{"id":10263,"date":"2017-01-13T10:00:48","date_gmt":"2017-01-12T23:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=10263"},"modified":"2017-01-13T10:00:48","modified_gmt":"2017-01-12T23:00:48","slug":"the-experts-predictions-for-2016-how-accurate-were-they","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/the-experts-predictions-for-2016-how-accurate-were-they\/","title":{"rendered":"The experts predictions for 2016 \u2013 how accurate were they?"},"content":{"rendered":"

We are going to kick the year off with some very sound advice from Michael Yardney<\/strong><\/a> as he talks about the 12 important lessons for property investors in 2017. Smart investors are always learning and undertaking personal development. The property markets are dynamic, so dynamic in fact that you never quite \u201csolve the puzzle\u201d because the puzzle is always getting reshuffled in front of you right when you think you\u2019ve got it solved. As Michael says\u00a0 \u201cThe more I learn, the less I seem to know\u201d.
\nThis time last year, I asked some of our experts what they thought we would be saying about 2016 at the start of 2017. I check back in with them and play back their comments. This time last year Cate Bakos<\/strong> was concerned about APRA, unit vs house price differences and she thought the unit market might improve. So is she still concerned?
\nAndrew Mirams<\/strong> was another one of our experts we asked about what he saw ahead at this time last year and he predicted unit defaults. Find out what is he saying about 2017.
\nMeighan Hetherington<\/strong> shares a great story about how she discovered the fascination of becoming a property investor and how she now shares that passion with other investors.
\nBrad Beer answers a complex question from Grant Campbell<\/strong> about property depreciation and capital gain.
\nYou will find us at iTunes under podcasts as Real Estate Talk. Listen there for free, leave a review which helps us grow and tells us what you like and how we can improve the show. Don\u2019t forget to subscribe at the site as well \u2013even if you do get the show through iTunes – so that we can tell you about the bonus offers we make to subscribers. Your questions are welcome through the site as well.
\n <\/p>\n

Transcripts:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Is this a way to reduce capital gains tax? – Brad Beer<\/h2>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I have a question now from Grant Campbell. Thank you very much for your question, Grant. It\u2019s directed at Brad Beer from BMT Tax Depreciation. He joins me on the line.
\nGood day, Brad.
\nBrad:<\/b>\u00a0 Hi, Kevin. Great to be here.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Now, this question from Grant, I know you\u2019re going to have to give me a fairly general answer to this, but he does go into a bit of detail here. It\u2019s about depreciation and capital gains tax.
\nIf depreciation is added back to the cost base, this should reduce the capital gain and therefore the capital gains tax on sale. For example, if I claim $5000 depreciation for five years, that\u2019s $25,000, and the property shows a $50,000 capital gain, then the gross capital gain is $25,000. As it\u2019s been owned for five years there is a 50% reduction, that is $12,500 would be added to my income for the year when the property was sold. Is this correct?
\nNow, I understand, Brad, you might have to give a generalized answer to this, but can you cover that for us?
\nBrad:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, Kevin, definitely. It\u2019s a regular question that we do get about the capital gain being added, creating additional capital gains tax at the end. The simple fact is that yes, it does, and it means that the capital gains tax liability based on some of the claims will be higher.
\nNow, the building allowance component and the plant and equipment component are actually traded slightly differently, firstly. Without going into the complete detail on that, even aside from that, looking at the fact that what we get to do with deductions on the way through while we own this property is claim these deductions at our full marginal tax rate. When we sell a property and we pay a capital gains tax after 12 months, then we actually pay capital gains tax at half of our marginal tax rate.
\nAnd when you actually calculate this out in individual scenarios, most of the time \u2013 and there are a few dependencies, your tax rate and things here \u2013 what happens is that you actually get a deduction of more money than what you have to pay out in additional capital gains tax at the end because you make deduction on the full marginal tax rate, you pay capital gains tax at half the marginal tax rate.
\nAnd you also have then the benefit of the cash while you do it. You can put that into an offset account and pay less interest on your property, for example, or use it for something else. And you have the benefit of the time value of money.
\nMoney today is worth more than money in five years\u2019 time because of inflation. So if you can get the money in your hand today, even if it means you\u2019re going to have a tax liability that may be higher in the future, the fact is under this type of scenario, it\u2019s less than what you put in your pocket at that time usually and you actually get to use the money.
\nWe\u2019ve actually run and done some case studies on different scenarios \u2013 and they\u2019ll be available on the website or in Maverick or we\u2019ll find them if you want them \u2013 so that you can actually see exactly what happened in different scenarios. We\u2019ve done those and they\u2019re a good way to learn, and you can read in some much more detail about exactly why, how, and what it actually means to that investor.
\nA good gauge, Kevin, is sometimes someone comes to us after those they\u2019ve sold a property and what we\u2019ll do then is say, \u201cWell, you have the capital gains tax thing to think about, we think your deductions will be roughly this. If you get the accountant to crunch the numbers of what it means for you in cash, then is it still worth doing the depreciation schedule?\u201d And usually we\u2019ve pretty much always still do it because they get more money than what they lose in capital gains tax anyway.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You mentioned Maverick there. Now, that\u2019s your newsletter. How can someone get onto that mailing list so that we can make sure we get that, Brad?
