{"id":10276,"date":"2017-01-19T01:00:03","date_gmt":"2017-01-18T14:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=10276"},"modified":"2017-01-19T01:00:03","modified_gmt":"2017-01-18T14:00:03","slug":"where-is-the-smart-money-going-in-2017-andrew-mirams","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/where-is-the-smart-money-going-in-2017-andrew-mirams\/","title":{"rendered":"Where is the smart money going in 2017? – Andrew Mirams"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nAndrew Mirams<\/strong> was another one of our experts we asked about what he saw ahead at this time last year and he predicted unit defaults. Find out what is he saying about 2017.
\n <\/p>\n

Transcript:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Earlier in the show I was talking to Cate Bakos, and we asked her to reflect on the comments she made about this time last year about what it would be like at the end of 2016 \/ start of 2017, which is where we are right now. Well, here\u2019s another one, because this time last year, I spoke to Andrew Mirams from Intuitive Finance, and Andrew joins us once again.
\nAndrew, Happy New Year. Good to have you on the show. Nice to talk to you, mate.
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Good day, Kevin. Happy New Year to you, too, and all the listeners.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Okay. Let\u2019s remind you what you said this time last year about the 2016 market.
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Melbourne and Sydney have enjoyed a couple of years of pretty good markets. Obviously, Sydney\u2019s had a couple of great years. Melbourne still appears to be really strong, and that\u2019s underpinned by our population growth and employment, which still seems to be quite strong in our state. It seems to be similar in Sydney, and the market seems to be still okay there.
\nAnd I think that probably Brisbane might be something where some money starts to go because people look at fundamentals and think, based on a yield, it appears to be undervalued, and there might be some opportunities in Brisbane in 2016.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Gee, mate, I thought you were pretty spot on there. You highlighted Brisbane as the place for opportunity. Did it reach the sort of heights you thought it would, Andrew?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 It probably didn\u2019t. But, again, if you compare that again across to Melbourne and Sydney, who have had two or three years of extraordinary growth, it probably did nothing in Melbourne and probably Sydney and Brisbane. The markets are going to start to disjoint themselves and there are going to be markets within markets with the development boom that\u2019s happening across those three states.
\nSydney is probably still a little under supplied, but I think Melbourne and Brisbane potentially in those development markets might have some grief coming into 2017 and 2018 even.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 What do you think that will do to some of the more established markets in, say, Melbourne and Brisbane? Will they continue to improve, do you think?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 I think there\u2019s always a flight to quality. I think the apartment market has been quite strong over the last few years. Now, just the supply and demand issue, I think, is going to see that dampen quite a bit, and there\u2019ll be a flight back to land and where people can actually develop or hold the land. As we know buildings, depreciate whereas land over the long term tends to appreciate as it becomes scarcer and harder to get ahold of.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes. We mentioned earlier in the show, too, about the APRA restrictions during the year. You\u2019re much closer to that than anyone, being in the finance world. What\u2019s your impressions of that? What impact did it have on the market, and did you see it coming?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Look, it\u2019s been happening for 18 months or so now \u2013 probably two years behind the scenes \u2013 and there\u2019s still some work to go. I don\u2019t think we\u2019re going to see it get any easier anytime soon.
\nKevin, we\u2019re at record low interest rates, and there has to be some caution that goes with that, I guess, because we don\u2019t want people over-committing and things like that. So I think APRA\u2019s still got a bit to play out. They\u2019re now talking about commercial land and development finance and just making sure developers aren\u2019t over-extended as well as our consumers and people not getting their fingers burnt.
\nI think we\u2019ll continue to see the banks incrementally raising interest rates, even if we were to get maybe an RBA decrease. I\u2019m not sure that we will, but there\u2019s still some pundits saying we might get another one or two quarter-percent decreases through 2017. I\u2019m not sure, I\u2019m not convinced, but I think they\u2019re at such a low rate now that we won\u2019t see much change.
\nBut I think you\u2019ll see the banks, as they\u2019ve done through 2016, continue to move and differentiate between owner-occupier lending, which started to wane at the end of 2016\u2026 It started to drop off and the investors really started to come back into the market. And I think that what that is is opportunity: those who have money and opportunity to buy are still interested in buying into the markets and taking advantage of good opportunities.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Andrew, are you seeing any defaults, particularly in that off-the-plan marketplace? Anyone can\u2019t settle?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, it is happening. I think 2017 and 2018 is really when a lot of these developments in the larger scale, a lot of them are going to come to market, as well.
\nThere are a couple of things though, Kevin. Your Australian investors are still going to be able to get money subject to the APRA restrictions, but through 2016, we also saw the banks withdraw pretty much finance to non-residents, and they\u2019ve even restricted quite significantly finance availability to our Australian ex-pats overseas, depending on where they\u2019re earning their income and how they\u2019re assessed.
\nA lot of those people are the ones who have bought these off-the-plans. Non-residents get their Foreign Investment Review Board approval, they have to buy new properties. And I suspect now with the issue of getting money into the country, particularly out of China, and then also being able to access finance over here, we might see more and more defaults happen through the course of this year and next. It\u2019s just going to put a damper on everyone in that market because if there are fire sales of apartments in blocks, then that\u2019s actually what the value becomes.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You\u2019re helping investors all around Australia. Where\u2019s the smart money going? What are they talking to you about? Which markets?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 I still think in Melbourne and Brisbane, it\u2019s certainly now wanting to get hold of land, so it\u2019s getting the opportunity for that inner ring, good opportunities to develop in the future or put a second property on or not that high-density living, but now that medium-density living. Houses will be always be popular with land.
\nSydney is still attractive for the apartment market because they\u2019re still not building enough to meet the market. There\u2019s that inner ring and then the outer west and places like that that have a real over-supply of the units out there.
\nWhere people want to live in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane is still what\u2019s going to be popular, where possible, I think through 2017, wherever you can, if you can buy something on a tiny bit of land \u2013 whether it be a house, a townhouse, a unit, or something like that \u2013 I think is going to be the most popular selection.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Okay. Sum it up for me, mate. What do you think you\u2019re going to be saying this time next year about 2017?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 I think we still will have had a pretty reasonable market, while we still have people in employment and low interest rates and there\u2019s a supply and demand. There are probably less properties for sale that are highly desirable, which is creating that supply and demand issue.
\nSo I still think our markets will be in a pretty good state by the end of 2017. Let\u2019s hope so, anyway.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Good on you, mate. Nice talking to you. Andrew Mirams from Intuitive Finance. We\u2019ll talk again soon, mate.
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Thanks, Kevin. All the best.
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Andrew Mirams was another one of our experts we asked about what he saw ahead at this time last year and he predicted unit defaults. Find out what is he saying about 2017.   Transcript: Kevin:\u00a0 Earlier in the show I was talking to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":10278,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,34,10,11,13,36,17,22,25],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-10276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buying-a-property-topic","category-finance-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-property-investment","category-research-topic","category-sponsored-channels","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nWhere is the smart money going in 2017? - Andrew Mirams - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/where-is-the-smart-money-going-in-2017-andrew-mirams\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Where is the smart money going in 2017? - Andrew Mirams - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  Andrew Mirams was another one of our experts we asked about what he saw ahead at this time last year and he predicted unit defaults. 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