{"id":11762,"date":"2017-05-24T03:00:12","date_gmt":"2017-05-23T17:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=11762"},"modified":"2017-05-24T03:00:12","modified_gmt":"2017-05-23T17:00:12","slug":"property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/","title":{"rendered":"Property experts could have called it too soon \u2013 Michael Yardney"},"content":{"rendered":"

Is it a time for some caution about the property market?\u00a0\u00a0 Has the market topped and is it likely to decline?\u00a0 Questions on the lips of many investors and some concern being expressed by some of the country\u2019s top market analysts.\u00a0 Michael Yardney<\/strong><\/a> gives his thoughts.
\nTranscript:<\/strong>
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>Well, we\u2019re hearing it now quite often that the property market has topped. Well, that\u2019s what some experts are saying. Initially, some analysts at investment bank UBS called the top of the housing market just a few weeks ago, suggesting both market activity and price growth will now moderate.
\nCoreLogic joined in on that, and they made some comments that it may just be too early to make that sort of a call. However, they did say there is a note for some caution. Well, is it a time to worry? Let\u2019s find out. Michael Yardney<\/a> from Metropole Property Strategists joins me.
\nMichael, you\u2019ve no doubt read these reports. What\u2019s your take on that?
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>One month\u2019s statistics is a bit too soon to call the top, but Kevin, if we\u2019re honest, we\u2019ve really had an amazing couple of years in the real estate markets. It\u2019s been a dream run for many investors, particularly those who\u2019ve lived in Melbourne, Sydney, and to a lesser extent, Brisbane.
\nMoney\u2019s been cheap, the banks have been falling each other to lend you money, and as long as you bought at a reasonable location, that rising tide lifted all ships. But we are changing now. The conditions that drove those dramatic price rises over the last couple of years, they seem to be fading away currently, Kevin.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>The question for you, Michael, is where are headed?
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>Some commentators are suggesting that now with lower auction clearance rates and slower investor finance, that we\u2019ve hit the top of the market. Now, sure, auction clearance rates have dropped a bit in the two big cities, Melbourne and Sydney, but they\u2019re still in the 70% range, not the 80% range, and I don\u2019t think you need to worry about it until it gets to maybe around the low 60% range.
\nI think what\u2019s really happening is that we\u2019re in for a period of more moderate price growth for the rest of the year, followed by a period of stagnation where prices are going to slow down, stop, and in some areas, drop a bit.
\nBut Kevin, the sky isn\u2019t falling and we\u2019re not doomed, and property prices are not going to crash.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>Michael, what\u2019s going to drive the property markets now?
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>On the macro level, it\u2019s going to continue to be things like our economy, interest rates, availability of credit, consumer confidence, the world economic events, what the government is going to do if it fiddles with policies, and those external influences like political influences that make us either feel confident or not, and then digging down deeper at the local level where we live, it\u2019s going to be related to our economic growth, our jobs, population growth, and of course, the old fashioned supply and demand always is going to be a big factor.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>How big a player will finance be in this whole scenario, Michael?
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>Kevin,\u00a0<\/b>I\u2019ve been investing for over 40 years, and every property cycle I\u2019ve invested through has eventually come to an end because of finance. In the old days, it used to be called a credit squeeze. Kevin, you\u2019re old enough to remember when the government induced those credit squeezes and the banks just weren\u2019t lending anyone any money. Then after deregulation, the Reserve Bank did it in a different way. What it did was hike interest rates, and every time it did that, it put an end to the cycle.
\nThis time around, Kevin, we\u2019re back to a credit squeeze. I\u2019m surprised no one else has called it that. Maybe they\u2019re not as old as me and remember that term, but ASIC has created those macro-prudential controls, so even though interest rates are low, they\u2019re tightening the screws on certain people \u2013 on investors.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>I\u2019m just wondering, Michael, if this is such a bad thing, because the Sydney and Melbourne markets, that growth seem to me to be almost unsustainable.
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>You\u2019re right, Kevin. I much prefer having a credit squeeze in a low-ish interest rate environment, in other words, where the average person isn\u2019t going to default on their mortgage, where businesses are not going to go bust, and it\u2019s just going to slow the market more steadily than that blunt hammer of a very high interest rate environment that affects everybody. So you\u2019re right, it\u2019s actually not a bad thing at all.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>Summarize this for me, Michael. What\u2019s ahead? Give me the bottom line.
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>I think ahead, we\u2019re going to have a period of subdued economic growth. Our economy is doing okay, but it\u2019s not going to boom along. I think jobs growth is going to remain fragmented, with most of the permanent new job growth happening in Victoria and New South Wales. We\u2019re in for a period of lower inflation, so the culmination of all those things means we\u2019re very likely to be in for a period of lower interest rates.
\nConsumer confidence is going to be fickle. When people are uncertain, they\u2019re going to tend to stop spending, and we have local issues that are concerning us and overseas issues. I think finance is probably going to get a little bit tighter before it gets looser. Our population growth is slowing, and I think another factor that\u2019s going to slow down these markets so that we\u2019re going to head into a period of more moderate growth is less foreign investment.