\nBrad:<\/b>\u00a0 The Maverick newsletter, we write it a couple of times a year. We write case studies on lots of things. At our website, bmtqs.com.au, join Maverick \u2013 very easy \u2013 or send us an email and we\u2019ll join you to that. The back issues are available or send me an email and we can actually send you the capital gains tax one specifically if you\u2019d like to read that.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 If you want to go to the website, there\u2019s always the link on Real Estate Talk. Just go and click on that there, or the website is bmtqs.com.au.
\nBrad, thank you very much. I know that\u2019s a complex situation, but you handled that very well there for Grant. And Grant, thank you very much for sending that in.
\nBrad, thanks again for your time.
\nBrad:<\/b>\u00a0 Excellent. Thanks very much, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n

More concern over unit growth and prices – Cate Bakos<\/h2>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 This time last year, I asked a number of our experts around Australia what they thought we\u2019d be saying at this time about 2016. I\u2019m going to play a number of those for you today in the show, and I\u2019m going to start it off with Cate Bakos, who is a buyer\u2019s agent out of Melbourne.
\nCate, hello and happy New Year.
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 Happy New Year to you, too, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Do you remember what you said this time last year? Just in case you don\u2019t, let me refresh your memory. This is what you said.
\nWhat do you think we\u2019re going to be saying about the property market this time next year, Cate?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 I have two answers here, Kevin, and\u2026
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You\u2019re going to hedge your bets, aren\u2019t you?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 I am. Keep my crystal ball in good shape. I will hedge my bets. I think that the APRA changes have a lot to do with how our market has finished up in 2015, and unless we have some loosening of bank scrutiny and criteria for investment lending, I think that we\u2019ll see a bit more of a divide between our auction clearance rates in our capital cities for houses versus units and also unit price growth.
\nI\u2019d like to optimistically say that we\u2019ll see a rebound in clearance rates and value growth for our unit markets, but the skeptical side of me or the concerned side of me thinks that divide will become greater.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Cate, I thought you were pretty spot on. You must be proud of that.
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, I am proud of being able to pick that one. There were certainly some signs there, but it is always a challenge when someone says what could identify a year or what will be a theme \u2013 and in this case, it certainly was lender scrutiny and that disparity.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I think the mention you made there about those APRA changes have really been quite dynamic, and I really don\u2019t think we\u2019re through the tunnel yet, Cate. I\u2019d be interested to get your opinion on that. I do think we\u2019re going to see a number of defaults during 2017 and even 2018.
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 I agree, unfortunately. I wish I had a better outlook on that front, but I think aside from just the APRA changes, we also have some lender changes. We\u2019re seeing that with the appetite that lenders have for various types of properties and extending on not just from units but also more challenging types of properties, whether they\u2019re quirky or not fitting that perfect profile as a lending security.
\nI think buyers need to be really careful this year \u2013 and next year \u2013 about what they sign up for, and they need to make absolutely sure that regardless of the pre-approval they feel they have in place, the lender is actually going to have an appetite for the type of property they\u2019re picking.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 A lot of talk, too, about an oversupply of units, particularly in the Brisbane market and especially in the Melbourne market. You\u2019d probably be seeing a bit of that. Your feeling about the unit market \u2013 you said that you had hoped it would improve. What are your thoughts now?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 I don\u2019t think that it will improve in the inner ring areas where we already have an over-supply. There are some hallmarks that buyers and investors can look for to shed light on whether there is a bit of a higher risk.
\nThe first port of call should be checking out the vacancy rates. All they need to do is look at what\u2019s advertised for rent. If there\u2019s an overwhelming number of properties that are available that are all quite similar and in abundance, then that should be ringing some warning bells.
\nI don\u2019t see the overall unit market improving for Melbourne in the short term, and I think if buyers are keen to secure a unit, particularly if it\u2019s an owner-occupied unit, they really need to focus on the areas where they\u2019re not in such abundant numbers.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You\u2019ve also talked about the house versus unit price separation. What\u2019s your view on that now we\u2019re 12 months down the track?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 It certainly has been extremely noticeable. We\u2019re finding that houses in those really highly contested, competitive environments \u2013 particularly the inner ring and some middle ring areas where train and a community feel and a village atmosphere is present \u2013 they\u2019re really drawing a crowd.
\nWe\u2019re finding that cashed-up singles, couples, and families, are all fighting hard for those types of properties, and unfortunately, our limited numbers of properties for sale \u2013 so our supply \u2013 is not as great as our demand. So we\u2019ve really had an upwards pressure placed on prices, and I don\u2019t see that easing in those particular areas.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Okay, fast-forward this time next year. Here we go again. Get that crystal ball out, Cate. What do you think you\u2019re going to be saying about 2017 at the start of 2018?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 I think we will still have continued house price growth, particularly in Melbourne, but I don\u2019t think it will be quite as extreme as 2016. I think there\u2019ll be a little bit of caution out there in relation to lender scrutiny. Also we\u2019ve had prices shooting through the roof for houses but salaries haven\u2019t been keeping up at that same pace, so eventually affordability really does become the question.
