{"id":11947,"date":"2017-06-08T03:00:18","date_gmt":"2017-06-07T17:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=11947"},"modified":"2017-06-08T03:00:18","modified_gmt":"2017-06-07T17:00:18","slug":"2017-report-card-andrew-wilson","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/2017-report-card-andrew-wilson\/","title":{"rendered":"2017 report card \u2013 Andrew Wilson"},"content":{"rendered":"

We are almost half way through the year, so lets look back at what has happened so far as we look at the 2017 report card with Dr Andrew Wilson.<\/strong>
\nTranscript:<\/strong>
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Given that we are 50% into the year already, it\u2019s time to have a bit of a look back and check on the report card for what\u2019s happened so far in 2017. Joining me to do that, Dr. Andrew Wilson from The Domain Group.
\nAndrew, how would you classify the first six months of 2017?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 No doubt, a positive start to the year, Kevin. Also, no doubt that we\u2019re moving away from that very strong prices growth \u2013 particularly in Sydney and Melbourne \u2013 that we had at the end of last year. Prices are still rising in all capital city markets, and interestingly, we\u2019re starting to see a bottoming out in the Perth market as well.
\nI think those value opportunities and perceptions are starting to move buyers back into the Perth market. Although I don\u2019t expect prices to grow, I think that we won\u2019t see the sort of declines we\u2019ve had recently.
\nMost other markets are certainly vibrant, although no doubt coming off their peaks of the end of last year, and no surprise because the further we move away from those low interest rate drivers of higher house prices\u2026 And of course, remembering we had a rate cut. Our last rate cut was in August. The further we get away from rate cuts, the less opportunity or the less capacity we have to push prices up. But certainly, in most markets, demand is ahead of supply.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Growth in prices, the blame for it still being laid fairly at the feet of foreign buyers. That\u2019s hard to say early in the morning! I notice a report out on the Domain site saying that the majority of Sydney-siders\u00a0<\/b>don\u2019t believe that foreign investors should be allowed to buy property in Australia at all.
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019m not sure what sort of valid insights we should gain from that type of data modeling, Kevin. I think that there\u2019s no doubt that there is a very strong interest in our product from international investors, but there are certainly a lot of hoops to jump through for international investors in our marketplace.
\nI find it amusing that we\u2019re wanting to put up the barriers for international investment in our country. We have such a need, particularly the student market, our university industry, for income generated from foreign students. I don\u2019t think we can have it both ways, and I\u2019m not sure that there is any real validity in terms of imbalances caused by foreign investment.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I sometimes wonder whether governments just go for low-hanging fruit. Everyone is talking about affordability, looking for laying blame and so on. There has been a lot of talk, even in this last couple of weeks, about how much focus we should be putting on affordability.
\nI had a talk to Michael Yardney about this recently and he made the point, do we really want houses to be more affordable in Australia? If you look at what needs to happen for that to happen, they are going to be a lot of investors, a lot of property owners who would be very unhappy.
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Our latest affordability index for the capital city markets for the March quarter shows that affordability is, in fact, improving. And in most capital cities \u2013 in fact, in all capital cities \u2013 affordability as measured by the proportion from the average income of the average loan retirement is below the last 15 years\u2019 average.
\nThere\u2019s no doubt that it\u2019s tough for first-home buyers, particularly in the Sydney market, and it\u2019s very tough for renters as well. But in terms of owner-occupiers, these low interest rates, they certainly haven\u2019t had it this good for over a decade in terms of the growth in the house prices and low interest rates.
\nI think we have to realize that foreign investment is positive in terms of generating jobs and providing supply into our marketplace. High prices do mean a lot of people miss out on property \u2013 it\u2019s a market environment \u2013 and as you said, we do get the blame game happening. Whether it\u2019s foreign investors or real estate agents, it really doesn\u2019t reflect what is still a remarkably robust and resilient housing market.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Can I just pick on a point that you just made about how difficult it is for first-home buyers in Sydney? The point I would make is that first-home buyers don\u2019t really constitute a big slice of the market. It\u2019s actually difficult for anyone to buy a property in Sydney because of affordability, not just first-home buyers. So why do we always focus on first-home buyers?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 I guess that it\u2019s the great Australian dream and we do, I guess, do have an underlying connection to being able to purchase property in this country. We\u2019ve come from backgrounds and cultures where it\u2019s been very difficult and there have been significant barriers to owning property, so I guess that\u2019s part of our egalitarian society that we feel that we need to be able to own property and get into property.
