{"id":11737,"date":"2017-05-19T03:00:53","date_gmt":"2017-05-18T17:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=11737"},"modified":"2017-05-19T03:00:53","modified_gmt":"2017-05-18T17:00:53","slug":"moderate-growth-but-still-tough-times-ahead-what-is-ahead-for-the-seq-market-areas-set-to-boom-why-and-when","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/moderate-growth-but-still-tough-times-ahead-what-is-ahead-for-the-seq-market-areas-set-to-boom-why-and-when\/","title":{"rendered":"Moderate growth but still tough times ahead + What is ahead for the SEQ market + Areas set to boom \u2013 why and when"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b><i><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">Highlights from this week:<\/span><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The reasons why Brisbane can\u2019t match the growth happening in Sydney and Melbourne<\/li>\n<li>The properties that should held for a long time and the ones that should not be<\/li>\n<li>The areas that are set to boom and why<\/li>\n<li>What you can ask an agent to guarantee that will test their ability<\/li>\n<li>Some commentators could be calling the top of the market too soon<\/li>\n<li>What the next decade holds in store for the South East Queensland market<\/li>\n<li>The best people to talk to so you get the best advice<\/li>\n<li>Why you should be looking to invest on the Gold Coast<\/li>\n<li>An agents ability to manage the stress in the selling process should be a KPI<\/li>\n<li>Why the market is likely to get tougher<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Transcripts:<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>Why agent commissions are falling\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Martin Grunstein<\/h2>\n<p><b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Well, without doubt, there would be few industries in the world that have suffered the erosion of margin suffered by the real estate industry. Agent commissions have fallen from around 3% 15 years ago to around 2% today. That\u2019s according to Martin Grunstein, who is one of the world\u2019s best experts on customer service. He joins me to talk about this.<br \/>\nG\u2019day, Martin. How are you doing?<br \/>\n<b>Martin:\u00a0 <\/b>I\u2019m well, Kevin. Nice to talk to you.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Why is that so? Why have they fallen so much?<br \/>\n<b>Martin:\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s been a commoditization of the industry by the agents. It\u2019s not unique to real estate; it\u2019s happened in a lot of other industries. The car industry, which used to produce millionaires in the 1970s and 1980s has almost no profit in it today. I was at one car conferences and they said dealer profitability nationally is 0.5%. They only make money on finance and aftermarket.<br \/>\nWhat has happened is a commoditization. Just like the car industry, when all the advertisers will get the cheapest price and then whatever. Holden is competitive. It used to be Ford. Now, it\u2019s another Holden dealer offering the same car at a cheaper price. And a lot of that has happened in the real estate industry.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Just on that point about car dealers, there\u2019s a great listening here for real estate agents too I think. But with car dealers, they were quite happy \u2013 talking to some of them several years ago \u2013 to not have much of a margin on the sale and know that they could pick it up on the service. But do you think where the problem lies is they took their focus off what should have been the main source of income?<br \/>\n<b>Martin:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, absolutely. Where is the law that says you can\u2019t make a profit on a $40,000 car and they have to make it out of service and finance? Goodness me. Why can\u2019t they make it out of service, finance, <i>and<\/i> the car? The reason is if you look at advertising in the car industry, all you see, they all echo \u201cWe\u2019ll never be undersold. You find any price and we\u2019ll match it.\u201d What they\u2019ve done is they\u2019ve taken all the margin out of their own industry.<br \/>\nI believe that\u2019s happening in the real estate industry as well \u2013 maybe not so much on a formalized basis, but you are having agents out there virtually matching price with other agents to get the listing, and it\u2019s almost become the norm that these guys will negotiate their fee. It\u2019s hard to have sympathy for the agents who have commoditized their own industry.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>We\u2019ve actually put a blog article that you wrote, Martin. It\u2019s actually on both of our websites, Real Estate Uncut and Real Estate Talk. It\u2019s a really interesting read. You make a point in there. Let\u2019s talk about real estate now and forget about the car industry just for a moment. The point of stress: if you ask a seller, what do they find difficult about the transaction, it\u2019s actually the amount of stress.<br \/>\nDo you think I just do enough to earn their fee to help overcome that stress management?<br \/>\n<b>Martin:\u00a0 <\/b>Look, the very top ones do but the overwhelming majority don\u2019t. When I\u2019m doing customer service workshops in the industry, I get people to tell stories of crappy customer service. I hear a lot about real estate. But the one that upsets them most is just like a communication during the sales process. It is a very stressful experience for a lot of vendors in that area.