{"id":10492,"date":"2017-02-16T01:00:21","date_gmt":"2017-02-15T14:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=10492"},"modified":"2017-02-16T01:00:21","modified_gmt":"2017-02-15T14:00:21","slug":"a-century-of-change-mark-mccrindle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/a-century-of-change-mark-mccrindle\/","title":{"rendered":"A century of change &#8211; Mark McCrindle"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A century ago the average Aussie was a 24-year-old male farmer. Fifty years ago it was a 29-year-old male office clerk. But today it&#8217;s a 38-year-old female sales assistant.\u00a0 Demographer <strong>Mark McCrindle<\/strong> paints a wonderful picture of how our lives have changed in the last 100 years and how that has molded the future of housing.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Transcript:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Let\u2019s have a look at the Australian population \u2013 what\u2019s happened to them over the last 100 years? An interesting report written by demographer, social researcher, author, and futurist Mark McCrindle, who joins us on the line.<br \/>\nGood morning, Mark.<br \/>\n<b>Mark:\u00a0 <\/b>Good morning, Kevin.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Nice to be talking to you again. Now, 100 years ago, the average Aussie was a 24-year-old male farmer \u2013 probably not a real surprise \u2013 but what happened after that? How did they change?<br \/>\n<b>Mark:\u00a0 <\/b>Well, some of the key demographics are that we\u2019ve got larger in terms of our total size, we\u2019ve got older in terms of our average age, and we actually have more women than men in Australia at the moment.<br \/>\nSo, if we were to totally define the average Aussie statistically, it would be a 37-year-old woman named Rebecca, because that was the most common name in 1980 \u2013 and 1980 was the Generation Y began being born. Generation Y are not just the younger generation now; they\u2019re right in the middle. You have two generations older than them and two generations younger.<br \/>\nSo yes, a 37-year-old woman. It\u2019s amazing when you think we\u2019ve gone from an average age in the 20s to now the late 30s in the span of a couple of generations, but that\u2019s the aging that we\u2019re seeing.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What does Rebecca do?<br \/>\n<b>Mark:\u00a0 <\/b>She would be a sales worker. The sales sector, those working in sales, is one of the largest in Australia, and for a woman, that\u2019s the most common. So, she\u2019d be in that role. She\u2019d be working full time \u2013 three quarters of Australians employed work full time. For a woman, probably about 31 hours a week, a male about 41 hours a week. There\u2019s a little bit of variation there depending on who\u2019s the main breadwinner of the home.<br \/>\nThe average full-time worker would take home $60,000 if they\u2019re working less than the 40 hours. Might be a bit less than that, but that would be economics of it, and that would be the gross salary before tax.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What about housing requirements? How has that changed over the last, say, 50-odd years, Mark?<br \/>\n<b>Mark:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, very significantly. Particularly over the last century, we\u2019ve moved strongly from a more regional representation to now very much an urban one \u2013 four in five Australians are living in the capital cities \u2013 and increasingly densified there.<br \/>\nThis average Australian would be living in a three-bedroom detached home, of which they probably have around $400,000 equity in that home. But that is starting to change, as well, and it\u2019s increasingly likely that it might be a medium- or high-density home. We\u2019re getting closer and closer to that transition point.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Would the size of the mortgage be growing, as well? I think you said the average equity was $400,000.<br \/>\n<b>Mark:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, exactly. If we look at the average capital city house price, it depends on which capital you\u2019re looking at, but in some of the capitals, this equity is not even half of the cost of the home. In others, it might be over the halfway point.<br \/>\nIf you bring it down to a household perspective, just to look at what they have to pay down that mortgage in any year, at a household level, after tax is about $88,000. That\u2019s the average household, which has more than one income. So after tax, that\u2019s what we have to live on and pay down that mortgage. So, it is increasingly a challenge to get ahead in terms of the equity in that home.<br \/>\nWomen have really increased participation in the paid work labor force and have closed that gap \u2013 not fully closed, but certainly closing the gap a bit compared to the male participation. Not quite as high as male participation, but getting there.<br \/>\nInterestingly, when you look at the total hours worked \u2013 which includes a measure of both the paid work outside the home and then the unpaid work, which is everything from the domestic duties, outdoor work around the home, the childcare role \u2013 the average woman is working more hours than men. That\u2019s about 60 hours a week in total.<br \/>\nSo, women are very hardworking in Australia, not only domestically but closing that pay gap, as well, and actually are more formally educated than men in Australia. They\u2019re more likely to have a university degree in Australia than their male counterpart.<br \/>\nAnd normally, what follows educational achievement is income and leadership and career trajectory, so we\u2019re seeing women really move ahead in both the earnings and the leadership role.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Hand in hand with that, I guess, would account for the fact that we now have more cars in the home. As women become more independent and make their own way, I guess the share of household duties and all those things are really creating somewhat of a change in how we live and how we work, aren\u2019t they?<br \/>\n<b>Mark:\u00a0 <\/b>That is exactly right. If we think about the average household, it has at least two cars, because more than half of all households have two cars or more. On average, every registered car in Australia is driving 14,000 kilometers per year.<br \/>\nIt\u2019s pretty phenomenal how connected we are with our cars, how much mobility we have, and of course, the household with at least one car, which the average household has \u2013 and a pet, as well, by the way. They really do need the cars to get around.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Things like speaking English in home, of course, we\u2019ve seen a lot of people\u2026 And I think you mentioned it in the report about Haymarket in Sydney for instance, 88% of the population were born overseas. All of these things shape how we live, how we talk, and how we communicate.