{"id":10268,"date":"2017-01-16T01:00:51","date_gmt":"2017-01-15T14:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=10268"},"modified":"2017-01-16T01:00:51","modified_gmt":"2017-01-15T14:00:51","slug":"more-concern-over-unit-growth-and-prices-cate-bakos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/more-concern-over-unit-growth-and-prices-cate-bakos\/","title":{"rendered":"More concern over unit growth and prices – Cate Bakos"},"content":{"rendered":"

This time last year, I asked some of our experts what they thought we would be saying about 2016 at the start of 2017.\u00a0 I check back in with them and play back their comments. This time last year Cate Bakos<\/strong> was concerned about APRA, unit vs house price differences and she thought the unit market might improve. So is she still concerned?<\/p>\n

Transcript:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 This time last year, I asked a number of our experts around Australia what they thought we\u2019d be saying at this time about 2016. I\u2019m going to play a number of those for you today in the show, and I\u2019m going to start it off with Cate Bakos, who is a buyer\u2019s agent out of Melbourne. Cate, hello and happy New Year.
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 Happy New Year to you, too, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Do you remember what you said this time last year? Just in case you don\u2019t, let me refresh your memory. This is what you said. What do you think we\u2019re going to be saying about the property market this time next year, Cate?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 I have two answers here, Kevin, and\u2026
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You\u2019re going to hedge your bets, aren\u2019t you?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 I am. Keep my crystal ball in good shape. I will hedge my bets. I think that the APRA changes have a lot to do with how our market has finished up in 2015, and unless we have some loosening of bank scrutiny and criteria for investment lending, I think that we\u2019ll see a bit more of a divide between our auction clearance rates in our capital cities for houses versus units and also unit price growth. I\u2019d like to optimistically say that we\u2019ll see a rebound in clearance rates and value growth for our unit markets, but the skeptical side of me or the concerned side of me thinks that divide will become greater.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Cate, I thought you were pretty spot on. You must be proud of that.
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, I am proud of being able to pick that one. There were certainly some signs there, but it is always a challenge when someone says what could identify a year or what will be a theme \u2013 and in this case, it certainly was lender scrutiny and that disparity.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I think the mention you made there about those APRA changes have really been quite dynamic, and I really don\u2019t think we\u2019re through the tunnel yet, Cate. I\u2019d be interested to get your opinion on that. I do think we\u2019re going to see a number of defaults during 2017 and even 2018.
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 I agree, unfortunately. I wish I had a better outlook on that front, but I think aside from just the APRA changes, we also have some lender changes. We\u2019re seeing that with the appetite that lenders have for various types of properties and extending on not just from units but also more challenging types of properties, whether they\u2019re quirky or not fitting that perfect profile as a lending security. I think buyers need to be really careful this year \u2013 and next year \u2013 about what they sign up for, and they need to make absolutely sure that regardless of the pre-approval they feel they have in place, the lender is actually going to have an appetite for the type of property they\u2019re picking.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 A lot of talk, too, about an oversupply of units, particularly in the Brisbane market and especially in the Melbourne market. You\u2019d probably be seeing a bit of that. Your feeling about the unit market \u2013 you said that you had hoped it would improve. What are your thoughts now?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 I don\u2019t think that it will improve in the inner ring areas where we already have an over-supply. There are some hallmarks that buyers and investors can look for to shed light on whether there is a bit of a higher risk. The first port of call should be checking out the vacancy rates. All they need to do is look at what\u2019s advertised for rent. If there\u2019s an overwhelming number of properties that are available that are all quite similar and in abundance, then that should be ringing some warning bells. I don\u2019t see the overall unit market improving for Melbourne in the short term, and I think if buyers are keen to secure a unit, particularly if it\u2019s an owner-occupied unit, they really need to focus on the areas where they\u2019re not in such abundant numbers.