<br \/>\nWhat they complain about is unreturned phone calls, unreturned e-mails, and people not communicating them and giving them peace mind when they\u2019re going through something very stressful. And that\u2019s the same today as it was 30 years ago.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s interesting, isn\u2019t it, because I\u2019ve heard agents and we\u2019ve trained agents to talk about getting top fee by saying \u201cI\u2019m a good negotiator. If I can\u2019t negotiate my own fee, how can I negotiate it for you?\u201d Does that resonate with sellers?<br \/>\n<b>Martin:\u00a0 <\/b>I tell you, it is laughed at.<b> <\/b>Look. I don\u2019t think the consumer believes the lies any more. The stuff that used to be the clich\u00e9d stuff years ago, \u201cI\u2019ll get the best price for your property\u201d well, these days, everyone has the market what your property is worth not some real estate agent. Also, \u201cWe\u2019ve got <b>[3:58 inaudible]<\/b> buyers and we\u2019ve got a unique marketing program.\u201d If there was unique marketing program, it would be used by everybody. These are myths.<br \/>\nAnd this \u201cI\u2019m an expert negotiator,\u201d that\u2019s a classic one. When I\u2019m at conferences, you talk to these real estate agents and they say \u201cI\u2019m an expert negotiator,\u201d and if you say, \u201cWill you reduce your fee?\u201d \u201cCertainly.\u201d This is the rubbish that is going on.<br \/>\nWhat the consumer wants, what the vendor wants is take the stress out of this.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Okay. How can an agent do that?<br \/>\n<b>Martin:\u00a0 <\/b>Firstly, by not making promises they can\u2019t keep and not talking a lot of rhetoric. One example I\u2019ve used when I was doing stuff \u2013 it must have been maybe 15 years ago \u2013 with Elders in Western Australia. We had about 16 offices, and we found out the number one thing people hated was unreturned phone calls.<br \/>\nWhat we got the agents to say was \u201cLook, anyone can sell your property. It\u2019s a great property. The difference is how much stress you want to go to in the process. If I fail to return your phone calls during the sales period, if I fail to return your phone calls within three business hours, please deduct $200 from my fees every time I let you down. You keep score. Because if anything goes wrong during this or I\u2019m not communicating with you or I don\u2019t turn up on time to a meeting, I should suffer for that not you the customer.\u201d<br \/>\nNow back then, they were getting 3% or whatever \u2013 3% plus. Say for example, the Elders guys had a guy from Hooker saying \u201cI\u2019ll do it for 2.5%,\u201d what we trained the Elders guys to say was \u201cGo back to the guy from Hooker and ask him to give you $200 back if he doesn\u2019t return your phone calls, which he won\u2019t.\u201d Then we got them to say \u201cWhy would you believe anything else he says?\u201d<br \/>\nI got a letter a year later saying their earnings went up<b> <\/b>25% in a flat market selling peace of mind and credibility to a low-credibility marketplace. I think that\u2019s just as powerful today as it was 15 years ago.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What\u2019s the harm in a consumer asking whether an agent would actually do that?<br \/>\n<b>Martin:\u00a0 <\/b>Well, I don\u2019t think it should be an initiative coming from the consumer. The agent is the one who\u2019s selling his or her services, and they should be giving the reasons to list with them. I believe stress management is just as important a reason in who gets the listing as marketing and all these other things that the agents talk about there.<br \/>\nIn fact, for the consumer, it\u2019s the only one they can relate to in terms of how you make me feel, how efficient are you, do you keep your promises, all of those sorts of things. I want to know that you keep your promises. The trouble is even the agents who don\u2019t keep their promises still promise. So, until I eventually give you the listing, I don\u2019t know whether you\u2019re good or not.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Very thought-provoking. Always great talking to you, Martin Grunstein. You make a lot of sense. You can go to Martin\u2019s website, MartinGrunstein.com.au. Go and have a look at the blog on our website, and all his details are in there.<br \/>\nMartin, great talking to you, mate. We\u2019ll catch you again soon.<br \/>\n<b>Martin:\u00a0 <\/b>All the best to the team. Thanks, mate.<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Why regional areas are becoming more attractive\u00a0\u2013\u00a0John Lindeman<\/h2>\n<p><b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019m pleased to welcome to the show a man who I\u2019ve followed for many, many years, who speaks all around Australia as somewhat of an authority on what\u2019s happening with the property market, John Lindeman from 7steps2success.com.au. We\u2019ll tell you more about that site a little bit later.<br \/>\nJohn, welcome to the show. Thank you very much for your time.<br \/>\n<b>John:<\/b>\u00a0 It\u2019s a pleasure, Kevin, and welcome, everybody.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 John, I want to talk to you specifically about what\u2019s happening with regional markets around Australia compared to the capital city markets. We know that Sydney and Melbourne now are largely becoming very unaffordable and very hard to buy in.<br \/>\nIs that actually promoting some opportunities more so in some of those regional areas, John?