can tell you it\u2019s going to be a lot more exciting than the last decade, Kevin; that\u2019s for sure. I think I mentioned before, we have a number of things that we monitor in terms of immigration, jobs, wage growth. That\u2019s all been trending downwards until recently, when we\u2019re starting to just see a bit of a neutralization and even an upswing.<br \/>\nThese types of projects are going to create massive amounts of jobs, high demand in the inner city, and things like that. And as I said before, the tourism spend is going to come up a lot as well, and that\u2019s what Brisbane has been sorely lacking in the past decade.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What areas would you be looking at in South East Queensland, or would you be looking specifically at inner Brisbane?<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>Inner Brisbane, I\u2019d probably be looking within about a 10- or 12-kilometer ring. You still need to look for the good demographics, the rising incomes, the access to employment hubs. We\u2019re planning to get about another million people to Brisbane by 2031, so as you can imagine, Kevin, public transport is going to become more and more important, so train lines and busways and things like that.<br \/>\nWe\u2019re also seeing little trends like good school catchments, and walkability is becoming a bit of a buzzword, but some of those lifestyle precincts that we\u2019re developing as well are going to be a huge benefit and create a lot of demand in that inner city area.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Are you concerned about an oversupply of apartments in that inner city 10-kilometer ring?<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, absolutely. There is a small oversupply at the moment, but you\u2019ll find that most of those areas are areas where the land has been re-zoned. It was old factories and warehouses, and all of a sudden, they could put 200 or 300 apartments on. But as I said, with a million more people to Brisbane, that\u2019s really a short-term concern. That\u2019ll get taken up, and then the land is really going to be a premium. So, that\u2019s where the drivers will come from.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Brett, that\u2019s a great insight there as to what\u2019s going to happen in the next decade in Brisbane. Things are looking pretty rosy. So, you\u2019ll be recommending people continue to invest in Brisbane, South East Queensland?<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, absolutely, particularly for the next decade. I\u2019ve spoken to a lot of people. Once that Queen\u2019s Wharf project and that expansion starts to happen, the second runway gets built, that\u2019s when you\u2019ll really start to see the lights switch back on again in Brisbane, and I think capital growth will follow.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What about some of the regional areas around Queensland? Will some of them continue to struggle?<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>I think they will. A lot of it has to do with employment. We always hear that Redcliffe is getting a train line or there\u2019s a hospital coming into the Sunshine Coast and things like that. They\u2019re isolated incidents, unfortunately. We really need\u2026 And most people are moving to where the jobs are, and unfortunately, that\u2019s the inner city and capital cities in Australia.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes. Good talking to you. Brett Warren, of course, from Metropole Properties in Brisbane. A great insight there as to what\u2019s going to be happening in the Brisbane market in the next decade.<br \/>\nBrett, thank you very much for your time.<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>Thanks, Kevin. Good to be with you.<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>The insurance you pay for someone else &#8211; Andrew Mirams<\/h2>\n<p><b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>You\u2019ve probably heard the term, LMI \u2013 lenders mortgage insurance. What is it? What\u2019s behind it? Is it necessary? Is there a way not to have to pay it? Let\u2019s find out. Andrew Mirams from Intuitive Finance is here to explain what it\u2019s all about.<br \/>\nLenders mortgage insurance: is it a curse or a benefit?<br \/>\n<b>Andrew:\u00a0 <\/b>Kevin, it\u2019s not a curse at all; it\u2019s a requirement for many borrowers to just get into the market in the modern day. When we\u2019re talking about housing affordability, it\u2019s probably not a housing affordability crisis that we\u2019ve been in; it\u2019s actually the ability for people to save that deposit to get in.