{"id":11417,"date":"2017-04-24T03:00:13","date_gmt":"2017-04-23T17:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=11417"},"modified":"2017-04-24T03:00:13","modified_gmt":"2017-04-23T17:00:13","slug":"negative-talk-has-impact-on-the-market-dr-andrew-wilson","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/negative-talk-has-impact-on-the-market-dr-andrew-wilson\/","title":{"rendered":"Negative talk has impact on the market – Dr Andrew Wilson"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dr Andrew Wilson<\/strong> says he has never seen so much focus on speculation about interest rates, conversations about negative gearing and concern about a property bubble.\u00a0 The result is a reduction in consumer confidence which is impacting the market.
\nTranscript:\u00a0<\/strong>
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Joining us with an update on the Australian property market, the chief economist at The Domain Group, Dr. Andrew Wilson.
\nHi, Andrew?
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>Morning, Kevin. How are you today?
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Mate, I\u2019m fantastic, thank you. A lot happening in the market we should talk about, Andrew. I guess any conversation about property would have to center around interest rates, but gee, there\u2019s a lot of talk about negative gearing, and there\u2019s just a lot happening, a lot of conversation about the property rate right now. Is it unprecedented?
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s certainly been getting a lot of attention, hasn\u2019t it, Kevin? I can\u2019t really remember a period where we have had so much focus particularly on property markets and interest rates. Of course, the banks have raised interest rates over the past few weeks and are likely to continue to increase them \u2013 only marginally \u2013 but certainly I think it\u2019s playing into the mindset, perhaps, of buyers and sellers.
\nWe had some quite sobering retail data come out February from the ABS. I do think that given that unemployment is at a year high at the moment and a number of capitals have unemployment levels significantly higher than the way they were a year ago, I still think that there is a likelihood that we\u2019ll get an official cut in interest rates sooner rather than later. I think even if the banks continue to increase rates, I think that will facilitate a cut from the Reserve Bank even more significantly.
\nI think that even though we had rates on hold, unless the economy improves, we\u2019re likely to get a cut sooner rather than later. We do have the Budget coming up next month, of course, Kevin, and sometimes the Reserve Bank does act in May just before the budget to preempt any issues that might occur there, so we might even get a surprise cut next month.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>All this talk about a bubble too, it just goes on and on and on. It\u2019s obviously doing a lot to impact consumer confidence, and it just makes me wonder why they\u2019re doing this. Then we\u2019re going to have to turn around and the possibility you just raised there of lowering interest rates again. It just seems like they\u2019re all over the place.
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>And they paint themselves in a corner, Kevin, of course. If they are talking of housing bubbles and the need to cool housing markets and at the same time, the economy is going back, that\u2019s what the Reserve Bank is there for \u2013 to use monetary policy to maintain economic balance and particularly where we have a slow-growing economy to actually encourage growth.
\nWe still have interest rates higher than basically anywhere else anyway, and I do think that as you said, they\u2019re painting themselves into a corner. It becomes a conundrum for them. And it\u2019s a very mixed economic basket, really, around the country.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>It\u2019s probably <\/b>going to get more challenging for them too, because I would have thought that a lot of people are going to start exiting that over-priced Sydney and Melbourne market and start to move into South East Queensland. South East Queensland, to me, seems to be one of the only markets in Australia that\u2019s not in this high inflated price range.
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>You\u2019re spot on, Kevin. We\u2019re seeing early signs of that now. The latest migration data has shown a turnaround into South East Queensland. Of course, migration fell away quite sharply with the end of the resources boom and the end of the fly-in, fly-outs, but that\u2019s now starting to turn around. I think you\u2019re spot on the money.
\nA lot of that is affordability perception, and of course, the Brisbane median house price is half that of Sydney. It\u2019s not just the prices that are so much lower; it\u2019s also the bang for your buck in terms of what you do get when you pay, because Brisbane is still quite a livable low-rise environment. The economy in Brisbane is actually doing as well in terms of unemployment as Melbourne is. I think we will see a turnaround in that and, as you said, driven by affordability as well as the usual lifestyle attractions that South East Queensland offers.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Thanks, Andrew. See you, mate.
\nAndrew:\u00a0 <\/b>Okay, thank you, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr Andrew Wilson says he has never seen so much focus on speculation about interest rates, conversations about negative gearing and concern about a property bubble.\u00a0 The result is a reduction in consumer confidence which is impacting the market. 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