<br \/>\n<b>John:<\/b>\u00a0 It is. I think regional markets are very much underrated. In Australia, we have some huge regional markets, like the Gold Coast, which has over 600,000 people. The Sunshine Coast nearly 300,000, and Newcastle has about 430,000 people.<br \/>\nThese are huge markets and they do have a lot of potential, but the problem with them is that because of the general population drift that we\u2019ve seen to capital cities \u2013 as migrants come to Australia, they like to live in the big capital cities \u2013 that you have to have a specific reason why you want to invest in a regional area, and that is that there\u2019s going to be higher growth than you would otherwise expect because in general, capital cities outperform regional areas, so you have to find these sorts of areas where demand is rising.<br \/>\nIn the case of Sydney and Melbourne, as you said, they\u2019ve become very unaffordable. The first thing I\u2019ve noticed is that a lot of buyers are being pushed into regional markets outside Sydney and Melbourne. It\u2019s what we call a ripple effect.<br \/>\nAnd that\u2019s already taken place in Sydney. Prices have moved up in Wollongong, the Central Coast, and Newcastle, and they\u2019re starting to go up further north and south of Sydney. The same thing in Melbourne, where you find that growth is now occurring in the Mornington Peninsula, Geelong, and it\u2019s extending into Ballarat and Bendigo.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I guess one of the dangers of looking at some of these regional markets is that if you go into a market that is really dominated by one or two industries, it becomes quite difficult to understand where the future lies for some of those regional areas, John.<br \/>\n<b>John:<\/b>\u00a0 These are all very large metropolitan areas. They\u2019re not capital cities, but nevertheless they are bigger than centers and there are a lot of different dynamics occurring in these markets. The main thing, of course, is the fact that they\u2019re more affordable and so people \u2013 and investors as well \u2013 tend to move into these markets because they\u2019re cheaper.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 What are some of the triggers you look for if you are looking around at one of the regional markets to decide where you should be investing? What do you look for, John?<br \/>\n<b>John:<\/b>\u00a0 I look for something that\u2019s changing, in other words, that\u2019s going to change the nature of demand in the market. That can usually be in, say, mining towns and ports where you have a boom in construction. It might be a port expansion or a new mine opening, but it can also be things like infrastructure such as roads and railways. Really, what we\u2019re seeing at the moment is some major infrastructure projects that are occurring and going to occur around Australia, and I think they will have massive effects on housing markets where they\u2019re located.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 What do you see as some of the dangers, John? What should you be aware of?<br \/>\n<b>John:<\/b>\u00a0 I think the danger with these infrastructure development projects, especially the transport ones, is that they may not actually occur. I think a good example of that is the Inland Rail Project, which was mentioned in the recent Budget.<br \/>\nThis has been on the drawing boards for about 20 years, but now the government has brought forward plans for its construction \u2013 a high-performance freight rail corridor between Melbourne and Brisbane, which will also connect South East Queensland by rail with Adelaide and Perth.<br \/>\nThis is going to have massive flow-on benefits for local industries and regional communities. It\u2019ll create thousands of jobs, and it\u2019s going to dramatically affect housing markets along the route. The risk is, of course, that it hasn\u2019t yet got underway and governments have a way of delaying or changing these projects after the announcements are made.<br \/>\nIf it goes ahead as planned, you could probably see massive increases in rent demand for towns along the way, the major towns such as Parkes,<b> <\/b>Narrabri, and Maury, near Brisbane. Oakey is another center where there\u2019s going to be massive work done. And that will lead to median house price rises as well. These are all very affordable areas right now, but you have to be sure that the construction is actually going to go ahead as planned.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 For anyone looking to invest in these regional markets, if they were to come to you for advice, John, would you suggest that they need to travel to these areas, and if so, at what stage in their discovery should they be going there \u2013 in the very early stages or once they\u2019ve done their sums?<br \/>\n<b>John:<\/b>\u00a0 I think in the construction stage, it\u2019s very much looking at rental demand \u2013 if that\u2019s rising \u2013 like in the towns I\u2019ve just mentioned. If you can see that the number of rental vacancies has fallen dramatically because of construction work that\u2019s being undertaken, then that\u2019s the first sign that growth is likely to occur.<br \/>\nBut in other areas and in other projects \u2013 and another good example is the Gold Coast Light Rail; that\u2019s going to profoundly affect housing markets all the way down through the Gold Coast to the New South Wales border \u2013 the best way to ascertain the likely effects of that is to go and have a look.