{"id":10168,"date":"2016-12-18T10:00:15","date_gmt":"2016-12-17T23:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realestatetalk.com.au\/?p=10168"},"modified":"2016-12-18T10:00:15","modified_gmt":"2016-12-17T23:00:15","slug":"sydney-and-melbourne-set-to-slow-down-josh-masters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/sydney-and-melbourne-set-to-slow-down-josh-masters\/","title":{"rendered":"Sydney and Melbourne set to slow down – Josh Masters"},"content":{"rendered":"

 
\nJosh Masters<\/strong> says that Sydney and Melbourne markets are likely to slow down in 2017 \u2013 but by how much and what are going to be the areas to invest in next year?\u00a0 He tells us.
\n <\/p>\n

Transcript:<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Kevin:\u00a0 <\/b>2017 could just be the year that we see Sydney and Melbourne markets slow down. That\u2019s according to Josh Masters, who joins me.
\nJosh, you don\u2019t have a continuing confidence in those two cap city markets?
\nJosh:\u00a0 <\/b>Look, <\/b>I think there has been a lot of growth. Over the last four years, we\u2019ve seen extensive growth over both those capital cities, but it is really unprecedented to this level. While there are some predictions from SQM: Louis Christopher came out and said we\u2019re probably going to see another 8%, 9%, 10%, 11% come into these markets
\nI think that may be true on the back of low interest rates, but it\u2019s going to be very patchy, and I think it\u2019s going to be really focused on the affordable points in those marketplaces, because people just can\u2019t keep paying these sort of prices.
\nEven though interest rates are at current lows, wages growth hasn\u2019t really done anything for some time, so there is only so much that we can pay out, and they are looking for value right now.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What do you see as some of the other challenges for property investors who want to continue to grow their portfolio next year?
\nJosh:\u00a0 <\/b>I think overall, it\u2019s going to be very patchy across Australia. Investors are going to have to be very savvy with where they\u2019re putting their money, obviously. The West Coast is still suffering a bit on the downturn from mining, Perth and Darwin.
\nBrisbane has been one of those cities that we\u2019ve all been watching very avidly, hoping that we\u2019re going to see some growth, but again, we\u2019re really only seeing growth in the owner-occupier market in the housing market, which has been quite consistent and quite popular. I actually think the owner-occupier space is probably a key area for us moving forward into next year.
\nWe\u2019ve also seen some of the smaller cities coming up: Canberra, Hobart doing exceptionally well coming off from the bottom. Even though they are very small markets, so there is a higher element of risk there as opposed to your larger metros, for those people who are willing to get into those markets, they may be able to cherry-pick some of the growth that will happen in Australia in the next 12 months.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What do you think will be the standout states? We\u2019ve seen WA and Northern Territory really struggle in 2016. What do you think will be their story at the end of 2017?
\nJosh:\u00a0 <\/b>I always liken the market to an ocean liner. You can invest in the stock market and it\u2019s like sitting on a jet ski \u2013 you zip up and down \u2013 but the ocean liner is the property market. It takes a long time to get going, and it takes a long time to slow down.
\nIt\u2019s the same with Perth and Darwin. Even though we\u2019re looking at quite high vacancy rates there, high unemployment, the market is not doing very well. It\u2019s going to take some time to turn around, and we certainly haven\u2019t hit bottom.
\nSo, I don\u2019t foresee those states doing much better in the next 12 months. Fingers crossed, we will see them bottom out, but I don\u2019t see an uptick in those western states.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>What do you think about the type of investment property people should be looking at? It\u2019s very simple to say between units and houses, but do you have a preference?
\nJosh:\u00a0 <\/b>I get that question asked often, Kevin. I think people throw them all into the barrel and say, \u201cIt must be a house or a unit.\u201d It really depends. For example, if you go to the outer areas of Sydney, I\u2019d be looking at a house, because I\u2019m aiming for investors. The predominant market out there is housing, and that\u2019s what renters want.
\nHowever, if I come into the inner city, the inner 10-kilometer radius, I\u2019m going to be looking for affordability, something that renters want to get into at a reasonable price, and it has to be units. I just can\u2019t afford to get into houses at that level.
\nI don\u2019t think the house or unit conversation is that relevant for investors these days. It really depends on what their affordability is and what is attracting investors in that particular marketplace where they\u2019re looking.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>I\u2019m talking to Josh Masters from BuySide.com.au.