\nOnly recently, I\u2019ve read that last year, there were 40,000 requests for the Foreign Investment Review Board for people from overseas buying Australian properties. This year, the forecast is for 15,000, less than half the number of foreign investors this year. That\u2019s going to affect certain segments \u2013 those new and off-the-plan properties.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>So the bottom line, Michael, is that we\u2019re in for a bit of moderate growth?
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>Yes. Like it or not, we\u2019ve moved on to the next phase of the property cycle; you\u2019re right. But obviously, there\u2019s still going to be some overperformers and some underperformers, so you have to find the sort of property where the demographics, the people are still going to be able to afford to pay, where they\u2019re going to have good jobs, where they\u2019re going to have rising wages, and this is likely to occur in the middle ring suburbs of our big capital cities, Kevin.
\nKevin:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>An interesting insight there, Michael. Thank you so much for joining us today on the show. I appreciate your time.
\nMichael:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b>My pleasure, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is it a time for some caution about the property market?\u00a0\u00a0 Has the market topped and is it likely to decline?\u00a0 Questions on the lips of many investors and some concern being expressed by some of the country\u2019s top market analysts.\u00a0 Michael Yardney gives his…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":11764,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33,10,11,13,36,22,25],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-11762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-case-studies-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-research-topic","category-sponsored-channels","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nProperty experts could have called it too soon \u2013 Michael Yardney - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Property experts could have called it too soon \u2013 Michael Yardney - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Is it a time for some caution about the property market?\u00a0\u00a0 Has the market topped and is it likely to decline?\u00a0 Questions on the lips of many investors and some concern being expressed by some of the country\u2019s top market analysts.\u00a0 Michael Yardney gives his...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-05-23T17:00:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"rolanrush\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"rolanrush\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"rolanrush\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/384a57ac9e52cb9bf19896cb15eaa52d\"},\"headline\":\"Property experts could have called it too soon \u2013 Michael Yardney\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-05-23T17:00:12+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1185,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"\",\"keywords\":[\"podcast\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Case Studies\",\"Kevin Turner\",\"Kevin's Update\",\"Latest Stories\",\"Property Investment\",\"Research\",\"Sponsored Channels\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/\",\"name\":\"Property experts could have called it too soon \u2013 Michael Yardney - Realty Talk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-05-23T17:00:12+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/384a57ac9e52cb9bf19896cb15eaa52d\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"\",\"contentUrl\":\"\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Property experts could have called it too soon \u2013 Michael Yardney\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/\",\"name\":\"Realty Talk\",\"description\":\"Your Trusted Voice For Property Investing. Anywhere, Anytime.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/384a57ac9e52cb9bf19896cb15eaa52d\",\"name\":\"rolanrush\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/86544778804295a7fa45cbde097dc3a58a45ba6ed28859f17059ca74c38723d2?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/86544778804295a7fa45cbde097dc3a58a45ba6ed28859f17059ca74c38723d2?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/86544778804295a7fa45cbde097dc3a58a45ba6ed28859f17059ca74c38723d2?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"rolanrush\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/author\\\/rolanrush\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Property experts could have called it too soon \u2013 Michael Yardney - Realty Talk","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Property experts could have called it too soon \u2013 Michael Yardney - Realty Talk","og_description":"Is it a time for some caution about the property market?\u00a0\u00a0 Has the market topped and is it likely to decline?\u00a0 Questions on the lips of many investors and some concern being expressed by some of the country\u2019s top market analysts.\u00a0 Michael Yardney gives his...","og_url":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/","og_site_name":"Realty Talk","article_published_time":"2017-05-23T17:00:12+00:00","author":"rolanrush","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"rolanrush","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/"},"author":{"name":"rolanrush","@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/#\/schema\/person\/384a57ac9e52cb9bf19896cb15eaa52d"},"headline":"Property experts could have called it too soon \u2013 Michael Yardney","datePublished":"2017-05-23T17:00:12+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/"},"wordCount":1185,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"","keywords":["podcast"],"articleSection":["Case Studies","Kevin Turner","Kevin's Update","Latest Stories","Property Investment","Research","Sponsored Channels"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/","url":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/","name":"Property experts could have called it too soon \u2013 Michael Yardney - Realty Talk","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"","datePublished":"2017-05-23T17:00:12+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/#\/schema\/person\/384a57ac9e52cb9bf19896cb15eaa52d"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/#primaryimage","url":"","contentUrl":""},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/property-experts-could-have-called-it-too-soon-michael-yardney\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Property experts could have called it too soon \u2013 Michael Yardney"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/#website","url":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/","name":"Realty Talk","description":"Your Trusted Voice For Property Investing. Anywhere, Anytime.","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/#\/schema\/person\/384a57ac9e52cb9bf19896cb15eaa52d","name":"rolanrush","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/86544778804295a7fa45cbde097dc3a58a45ba6ed28859f17059ca74c38723d2?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/86544778804295a7fa45cbde097dc3a58a45ba6ed28859f17059ca74c38723d2?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/86544778804295a7fa45cbde097dc3a58a45ba6ed28859f17059ca74c38723d2?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"rolanrush"},"url":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/author\/rolanrush\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11762","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/176692471"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11762"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11762\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}