<br \/>\nIf you live in Brisbane, take a trip down, look at the construction, how it\u2019s proceeding, talk to real estate agents about the likely demand it\u2019s having on housing, especially tourism and retiree markets. Doing a bit of on-the-ground research, I think, is well worthwhile in these sorts of projects.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 John, I know that you\u2019re always looking around and always looking at what\u2019s happening with the markets. If I were to ask you to give me your top three regional markets around Australia, would you be able to do that?<br \/>\n<b>John:<\/b>\u00a0 I think the main area in Australia that has huge growth potential is northern New South Wales, and that\u2019s largely because of highway duplication,<b> <\/b>which is only three years away from completion. That\u2019s having a profound effect already on rent demand in the major towns along the way, such as Ballina, Lismore, Grafton, and Coffs Harbour.<br \/>\nThese towns \u2013 according to us in our research \u2013 are going to see massive price rises occur once that highway is completed. I think they\u2019re the best areas in the whole of Australia that you can look for for investment over the next few years.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Always good talking to you, John.<br \/>\nJohn Linderman\u2019s website again is 7steps2success.com.au. You\u2019ll find out where John is speaking. You can also communicate directly with him and get a lot of great tips from that site as well.<br \/>\nJohn, thank you very much for your time.<br \/>\n<b>John:<\/b>\u00a0 Thank you, Kevin. It\u2019s been a pleasure, and I wish everyone the best of luck with their investment journey.<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Why Brisbane will not grow like Sydney and Melbourne\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Brett Warren<\/h2>\n<p><b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>We\u2019ve spoken quite often on the show in the past about how there is no one property market; there are different property markets all around Australia. Could be highlighted, I guess, when you consider just how much growth has been in Sydney and Melbourne, and then you have a look at the Brisbane market, which in itself has had steady growth but nowhere near to the volumes that we\u2019ve seen in Sydney and Melbourne. So, why is that? Why hasn\u2019t Brisbane bloomed like Sydney and Melbourne?<br \/>\nI want to ask this question because I\u2019ve read a very interesting blog article written by Brett Warren, who is the Senior Property Strategist at Metropole in Brisbane. He joins me, and I guess if anyone\u2019s going to have a feeling about how to answer that question, it\u2019ll have to be you, Brett.<br \/>\nHow are you? And welcome to the show.<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>Good. Thanks, Kevin. Thanks very much, good to be here.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Mate,<b> <\/b>I know you\u2019re a property investor yourself, and this is probably a question you\u2019ve asked yourself as well, but how would you answer it to me? As an investor, I\u2019m asking you, why hasn\u2019t the Brisbane market grown like Sydney and Melbourne?<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, it\u2019s a really good question, and obviously something that I\u2019ve looked into myself. After the GFC in 2008, which everyone had, Brisbane didn\u2019t have as much luck. As you know, in 2011, we had the floods, and from that point on, our mining boom has really hurt Brisbane\u2019s confidence. There are a few other things as well that I looked into, too.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>The numbers:<b> <\/b>I know we can always come back and look at the numbers and that\u2019s all very historic, but has that helped you understand the situation? Tell us what you found out.<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>Absolutely. Yes, like many property investors, I\u2019m an analytical type of person, so I always turn to the numbers. What I\u2019ve actually done in this case, Kevin, is gone back to the last time Brisbane was in a period of excessive growth in 2008, just before the GFC, and the numbers are considerably different to where we are now.<br \/>\nOur population growth has been slashed by more than a half. Overseas migration is down by about 70%. As you know, our unemployment rate has increased by about 2%, so there are about 62,000 more people out of work. And during that period of time, our wage growth has come back from about 4.2% per annum to only be about 2% per annum now.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What are the most important measures there? You\u2019ve given us population growth, interstate migration, overseas migration, labor, unemployment. Are there any in there that are key indicators for you?<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>Population growth, absolutely. With higher population growth, you get more demand for housing in terms of buying, but also renting.<br \/>\nIn 2008, you probably remember reading the headlines that we had almost a thousand people a week moving to Queensland from interstate. That\u2019s down by almost two-thirds, and more importantly, overseas migration is down by about 70%. They\u2019re real key factors, especially when we\u2019re talking about pushing the price of housing up and things like that.