\nI think that we will still see some price growth but not as dramatic. I also feel that units will be problematic still, and I think that news of defaults and of people not being able to settle unit purchases \u2013 particularly off the plan, longer sunset-type purchases \u2013 will give people a little bit of a scare. So there will be a fair bit of information in the media, I think, and I believe that investors who are targeting units will probably think twice.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Let\u2019s have a look at a national perspective. What do you think will be the hot markets around Australia during 2017?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s a good question. We\u2019ve seen house price growth in cities that haven\u2019t been well documented for house price growth over the last five years, but we\u2019ve seen them come into the equation just over the last 12 months. I\u2019ve talked about Adelaide and Hobart, but it doesn\u2019t necessarily mean that they\u2019ll continue to soar and it doesn\u2019t necessarily mean that they\u2019re perfect investment areas.
\nI think that our Eastern seaboard major cities will continue to perform in the housing market, and I think that Perth and Darwin will still be doing it a little bit harder into 2017. Being a Melbourne specialist and being a little bit biased, I\u2019ve certainly got a focus on Melbourne and I think that our housing market will continue to perform.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Any regional areas stand out for you, Cate?
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 If I\u2019d chat about Victoria \u2013 which is my patch and that\u2019s where I\u2019m licensed and where I know \u2013 I think that our regions will continue to perform. Geelong has been an interesting one. I have an eye on Geelong and I have had for a while.
\nIt\u2019s undergone a lot of change since the auto industry has disappeared. There was a lot of upset in Geelong at the time. But what we have seen is that Geelong is becoming a bit of an extension of Melbourne for a lot of people who can commute or can base themselves in Geelong or can work locally.
\nWe\u2019ve seen some really dramatic and beautiful changes around the city in the waterfront precinct and areas like Newtown and Geelong West, East Geelong, and South Geelong. They\u2019re doing really well. They have been doing well for a little while, so I think Geelong deserves to be in the spotlight for all the right reasons.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Cate Bakos, all the best for 2017. We will definitely talk to you more during the year, but we\u2019re going to check in with you again at the start of next year for sure.
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 Kevin, I look forward to it.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 We will talk to you as the year goes on.
\nCate Bakos, thank you so much for your time.
\nCate:<\/b>\u00a0 Thank you.
\n <\/p>\n

12 valuable lessons for 2017 – Michael Yardney<\/a><\/h2>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 As we welcome you back to the shows for 2017, my good friend Michael Yardney<\/a> will be joining us again this year.
\nHi, Michael.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Hello Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Great to be back with you again in a brand new year. Michael, I read a really interesting article that you wrote that I wanted to deal with first up in the show because I think there are so many great points in it: the important lessons that all property investors should remember this year.
\nWould you mind taking us through those?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Sure, Kevin. Every year is a time for learning and personal development. I think one of the great things about being involved in the property market is putting all the bits of the puzzle together. Yes, even though I\u2019ve been involved in property for over 40 years, I did learn some new things, and I guess I relearned some lessons that I learned the hard way many years ago, as well, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 What\u2019s the first lesson, Michael, you\u2019d like to tell us about?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Maybe the first one should be don\u2019t let emotions drive your investment decisions. We know that market sentiment is a key driver of our property cycles and it\u2019s one of the reasons the markets over-react. They overshoot during booms and they get a bit too depressed during slumps. So it\u2019s important never to get too carried away when the market is reacting one way or another because letting emotions drive your investments is a surefire way to disaster.
\nWe know each boom sets itself up for the next downturn, just as each downturn paves the way for the next boom. So take advantage of the good times that are going to be ahead in 2017, but be prepared for the next phase of the property cycle, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, and just on that point, too, Michael, that leads us into the second one, which was take a long-term perspective. I guess if you take the lessons from the first point you made there, that would naturally follow on, wouldn\u2019t it?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Very much so. Residential real estate is really not a get-rich-quick scheme, so don\u2019t try and do it that way. Take a long-term perspective, and don\u2019t let short-term influences affect your long-term decision-making, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I remember the last show for last year, Michael, you said to us that one of the big stumbling blocks for this year would be finance, and you make that as the third point, that property investment is a game of finance rather than a game of real estate.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Very much so. A lot of investors who had equity in their properties last year had difficulty getting refinance because APRA tightened the credit extension. You weren\u2019t able to get more credit because of changing serviceability criteria.
\nOne of the lessons is have a smart, investment-savvy finance broker as part of your team to help you through the maze, but the other is to make sure you only own investment-grade properties, good properties, because this will ensure that you can maximize your borrowing capacity, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Point number four in your article, Michael, was a lesson that we saw come home time and time again last year, and that is that there is no one property market.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 That\u2019s an important lesson, Kevin, that I learned many years ago but very much was to the forefront the last couple of years where it really was a two-horse race with Melbourne and Sydney leading the<\/i> property market as a lot of people talk about. But there isn\u2019t even one Sydney property market or one Melbourne property market. The top end performs differently to first-home buyers, so our property markets are segmented by location but also by the type of property and by price points.