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You\u2019ve also talked about the house versus unit price separation. What\u2019s your view on that now we\u2019re 12 months down the track? Cate:<\/b>\u00a0 It certainly has been extremely noticeable. We\u2019re finding that houses in those really highly contested, competitive environments \u2013 particularly the inner ring and some middle ring areas where train and a community feel and a village atmosphere is present \u2013 they\u2019re really drawing a crowd. We\u2019re finding that cashed-up singles, couples, and families, are all fighting hard for those types of properties, and unfortunately, our limited numbers of properties for sale \u2013 so our supply \u2013 is not as great as our demand. So we\u2019ve really had an upwards pressure placed on prices, and I don\u2019t see that easing in those particular areas.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Okay, fast-forward this time next year. Here we go again. Get that crystal ball out, Cate. What do you think you\u2019re going to be saying about 2017 at the start of 2018?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 I think we will still have continued house price growth, particularly in Melbourne, but I don\u2019t think it will be quite as extreme as 2016. I think there\u2019ll be a little bit of caution out there in relation to lender scrutiny. Also we\u2019ve had prices shooting through the roof for houses but salaries haven\u2019t been keeping up at that same pace, so eventually affordability really does become the question. I think that we will still see some price growth but not as dramatic. I also feel that units will be problematic still, and I think that news of defaults and of people not being able to settle unit purchases \u2013 particularly off the plan, longer sunset-type purchases \u2013 will give people a little bit of a scare. So there will be a fair bit of information in the media, I think, and I believe that investors who are targeting units will probably think twice.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Let\u2019s have a look at a national perspective. What do you think will be the hot markets around Australia during 2017?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s a good question. We\u2019ve seen house price growth in cities that haven\u2019t been well documented for house price growth over the last five years, but we\u2019ve seen them come into the equation just over the last 12 months. I\u2019ve talked about Adelaide and Hobart, but it doesn\u2019t necessarily mean that they\u2019ll continue to soar and it doesn\u2019t necessarily mean that they\u2019re perfect investment areas. I think that our Eastern seaboard major cities will continue to perform in the housing market, and I think that Perth and Darwin will still be doing it a little bit harder into 2017. Being a Melbourne specialist and being a little bit biased, I\u2019ve certainly got a focus on Melbourne and I think that our housing market will continue to perform.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Any regional areas stand out for you, Cate?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 If I\u2019d chat about Victoria \u2013 which is my patch and that\u2019s where I\u2019m licensed and where I know \u2013 I think that our regions will continue to perform. Geelong has been an interesting one. I have an eye on Geelong and I have had for a while. It\u2019s undergone a lot of change since the auto industry has disappeared. There was a lot of upset in Geelong at the time. But what we have seen is that Geelong is becoming a bit of an extension of Melbourne for a lot of people who can commute or can base themselves in Geelong or can work locally. We\u2019ve seen some really dramatic and beautiful changes around the city in the waterfront precinct and areas like Newtown and Geelong West, East Geelong, and South Geelong. They\u2019re doing really well. They have been doing well for a little while, so I think Geelong deserves to be in the spotlight for all the right reasons.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Cate Bakos, all the best for 2017. We will definitely talk to you more during the year, but we\u2019re going to check in with you again at the start of next year for sure.
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 Kevin, I look forward to it.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 We will talk to you as the year goes on. Cate Bakos, thank you so much for your time.
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 Thank you.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This time last year, I asked some of our experts what they thought we would be saying about 2016 at the start of 2017.\u00a0 I check back in with them and play back their comments. This time last year Cate Bakos was concerned about APRA,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":10269,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33,10,11,13,36,17,25],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-10268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-case-studies-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-property-investment","category-sponsored-channels","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nMore concern over unit growth and prices - Cate Bakos - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/more-concern-over-unit-growth-and-prices-cate-bakos\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"More concern over unit growth and prices - Cate Bakos - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This time last year, I asked some of our experts what they thought we would be saying about 2016 at the start of 2017.\u00a0 I check back in with them and play back their comments. 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