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>There\u2019s a blog article that Brett has written that we\u2019ve published on our website. Go and check it out for yourself \u2013 a lot more detail about that. But I want to get to the end of this conversation, the bottom line for you.<br \/>\nIs there light at the end of the tunnel? Have you been able to find that maybe the market has turned around a bit?<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, absolutely. I just ran some more numbers in 2016 as opposed to 2015, and the numbers are starting to turn around. Our population growth has started to head north again. We\u2019re getting more people moving from overseas and also interstate, and our unemployment rate has come down. The number of people actually getting employment is decreasing as well, which is what we want. We want more people in work, we want more people coming into Brisbane and driving those property prices upwards.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Let\u2019s have a look at the next decade. Is there anything you\u2019ve learned from the figures? And I know you can\u2019t give us any undertaking about what\u2019s going to happen over the next ten years, but what have you learned from looking at these figures, and how do you feel about what\u2019s going to happen in the next decade?<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>I\u2019m actually quite optimistic, Kevin. On the blog there, I\u2019ve put down what the Queensland median house price has actually been since 1981, and every ten years. It hasn\u2019t been as consistent with other states, and I can track back to 1991 where it was $113,000. And by the end of 2001, ten years later, it had only managed to go up to $166,000.<br \/>\nSo, there wasn\u2019t that consistent ten-year doubling effect, and the next decade actually almost tripled. That\u2019s what we can kind of draw parallels between what may potentially happen in the next decade. So, it may not get to that extent, but I\u2019m really optimistic about the next decade in Brisbane, especially if those numbers continue to perform as they are in the last year or two.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Good on you, Brett. Good talking to you, mate. And it\u2019s a great article. You can check it out at our website, just go to RealEstate.com.au. Just go into my own featured channel and you\u2019ll find it in there. It\u2019s a blog article written by Brett Warren, who is Senior Property Strategist at Metropole in Brisbane.<br \/>\nBrett, thanks again for your time.<br \/>\n<b>Brett:\u00a0 <\/b>Thanks a lot, Kevin. Good to be with you.<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Property experts could have called it too soon\u00a0\u00a0\u2013\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/featured-channel\/michael-yardney\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Michael Yardney<\/a><\/h2>\n<p><b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Well, we\u2019re hearing it now quite often that the property market has topped. Well, that\u2019s what some experts are saying. Initially, some analysts at investment bank UBS called the top of the housing market just a few weeks ago, suggesting both market activity and price growth will now moderate.<br \/>\nCoreLogic joined in on that, and they made some comments that it may just be too early to make that sort of a call. However, they did say there is a note for some caution. Well, is it a time to worry? Let\u2019s find out. Michael Yardney from Metropole Property Strategists joins me.<br \/>\nMichael, you\u2019ve no doubt read these reports. What\u2019s your take on that?<br \/>\n<b>Michael:\u00a0 <\/b>One month\u2019s statistics is a bit too soon to call the top, but Kevin, if we\u2019re honest, we\u2019ve really had an amazing couple of years in the real estate markets. It\u2019s been a dream run for many investors, particularly those who\u2019ve lived in Melbourne, Sydney, and to a lesser extent, Brisbane.<br \/>\nMoney\u2019s been cheap, the banks have been falling each other to lend you money, and as long as you bought at a reasonable location, that rising tide lifted all ships. But we are changing now. The conditions that drove those dramatic price rises over the last couple of years, they seem to be fading away currently, Kevin.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>The question for you, Michael, is where are headed?<br \/>\n<b>Michael:\u00a0 <\/b>Some commentators are suggesting that now with lower auction clearance rates and slower investor finance, that we\u2019ve hit the top of the market. Now, sure, auction clearance rates have dropped a bit in the two big cities, Melbourne and Sydney, but they\u2019re still in the 70% range, not the 80% range, and I don\u2019t think you need to worry about it until it gets to maybe around the low 60% range.<br \/>\nI think what\u2019s really happening is that we\u2019re in for a period of more moderate price growth for the rest of the year, followed by a period of stagnation where prices are going to slow down, stop, and in some areas, drop a bit.<br \/>\nBut Kevin, the sky isn\u2019t falling and we\u2019re not doomed, and property prices are not going to crash.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Michael, what\u2019s going to drive the property markets now?<br \/>\n<b>Michael:\u00a0 <\/b>On the macro level, it\u2019s going to continue to be things like our economy, interest rates, availability of credit, consumer confidence, the world economic events, what the government is going to do if it fiddles with policies, and those external influences like political influences that make us either feel confident or not, and then digging down deeper at the local level where we live, it\u2019s going to be related to our economic growth, our jobs, population growth, and of course, the old fashioned supply and demand always is going to be a big factor.