\nI believe in this current year now, our new year, it\u2019s likely that both Melbourne and Sydney will again outperform \u2013 but not all segments of those markets. I\u2019d be avoiding the new and off-the-plan segments of the market. You\u2019re right, Kevin, there\u2019s not one property market.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 In fact, reading the article, too, Michael, you make the point that there are something like a quarter of a million properties for sale in Australia, but how many of those are investment grade, which is actually the fifth lesson you talk about. Could you take us through what makes an investment grade property?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Sure. Any property can be an investment property, Kevin. You kick out the owner, you put a tenant in, and it\u2019s an investment. But not all properties make good investments, again, as we said a minute ago, because there are multiple markets.
\nIn my mind, an investment-grade property is one that appeals to a wide range of more affluent owner-occupiers, which means it\u2019ll always be able to sell later if you choose to, and one that\u2019s got a level of scarcity. It\u2019s a property that\u2019s in the right location and one that has got good prospects of long-term capital growth. It\u2019s a property that has street appeal and offers security, again, because owner-occupiers like that.
\nI like properties that have a high land-to-asset ratio because it\u2019s the land component \u2013 not how big the land is or how much land there is, but the value of the land under your apartment even \u2013 that goes up in value. I also like investment properties to which you can add value.
\nIf one puts all those characteristics into all those quarter of a million or so properties for sale, in my mind, currently less than 2% of properties would be what I\u2019d be comfortable to call investment grade. In other words, don\u2019t just buy any property and hope that the value of the property is going to increase, Kevin.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>I\u2019m talking to Michael Yardney from Metropole Property Strategists, and these are the 12 important lessons that all property investors should remember in 2017. We\u2019re about halfway through, Michael.
\nYou and I have talked many times over the years about your five-stranded approach, which is your system. How important is it that we have a system?
\nMichael:\u00a0 <\/b>Kevin, to be honest, almost anyone can make money during a property boom because the market covers up most mistakes. But when the market turns \u2013 as it did at the end of the mining boom, as it did during the Global Financial Crisis, as it does regularly on us and surprises us \u2013 what happens is many investors without a system find themselves in trouble.
\nWarren Buffett said a rising tide lifts all ships, but he also said that you only find out who\u2019s swimming naked when the tide goes out. In other words, if you don\u2019t follow a system that works in all market conditions, you\u2019re likely to get caught naked when the market changes. I think it\u2019s a critical factor of success in property investment, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Point number seven you make \u2013 and once again this is another lesson that came back time and time again last year \u2013 is the get-rich-quick schemes or the investors who want to make fast money. Has that been a mistake that you see many investors make, Michael?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes it is, and let me make the first prediction on your show for this year, for 2017. There\u2019s going to be a new swag of people coming out and filling our inboxes with ways of getting rich quickly in property.
\nI think the lesson from previous cycles is that residential real estate is a fantastic way of transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient. So don\u2019t think you\u2019re going to give up your day job quickly. It takes a couple of property cycles \u2013 10 or 15 years \u2013 to build a substantial asset base in real estate, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 What was that great saying from Warren Buffett?
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Wealth is the transfer of money from the impatient to the patient, one of Warren Buffett\u2019s great sayings.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 And one of the ones I\u2019ve heard you mention many times.
\nMichael, number eight: beware of doomsayer predictions. Do you think we\u2019re going to get more of those this year? That\u2019s a dumb question because I know we are going to.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 I remember your great interviews a couple of years ago with Harry Dent, who was so sure how the property market was going to crash by the middle of the year, and last year, you had people on from overseas, as well.
\nEvery year, there are these overseas gurus who tell us why our property values are going to plummet. Unfortunately some people have missed out on the opportunity of developing their own financial independence because they listened to the messages of these doomsayers.
\nOn the other hand, a small group of Australians have ended up becoming financially independent because the value of the properties that they bought when everyone else said they were silly kept doubling in value, Kevin.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Over Christmas and the New Year period, I had a couple of weeks off, Michael, and I picked up your latest book, which I think is fabulous \u2013 your Guide to Investing Successfully<\/i>. The thing that occurred to me in reading that book takes me to point number nine, and that is that you have to treat property investment like a business. In reading your book, that\u2019s very much the message that comes through time and time again, Michael.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, Kevin. Thank you. I guess the reason is that successful businesspeople have a different head space, a different mindset. They are accountable, they don\u2019t blame others, and they take responsibility. Sure, they have a good team around them, they have some good advisors around them, they don\u2019t try and do it all on their own, but they take financial responsibility for their investments \u2013 and that\u2019s what you should do as a successful real estate investor.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I did some segments recently, Michael, for a company who wanted to get some tips on real estate, and I made the comment then that 25 years ago would have been a great time to invest. The second best time to invest would be right now, which takes us to the next lesson, and that is that there\u2019s always a reason not<\/i> to invest.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, Kevin. When I first started investing I tried to do it counter cyclically because that\u2019s what I read, so I thought, \u201cAha, this is a good year not<\/i> to invest or maybe this is a better year to invest.\u201d And I realized that every year brings its own set of crises and there are always reasons not to invest.