<br \/>\nSo, what is LMI or lenders mortgage insurance? It\u2019s basically the difference\u2026 In Australia, all our lenders want you to have 20% deposit plus cover your stamp duties and costs and things like that. So, on a standard $500,000 purchase, you should have $100,000 plus your stamp duties and costs. You might have $125,000 to 130,000 to get in.<br \/>\nAs it\u2019s becoming dearer to live and everything like that, and we\u2019ve had a pretty low amount of wages growth, it\u2019s getting harder and harder to save that deposit. So, you can then lend up to 90% and 95% to buy your home, and it just requires an insurance there, which actually protects the lender should you ever default down the track.<br \/>\nIt\u2019s not an insurance that protects you; I think it\u2019s about the only insurance in the world that you pay and it protects someone else. So, it\u2019s there to cover the buffer, the margin.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>On that point, that\u2019s probably one of the biggest gripes. How do they get away with that? Why aren\u2019t the banks having to meet that themselves?<br \/>\n<b>Andrew:\u00a0 <\/b>Well,<b> <\/b>I guess the banks could just say no in reality. The reason they want that 20% margin there is they know that the markets go up and down at different times, and if there\u2019s ever a reason that they might have to force sale a property, they want a margin in there that they know they\u2019re going to be able to recoup their funds.<br \/>\nThe one thing we know about our Australian banks is that they don\u2019t lose money. So, that\u2019s why they don\u2019t do it, and the mortgage insurers are a separate arm to the lenders.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Okay.<b> <\/b>What is the cost of it?<br \/>\n<b>Andrew:\u00a0 <\/b>That depends. There\u2019s a whole range of factors there. It will depend on the loan amount and how high. There are certain tiers up: to $300,000, over $750,000. There\u2019s a whole range of different tiers. The more exposed you are just from a dollar perspective, the more expensive it will be.<br \/>\nIf you\u2019re only putting in a 5% deposit \u2013 so the bank is giving you a 95% loan \u2013 and the risk is higher, they\u2019re more at risk because there\u2019s less margin, so you will pay more for LMI on that situation. If you\u2019re putting in 15% deposit and your loan is 85%, then you\u2019ll find that your mortgage insurance will be a lot lower.<br \/>\nSo, there\u2019s not an actual cost that I can quote you, Kevin, because there are a whole lot of specifics in terms of your actual loan-to-value ratio, the loan amount, and then there\u2019s some analysis around the client as well that happens.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Of course, if you want to avoid it altogether, you just have to cough up a 20% deposit. Has that 20% barrier ever moved? Was it ever less or more?<br \/>\n<b>Andrew:\u00a0 <\/b>No, not in my time, and I\u2019ve been lending for around about 30 years. It\u2019s always been around that 20%. Like I said, it covers the lenders for those margins when property may go up and go down. It would be na\u00efve to think that properties don\u2019t fluctuate like shares and other things in the market; there are cycles. So, it\u2019s just there to give them a comfort or a buffer.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>I do know that with some other types of borrowing \u2013 for instance, in a super fund \u2013 sometimes you\u2019re required to come up with an even bigger deposit. Is that also geared to LMI, or is it also just because it\u2019s a super scheme?<br \/>\n<b>Andrew:\u00a0 <\/b>No, in super, you wouldn\u2019t be able to get lenders mortgage insurance because that\u2019s actually governed by the SIS Act and the superannuation. They\u2019re very stringent in their rules on superannuation.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Okay, there it is. LMI all explained for you. A necessary evil but probably a good one. It does protect you in the long run, but it also protects the bank. Andrew Mirams, thank you very much for your time. Andrew Mirams of course from Intuitive Finance.<br \/>\nThanks, mate.<br \/>\n<b>Andrew:\u00a0 <\/b>My pleasure, Kevin. Thank you.<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>The property winners and losers\u00a0&#8211; Cameron Kusher<\/h2>\n<p><b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 There\u2019s a good report inside the latest <i>Your Investment Property<\/i> magazine that deals with the Pain &amp; Gain Report, which is a report that I always love to get from CoreLogic RP Data. Joining me to talk about that report and what we\u2019re feeling in the industry at present \u2013 a bit of pain \u2013 Cameron Kusher joins me.