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>How big a player will finance be in this whole scenario, Michael?<br \/>\n<b>Michael:\u00a0 <\/b>Kevin,<b> <\/b>I\u2019ve been investing for over 40 years, and every property cycle I\u2019ve invested through has eventually come to an end because of finance. In the old days, it used to be called a credit squeeze. Kevin, you\u2019re old enough to remember when the government induced those credit squeezes and the banks just weren\u2019t lending anyone any money. Then after deregulation, the Reserve Bank did it in a different way. What it did was hike interest rates, and every time it did that, it put an end to the cycle.<br \/>\nThis time around, Kevin, we\u2019re back to a credit squeeze. I\u2019m surprised no one else has called it that. Maybe they\u2019re not as old as me and remember that term, but ASIC has created those macro-prudential controls, so even though interest rates are low, they\u2019re tightening the screws on certain people \u2013 on investors.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>I\u2019m just wondering, Michael, if this is such a bad thing, because the Sydney and Melbourne markets, that growth seem to me to be almost unsustainable.<br \/>\n<b>Michael:\u00a0 <\/b>You\u2019re right, Kevin. I much prefer having a credit squeeze in a low-ish interest rate environment, in other words, where the average person isn\u2019t going to default on their mortgage, where businesses are not going to go bust, and it\u2019s just going to slow the market more steadily than that blunt hammer of a very high interest rate environment that affects everybody. So you\u2019re right, it\u2019s actually not a bad thing at all.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Summarize this for me, Michael. What\u2019s ahead? Give me the bottom line.<br \/>\n<b>Michael:\u00a0 <\/b>I think ahead, we\u2019re going to have a period of subdued economic growth. Our economy is doing okay, but it\u2019s not going to boom along. I think jobs growth is going to remain fragmented, with most of the permanent new job growth happening in Victoria and New South Wales. We\u2019re in for a period of lower inflation, so the culmination of all those things means we\u2019re very likely to be in for a period of lower interest rates.<br \/>\nConsumer confidence is going to be fickle. When people are uncertain, they\u2019re going to tend to stop spending, and we have local issues that are concerning us and overseas issues. I think finance is probably going to get a little bit tighter before it gets looser. Our population growth is slowing, and I think another factor that\u2019s going to slow down these markets so that we\u2019re going to head into a period of more moderate growth is less foreign investment.<br \/>\nOnly recently, I\u2019ve read that last year, there were 40,000 requests for the Foreign Investment Review Board for people from overseas buying Australian properties. This year, the forecast is for 15,000, less than half the number of foreign investors this year. That\u2019s going to affect certain segments \u2013 those new and off-the-plan properties.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>So the bottom line, Michael, is that we\u2019re in for a bit of moderate growth?<br \/>\n<b>Michael:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes. Like it or not, we\u2019ve moved on to the next phase of the property cycle; you\u2019re right. But obviously, there\u2019s still going to be some overperformers and some underperformers, so you have to find the sort of property where the demographics, the people are still going to be able to afford to pay, where they\u2019re going to have good jobs, where they\u2019re going to have rising wages, and this is likely to occur in the middle ring suburbs of our big capital cities, Kevin.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>An interesting insight there, Michael. Thank you so much for joining us today on the show. I appreciate your time.<br \/>\n<b>Michael:\u00a0 <\/b>My pleasure, Kevin.<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>What many investors overlook in a buy and hold strategy\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Cate Bakos<\/h2>\n<p><b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 A common question we\u2019re asked is \u201cIs this a good market to be buying a property, renovating it, and flipping it over, or should we be looking at buy and hold?\u201d There are different strategies, different timings, and different markets. Cate Bakos, a buyer\u2019s agent out of Melbourne has a particular bent on this.<br \/>\nHi, Cate. How are you doing?<br \/>\n<b>Cate:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019m great, Kevin. How are you?<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Good. Maybe \u201ca particular bent\u201d is not the best way to say it, but correction versus no correction, is this a time to buy and hold?<br \/>\n<b>Cate:\u00a0 <\/b>I think all the time is the time to buy and hold. That is my philosophy. It\u2019s served me well as an investor, and it\u2019s what I adopt with my clients.