{"id":11651,"date":"2017-05-03T17:34:20","date_gmt":"2017-05-03T07:34:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=11651"},"modified":"2017-05-03T17:34:20","modified_gmt":"2017-05-03T07:34:20","slug":"why-hasnt-brisbane-boomed-like-sydney-and-melbourne-brett-warren","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/why-hasnt-brisbane-boomed-like-sydney-and-melbourne-brett-warren\/","title":{"rendered":"Why hasn\u2019t Brisbane boomed like Sydney and Melbourne!!??!! – Brett Warren"},"content":{"rendered":"

As a Brisbane investor myself, it has been a difficult 5 years watching both Sydney and Melbourne property prices take off, as I am sure it has been for many others.
\nThere is always the teasing headline every so often in the media and from experts that it is Brisbane\u2019s time to shine and this is the year for Brisbane to \u201cBoom\u201d!
\nLike clockwork though, Brisbane has pretty much racked up a tick over 4% growth per annum, year upon year.
\nHere is a clearer snapshot of what the last 5 years have looked like across our nation;
\n\"\"
\nYou would have no doubt heard on several occasions, some of the very valid reasons why it has played out this way;
\nToward the end of 2008, we faced the Global Financial Crisis<\/b>, along with the rest of the world. A major economic shock.
\nI remember in late 2010 the Brisbane market started showing good signs of recovery, only to receive the devastation of the Brisbane Floods<\/b> in January 2011.
\nOnce again, confidence started to recover a few years later, before the Mining Boom<\/b> was over and Queensland faced a significant employment downturn with a large part of its economy exposed to Mining in the northern parts of our state.
\nTourism<\/b> is another key for our Economy and with a record high Australian dollar, visitor numbers have also been down, leading to a shortfall of revenue for local businesses.
\nMy search for Answers<\/b>
\nBeing a numbers man myself, I always turn to the data to provide the detail I crave. One of my favourite sayings is that\u2026. \u201cnumbers never lie\u201d<\/i>
\nI started by comparing where we are now, with the last time Brisbane had a property boom (2008) and all the important variables that play a major role in higher capital growth.
\nHere is what I found;<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Population Growth<\/b>
\nPopulation Growth increases demand for housing in terms of buying but also renting. In 2015, we saw less than half <\/span>the number of people moving to Queensland than we did in 2008.
\nI remember seeing headlines back in 2007-08 that there were more than 1,000 people per week moving to Queensland from interstate, that is now down by almost two thirds.
\nBut the biggest downturn seen was in Overseas Migration, slashed by about 70%! Perhaps to some extent due to that high Australian Dollar.
\nEmployment<\/b>
\nWhile the Labour Force Participation has remained relatively unchanged, the alarming statistics for me are an increase of our Unemployment Rate by approximately 2%<\/span> resulting in 62,000<\/span> more people being without work.
\nWage Growth<\/b>
\nAdding to our Employment misery, wages growth has been virtually cut in half from a peak of about 4.2% back in 2008 to a steady decline over the years to be now only 2% per annum;<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/b>
\nWhat the numbers tell me<\/b>
\nFirstly, the significant decrease in our population growth has seen a reduction in the demand for housing, put simply we do not have the numbers to drive up property prices like we did in 2008.
\nA further reduction in demand has also been caused by more than 62,000 people being without work, which in turn has led to a significant decrease in the amount of money being injected into our economy and revenue from taxes etc.
\nLoss of jobs and subdued wage growth also leads to uncertainty and can affect confidence in our market place negatively.
\nSo, with significantly less population growth, more people unemployed and lower wage growth it was abundantly clear why we have not scaled the heights of our southern neighbours with property prices.
\nA light at the end of the tunnel<\/b>
\nFollowing on from the lows of 2015, are we now starting to see the early signs of a recovery for those key figures?;
\n\"\"
\nOur population growth has started to rise again and more people are finding work, while wage growth and confidence remain subdued to some extent.
\nThe Australian Dollar has also started to return to some normality having recently reached fresh 6 year lows<\/span>;
\n\"\"
\n 
\nWhere to from here?<\/b>
\nIn the short term, I am almost certain capital growth in Brisbane will remain pretty much the same as where we are today.
\nUntil we start to see more of an upswing in our population growth, an increase in our Labour Force Participation and rising Wages, capital growth will remain \u201cas is\u201d at around that 4-5% per annum mark to round out this decade.
\nThis will have resulted in a disappointing decade for property prices in Queensland, performing well below the average.
\nBelow is how the last 40 years have played out in Queensland;<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The Next Decade<\/b>
\nWhile we cannot predict the future, going by the past, Brisbane has never had the traditional doubling effect or averages that we have seen in other states.
\nWe could draw parallels between this most recent decade and the 1991 \u2013 2001 decade where capital growth was also very low and for similar reasons.
\nWill we see what saw in the decade that followed, when property prices played catch up and resulted in significantly<\/span> higher capital growth from 2001 \u2013 2011, even with a GFC?
\nWhile I am certain there will be further economic turmoil at some stage, I am optimistic that the next decade will be significantly stronger than this decade.
\nThe question is – Will we see the same level of growth as the decade between 2001 \u2013 2011? Only time will tell, but I sense a real opportunity for investors during this time.
\nFor me it is all about the numbers.
\nIf we can continue to see further strengthening of our population, wages and employment, combined with a weaker Australian dollar, a repeat of 2001 \u2013 2011 may be a possibility.
\nPerhaps there will come a time when that elusive Brisbane BOOM will become a reality!
\n\"\"Brett Warren is the Senior Property Strategist at Metropole Properties Brisbane and uses his 17 plus years of property investment experience to advise clients how to build their own portfolio and how to grow their wealth through property.<\/p>\n

He has built his own substantial portfolio by following strong investment fundamentals that he now educates his clients with. Brett is not a theorist and he puts into action what he teaches.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As a Brisbane investor myself, it has been a difficult 5 years watching both Sydney and Melbourne property prices take off, as I am sure it has been for many others. There is always the teasing headline every so often in the media and from…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":11664,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[34,10,11,36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-property-investment-topic"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy hasn\u2019t Brisbane boomed like Sydney and Melbourne!!??!! - Brett Warren - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/why-hasnt-brisbane-boomed-like-sydney-and-melbourne-brett-warren\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why hasn\u2019t Brisbane boomed like Sydney and Melbourne!!??!! - Brett Warren - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As a Brisbane investor myself, it has been a difficult 5 years watching both Sydney and Melbourne property prices take off, as I am sure it has been for many others. 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