\nWere there any surprises for you during 2016 \u2013 things that you didn\u2019t see coming, or anything that stood out for you that we learned from?
\nJosh:\u00a0 <\/b>I think we\u2019d all have to stand back and say that we didn\u2019t expect Sydney and Melbourne to continue the way they have, but that really has been on the back of this low interest rate environment. People simply have more money in their pockets to spend on mortgages, which obviously Australians love to do.
\nFrom a professional point of view, one of the things that we have seen is on the rental market \u2013 and we do predominantly focus on investments. The rental market in Brisbane and Melbourne inner CBD areas, as we know, high unit supply, oversupply coming into the marketplaces.
\nWe really saw that affect the rental market even out to a 10-kilometer radius, attracting a lot of renters into the inner CBD areas because they could get a lot of stock there at a very affordable price, and it\u2019s really affected the vacancy rates all the way out to that 10-kilometer radius.
\nWe\u2019ve seen vacancy rates \u2013 especially in Brisbane \u2013 go from 2% to 3% across the board within that circle. I think that was really unexpected, because we were looking at good, solid townhouses that were performing well, and now they\u2019re looking at three- to four-week vacancy rates.
\nIt does really hammer home how much unit oversupply can affect particular markets. Now we\u2019re starting to see a little bit popping up in Sydney as well, in the Hills District and working down to Parramatta, especially in Mascot and the Zetland area, as well.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Fast forward to this time next year, 2017 at the end, at Christmas time, if we\u2019re talking again, what do you think you\u2019ll be saying about the year that has just gone, Josh?
\nJosh:\u00a0 <\/b>Even though we\u2019ve had the low interest rate environment, I really think Sydney and Melbourne will be topping out coming into 2017. I think there will be some discounts on inner city apartments coming.
\nWe all know the oversupply issue is there. It is becoming more predominant coming into 2017 and especially 2018 when a lot of that stock will be released. So, I think we will see some discounting in that area.
\nPersonally, for me, I think the outperformers will be those owner-occupied stock in the affordable states. Brisbane is definitely on the cards for us. We\u2019re seeing some really good interest coming there from the affordability point of view and especially from the owner-occupier market. And potentially Canberra and Hobart moving forward, although they are the smaller states.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Any particular areas, say, in Brisbane that you\u2019ll be looking at?
\nJosh:\u00a0 <\/b>Definitely. We\u2019re particularly focused on that 5- to 10-kilometer radius. We are looking in the north and south side. To give you some of the juicy suburbs, Stafford Heights we\u2019re very keen on, and Kedron. Down in the south side, we\u2019re looking at Tarragindi \u2013 very popular down there \u2013 Holland Park West, even to Camp Hill, those places that have great owner-occupier stock that is still affordable for people from Sydney and Melbourne looking at those areas. They love that sort of stuff.
\nEven out towards that south-southwestern corridor, out towards Ipswich, there is some great value happening out there and very high yields, so it is very attractive for investors right now.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Good to spend some time with you, Josh. All the best for what\u2019s left of 2016 and into 2017. I look forward to talking to you then.
\nJosh:\u00a0 <\/b>My pleasure, Kevin. Thank you.
\nKevin:\u00a0 <\/b>Josh Masters from BuySide.com.au. Thanks again, mate. Talk to you next year.
\nJosh:\u00a0 <\/b>Sounds good, Kevin. Thanks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Josh Masters says that Sydney and Melbourne markets are likely to slow down in 2017 \u2013 but by how much and what are going to be the areas to invest in next year?\u00a0 He tells us.   Transcript: Kevin:\u00a0 2017 could just be the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":176692471,"featured_media":10171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34,10,11,13,36,17,22,25],"tags":[101],"class_list":["post-10168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-topic","category-kevin-turner-sponsored-channels","category-kevin-update","category-latest-story","category-property-investment-topic","category-property-investment","category-research-topic","category-sponsored-channels","tag-podcast"],"yoast_head":"\nSydney and Melbourne set to slow down - Josh Masters - Realty Talk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/channels.realty.com.au\/realtytalk\/sydney-and-melbourne-set-to-slow-down-josh-masters\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sydney and Melbourne set to slow down - 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