The auction market is currently transitioning from its seasonal peak, with auction volume set to decline significantly as the industry approaches the end of year slowdown. The data indicates that the past week represented the likely peak of the spring and early summer auction season, characterized by high volumes but also a notable softening in clearance rates.

The Recent Peak Volume

Last week, the combined capital cities saw 3,488 homes taken to auction. This represented a substantial increase of 17.7% on the volume from the prior week and marked the busiest week for auctions since March 2024.

This peak activity was heavily driven by the major capital markets:

• Melbourne hosted 1,682 auctions, which was up 24.1% on the previous week’s volume. This was the highest volume recorded in Melbourne since the final week of October, prior to the Melbourne Cup Racing Carnival (which had 1,836 auctions).

• Sydney held 1,263 auctions, representing a 10.8% rise on the prior week. This volume was the highest number of auctions held in Sydney since the week before Easter earlier this year.

Among the smaller capitals, Brisbane hosted the most auctions with 214 homes going under the hammer, while Adelaide saw 189 homes auctioned, a 29.5% jump in volume from the previous week. The ACT held 113 auctions.

Projected Decline

Following this peak, the total volume of auctions across the capital cities is set to reduce immediately. Forecasts indicate that the number of auctions will fall this week to around 3,170. Furthermore, volumes are expected to drop below 3,000 through the second week of December as the end-of-year deceleration takes effect.

Accompanying Softening in Clearance Rates

The decline in anticipated volume comes amid a continuing trend towards softer auction outcomes that has been observed since the start of spring. Last week, despite the high volume, the combined capitals preliminary auction clearance rate slipped lower, down 1 percentage point on the previous week, landing at 68.2%.

This 68.2% rate marks the second week in a row where the preliminary clearance rate has fallen under the 70% threshold. Crucially, the preliminary rate is now below the decade average of 68.6% and is well below the spring season average of 72.1%.

Both major cities experienced a dip in success rates:

• Sydney’s preliminary clearance rate fell to 65.2%, a drop of 3.3 percentage points from the week prior, making it the lowest preliminary clearance rate since the week ending June 8 earlier this year.

• Melbourne’s successful result rate was 68.6%, down 1.1 percentage points on the week prior, representing its lowest preliminary clearance rate since the week ending November 2nd.

In contrast to the major capitals, Adelaide saw a successful result in 85.2% of its auctions, which was by far the highest rate of any capital and a solid 12.6 percentage point rise on the week prior. Brisbane’s clearance rate of 71.5% was roughly in line with its spring average of 71.7%.

The anticipated decline in auction volume reflects a standard seasonal contraction as the year concludes, following a period of high listing activity that coincided with the softest overall market clearance rate seen since earlier in the year.