<br \/>\nI think trying to pick a cycle in the market is a really tricky thing, and I also think that property as an asset class is a very difficult one to make serious money out of in a short term. When you\u2019re flipping, you have things associated with the selling costs that can make it quite difficult to make some money even when you\u2019ve had a good gain and you\u2019ve created some value. So, it\u2019s not a favorite approach of mine at all.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 The market is very cyclical, and in fact, just recently, I spoke to the author of a book about creating wealth through property in any market condition. He made the point that property can be very forgiving, provided you hold on to it and it\u2019s a long-term play. Would you agree with that?<br \/>\n<b>Cate:<\/b>\u00a0 I couldn\u2019t agree more. I think that\u2019s a really good point. I\u2019ve seen properties that have been selected for a long-term hold and they might not have been the most perfect property at the time. I can certainly speak for myself in my early years. Before I was a buyer\u2019s advocate, I was buying property, and I held them.<br \/>\nI look at some of those properties now and they weren\u2019t the best properties I could have bought at the time. I\u2019d probably focused on areas I was familiar with or<b> <\/b>went for properties that I felt would perform for various reasons. But property is forgiving. They\u2019ve still performed. They\u2019ve done well. It\u2019s a really good point to make.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 In looking at the buy-and-hold strategy, are there any things that you find investors need to factor in or that they possibly could overlook?<br \/>\n<b>Cate:<\/b>\u00a0 Absolutely. I think the most important thing for buy and hold is provisioning for your holding costs and making sure that you understand the cash flows, so you know what the property\u2019s rental value is. That might be different to the rent that it\u2019s currently getting. You have to look at \u201cWhat is the reasonable and long-term rental I can anticipate on this asset?\u201d You need to make sure that that isn\u2019t likely to change, so you\u2019re not going into an area that has a really strong demand for tenants now for a short-term reason.<br \/>\nYou also need to consider some of the ongoing maintenance items and provision for them. You can\u2019t anticipate that a property will just swan along and not create any out-of-pocket implications for you with maintenance items, whether it be just regular repainting and gardening and all the rest of it or whether it\u2019s items like hot water services and upgrades to appliances.<br \/>\nLastly, I think people who are feeling nervous about interest rates and where they are and if they\u2019re in a position where a rate increase could really hurt them, they need to think about fixed rates as well.<br \/>\nSo, there are some things that people can do to mitigate the bumps in the journey.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 What sort of planning goes into when you\u2019re sitting down with someone? What is long-term for you? Is it three years, five years, ten years, or is it a lifetime?<br \/>\n<b>Cate:<\/b>\u00a0 For me, it\u2019s a lifetime. I like the idea of having the debt retired eventually and the property is an asset that\u2019s held in your estate and it\u2019s creating some passive income through rent. But for some people, long term might be 20 years.<br \/>\nI think anything less than 10 years, certainly anything less than a typical market cycle \u2013 which we all have a rule-of-thumb estimate for it being seven years; that\u2019s a very hard discussion now because our cycles have not been all that predictable. But I think anything less than 10 years is not long term at all.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Let\u2019s have a look now at reviewing your portfolio. Obviously you\u2019re not advocating that you would keep necessarily a bad performing one. And let\u2019s face it, Cate, from time to time we do make mistakes. We put something into our portfolio that\u2019s not going to perform.<br \/>\nHow often do you review, and obviously what do you do with a dud property?<br \/>\n<b>Cate:<\/b>\u00a0 It\u2019s a good question. I review all the time. I never really take the finger off the pulse. If it\u2019s a dud property, if you\u2019ve made a bad selection, and you\u2019ve worked out the cost of letting go of it \u2013 there might be losses associated there \u2013 if you can do something better with that money and if getting rid of the property enhances your own lifestyle and your sense of happiness, then it\u2019s probably a sound decision.<br \/>\nBut when you\u2019re tracking your properties closely and you\u2019re getting agitated when they\u2019re not giving you the same growth as others in your portfolio, you actually have to accept that cycles are different for different areas, different dwelling types, and it\u2019s not necessarily a dud performer if it hasn\u2019t done anything in a few years.<br \/>\nYou really do have to look at its future long-term growth prospects, the growth that it might be giving you, and any maintenance issues that could become a lot more serious. They are things that can instigate a decision to sell.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Would you bring someone in to help you make that decision, and if so, who would that person or those people be?<br \/>\n<b>Cate:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s a good question. Some people chat to their financial planners or their accountants. I certainly have people coming and chatting to me about their portfolio when they\u2019re looking at rationalizing it \u2013 which one do they let go \u2013 or just getting a good understanding of which properties were good selections from the start.