<br \/>\nGood day, Cameron. Nice to be talking to you again. Thanks for your time.<br \/>\n<b>Cameron:<\/b>\u00a0 No worries, Kevin. Thanks.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Always an interesting report, the Pain &amp; Gain Report. Where do you go to first? Are you finding that there\u2019s more and more people in pain, Cameron?<br \/>\n<b>Cameron:<\/b>\u00a0 When we look at the resells, we are seeing it\u2019s a bit mixed. In the capital cities, we are seeing a little bit of a climb generally in the percentage of people reselling their properties at a loss. It\u2019s largely being driven by the unit market.<br \/>\nBut when we look at the combined regional markets, we\u2019re generally seeing improvement in those markets. That\u2019s, again, largely being driven by the fact that a lot of the coastal markets are stronger. We\u2019re still seeing a lot of weakness, though, in those markets linked to the mining and resources sector.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You mentioned there about units. Are we seeing a bit of evidence there that there might be an oversupply in some areas, Cameron?<br \/>\n<b>Cameron:<\/b>\u00a0 We definitely are. I guess what we\u2019re finding, though, is that it\u2019s more so outside of Sydney. In fact, Sydney is actually seeing fewer units reselling for less than what they were purchased for than houses. But in every other capital city and every other regional market across the country, we\u2019re seeing more units reselling at a loss than houses.<br \/>\nTo give you some perspective, in Melbourne, you\u2019re talking about less than 2% of houses reselling at a loss compared to about 11% of units. In Brisbane, you\u2019re talking about less than 5% of houses reselling at a loss compared to almost a quarter of all units reselling at a loss. So, you can see that there\u2019s a pretty big disparity between the two property types.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, absolutely. What are the trends that you\u2019re noticing in terms of people who are buying? We\u2019re looking at single-person households. Are they becoming more prevalent?<br \/>\n<b>Cameron:<\/b>\u00a0 They\u2019re certainly becoming more prevalent. That\u2019s reflective of what we\u2019re seeing across the country also. We\u2019ve seen a lot of unit construction over recent years, so we have been seeing more sales flowing towards that unit market. But obviously, the data is suggesting that a lot of those people now looking to resell are selling for less than what they purchased those properties for.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 We\u2019re seeing some incredible incentives being offered in some of the markets to try and clear some of this stock. Are you hearing anything about that at all? Is that a trend that would concern us?<br \/>\n<b>Cameron:<\/b>\u00a0 I think that\u2019s definitely concerning, and I think it\u2019s reflective of the fact that people \u2013 particularly developers \u2013 are really struggling to clear the end stock. Of course, in the federal Budget, we also got the announcement that developers can only sell 50% of these new off-the-plan<b> <\/b>projects offshore.<br \/>\nIt\u2019s not a case whereby they used to be able to just go and do a roadshow through Asia and find lots of buyers for these properties. They\u2019ve already initially sold a lot property to offshore buyers. They don\u2019t really have the capacity to do that anymore, and I think that\u2019s going to make it a little bit harder for developers to clear that stock at the end of a project.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b> \u00a0Cameron, what did the Pain &amp; Gain Report tell us about the Perth and Darwin markets?<br \/>\n<b>Cameron:<\/b>\u00a0 It shows us that those markets are continuing to weaken. If we look at Perth, for example, you\u2019re talking about almost a quarter of all properties \u2013 that\u2019s houses and units \u2013 selling for less than what they were purchased for. In Darwin, you\u2019re talking about more than a third of all properties in Darwin reselling for less than what they were purchased for.<br \/>\nI guess this is really reflective of what\u2019s happened. The market\u2019s fallen by about 10%. A lot of people don\u2019t have a job in these areas anymore, so they need to leave the market, and unfortunately, they\u2019re taking a bit of a hit when they do so.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Capital city versus regional markets, any indicators there for us, Cameron?