{"id":11826,"date":"2017-05-30T03:00:24","date_gmt":"2017-05-29T17:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=11826"},"modified":"2017-05-30T03:00:24","modified_gmt":"2017-05-29T17:00:24","slug":"do-we-really-want-houses-to-be-more-affordable-michael-yardney","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/do-we-really-want-houses-to-be-more-affordable-michael-yardney\/","title":{"rendered":"Do we really want houses to be more affordable? \u2013 Michael Yardney"},"content":{"rendered":"

There is a lot of talk in the media about housing affordability and how a whole generation of Australians will no longer be able to realise the great Australian dream\u00a0 of owning their own home.\u00a0 <\/b>I\u2019m sure you\u2019ve heard how investors, negative gearing, foreign investment and the whole host of other factors are to blame.\u00a0\u00a0 To make housing more affordable we would have to see house prices fall. So\u2026..do we really want houses to be more affordable?\u00a0 Now that\u2019s an interesting question and I put that to Michael Yardney<\/strong><\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>
\nTranscript:<\/strong>
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>I can tell you that the topic that I\u2019ll be talking to you about in this segment is really going to draw a lot of comment, I can assure you, because one thing that everyone talks about is how unaffordable housing is in Australia. We\u2019re going to pose a different question: the great Australian dream, owning your own home; is it really all that important?
\nNow, I\u2019m sure you\u2019ve heard how investors, negative gearing, foreign investment, and a whole host of other factors are all to blame for making housing so unaffordable. But today, I\u2019m going to turn this around a bit. I want to take a different view and look, do we really want houses to be more affordable? What are the consequences if house prices do fall? To get a view on this,\u00a0Michael Yardney<\/a>\u00a0joins me from Metropole Property Strategists.
\nMichael, have you thought about\u2026? You obviously have. Give me your view on that. Do we really want houses to be more affordable?
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>Kevin, I\u2019ve a father of six kids in my blended family and nine grandchildren, so I fully understand how difficult it is for young people to get into the property market, and I\u2019ve had those issues many years ago when I first got into the market, as well. So, I understand the concern.
\nOn the other hand, if you break it down, there are two groups of people who seem to want house prices to fall. Because to make properties more affordable, it means that property values are going to have to go down. Because if you suddenly increase everybody\u2019s wages so that they can pay more, that\u2019s just going to keep pushing property values up.
\nSo, the two groups who in my mind are wanting property values to fall are either first-home buyers wanting to get into the market or Australians who want to get into property investment but they feel they\u2019re priced out of the market.
\nBut Kevin, if you think about it, both of these groups only want prices to fall for a short while. They don\u2019t want prices to keep falling once they bought a property. They want it to fall for a short while, get in the market, and then make a killing like everyone else has. Because nobody really wants prices to keep falling continuously.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>I\u2019m going to actually add a third group into that. I\u2019m doing this without notice and I don\u2019t expect you to comment on it, but I do believe there\u2019s a third group, and they\u2019re just a bunch of whingers who will never buy a property anyways and they just want to get down on everyone who does own property.
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>Well, there\u2019s no doubt that there is an element of jealousy out there. You\u2019re right, Kevin.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>I just had to get that off my chest, Michael.
\nIf I could just ask you another question, what do you think could make house prices fall?
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>Well, we\u2019re not talking about the correction that everyone knows is going to happen, because house prices are going to moderate and stagnate and in some areas, drop \u2013 I don\u2019t know \u2013 5% or 7%. But when you talk about affordability, you need property values to drop considerably, and that would mean that people can\u2019t hold on to their homes and they have to sell them, and there\u2019s no one wanting to buy them, so property prices want to drop considerably. Because a tiny drop isn\u2019t going to create a big change in affordability.
\nSo, for that significant drop to occur, Kevin, it\u2019s either going to be a recession or a depression where people can\u2019t hold onto their mortgages because they haven\u2019t got jobs or because interest rates are very high or because finance is too tight so they have to give away their homes.