\nYou can go back as far as you like in history, Kevin, there are always issues occurring that would give you a reason to sit on the sidelines. One of the worst mistakes investors make is that they see this news as a reason not to get involved.
\nI\u2019d take advantage of the opportunities any bad news brings and just buy the next investment property when you are ready financially and when you can afford it. As long as you buy what we spoke about a moment ago \u2013 an investment-grade property \u2013 and allow the cycle to work its magic, you\u2019ll be ahead.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019m always constantly amazed and impressed, too, when I go to one of your seminars and I can see people \u2013 very successful investors who are in your team \u2013 they come back year after year after year because they are always continually learning, which takes us to the next point, and that is about learning, Michael.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 I think the point I\u2019m talking about is that you know less than you think you know. When I first started off, Kevin, I thought I was smart. One of the worst things a beginning investor can do is get it right the first time, which is what I did, because you think you\u2019re smarter than you are. But the market will soon teach you some lessons, won\u2019t it, Kevin?
\nThe big lesson is that I know much less than I think I know. And if you don\u2019t remember that, the market will soon humble you. So always continue learning.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 The final point \u2013 and I\u2019m going to quote you now, Michael, because I\u2019ve often heard you say this \u2013 is that any problem that money can solve isn\u2019t really a problem. This comes about the confusion between money and wealth.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 I think when I first started off, I was chasing money because I came from a poor background. I\u2019m sure a lot of other people are thinking that money equates to wealth. I heard somebody very clever say many years ago, true wealth is what you\u2019re left with when they take away all your money or all your property or all your shares.
\nI became a lot happier when I came to realize that money and wealth are very, very different things. Money is really important in those areas where it\u2019s important in your life, and it\u2019s not at all important in those areas where it\u2019s not important.
\nTrue wealth is your family, your friends, and your health \u2013 there\u2019s no use having all this if you don\u2019t have the health to enjoy it with \u2013 your spirituality, having the right head space and the mindset, and to me also being able to contribute back to society.
\nKevin, that\u2019s 12 lessons I want to share with you this year. But hopefully when we discuss this again at the beginning of 2018, I\u2019m going to be even smarter, and maybe I can come up with 13 lessons next year.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Oh goodness. Okay, that\u2019ll be fantastic. Great talking to you again, and thank you and thanks for your continued support. We look forward to working with you during 2017. Thanks, Michael.
\nMichael:<\/b>\u00a0 My pleasure, Kevin.
\n <\/p>\n

Sharing a passion for property – Meighan Hetherington<\/h2>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019m going to feature an interview now with someone I haven\u2019t spoken to for quite some time, Meighan Hetherington, who is a buyer\u2019s agent from Property Pursuit \u2013 PropertyPursuit.com.au.
\nMeighan, happy New Year. Welcome to the show.
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 Happy new year, Kevin. It\u2019s so good to talk to you again.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, it\u2019s been a while.
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 It has been. It\u2019s been busy.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Well, that\u2019s good. I want to talk to you about the market and about a number of things actually, but I\u2019m really interested to hear from you about your own philosophy. I know you\u2019re a believer in property. Why did you get involved in property investment? What started all that off?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 It was actually back when I was at uni, and my father had a really strong interest in it. He just was a little bit risk-averse and actually didn\u2019t take any action, but it instilled in me that interest in how to make money from property and how to research property and how to make it work for me.
\nIt was back when I\u2019d just finished university, I\u2019d got my first full-time job, and I said to my brother and my father, \u201cLet\u2019s do this. Let\u2019s get a property going.\u201d And we did our first one together.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Those conversations around the kitchen table, did that frame that in your mind \u2013 hearing there about your dad talking but not necessarily taking any action?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, and I think it\u2019s one of the reasons that I really like the work that we do. It helps people take what might be an idea or a research phase that they\u2019re in and actually take it through to completion and build a portfolio or buy a new home.
\nSo that actual next step of having the confidence to take the action, I think that was the thing that I really wanted to make sure that I got started on quite young. And I gave up a lot to do that. I didn\u2019t do any overseas travel and I really cemented myself in Brisbane by making that first purchase, but something that was really important to me was to get that financial stability quite young.
\nKevin:<\/b> \u00a0Tell me about that first deal with your dad and your brother. How did it come about? Where was it?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 It was in Gordon Park, about five and a half kilometers north of the CBD in Brisbane. At that time, really that was considered a bit of the outskirts of Brisbane. This was in 1998. I was renting a property across the road with a couple of housemates and I kept saying to my dad, \u201cThat\u2019s the kind of property I want to buy.\u201d
\nIt was across the road. It was the high side of the street. It was an old workers\u2019 cottage that clearly hadn\u2019t had any work done to it for about 80 years. Eventually it actually came up for sale, so it was a deceased estate. The sign went up, and the next day, I put an offer in.