<br \/>\n<b>Cameron:<\/b>\u00a0 The capital cities are generally doing better. If we look at houses, for example, you\u2019re looking at about 6% of houses reselling under the previous purchase price, compared to 11% in the regional markets. For units, it\u2019s about 11.5% or 12% for resells at a loss in the capital cities, compared to about 17% in regional markets.<br \/>\nCapital cities are still stronger, but as I said, there has been a little bit of creeping up in the percentage of loss in the capital cities and a continued fall in the regional markets.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s a snapshot for you from the Pain &amp; Gain Report from CoreLogic RP Data. My guest has been Cameron Kusher.<br \/>\nCameron, thanks for your time.<br \/>\n<b>Cameron:<\/b>\u00a0 Thanks, Kevin.<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Reasons not to buy in Sydney &#8211; Simon Pressley<\/h2>\n<p><b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 There\u2019s a blog currently on the Real Estate Talk website written by Simon Pressley from Propertyology that prompts me to want to talk to him about it. He makes the comment that an exodus is under way with thousands of people leaving New South Wales for more affordable property locations \u2013 and why wouldn\u2019t they?<br \/>\nPropertyology Managing Director Simon Pressley said more than 23,000 people migrated away from New South Wales over the 12-month period and that number is expected to escalate in the months and years ahead. Simon joins me.<br \/>\nSimon, thanks for your time.<br \/>\n<b>Simon:<\/b>\u00a0 Always a pleasure chatting, Kevin.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Simon, what impact will this exodus, if it continues, have on the Sydney property market, do you think?<br \/>\n<b>Simon:\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s a direct reflection of its housing affordability, we feel. There\u2019s a bit of a precedent that was set at the turn of the century \u2013 roughly from 2002 to, say, 2007 \u2013 where there were very large volumes of people exiting New South Wales for other states. In that era, Queensland was the biggest beneficiary. And it would appear that that sort of trend is continuing.<br \/>\nCertainly, that exodus out of New South Wales is continuing. That doesn\u2019t necessarily mean that it\u2019s going to be repeatable with all<b> <\/b>of them coming to Queensland.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 But, Simon, we are hearing about an undersupply driving the market there. Is that real?<br \/>\n<b>Simon:\u00a0 <\/b>No, I don\u2019t think it\u2019s real. It\u2019s a perception that a lot of people have who live in Sydney because it\u2019s so congested and expensive, and they process that to mean undersupply. It\u2019s always going to be congested, it\u2019s always going to be expensive, but the actual data shows that there\u2019s been more new supply in Sydney over the last couple of years \u2013 and for the next couple of years, for that matter \u2013 than at any time before.<br \/>\nOf course, people then respond and go, \u201cOh, but our population growth is much higher now than any time before.\u201d That\u2019s actually not true. The population growth in Sydney over the last couple of years is comparable to, say, 2006 and 2007, but in those two years, Sydney built only half the volume of properties that they\u2019re building now, and there was no boom in 2006 and 2007.<br \/>\nSo, we don\u2019t think there\u2019s an undersupply or an oversupply. What we\u2019re saying is there\u2019s a lot more supply than what people probably realize is what\u2019s happening, and in the next couple of years, there are going to be record volumes.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 We always talk about the property cycle, don\u2019t we? How does this fit into that cycle, or is it throwing it out?<br \/>\n<b>Simon:<\/b>\u00a0 I think Sydney has definitely well and truly peaked. It\u2019s in its fifth year of a strong price growth cycle. It\u2019s rare for any property market to be that strong for that long. Typically, three years of good growth is quite a normal cycle. Of course, Sydney has had such a strong economy combined with low interest rates that we\u2019ve all benefited from, and that\u2019s probably why it\u2019s gone into its fifth year. But I think it\u2019s definitely at the end of its cycle now.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 When we see that Sydney market adjust, it does actually go into a bit of a crash or a bit of a freefall for a little while. Is that likely to happen, do you think?