<br \/>\nA qualified property investment advisor could potentially help, and I think an accountant or a planner who is property-centric and interested and understands property is also a really good start.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I think you make a very good point there, and that is that someone with a financial background who is actually an investor \u2013 because I\u2019ve seen some pretty awful advice given by financial planners or financial experts who don\u2019t understand property and don\u2019t understand how a property can actually change from month to month or even year to year, Cate.<br \/>\n<b>Cate:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s right. They have to not carry any bias. They have to be able to look at it quite holistically and not have a preference for a particular side of town, for example, or the newness of an asset.<br \/>\nIf you\u2019re looking at an asset and judging it on the back of its potential tax benefits, I think that\u2019s a disaster waiting to happen. I\u2019ve seen some people sell really good properties and then buy young properties or brand-new properties in the quest to save some tax, and I think that\u2019s not a good angle.<br \/>\nYou have to look at their long-term growth drivers and the cost of holding it. Think about what your long-term plan is for that property and also how much time is it taking away from you if it\u2019s a problematic property with either maintenance issues or a bad tenant?<br \/>\nSo, there are quite a few questions to ask, and it\u2019s not about tax benefits.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Buyer\u2019s agent Cate Bakos. It\u2019s great talking to you, Cate. Thanks for your time.<br \/>\n<b>Cate:<\/b>\u00a0 Thank you, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Highlights from this week: The reasons why Brisbane can\u2019t match the growth happening in Sydney and Melbourne The properties that should held for a long time and the ones that should not be The areas that are set to boom and why What you can&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":11739,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,11,13,24],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-11737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-shows","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Moderate growth but still tough times ahead + What is ahead for the SEQ market + Areas set to boom \u2013 why and when - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/moderate-growth-but-still-tough-times-ahead-what-is-ahead-for-the-seq-market-areas-set-to-boom-why-and-when\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Moderate growth but still tough times ahead + What is ahead for the SEQ market + Areas set to boom \u2013 why and when - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Highlights from this week: The reasons why Brisbane can\u2019t match the growth happening in Sydney and Melbourne The properties that should held for a long time and the ones that should not be The areas that are set to boom and why What you can...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/moderate-growth-but-still-tough-times-ahead-what-is-ahead-for-the-seq-market-areas-set-to-boom-why-and-when\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-05-18T17:00:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"rolanrush\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"rolanrush\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"32 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/moderate-growth-but-still-tough-times-ahead-what-is-ahead-for-the-seq-market-areas-set-to-boom-why-and-when\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/moderate-growth-but-still-tough-times-ahead-what-is-ahead-for-the-seq-market-areas-set-to-boom-why-and-when\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"rolanrush\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/384a57ac9e52cb9bf19896cb15eaa52d\"},\"headline\":\"Moderate growth but still tough times ahead + What is ahead for the SEQ market + Areas set to boom \u2013 why and when\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-05-18T17:00:53+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/moderate-growth-but-still-tough-times-ahead-what-is-ahead-for-the-seq-market-areas-set-to-boom-why-and-when\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":6367,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/moderate-growth-but-still-tough-times-ahead-what-is-ahead-for-the-seq-market-areas-set-to-boom-why-and-when\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"\",\"keywords\":[\"podcast\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Kevin Turner\",\"Kevin's Update\",\"Latest Stories\",\"Shows\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/moderate-growth-but-still-tough-times-ahead-what-is-ahead-for-the-seq-market-areas-set-to-boom-why-and-when\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/moderate-growth-but-still-tough-times-ahead-what-is-ahead-for-the-seq-market-areas-set-to-boom-why-and-when\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/channels.realty.com.au\\\/realtytalk\\\/moderate-growth-but-still-tough-times-ahead-what-is-ahead-for-the-seq-market-areas-set-to-boom-why-and-when\\\/\",\"name\":\"Moderate growth but still tough times ahead + What is ahead for the SEQ market + Areas set to boom \u2013 why and when - 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