\nIt moved quite quickly from then. There were a lot of things that we did wrong on that first purchase and a lot of things that I learned. I think that collection of experiences has been quite valuable to me.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Did you get into that with a view to turning it over, or do you still own it?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 No, I actually turned it over. I was working in corporate at the time, and when I got transferred to Melbourne, I sold that in its entirety to my brother. We were at 50\/50 ownership in it, and my dad had put his house up as the equity so that we could borrow all of the funds to purchase it. We released his equity quite quickly. We did some renovations and were able to release his portion of it.
\nI sold it to my brother, and my brother sold it on the open market actually when I was a real estate agent I think in 2002. The view was to hold it, but I just wasn\u2019t financially in a position where I could do that and live in another state.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Did he give you the listing?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Well done. That\u2019s good. He\u2019d have to, wouldn\u2019t he? He\u2019d never be forgiven.
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 He had no choice.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Interesting to hear you say right at the start of our conversation there about the sacrifice you made. You didn\u2019t travel overseas. What were some of the things that you did do then to get into the property market?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019ve never been a very good saver. I have always spent the money that comes into my account when I\u2019ve made it. So I had to change my mindset a little bit to make sure that I had the funds to pay the mortgage and also the renovations that we wanted to do.
\nI did a lot of the work myself, a lot of the painting and scraping and sanding and all of that non-technical trade work. I did the physical nature of that myself, and we saved a lot of money that way. And I rented rooms to other people so that we could get the extra income to do the renovation.
\nThere weren\u2019t breakfasts on Saturday and Sunday mornings. I certainly had a good social life but it was important to me that I made the best out of this first opportunity that I possibly could.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 When you sold to your brother, what did you do after that? Did you go on to buy another property?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes. The next property I bought was in Kedron. I still own that one. Then from there, we\u2019ve gone on to do a variety of different things. Some were buy and hold; some were buy and renovate. Our strategy for our personal home has been to leapfrog ourselves. We would buy something, renovate it, and then use the equity or sell to move up to the next level of home. We did that until we got into our current home, which as my husband says, he\u2019s going out of this one in a box.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019ve heard that before. You probably have, too.
\nBased on what your experience is now, if someone wanted to get started in property investing today and they were listening in to this, what advice would you give them? What\u2019s the best advice you could give them?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 I think the thing to be really aware of is that owning property isn\u2019t a right in Australia. Owning property is something that you have to work hard for, and you do have to sacrifice for it. You can\u2019t have everything, and you can\u2019t always have everything that you want in the first property that you purchase.
\nI think the people who are prepared to look at it as a journey rather than a destination are the people who I see actually taking action and building their wealth through property, and having those milestone moments where they are working towards whatever it is \u2013 whether it\u2019s the dream home or an income-producing portfolio or something that they can leverage. It\u2019s probably having the kindness to yourself to say, \u201cI can\u2019t do that and have the property that I want, so which way am I going to go?\u201d and then getting the balance right.
\nWe had a client once who saved $210,000 in cash to buy a property, and we bought for them down in Edens Landing about 10 years ago, but their sacrifice was enormous. They lived in a squalid one-bedroom unit in West End for four years I think it was, three of them, to save that money. That\u2019s extreme sacrifice.
\nIt\u2019s finding the right balance that you still have a life but have the ability to build for your future.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 What\u2019s the best property deal you\u2019ve ever done either for yourself or for someone else?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 There are two actually. One of ours was opportunistic. I say to people, have a plan in mind but always be open to something that pops up that you could not possibly have expected. For us, that unexpected one came in the form of a splitter block in Wavell Heights.
\nWe\u2019d actually looked at it, researched it, and recommended it to a client. That client happened to be traveling overseas at the time and he said, \u201cI just can\u2019t commit to this right now. I\u2019m probably a week away.\u201d And I said, \u201cThey\u2019re presenting offers tonight. It\u2019s multiple offer. Do you mind if we buy it?\u201d He said, \u201cNo. Go for it. Great. Good on you.\u201d
\nAgain, we stand behind our recommendations, and we purchased that one with a view to knocking down a post-war and putting two new builds on it to hold. And as things turned out, the neighbors wanted to buy it, so we were actually able to negotiate a sale for the neighbors that was in excess of the profit that we would have made from doing the job. It was one of those really unusual opportunistic type things, but change your plans to make it fit.
\nThe other one would be that we purchased a property in Toowong for a client about six years ago. It was a big block of land \u2013 809 square meters. The land value on that was only $10,000 less than what we paid and it had a four-bedroom Queenslander. It needed a bit of work but the land content was really high. That\u2019s been, without doubt, the highest performing property that we\u2019ve purchased for a client from a growth point of view.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Was that on two lots?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes. It is a character residential area, so they can\u2019t knock the house down, but it is possible to put a couple of townhouses in the back yard. So there are various options there.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Speaking of that, what do you believe is best \u2013 investment in apartments or houses?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 We\u2019re very cautious about apartments in Brisbane, and I know certainly in some of the other states, as well. It\u2019s supply and demand in equity. Apartments are often purchased by investors and\/or first-home buyers as a lower entry point for getting into the market.