<br \/>\n<b>Simon:<\/b>\u00a0 Anything\u2019s possible. I\u2019m not forecasting that Sydney property values are going to significantly decline. We could see some modest decline, but things decline for a reason, and the common causes for property values to fall are either fast rising interest rates and\/or really poor economic conditions.<br \/>\nNow, we\u2019ve already had some out-of-cycle interest rate rises and Australia\u2019s most expensive city also has the largest value mortgages, so that\u2019s going to have some impact, more so on those who have investment properties than owner occupiers. But as far forward as we can analyze, its economy is likely to remain strong.<br \/>\nFor that reason, I can\u2019t see Sydney\u2019s market crashing. I don\u2019t expect strong price growth: modest growth or you could have a prolonged period of next to nothing.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Is it likely to mean that Melbourne is going to become our biggest city sooner than is currently projected?<br \/>\n<b>Simon:<\/b>\u00a0 Possibly. Melbourne\u2019s population growth rate has become over the last couple of years the fastest in Australia. It hasn\u2019t always been that way. Brisbane and Perth and Darwin, for that matter, have always been the three strongest population growths, but in this current era, it\u2019s Melbourne.<br \/>\nLet\u2019s not forget, though, whilst Melbourne is not as expensive as Sydney is still Australia\u2019s second most expensive city. So, if someone were to leave Sydney, let\u2019s say, because housing affordability is just not there and go to Melbourne, are they going to be comfortable living 50 kilometers out of the Melbourne CBD where you can buy an affordable house? I\u2019m not sure. They might move somewhere else.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 From a pure investor perspective, are there better capital growth locations around Australia than Sydney?<br \/>\n<b>Simon:<\/b>\u00a0 Almost everywhere, I would say. We wouldn\u2019t have said that over the last five years, but as I said earlier, Kevin, I feel that Sydney is at the very end of its growth cycle. Other than Melbourne, most of Australia hasn\u2019t really done anything over the last five to 10 years, really. So, we could generalize and say everywhere else has its growth cycle ahead of it.<br \/>\nRight here and now today, the hottest market in the country unquestionably is Hobart. We feel it\u2019s still got a few good years ahead of it. Canberra is another one that\u2019s performing well, though Canberra is a little bit on the expensive side as well. Brisbane we think has definitely got better potential than Sydney, although I think it is unlikely at the minute to have spectacular growth.<br \/>\nWe\u2019re encouraging investors to have a critical look at all of regional Australia. Region doesn\u2019t always mean risky. It can mean risky if it\u2019s a tiny, small mining town, but if you cast your eye to the really strong regional cities, many of those have some really good capital growth potential and better rental yields.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Always good talking to you. Get more information and read the full blog article on our website RealEstateTalk.com.au. Look for it under my channel. You\u2019ll find it there from Simon Pressley at Propertyology. He\u2019s been my guest.<br \/>\nSimon, thank you very much for your time.<br \/>\n<b>Simon:<\/b>\u00a0 Thank you, Kevin. Have a great day.<br \/>\n&nbsp;<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Highlights from this week: Avoiding a big cost of getting into the market. The one thing we know for sure about our Australian banks. What will the Brisbane market look like and perform like in 10 years time? Why, even in a rising market, you&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,11,13,24,25],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-12743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-shows","category-sponsored-channels","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Sydney slow down tipped + The insurance you pay but get no benefit from + What is in store for Brisbane in the next decade. - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/sydney-slow-down-tipped-the-insurance-you-pay-but-get-no-benefit-from-what-is-in-store-for-brisbane-in-the-next-decade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sydney slow down tipped + The insurance you pay but get no benefit from + What is in store for Brisbane in the next decade. - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Highlights from this week: Avoiding a big cost of getting into the market. 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