<br \/>\n<b>Mark:\u00a0 <\/b>Exactly. We\u2019re far more diverse than ever before from a cultural perspective. Australia is home to more than 300 different ancestries. That\u2019s what we trace ourselves back to. And we\u2019re fast closing in on the point where we\u2019ll actually have more households that have a parent born overseas than don\u2019t.<br \/>\nAt the moment, 46% of households \u2013 so not quite half \u2013 have at least one parent born overseas. We\u2019re getting close to that point where at least half will have someone born overseas. 28% of us, so more than one in four of us ourselves were born overseas, so very culturally diverse.<br \/>\nAnd over the last three decades, that migration pattern has shifted from European nations. Now in the top five, we have China, India, and Vietnam as the most likely countries of birth of those Australians born overseas. So, a shift around the world in terms of Asia and their connection there.<br \/>\nAustralia is this dynamic land that is changing phenomenally, and the demographics really represent that.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>How are we doing physically? Is it my imagination, or are we getting taller?<br \/>\n<b>Mark:\u00a0 <\/b>We are getting taller. The average man is now 178 centimeters tall, weighs 85 kilos. So, we\u2019re getting taller, we\u2019re getting a little bit heavier, as well.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>I\u2019m a bit above the average there.<br \/>\n<b>Mark:\u00a0 <\/b>This is a challenge. Something has to give. We\u2019re working longer, we\u2019re juggling more roles, we\u2019re carrying more debt, there\u2019s a bit more stress, and maybe we\u2019re not being as active as we used to in those physical roles.<br \/>\nNow, we\u2019re more likely to have joined a gym. These days, we\u2019re more aware nutritionally of what are the right foods for us, so we\u2019re more educated in that sense. But we\u2019re less likely to be \u2013 as you said earlier \u2013 the farmer that was the case a while back on average.<br \/>\nWe\u2019re more likely to be a white-collar worker, a clerical, an office worker, a managerial type. We\u2019re just not getting as much mobility as part of our natural day, so the average male and female has a body mass index \u2013 that BMI \u2013 of just on the 25 mark, which is officially declared as overweight, anything 25 or above. So we\u2019re just tipping the scales in the start of that overweight category on average.<br \/>\nBut we\u2019re doing a lot of right things. The average Australian is exercising three times a week. We\u2019re getting 7.2 hours of sleep in a night \u2013 not quite the eight hours, but the medical experts say that that\u2019s adequate. And the majority of Australians have health insurance, so we are looking after ourselves. Perhaps a little bit more to do, but we\u2019re on track.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Project ahead. What do you reckon we\u2019re going to be looking like and what sort of houses will we be living in in the next 50 years?<br \/>\n<b>Mark:\u00a0 <\/b>I think over the next half century, we\u2019ll change that balanced, and it will more likely that when we do this again, talking about someone\u2026 And in 50 years, it will be maybe Oliver and Charlotte; those are emerging names today. And they\u2019ll be most likely living in a more densified dwelling, perhaps a townhouse or an apartment.<br \/>\nThey will have a bit of equity, but a lot more people will be renting not owning, and choosing that lifestyle. They\u2019ll be moving ahead, certainly more geographically mobile, and their careers and where they study will not just be here in terms of nationally defined, but globally defined.<br \/>\nI think Australia is in this great position \u2013 our location in the world, our diversity, the cultural connection, the relaxed way of life that we have, and yet the hard working and formally educated background we have places us in a great place in the future to continue to be those world influencers. So, I think the future trajectory looks pretty good.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>You\u2019re talking there about more people renting, and I tend to agree with you, but it brings about the question who is actually going to own the house? Is it going to be more social housing, or will there be an even greater divide between the haves and the have-nots? We\u2019re already seeing this divide between the haves and the have-nots, a smaller number of people owning a larger portfolio of houses.<br \/>\n<b>Mark:\u00a0 <\/b>Yes, there is going to be in that, the investor there with the property ownership. And a lot of people as choice renters. They\u2019re not renting because they can\u2019t afford to buy, but this emerging generation will just be happy to rent because they want the flexibility that that provides, and they\u2019ll be investing in other categories perhaps, or you\u2019ll just have different ownership forms. Someone\u2019s name might not be on the title because their parents have helped out, or maybe siblings have come together to own that place. So, it\u2019s just a new way of funding the growing cost of housing. Still giving the security,<br \/>\nAustralians are really rusted onto that Aussie dream of home ownership, so that\u2019ll still be strong in our psyche, but as the costs increase, there are new ways of covering the finance.<br \/>\n<b>Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Mark, always fascinating talking to you. Thank you for giving us your time this morning. Mark McCrindle, demographer, social researcher, author, and futurist. We\u2019ll talk to you again soon. Thanks, Mark.<br \/>\n<b>Mark:\u00a0 <\/b>Thanks a lot, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A century ago the average Aussie was a 24-year-old male farmer. Fifty years ago it was a 29-year-old male office clerk. But today it&#8217;s a 38-year-old female sales assistant.\u00a0 Demographer Mark McCrindle paints a wonderful picture of how our lives have changed in the last&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":10493,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,10,11,13,25,27],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-10492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buying-a-property-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-sponsored-channels","category-trends-topic","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A century of change - Mark McCrindle - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/a-century-of-change-mark-mccrindle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A century of change - Mark McCrindle - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A century ago the average Aussie was a 24-year-old male farmer. 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