\nWith the amount of supply that\u2019s coming on the market, we are already starting to see that rents are being affected. There is a lot for tenants to choose from at the moment, and they are very strong in their position to negotiate. Rents are actually dropping quite quickly in the unit market, and because of supply, prices are not increasing.
\nWe\u2019re very cautious about units. I\u2019m always a big believer in land content. It is the land that appreciates, and if you\u2019re a capital growth investor, the most value in the land that you can get \u2013 not necessarily the biggest size land but the most value you can get \u2013 and the best position for a capital growth investor is where I would be focusing my energies.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Well said. What\u2019s the most common question you get asked about property, and how do you answer that?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 Actually, I get asked a lot for positively geared property. And unless you have quite a large deposit, it\u2019s just not feasible in Brisbane and certainly not in the other states, either. The average yield in Brisbane at the moment is about 3.6% on a house. I think positively geared as a strategy is something that people get a little bit focused on without really understanding what it is that they\u2019re trying to achieve.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 It\u2019s more an outcome actually, not a strategy.
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 It is, isn\u2019t it? It happens over time. Once we actually bring that back and talk to them about \u201cWhat it is that you\u2019re trying to achieve? How long are you looking to hold this for? What\u2019s your risk profile?\u201d all of those factors, then we can help people to get a better understanding of how property might \u2013 or might not \u2013 help them achieve those goals.
\nProperty isn\u2019t necessarily going to achieve the goals that you think it\u2019s going to achieve. It\u2019s not a be all and end all.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I just want to round out our chat to Meighan with some of your thoughts about advice. What advice are you going to give your children about property? What will you tell them?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 I\u2019ll be talking to them about the fundamentals quite early. They know that Mommy goes to look at houses on Saturdays and bids at auctions and helps people buy property. So the fundamentals of what that means and that property is something to work towards and that you can make work for you will probably be the basis of the advice that I have for them.
\nI think with them, it\u2019ll be that they\u2019ll be along for the ride because we\u2019re continuing to purchase both residential and commercial. For us personally, they see that in action, and I hope that that will help them to have a really good understanding of what might work for them.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 And the best and worst piece of advice you\u2019ve ever been given about property?
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 Back when I bought that first property, a boyfriend at the time said that his uncle had said to him, \u201cBuy the cheapest car that you can and the most expensive property that you can afford, because the car depreciates and the property appreciates.\u201d That has stuck with me for a long time. I think that that helped me to get the action going. It was just one of those things that clicked with me. It resonated quite strongly.
\nThe worst advice? Certainly people who think that they\u2019re going to buy a property and quickly flip it over and make a profit out of it where they\u2019re paying someone else. I would say a bit of a scary piece of advice that I got early was to buy, renovate, and sell.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Great talking to you. Meighan Hetherington has been my guest. Meighan is from Property Pursuit buyer\u2019s agents in Brisbane. The website is PropertyPursuit.com.au.
\nMeighan, thank you so much for your time.
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 I am looking forward to a wonderful 2017.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 I know what you mean. Thank you. Talk to you again soon.
\nMeighan:<\/b>\u00a0 Thanks, Kevin. Bye.
\n <\/p>\n

Where is the smart money going in 2017? – Andrew Mirams<\/h2>\n

Kevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Earlier in the show I was talking to Cate Bakos, and we asked her to reflect on the comments she made about this time last year about what it would be like at the end of 2016 \/ start of 2017, which is where we are right now. Well, here\u2019s another one, because this time last year, I spoke to Andrew Mirams from Intuitive Finance, and Andrew joins us once again.
\nAndrew, Happy New Year. Good to have you on the show. Nice to talk to you, mate.
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Good day, Kevin. Happy New Year to you, too, and all the listeners.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Okay. Let\u2019s remind you what you said this time last year about the 2016 market.
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Melbourne and Sydney have enjoyed a couple of years of pretty good markets. Obviously, Sydney\u2019s had a couple of great years. Melbourne still appears to be really strong, and that\u2019s underpinned by our population growth and employment, which still seems to be quite strong in our state. It seems to be similar in Sydney, and the market seems to be still okay there.
\nAnd I think that probably Brisbane might be something where some money starts to go because people look at fundamentals and think, based on a yield, it appears to be undervalued, and there might be some opportunities in Brisbane in 2016.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Gee, mate, I thought you were pretty spot on there. You highlighted Brisbane as the place for opportunity. Did it reach the sort of heights you thought it would, Andrew?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 It probably didn\u2019t. But, again, if you compare that again across to Melbourne and Sydney, who have had two or three years of extraordinary growth, it probably did nothing in Melbourne and probably Sydney and Brisbane. The markets are going to start to disjoint themselves and there are going to be markets within markets with the development boom that\u2019s happening across those three states.