\nAnd in certain segments, it\u2019s going to be where there\u2019s just too much supply compared to the demand, and those forces of the supply and demand market are going to make property prices drop, Kevin.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>You mentioned earlier about the two groups who only want property prices to drop for a short period of time, just so that they can get into the market. That\u2019s simply not going to happen. Any drop in prices is going to be more long term.
\nWhat do you think would be the consequences if that happened?
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>All you have to do is look overseas. See what\u2019s happened in the United States when property prices crashed, or in parts of Europe where still there are problems. First of all, we would be having a terrible economic time. There\u2019d be job losses and mortgage defaults.
\nInterestingly, Kevin, this won\u2019t affect the rich, well-heeled property moguls who people are blaming for the property price rises. It\u2019ll affect ordinary Australians, working class Australians. They\u2019ll be out of their jobs, they\u2019re going to lose their homes because they\u2019re going to default on their loans, and that has terrible social consequences and personal consequences on their family. So, it\u2019s not going to be a good idea.
\nI think some of these people will be displaced, they\u2019re going to move out of their homes, because even though mortgages are affordable, they\u2019re not going to have the jobs. And where are they going to live?
\nI think the other thing people haven\u2019t considered is when this happens \u2013 you just have to look at what happened in the United States \u2013 just because prices are cheap doesn\u2019t mean the banks are suddenly going to lend you money that you can get in. Because if those consequences occur where the market crashes, property values drop, the banks are suddenly going to be much more cautious about who they lend money to.
\nAnd ordinary Australians like you and me, and everyone who has money in their superannuation fund, their funds are going to decrease in value because most super funds, most industry funds, are invested in banks and in real estate and in property trusts.
\nAnd then the average household wealth that we have tied up in our family home is also going to be decimated, and a lot of us are counting on that for our older years, our golden years, or to pass on to our kids. So, the consequences would be horrific, Kevin.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>Yes, they would be, and we have to therefore hope that that doesn\u2019t eventuate.
\nSo, Michael, for those who are struggling to get into the market or appear to be struggling, what do you think the answer is? What should they be doing?
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>I think for many first-home owners, they\u2019re going to have to adjust their expectation \u2013 their expectation as to the location where they could live or the size of the property they could live in or the location where their property is going to be. Maybe they should be buying an apartment rather than a house, and others are going to need to rentvest \u2013 in other words, rent where they want to live but can\u2019t afford to, and put their money in the property market somewhere.
\nOne of my concerns there is as affordability increases, some people are being pushed out of the good markets and buying properties in what I\u2019d call secondary locations, which aren\u2019t going to have the good capital growth, or they\u2019re going to move to the outer suburbs where the traffic is just too difficult, it\u2019s going to be long commutes in and out from work. So, there are lots of consequences to this we have to consider.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>Yes, and that\u2019s another reason why I have difficulty sometimes with these government schemes that try and push people into more affordable housing, things like First Home Owners Grant, and they restrict it to new builds, so therefore you\u2019re restricting someone to an area that may not have infrastructure, it\u2019s probably not going to have good growth.
\nSo, all of these things, this trimming around the edges that you and I have spoken about is not necessarily a good thing for making houses more affordable.
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>I guess it goes right back to your question initially: do we want houses to be more affordable? There are 9 million houses in Australia. 70% of Australians own their own home. It\u2019s only a really small group, maybe about 5% who are currently being locked out of the market. Do 70% of Australians have to suffer for those 5%?
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>Yes, exactly. Great talking to you, Michael. Michael Yardney from Metropole Property Strategists.
\nThanks for your time, Michael.
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>My pleasure, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There is a lot of talk in the media about housing affordability and how a whole generation of Australians will no longer be able to realise the great Australian dream\u00a0 of owning their own home.\u00a0 I\u2019m sure you\u2019ve heard how investors, negative gearing, foreign investment…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":11828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34,10,11,13,36,22,25,27],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-11826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-research-topic","category-sponsored-channels","category-trends-topic","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nDo we really want houses to be more affordable? 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