{"id":10312,"date":"2017-01-23T01:00:04","date_gmt":"2017-01-22T14:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=10312"},"modified":"2017-01-23T01:00:04","modified_gmt":"2017-01-22T14:00:04","slug":"sydney-caught-me-by-surprise-john-lindeman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/sydney-caught-me-by-surprise-john-lindeman\/","title":{"rendered":""Sydney caught me by surprise" – John Lindeman"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nWhen we asked John Lindeman<\/strong> this time last year what he thought was ahead for 2016, he predicted that Sydney would slow down and we would see a more defined 2 market situation. So, how has he reacted to that?<\/p>\n

<\/h4>\n

Transcript:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 As we check in with another one of our experts who we asked this time last year about what they thought about 2016, my next guest is John Lindeman.
\nJohn, welcome to the show and thanks again for giving us your time.
\nJohn:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s fine, Kevin. Hello, everyone.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 John, just to refresh your memory, I\u2019m just going to play a small portion of what you said this time last year. Here\u2019s what you had to say then.
\nJohn:<\/b>\u00a0 I think in some parts of the country, it will be very, very healthy indeed and in others there will be a time of continuing price correction, so I really see two markets going in different directions.
\nI think that the good one will continue to be New South Wales. I think Sydney is pretty much over its high growth \/ record growth it\u2019s had over the last few years, but I don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to be a bubble, so the growth will probably slow down there. But I think New South Wales is where the money is.
\nIt\u2019s a budget that\u2019s very healthy, a booming economy, and there\u2019s a lot of infrastructure development occurring in Sydney and New South Wales generally, which are some of the biggest infrastructure development projects we have got going at the moment. I think they\u2019ll continue to drive the regional house markets in New South Wales upwards over the next few years.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 John, just looking at your comments there, what happened in Sydney? Did that surprise you, that that growth continued the way it did do during 2016?
\nJohn:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes. I didn\u2019t think it would continue that sort of momentum for another year. That I think surprised everyone.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 It certainly did.
\nJohn:<\/b> \u00a0And of course, the fact that Brisbane hasn\u2019t really done much, that was another prediction that I think was a bit unexpected.
\nIn general, I think 2016 was just a year of unexpected results. We had Footscray winning the AFL and Cronulla winning the NRL. And then we had poor old Malcom nearly losing the election and then of course, David Cameron losing Brexit and poor old Hillary losing the presidential election.
\nI think it\u2019s just really thrown everything into disarray and people are quite worried about what\u2019s going to happen in terms of the property market in the future.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Do you think we can expect more of the unexpected this year?
\nJohn:<\/b>\u00a0 I think so, but I don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to be in the property market. Certainly the Trump effect, that\u2019s a big unknown. China and the USA seem to be heading for some sort of trade war. And there could be a financial crisis unfolding in Europe.
\nBut when I look at what\u2019s happened over the last, say, 10 years, we\u2019ve had one crisis after another \u2013 there was Iceland and then Ireland and then Spain and Portugal, Italy, Greece, Britain voted to leave the European Union \u2013 and yet all that time our property markets continued to grow, especially Sydney and Melbourne. So it hasn\u2019t really affected us in any substantial way at all.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Your comment that I played just a moment or two ago, you mentioned there that there would be two markets. Is it exactly two markets, and is that capital city and regional? How do you define that?
\nJohn:<\/b>\u00a0 I think the two markets, you have Sydney and Melbourne and then you have pretty much the other capital cities. The other capital cities are suffering mainly because of the ending of the mining boom. Brisbane and Perth in particular have been hurt by that.
\nIt\u2019s interesting when you look at Melbourne\u2019s growth, and I mentioned the 10-year growth was about 125% growth in 10 years, and that was the best performer of any capital city. When you look at what the average growth is, it was 8.3%, which is exactly what the annual average growth rate for Australian property has been since 1901. So even that growth is not exceptional.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Did any surprises come out of the regional markets for you, John?
\nJohn:<\/b>\u00a0 I predicted that there would be a lot of regional growth in New South Wales because of the huge amount of money that the state government has from stamp duty, and they\u2019re spending it all on duplicating the Pacific and Prince\u2019s Highways. That\u2019s reducing your traveling time. It\u2019s making it a lot safer for tourists and retirees. I predicted that that growth would occur, and it has been quite substantial both north and south of Sydney.
\nI think the same sort of thing is likely to happen in Melbourne. With the huge growth we\u2019ve had in Melbourne, it\u2019ll start to ripple out. It\u2019s already hit Geelong and it\u2019ll probably go to Bendigo and Ballarat, as well. They would be the areas I\u2019d be looking at.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 John, what are your predictions for New South Wales and I guess more particularly for Sydney for 2017? Do you see that continuing to grow?
\nJohn:<\/b>\u00a0 I think it has to slow down. I also said in that last comment that it wasn\u2019t a bubble, it wasn\u2019t going to bust, and I still hold to that. This growth is not exceptional. As I said, it\u2019s about the average long-term growth rate for Australian housing, so there\u2019s no cause for panic. But it is a bit of cause for concern in the other states because that growth hasn\u2019t flowed through in a way that it has in previous booms, so I think that they\u2019ll catch up over the next few years.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Do you think that outstanding growth in Sydney has overshadowed somewhat some reasonable growth in Brisbane? I know you said that it was a bit disappointing, but it did grow; it didn\u2019t come back. Do you think that we expect too much out of Brisbane?
\nJohn:<\/b>\u00a0 No I don\u2019t. I think everyone just expected that Brisbane would be the next city to boom, and it hasn\u2019t done that. But it\u2019s very much due to the fact that there\u2019s an oversupply of properties at the low price end of the market. You have all the mining construction workers are now busy building houses in the outskirts of Brisbane. We\u2019ve seen some huge developments occurring there. You can buy a new house in a place like near Bribie Island for just over $300,000. It\u2019s an extraordinary opportunity for first-home buyers to move into the market, and the same goes for Perth.
\nBut at the high end of the market, it\u2019s fine. There\u2019s no oversupply and there\u2019s growth occurring in both Brisbane and Perth when you look at the higher priced properties.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 John, look forward now to this time next year. What do you think we\u2019re going to say about 2017? Maybe just a summary of some of the points you\u2019ve made today.
\nJohn:<\/b>\u00a0 I think we\u2019ll see that there\u2019ll be a strong ripple effect coming out of both Sydney and Melbourne, that that\u2019ll continue, so there will be a lot of growth in the regional areas in Victoria and New South Wales. Also there\u2019s a good chance that the mining boom could start up again, and so there could be a bit of a bounce back in some of these areas that have been disparaged, like Moranbah and so on. I think that they\u2019ve hit the bottom and it\u2019s time for them to start moving up.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 John, always great talking to you. Thank you very much for your time. John is from Property Power Partners. We look forward to catching up with you during the year, John.
\nJohn:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, I look forward to that, too. Thanks very much, Kevin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  When we asked John Lindeman this time last year what he thought was ahead for 2016, he predicted that Sydney would slow down and we would see a more defined 2 market situation. So, how has he reacted to that? 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