\nSydney is probably still a little under supplied, but I think Melbourne and Brisbane potentially in those development markets might have some grief coming into 2017 and 2018 even.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 What do you think that will do to some of the more established markets in, say, Melbourne and Brisbane? Will they continue to improve, do you think?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 I think there\u2019s always a flight to quality. I think the apartment market has been quite strong over the last few years. Now, just the supply and demand issue, I think, is going to see that dampen quite a bit, and there\u2019ll be a flight back to land and where people can actually develop or hold the land. As we know buildings, depreciate whereas land over the long term tends to appreciate as it becomes scarcer and harder to get ahold of.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes. We mentioned earlier in the show, too, about the APRA restrictions during the year. You\u2019re much closer to that than anyone, being in the finance world. What\u2019s your impressions of that? What impact did it have on the market, and did you see it coming?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Look, it\u2019s been happening for 18 months or so now \u2013 probably two years behind the scenes \u2013 and there\u2019s still some work to go. I don\u2019t think we\u2019re going to see it get any easier anytime soon.
\nKevin, we\u2019re at record low interest rates, and there has to be some caution that goes with that, I guess, because we don\u2019t want people over-committing and things like that. So I think APRA\u2019s still got a bit to play out. They\u2019re now talking about commercial land and development finance and just making sure developers aren\u2019t over-extended as well as our consumers and people not getting their fingers burnt.
\nI think we\u2019ll continue to see the banks incrementally raising interest rates, even if we were to get maybe an RBA decrease. I\u2019m not sure that we will, but there\u2019s still some pundits saying we might get another one or two quarter-percent decreases through 2017. I\u2019m not sure, I\u2019m not convinced, but I think they\u2019re at such a low rate now that we won\u2019t see much change.
\nBut I think you\u2019ll see the banks, as they\u2019ve done through 2016, continue to move and differentiate between owner-occupier lending, which started to wane at the end of 2016\u2026 It started to drop off and the investors really started to come back into the market. And I think that what that is is opportunity: those who have money and opportunity to buy are still interested in buying into the markets and taking advantage of good opportunities.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Andrew, are you seeing any defaults, particularly in that off-the-plan marketplace? Anyone can\u2019t settle?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Yes, it is happening. I think 2017 and 2018 is really when a lot of these developments in the larger scale, a lot of them are going to come to market, as well.
\nThere are a couple of things though, Kevin. Your Australian investors are still going to be able to get money subject to the APRA restrictions, but through 2016, we also saw the banks withdraw pretty much finance to non-residents, and they\u2019ve even restricted quite significantly finance availability to our Australian ex-pats overseas, depending on where they\u2019re earning their income and how they\u2019re assessed.
\nA lot of those people are the ones who have bought these off-the-plans. Non-residents get their Foreign Investment Review Board approval, they have to buy new properties. And I suspect now with the issue of getting money into the country, particularly out of China, and then also being able to access finance over here, we might see more and more defaults happen through the course of this year and next. It\u2019s just going to put a damper on everyone in that market because if there are fire sales of apartments in blocks, then that\u2019s actually what the value becomes.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 You\u2019re helping investors all around Australia. Where\u2019s the smart money going? What are they talking to you about? Which markets?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 I still think in Melbourne and Brisbane, it\u2019s certainly now wanting to get hold of land, so it\u2019s getting the opportunity for that inner ring, good opportunities to develop in the future or put a second property on or not that high-density living, but now that medium-density living. Houses will be always be popular with land.
\nSydney is still attractive for the apartment market because they\u2019re still not building enough to meet the market. There\u2019s that inner ring and then the outer west and places like that that have a real over-supply of the units out there.
\nWhere people want to live in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane is still what\u2019s going to be popular, where possible, I think through 2017, wherever you can, if you can buy something on a tiny bit of land \u2013 whether it be a house, a townhouse, a unit, or something like that \u2013 I think is going to be the most popular selection.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Okay. Sum it up for me, mate. What do you think you\u2019re going to be saying this time next year about 2017?
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 I think we still will have had a pretty reasonable market, while we still have people in employment and low interest rates and there\u2019s a supply and demand. There are probably less properties for sale that are highly desirable, which is creating that supply and demand issue.
\nSo I still think our markets will be in a pretty good state by the end of 2017. Let\u2019s hope so, anyway.
\nKevin:<\/b>\u00a0 Good on you, mate. Nice talking to you. Andrew Mirams from Intuitive Finance. We\u2019ll talk again soon, mate.
\nAndrew:<\/b>\u00a0 Thanks, Kevin. All the best.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We are going to kick the year off with some very sound advice from Michael Yardney as he talks about the 12 important lessons for property investors in 2017. Smart investors are always learning and undertaking personal development. The property markets are dynamic, so dynamic…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":9863,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,11,13,17,24],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-10263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment","category-shows","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nThe experts predictions for 2016 \u2013 how accurate were they? - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/the-experts-predictions-for-2016-how-accurate-were-they\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The experts predictions for 2016 \u2013 how accurate were they? - Realty Talk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We are going to kick the year off with some very sound advice from Michael Yardney as he talks about the 12 important lessons for property investors in 2017. 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