\nBut it\u2019s always been tough, Kevin, and it is very tough now at the moment. When prices rise, it always makes it tougher for first-home buyers. That\u2019s the nature of the beast, because first-home buyers don\u2019t have a trade-in to bring into the purchase proposition as homeowners do have.
\nBut with limited supply, if we start trying to increase demand through bonuses or cutting stamp duty for first-home buyers, it\u2019ll only put up prices in the medium term. That doesn\u2019t really do anybody any favors except existing homeowners.
\nI think that the clear conundrum in our housing markets, particularly the ones that have higher prices, is supply. With initiatives being announced recently to cut off supply or to curtail supply in terms of our foreign developers and foreign investors, it is quite counterintuitive given that we\u2019re basically very, very skinny for new development coming through. Even the Melbourne and Brisbane markets are starting to look like they\u2019re rebalancing now after a strong period of new development.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Pull that crystal ball out, mate. The landscape going ahead between now and the end of the year, what\u2019s it going to be like?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Housing markets are vibrant still, Kevin, and as I said, growth is still positive but growth levels are declining. As I said, even the Perth market is looking like it\u2019s going to find its bottom this year at some stage. So, I remain quite positive.
\nInterest rates are always the key, Kevin. We know that\u2019s where housing markets are going to go. There has been a lot of talk, which I\u2019ve found quite confounding, that we would get higher interest rates from the RBA this year. I think that we\u2019re now, sooner rather than later, going to get a cut in interest rates from the RBA, maybe as soon as June or even July.
\nThe latest economic data is very concerning. We had retail sales falling over March for the second consecutive month, and that\u2019s the first time that\u2019s happened since 2012. Retail sales were supposed to be one of the key drivers of the economy, and with the actual sales going backwards, it does reflect this low-growth, low-income, underemployed economy that we do have now.
\nI think given that banks are now looking to pass on the new bank tax with higher interest rates likely, I think the Reserve Bank will have to act now to offset that and to try to stimulate an economy that is clearly still stuck in second gear.
\nI think we have a chance of having negative economic growth again over the March quarter. Of course, we had negative growth over the September quarter and bounced back over December. But given we had the Queensland cyclone earlier this year and low retail sales, I think that we might see negative growth.
\nI think that the Reserve Bank must start to identify that and ignore a lot of the narrative about high Sydney house prices and higher Melbourne house prices and start looking at the main game, and that\u2019s to get people in work again.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Consumer sentiment down, of course, after the federal Budget was released, and that probably was predictable because it was one of those Budgets that we had to have, one that doesn\u2019t come with a lot of sweetness. So, I\u2019m not terribly surprised that consumer confidence is down, Andrew. How would you feel about that?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 I think a lot of the housing market initiatives in the Budget were predictable, Kevin. I think that they satisfied a lot of the issues that have been out in the public forum this year so far.
\nIt\u2019s been a little hysterical, some of the discussions that we have had and it hasn\u2019t really reflected on-the-ground issues. Some of the options that are being proposed would probably cause more problems than they\u2019d solve, but most of the issues were addressed at some level by the government.
\nHowever, I think that they were just really at the margin and they won\u2019t have any significant impact on market dynamics. Interest rates are the main game and the economy is the main game. As I said, I think that we will see a very flattish\u00a0<\/b>outlook for interest rates going forward, and I think that means that our housing markets will remain quite stable.
\nWe have to remember that migration is very strong into Melbourne and Sydney at the moment, and we\u2019re starting to see signs that migration is turning around, particularly into South East Queensland as well.
\nWith undersupplied capital city housing markets \u2013 we\u2019re seeing the recent strong growth in buildings starting to decline \u2013 that\u2019ll only mean higher prices, or certainly, it\u2019ll keep demand ticking over ahead of supply.
\nBut we\u2019re not going to see those big double-figure increases in house prices annually that we\u2019ve seen in Sydney and Melbourne recently. It\u2019ll be flatter, but I do believe we will continue to see prices grow.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Dr. Andrew Wilson from The Domain Group. Thank you very much for your time, Andrew.
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Thank you, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We are almost half way through the year, so lets look back at what has happened so far as we look at the 2017 report card with Dr Andrew Wilson. 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